Daily Picks

Canterbury Park Picks & Predictions — June 25, 2026

Thursday, June 25, 20268 racesCanterbury Park

It's a beautiful Thursday afternoon at Canterbury Park — partly cloudy skies, 74 degrees, and a full eight-race card to work through. Conditions are about as good as it gets in the Twin Cities in late June, and with several turf races on the slate, that firm-to-good going should favor horses with clean outside runs and a bit of kick in the stretch.

The card opens with a pair of short-distance quarter-horse-style maiden sprints before transitioning to a mix of claiming, allowance, and starter optional claiming routes on both dirt and turf. Three of those races are free for all TrackWiz readers, and the back half of the card is where the real meat is for subscribers. Eight races, plenty of angles, and a few spots where the morning line looks beatable — let's dig in.

Best Bets

Race 1

10:10 PM EDT

Maiden · 350 yd · Dirt

A maiden quarter-horse sprint at 350 yards where TrackWiz ratings tell a clear story — one horse grades out significantly above the field, though first-out maiden sprints always carry an element of the unknown.

win5La India de CapoML 4/1

La India de Capo tops the TrackWiz ratings at 85.62, a full 21 points clear of the next-best horse in the field — that's a substantial gap in a maiden sprint where first impressions matter. Trainer Haley N. Hobbs saddles this one alongside stablemate Z Rexx, and having two horses in the race suggests a confident barn. Fernando Fonseca-Soto gets the call, and at 4/1 on the morning line, there's legitimate value here given how far ahead the ratings project this filly.

place6Max BrandML 7/2

Max Brand checks in at 64.17 on the TrackWiz scale, second-best among the Jason L. Olmstead trio in this race. Trainer Olmstead has three runners going here — always worth noting as a barn that clearly feels good about its stock — and Ryder Olmstead in the irons suggests a confident family connection. At 7/2, the morning line is fair, and landing a place check in a thin maiden field is a reasonable ask.

show2Relentless EffortML 5/2

Relentless Effort rates third in the field at 55.02 and is one of three Olmstead barn entries, giving that operation a powerful grip on the bottom of the exacta and trifecta. Armando Alvidrez rides, a jockey with clear familiarity with the operation. In a six-horse maiden sprint where the top two choices should dominate, slotting Relentless Effort in for third in exotic plays makes plenty of sense.

Race 2

10:38 PM EDT

Maiden · 250 yd · Dirt

Eight maiden sprinters go 250 yards — as short as it gets — and one horse's TrackWiz rating stands head and shoulders above the rest in what could be a quick and decisive result.

win3Hawk Yea Im FastML 9/2

Hawk Yea Im Fast posts a TrackWiz rating of 84.90, nearly 27 points ahead of the next horse in this field — in a two-furlong blast, that kind of edge is hard to overcome. Trainer Haley N. Hobbs and jockey Fernando Fonseca-Soto are the same combination we liked in Race 1, and if that barn is rolling, backing them again makes plenty of sense. The 9/2 morning line actually offers value given the ratings gap, making this one of the more straightforward win plays on the card.

place1OurrelentlessdynastyML 5/2

Ourrelentlessdynasty leads the Olmstead contingent here with a 57.50 rating, just edging out stablemate Jess Get There Fast for the second spot in our ratings. Ryder Olmstead rides for the family barn, and with three horses entered, the Olmstead operation clearly expects to be competitive. At 5/2, there's not a ton of overlay, but the place spot in a maiden sprint this short is a reasonable safety net in your exotics.

show2Jess Get There FastML 3/1

Jess Get There Fast rates nearly identically to Ourrelentlessdynasty at 56.67, making these two Olmstead runners essentially interchangeable for show purposes. Armando Alvidrez handles the riding duties here, the same jock who pilots Relentless Effort in Race 1. At 3/1 odds, including Jess Get There Fast under the Olmstead umbrella in trifectas is smart ticket-building in a field where the barn controls multiple pieces.

Race 3

11:08 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A tight claiming mile on the dirt where the top two horses in our ratings are separated by less than a point — this sets up as a genuine two-horse battle with a clear speed figure edge over the rest of the field.

win4Mongolian ChampML 8/5

Mongolian Champ edges to the top of our ratings at 89.12 and backs it up with the field's best average speed figure of 54. Trainer Tim P. Padilla sends him out at 8/5 on the morning line, a price that reflects public confidence, and Constantino Roman has a live mount here. At 10% career win rate in claiming company, this horse knows how to finish the job, and the combination of top rating plus top speed figure makes him our strongest selection in the early going.

place1Thirsty VisionML 2/1

Thirsty Vision is only a half-point behind Mongolian Champ in our ratings at 88.54, making this one of the tightest 1-2 gaps we'll see all day. Manuel Americano rides for trainer Jose Silva Jr., a combination that surfaces multiple times today — always worth respecting when a trainer trusts the same jock card-wide. The 2/1 morning line is fair, and if Mongolian Champ hits any traffic at a mile, Thirsty Vision is right there to pick up the pieces.

show3ArromaxML 9/2

Arromax rates third in the field at 61.64 with an average speed figure of 52, which puts him clearly behind the top two but well ahead of the remaining pair. Alonso Quinonez rides for trainer Edgar Espinoza, and at 9/2, this horse offers a touch of value in a race where the top two horses are expected to do the heavy lifting. Including Arromax in trifecta tickets as the show leg is a cost-effective way to go deep.

