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Belterra Park Picks & Predictions — September 17, 2026

September 17, 20268 racesAll Belterra Park picks

It's a gorgeous Thursday at Belterra Park — clear skies, 89°F, and eight races on the dirt and turf to keep you busy from first post to last. Conditions look ideal for speed on the main track, and with the turf firm under the late-summer sun, grass runners should get a true surface to show their best.

Today's card is a nice mix — three claiming events, a pair of Starter Optional Claimers, and three maiden races spread across both surfaces. That variety creates opportunities at every level, whether you're looking for a sharp overlay in the cheaper claiming ranks or angling for a potential first-out scorer on the turf.

TrackWiz has combed through the full eight-race card and flagged some compelling spots. Three races are open to all readers, and our premium breakdown covers the remaining five. Let's get into it.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:35 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A five-horse claiming sprint where the morning-line favorite doesn't hold the top TrackWiz rating — leaving room for a value play right out of the gate.

win2We Will ConquerML 4/1

We Will Conquer carries the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 85.62, which stands well above the competition despite a modest 10% career win rate. At 4/1 on the morning line, there's genuine overlay potential here — the public may be anchoring on Can of Corn as the chalk, but our numbers say the 2-horse is the one to beat. Jockey Yarmarie L. Correa gets the call and the six-furlong dirt trip looks like a comfortable spot for this runner.

place3Can of CornML 9/5

Can of Corn is the morning-line favorite at 9/5 and backs that up with a solid 80.89 rating and the best average speed figure in the field at 55. A 15% career win rate is respectable in this company, and Jann N. Hernandez is a capable hand who should have this horse forwardly placed from the 3-hole.

show5Judge HernandezML 5/2

Judge Hernandez is the standout on career win percentage at a field-best 28%, which tells you this horse knows how to finish. At 5/2 on the morning line, the 5 draws solid value for exacta and trifecta coverage, and the 70.17 TrackWiz rating is good enough to threaten for a piece of the purse.

Race 2

5:05 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Larksong looms as a dominant top choice in this one-mile starter optional claimer, but the pace scenario behind her could get interesting with multiple closers lurking.

win5LarksongML 7/5

Larksong is the standout of the entire card through two races — a 89.42 TrackWiz rating combined with a jaw-dropping 44% career win rate makes her a must-use in all exotics. She's the 7/5 morning-line favorite, and honestly the price feels like it could be even shorter by post. Jockey Rafael Mojica, Jr. gets the mount, and at one mile on dirt this horse looks built to go wire-to-wire or sit just off the pace and pounce.

place2St BernadetteML 2/1

St Bernadette checks in with a 79.28 rating and a strong 22% career win rate — she's a legitimate threat in a race where the top horse could get all the attention in the pools. The 2/1 morning-line price is fair for a horse with this kind of consistency, and Yarmarie L. Correa's presence in the irons is a positive.

show4Peacock RoadML 5/2

Peacock Road is no throwaway here — a 72.81 TrackWiz rating and a 21% career win rate make this horse a real factor for the bottom of the trifecta at minimum. Trainer David R. Reid has a horse that's competitive at this level, and jockey Joe Stokes should be able to navigate the one-mile trip cleanly from the 4-post.

Race 3

5:35 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Rock N Roll Bolt enters as a heavy favorite in ratings, but Munny Town's 33% career win rate injects some genuine intrigue into the exacta picture.

win5Rock N Roll BoltML 8/5

Rock N Roll Bolt posts an 89.12 TrackWiz rating — easily the class of this starter optional claiming field — and owns a 22% career win rate that suggests this horse competes hard when the gate opens. At 8/5 on the morning line, the price isn't generous, but the numbers justify the favoritism. Santiago Gonzalez takes the mount and the one-mile dirt route is squarely in this horse's wheelhouse.

place2Munny TownML 5/2

Munny Town is the sneaky key underneath at 5/2 — a 33% career win rate is the highest in the race, and while the 69.67 TrackWiz rating trails the top pick meaningfully, this horse has a proven knack for hitting the board. Oscar Villarreal aboard from the 2-post gives a clean setup, and if Rock N Roll Bolt faces any heat early, Munny Town is primed to swoop.

show4GeraldraydaplegrayML 4/1

Geraldraydaplegray lands at 4/1 on the morning line and posts a 45.71 rating — not flashy, but the 20% career win rate suggests a horse that's capable of running into the money in the right spot. Kevin J. Jimenez pilots from the 4-hole, and as a pace factor who could find a good trip in a race that figures to be contested early, the 4 is solid trifecta inclusion.

The first three races give everyone a free look at some of today's best plays. We Will Conquer opens the card in a 6-furlong dirt claimer — a sprint distance that should suit front-runners on what figures to be a speed-favoring main track on a hot, dry afternoon. Over in Races 2 and 3, two Starter Optional Claiming miles present back-to-back opportunities: Larksong (7/5 morning line, 89.42 TrackWiz rating) and Rock N Roll Bolt (8/5, 89.12) both grade out as the class of their respective fields.

