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Belterra Park Picks & Predictions — September 18, 2026

September 18, 20268 racesAll Belterra Park picks

It's a Friday afternoon at Belterra Park and the racing gods are cooperating — partly cloudy skies and a comfortable 81°F make for near-ideal conditions on both the dirt and the turf course today. Eight races are on the slate, and this card has a little bit of everything: maiden claimers getting their first real test, a pair of stakes events, and some claiming races where trainer angles and class moves can mean the difference between a winner's circle photo and a long walk back.

The turf is the story worth watching. With two turf routes and a short turf sprint on the card, pace scenarios on the grass could get tactical in a hurry. Firm-to-good going tends to reward horses that can settle and pounce late, so we'll be paying close attention to how these fields set up positionally. Keep that in mind as you build your tickets today.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:35 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

One horse towers over this six-furlong claiming opener, but a pair of mid-rated contenders make the exacta and trifecta worth targeting — especially with a sneaky value play sitting at 8-1.

win2Clean MachineML 7/5

Clean Machine is the class of this field and it isn't particularly close. Our TrackWiz rating of 89.42 is nearly 20 points clear of the next rival, and a career win rate of 37% is elite for the claiming ranks — meaning this horse knows how to close the deal. Jockey Laureano Sosa picks up the mount, and at 7/5 on the morning line, the market is in full agreement. The pace scenario over 6 furlongs on dirt should suit a horse with this kind of consistent speed output.

place6Artistic LaneyML 8/1

Artistic Laney at 8/1 morning line is the value piece of this ticket. A TrackWiz rating of 70.38 puts her solidly in the second tier of this field, and her average speed figure of 54 matches up respectably against the top contenders. At those odds, she's an automatic inclusion in exactas and trifectas if the favorite fires.

show3CraftedML 5/2

Crafted makes plenty of sense as the show anchor with a 69.4 rating and a 5/2 morning line that reflects legitimate respect from oddsmakers. A 21% career win rate is solid for the claiming ranks, and with an average speed of 54 he's got enough kick to hit the board in a race where the top two look set to battle it out up front.

Race 2

5:05 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A wide-open maiden claiming sprint where no horse has broken their maiden yet — Classic Tiramisu stands out on the numbers, but the field is competitive enough that the exotics could pay well.

win3Classic TiramisuML 2/1

Classic Tiramisu draws the top TrackWiz rating in this field at 88.54 — a clear separation from the rest of the maiden claiming bunch — and posts the best average speed figure in the race at 54. Trainer Richard Estvanko sends her out with Gabriel Lagunes in the irons, a pairing worth watching in maiden company. At 2/1 on the morning line, she's the deserving favorite, and in a race where no horse has won before, having the highest ceiling matters most.

place2DangereuseML 4/1

Dangereuse is the logical second choice here, holding a 67.71 TrackWiz rating that puts her comfortably ahead of the rest of the pack behind the top pick. Rafael Mojica Jr. is a familiar name in this jockey colony and gives her a confident rider. At 4/1, she's not a bad value to hit the board if Classic Tiramisu encounters any trouble.

show5IshaML 6/1

Isha rounds out the ticket at 6/1 with a 64.8 TrackWiz rating and an average speed of 54 — identical to the top pick's figure. Trainer Kelly A. Fernandez puts her in here with Carlos Jimenez up, and in a maiden field where things can get chaotic, a horse with that kind of underlying speed profile is worth including in your exotics.

Race 3

5:35 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 mi · Dirt

The betting favorite carries a perfect career record but a modest TrackWiz rating — our numbers say the public may be sleeping on a pair of stronger contenders, setting up a potential upset at playable prices.

win5Atlas FallsML 3/1

Atlas Falls is our top selection at 3/1 and holds the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 87.08 — a significant edge over trainer Timothy Hamm's pair and the morning-line favorite Bradley. A 10% career win rate in allowance company might look modest, but this is a horse whose rating suggests the best is still ahead of him, and Angel Diaz is a strong rider for this distance. The one-mile dirt trip should suit a horse with Atlas Falls' sustained speed profile.

place2KickstartML 4/1

Kickstart at 4/1 holds a 71.9 TrackWiz rating — the second-highest in the race — and trainer Robert Gorham has him in a spot where the pace should set up nicely for a closer type. An 11% career win rate in allowance company isn't flashy, but Fernando Salazar Becerra gets the call and this horse has enough class to threaten for a share of the purse.

show1My TrooperML 5/2

My Trooper is the show hedge here, boasting a 22% career win rate — the best among the non-favorite contenders — and a solid 70.86 TrackWiz rating. Trainer Larry Smith and jockey Yarmarie Correa are a familiar combo, and the 5/2 morning line suggests the market respects this runner enough to justify his inclusion on the bottom of your tickets.