The three free races cover a nice cross-section of today's card. Races 1 and 2 are maiden sprints at 350 yards and 250 yards respectively — short, explosive affairs where gate speed and early quickness are everything. La India de Capo (Race 1, 4/1 morning line) and Hawk Yea Im Fast (Race 2, 9/2) both topped our TrackWiz ratings in their respective fields, and in races this short there's rarely time to make up ground — so if our picks break clean, they're tough to beat.

Race 3 is the headliner of the free slate: a one-mile dirt claiming route where Mongolian Champ comes in as the 8/5 morning-line favorite and posted the highest TrackWiz rating among today's free picks at 89.12. The mile distance on dirt suits closers who can settle early and pounce on a tiring pace — and the mild, dry conditions today shouldn't present any surprises on the surface. This one looks like the most straightforward best bet on the card.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

11:38 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

This Starter Optional Claiming mile on the turf features a significant ratings standout — but at 9/5 on the morning line, the favorite's value is already baked in, making the supporting cast worth a closer look.

win5Athens MoonML 9/5

Athens Moon dominates our ratings here at 88.83, a full 22-plus points clear of the second-best horse. Trainer Jose Silva Jr. and jockey Manuel Americano team up again — a combination that's all over today's card — and the 9/5 morning line reflects a legitimate contender. The average speed figure of 54 on turf is in line with the field's better runners, and a 16% career win rate is respectable in this company. This is a horse you structure your exotics around.

place2ZoffarelliML 7/2

Zoffarelli rates second in the field at 66.35 and carries the highest average speed figure in the race at 56, which is an intriguing wrinkle — this one may be closer to Athens Moon in raw ability than the ratings gap suggests. Luis A. Fuentes rides for trainer Ruben Fuentes, a jockey-trainer combo that functions as a family operation and often sends live horses. At 7/2 morning line, Zoffarelli is a solid place and exacta anchor underneath the chalk.

show1Mendelssohn JoyML 5/1

Mendelssohn Joy checks in at 64.17 in our ratings and brings a legitimate 18% career win rate — the best in this field — suggesting a horse that consistently competes near the front. Trainer Guadalupe J. Mata turns to Sachin Parris for the ride, and at 5/1 on the morning line, there's mild value here if you're constructing a tri. The win rate alone justifies keeping Mendelssohn Joy in your exotics as a live show piece.

Race 5

12:08 AM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A competitive Allowance Optional Claiming mile on the dirt where the top two horses are separated by just 1.59 rating points — the real story here is the morning line favorite isn't our top-rated horse.

win5Mr. WhoML 7/2

Mr. Who is our top-rated horse at 86.35 despite going off at 7/2 on the morning line, which makes this an overlay situation worth exploiting. Manuel Americano rides for trainer Jose Silva Jr. — a combo that's clearly comfortable together today — and a 23% career win rate at the allowance level signals a horse that competes on a consistent basis. The average speed figure of 54 puts him right in the mix pace-wise, and when our top-rated horse is available at plus money, that's a value flag.

place1Little TroubleML 2/1

Little Trouble is the morning line favorite at 2/1 and for good reason — a 43% career win rate is eye-popping and the best on today's entire card by a wide margin. Trainer Jose Silva Jr. doubles up here with both the favorite and our win pick, which tells you something about the depth of that barn's current string. At a 84.76 rating, she's only a shade behind Mr. Who, and if the pace unfolds favorably, she'll be very tough to beat for a piece.

show3Sir ExtonML 9/5

Sir Exton is the 9/5 morning line choice despite a more modest 16% career win rate, suggesting the public is leaning on workout or recent form information. Trainer Robert N. Cline and jockey Kelsi Harr have a working relationship, and the 69.07 TrackWiz rating makes Sir Exton a legitimate third wheel in this race. In an allowance mile where pace can get hot early, a closer type rated 69 makes a sensible exotic hedge.