Our three free races give you a solid foundation for the afternoon. Clean Machine opens the card in a 6-furlong dirt claiming sprint — at 7/5 on the morning line, the crowd agrees with our 89.42 TrackWiz rating, but that number suggests the price is fair and the confidence is real. In Race 2, Classic Tiramisu draws our eye in the maiden claimer at 5 1/2 furlongs — a 2/1 morning line in a maiden field means the connections think they have something, and our analysis backs that up with an 88.54 rating. Then Race 3 stretches out to a flat mile of dirt in an allowance, where Atlas Falls at 3/1 carries an 87.08 rating and a profile that fits the conditions nicely.

What ties these three free picks together is a common thread: each figures to be forwardly placed or at worst within striking distance on a dirt surface that should play consistently throughout the afternoon. No exotic pace meltdowns expected in these spots — straightforward, high-confidence plays to anchor your day.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:05 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

Trainer Timothy Hamm saddles three of the five starters in this turf stakes, making it a barn-dominated affair — but our TrackWiz numbers say one of his horses stands clearly above the rest.

win2ParlayML 8/5

Parlay tops this field with an 89.12 TrackWiz rating and a 25% career win rate in stakes company — both marks that command respect at any level. Rocco Bowen takes the mount, and on 1 1/16 miles of turf, a horse with that kind of consistency and class record should be forwardly positioned at every call. The 8/5 morning line is firm, but the underlying data fully supports the favoritism.

place3Our Last SongML 5/2

Our Last Song is stablemate to the top pick, also trained by Timothy Hamm, and while her 57.17 rating lags behind Parlay's, she carries a 20% career win rate that gives her legitimate board credentials. Laureano Sosa rides, and in a short field on turf, a horse from the dominant barn always deserves serious place consideration.

show1Miz KeetaML 5/1

Miz Keeta opens at 5/1 and brings a 22% career win rate — matching the top two contenders in that department — despite a TrackWiz rating of 52.33. Trainer Robert Gorham puts Erik Barbaran up, and on a 1 1/16-mile turf course, closers can find a lane late. At those odds, she's worth a show inclusion in the trifecta.

Race 5

6:35 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Eight first-time starters square off in a maiden special weight sprint — with no career win percentages to lean on, speed figures and TrackWiz ratings separate the contenders from the also-rans.

win7MindstarsML 3/1

Mindstars draws the top TrackWiz rating in this MSW field at 56.67 and posts an average speed figure of 55 — best among the horses with a recorded figure. Trainer Jose Camejo sends him out from the seven post with Santiago Gonzalez aboard, a rider who knows Belterra's tight 5.5-furlong sprint course well. At 3/1 morning line, he's priced like a horse the connections believe in.

place4Crystal SandsML 7/2

Crystal Sands sits second in our TrackWiz ratings at 55.83 and draws the four post — a favorable position in a sprint where breaking clean matters. Trainer Sergio Donjuan fields two horses today, and sending Guillermo Rodriguez out on this one signals it's the barn's featured hope. Without a recorded speed figure, there's some mystery here, but the rating supports a place effort.

show1Chiva LocaML 9/2

Chiva Loca opens at 9/2 and holds a 54.17 TrackWiz rating alongside an average speed figure of 52 — not the fastest in the field, but in a wide-open debut sprint, consistency matters. Trainer Sergio Donjuan also conditions Chiva Loca, giving this barn two shots at the win, and Carlos Jimenez is an experienced hand to have on a first-time starter.