Race 6

12:38 AM EDT

Claiming · 7 1/2 fur · Turf

Seven and a half furlongs on the turf brings a full eight-horse field where the morning line favorite isn't our top pick — Mr Fabricator grades out well above his 4/1 price and presents genuine value.

win8Mr FabricatorML 4/1

Mr Fabricator tops our ratings at 85.62 and pairs it with a 26% career win rate — the best among the serious contenders — and an average speed figure of 55, best in the field. Manuel Americano rides for Jose Silva Jr., a combination that has been sharp all card, and at 4/1 morning line, this is an overlay given the numbers. In a claiming turf route, a horse with above-average class, the top speed figure, and a strong win rate at this level is exactly what you want to back.

place4Hurricane CloudML 2/1

Hurricane Cloud holds the 2/1 morning line and rates 64.49 in our system with a solid 20% career win rate. Trainer Jose Silva Jr. again — this barn is having a day — and Fausto Henrique Da Silva gets the mount. The 2/1 price actually makes Hurricane Cloud a reasonable exacta partner underneath Mr Fabricator, as the Silva barn controlling two of the top choices in a race often leads to a productive outcome.

show3StradivarianML 7/2

Stradivarian rates 62.59 and is nearly identical to Hurricane Cloud in our model — a virtual dead heat for second and third billing. Trainer Edgar Espinoza goes with Constantino Roman in the irons, and a 15% career win rate is consistent at this level. At 7/2 morning line, Stradivarian isn't offering massive overlay, but with a pace likely to be contested on this turf sprint distance, a horse with consistent figures and a reliable trainer is worth slotting into trifectas.

Race 7

1:08 AM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A six-furlong dirt claiming sprint with a compelling duel at the top of our ratings — two horses separated by less than two points, both well clear of the field, setting up a potential match race.

win3Aint BehavinML 2/1

Aint Behavin leads our ratings at 88.54 and brings the field's second-highest average speed figure of 56 — matching G Dawg but with a significantly stronger overall rating profile. Manuel Americano takes the mount for trainer Jose Silva Jr., the standout jockey-trainer combination of today's card, and the 2/1 morning line reflects genuine favorite status. An 11% career win rate in claiming sprints is on the modest side, but the raw figures here are the story — this horse has the tools.

place1Lemon SohnML 5/2

Lemon Sohn rates just behind at 86.96 and is only a point and a half off Aint Behavin, which tells you this horse is fully capable of reversing the result. Eduardo Gallardo rides for trainer Edgar Espinoza in what looks like a key second-start setup for a horse whose 6% career win rate suggests the wins come in clusters rather than consistently. The 5/2 morning line makes Lemon Sohn a natural exacta partner, and if Aint Behavin gets into any trouble in the first turn, this one is right there.

show4G DawgML 4/1

G Dawg rates third at 59.30 but shares that 56 average speed figure with Aint Behavin — the raw speed is there, even if the overall rating lags behind. Jose Riquelme rides for Bennie L. Woolley Jr., and a 9% career win rate in a six-furlong sprint isn't alarming. At 4/1, G Dawg is the logical third wheel in trifectas behind the two standouts — fast enough to hang around for a piece of the money.

Race 8

1:38 AM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 5 fur · Turf

A wide-open ten-horse Starter Optional Claiming sprint on the turf where our top-rated horse has real value at 4/1 — and the supporting cast offers several live exotics angles for players who like digging deeper.

win1Pat's Paddock PickML 4/1

Pat's Paddock Pick leads the field with a 85.62 TrackWiz rating and is backed by the most impressive career win rate of the serious contenders at 27% — in a ten-horse field, that kind of consistency matters. The 57 average speed figure is also the best in the race, suggesting this horse has the raw ability to fire on the right surface at the right distance. Manuel Americano rides for trainer Esteban Martinez at 4/1 morning line, and when your top-rated horse with the top speed figure is available at plus money, that's a green light value play.

place9High ProbabilityML 6/1

High Probability checks in at 77.41 in our ratings and matches a 56 average speed figure — strong credentials in a competitive field. Eduardo Gallardo rides for trainer Troy A. Bethke, and a 15% career win rate shows this horse knows how to hit the board. At 6/1, High Probability is the most compelling value play among our picks — a horse with a top-tier rating and solid speed figures available at morning line odds that suggest the public is underestimating it.

show8Dr. PerryML 9/2

Dr. Perry rates 73.78 and is third on our board in a field where the drop-off after the top three is steep. Alonso Quinonez gets the ride for trainer Tim P. Padilla, and while the 12% career win rate is modest, the 55 average speed figure is competitive at this sprint distance. At 9/2, Dr. Perry is a reasonable show anchor and trifecta piece — consistent enough not to embarrass, but probably not the one to beat on top.

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Bottom line: Mongolian Champ headlines a solid free slate, and the turf-heavy premium card offers real opportunity for bettors willing to go deeper. La India de Capo and Hawk Yea Im Fast give us quick-hit action early, and then it's Mongolian Champ's mile to lose in Race 3. For the full picture — pace projections, exotic plays, and every premium pick — subscribers have it all waiting. Good luck out there today.

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