Race 6

7:05 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 fur · Turf

A five-furlong turf claimer with a compelling pace setup — a massive gap exists between our top-rated horse and the morning-line favorite, pointing toward a potential overlay situation.

win6Karma DirectorML 5/2

Karma Director is the standout on TrackWiz ratings at 87.81 — more than 11 points clear of the next-best horse — and carries a 25% career win rate with an average speed figure of 56 that ties for best in the field. Yarmarie Correa is in the irons, and the 5/2 morning line actually represents value given the gap our numbers show between Karma Director and the market favorite Check the Grade. This is a horse who should be challenged harder to beat on the numbers.

place4El GavilanML 7/2

El Gavilan at 7/2 posts the highest average speed figure in the race at 57 and a TrackWiz rating of 76.74 — both marks that justify serious place consideration. His 12% career win rate looks modest on the surface, but the raw speed output and class metrics say he's capable of pressing for a share at these odds. Carlos Jimenez is a strong booking for trainer Kelly Fernandez.

show3Ultra ViolenceML 9/2

Ultra Violence is a tough horse to dismiss with a 50% career win rate — the highest in this field — backed by a 69.13 TrackWiz rating and average speed of 55. Trainer Karyn Wittek puts Kevin Jimenez up on what looks like a short-field specialist, and on five furlongs of turf where pace can compress quickly, a horse that knows how to win is always dangerous for the show spot.

Race 7

7:35 PM EDT

Stakes · 6 fur · Dirt

The public will key on the short-priced closers in this six-furlong dirt stakes, but our TrackWiz model identifies a double-digit morning-line shot as the most dangerous horse in the field — longshot alert.

win6SkedazzleML 12/1

Skedazzle opens at 12/1 but sits atop our TrackWiz ratings at 73.96 — a full four points ahead of the next-best horse, El Notional. A 33% career win rate is strong for stakes company, and her average speed figure of 54 keeps her competitive in a field where several contenders are at the same level. Fernando Salazar Becerra picks up the mount for Robert Gorham, a trainer who fields multiple horses on the card today and clearly has his stable rolling. At double-digit odds, this is the kind of horse you build an exacta and trifecta around.

place8El NotionalML 4/1

El Notional sits second in our ratings at 69.38 with a 33% career win rate and an average speed of 54 — solid, consistent numbers for a horse going at 4/1. Trainer Robert Cline fields three horses in this race, a sign the barn is loaded for bear, and Joe Stokes gets the riding assignment. As a logical pace presser in a six-furlong sprint, he's well-positioned to threaten for second.

show5Breakheart PassML 2/1

Breakheart Pass is the 2/1 morning-line favorite but only rates third in our model at 58.33, suggesting the public may be overestimating him relative to the field. A 50% career win rate and average speed of 54 are respectable, but with Santiago Gonzalez aboard and Cline sending out multiple starters, the pace scenario could get complicated. He's good enough to hit the board, making him a reliable show anchor.

Race 8

8:05 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

A one-mile turf claimer where the morning-line favorite gets undercut by our model — Glacial Power rates significantly higher than his 9/2 odds suggest, and the data makes a strong case for an overlay win.

win7Glacial PowerML 9/2

Glacial Power tops this eight-horse field with an 84.9 TrackWiz rating and the highest average speed figure in the race at 55 — two key edges in a one-mile turf affair where sustained output matters. A 14% career win rate is competitive in this claiming class, and Guillermo Rodriguez is one of the sharper riders on this circuit. At 9/2 morning line, he's priced generously for a horse who dominates the field on our metrics.

place1MohtafilML 7/2

Mohtafil is our place pick at 7/2 with a 74.86 TrackWiz rating — second-best in the field and a legitimate threat to run into the money. His 9% career win rate in what appears to be a tough spot keeps expectations measured, but trainer Brian Cook and jockey Luis Hernandez have the tools to get a placing effort out of a horse with this kind of underlying class.

show6CannonML 8/1

Cannon opens at 8/1 with a 63.83 TrackWiz rating and a 14% career win rate — numbers that match his main rival Kick It In almost identically, yet he's priced higher on the morning line. Yarmarie Correa gets the call for trainer Robert Cline, and on a one-mile turf route where early fractions can be honest, a horse with an average speed figure of 54 and this kind of value is worth anchoring your trifecta.

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Bottom line: Clean Machine, Classic Tiramisu, and Atlas Falls are your free best bets for the first three races — solid ratings, manageable prices, and conditions that suit each runner. For the full card including that 12/1 longshot in the Stakes and our multi-race exotic strategies, the complete breakdown is waiting for subscribers. Good luck out there, and let's cash some tickets at Belterra today.

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