The thread connecting these three free plays is pace — all three figures to involve contested early fractions on a track that, in this heat, should be conducive to front-end speed. Keep an eye on how the dirt is playing through the first few races, because that information will carry real value when you get to the premium portion of the card.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:05 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

A wide-open maiden special weight on the turf with no prior winners in the field — the top two TrackWiz ratings are virtually deadlocked, setting up a fascinating battle at the top.

win5English PatienceML 3/1

English Patience holds a razor-thin edge at the top of our ratings at 84.27 and gets a favorable 3/1 morning-line price that represents value given the standing. Summer Pauly takes the mount, and in a maiden field where no horse has broken their maiden yet, trainer Dermot Littlefield putting this runner on the grass at 1 1/16 miles signals confidence in the turf route setup. The slight edge in our model combined with a fair price makes this the clear top selection.

place4Missymoo IloveyouML 5/1

Missymoo Iloveyou is essentially co-top of the ratings at 84.17 — just a fraction behind the win pick — and offers 5/1 on the morning line, which looks like genuine overlay territory. Jann N. Hernandez gets the ride for trainer Magda Jacobs, and in a maiden turf route where the margins are this tight, getting 5/1 on a horse this close in the ratings is exactly the kind of value play to target in the exacta.

show6Right and TightML 7/2

Right and Tight clocks in with a 73.7 TrackWiz rating — third-best in the field — and draws the 6-post with Guillermo Rodriguez up for trainer Frank Lucarelli. The 7/2 morning-line price is reasonable for a horse sitting just outside the top cluster, and with a slightly better average speed figure of 54 than the top two picks, there's a case that this one runs a big race fresh on the turf.

Race 5

6:35 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

The morning-line favorite doesn't match up with our top-rated horse in this maiden claiming sprint — creating a prime longshot opportunity at a price.

win4Man of the HourML 8/1

Man of the Hour is our top-rated horse in this race at 79.79 yet goes off at 8/1 on the morning line — a significant disconnect that makes this a strong value play. Santiago Gonzalez picks up the mount for trainer Keith Kinmon in a 6.5-furlong dirt sprint, and while no horse in this maiden claiming field has won a race, our model gives Man of the Hour a meaningful edge over the rest. When the ratings and the odds diverge this sharply, that's exactly the overlay situation TrackWiz is built to identify.

place5Most ProbableML 5/2

Most Probable is the morning-line second choice at 5/2 and backs that up with a 66.78 TrackWiz rating — second-best in the field. J.J. Meza takes the call for trainer Colby Williams, and with an average speed figure of 54 matching the top performers, this horse should be competitive throughout the 6.5-furlong trip. Solid place-ticket anchor.

show6Creating HavocML 7/2

Creating Havoc rounds out our trifecta at 7/2 morning line with a 61.96 rating that's just a whisker behind the place pick. Trainer Artemio Gonzalez sends this one out with Javier Tavares aboard, and the 54 average speed figure ties as the best in the race. A horse that's producing strong workmanlike speed figures in a wide-open maiden field is always worth including in the bottom of exotics.

Race 6

7:05 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

Ten runners go to post in this maiden claiming turf route, and Delgany Boy's 86.35 rating towers over the field — though Fogg Cove's elite average speed figure makes the exotics intriguing.

win5Delgany BoyML 7/2

Delgany Boy brings the highest TrackWiz rating in this race by a comfortable margin at 86.35, and at 7/2 on the morning line there's still decent value attached. Summer Pauly gets the mount for trainer Dermot Littlefield — the same connections we liked in Race 4 — and in a 10-horse maiden claiming turf field, having a clear ratings advantage at a non-favorite price is the kind of spot you can't pass up.

place9Fogg CoveML 6/1

Fogg Cove is the hidden gem in this field — a 76.39 TrackWiz rating is second-best in the race, but what really stands out is a field-best average speed figure of 56. Santiago Gonzalez in the irons at 6/1 makes this an attractive exacta partner with the top pick, and a horse posting speed figures that high in a maiden claiming turf race is worth putting above the morning-line favorites in the exotics.

show10AkkadianML 3/1

Akkadian opens at 3/1 — the second-shortest price on the board — and checks in with a 63 TrackWiz rating for trainer Ethan W. West. Dylan Machado pilots from the 10-post, which requires some awareness in a turf race, but the morning-line support from the oddsmakers combined with a consistent 53 average speed figure makes this a reasonable show bet and trifecta inclusion.

Race 7

7:35 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A tight claiming sprint at 5.5 furlongs where the top two TrackWiz ratings are nearly identical — Patty's Girl and Grab My Tab figure to go head-to-head in a race that could come down to the wire.

win3Patty's GirlML 2/1

Patty's Girl tops the field with an 88.54 TrackWiz rating and draws the 2/1 morning-line favoritism that our model fully endorses. Yarmarie L. Correa — who's had a solid card today — takes the mount for trainer Rey Hernandez, and a 12% career win rate in claiming company is steady. In a short 5.5-furlong dirt dash, Patty's Girl's rating edge over the field should translate to a decisive effort.

place4Grab My TabML 5/2

Grab My Tab is the player's exacta underneath at 5/2 — an 87.81 TrackWiz rating that's virtually identical to the win pick makes this horse a legitimate threat to reverse the order. Guillermo Rodriguez rides for trainer Richard Estvanko, and while a 5% career win rate is modest, the raw speed numbers here suggest this runner has been running competitive races without always getting the result. Expect a big effort.

show5Panic ModeML 9/2

Panic Mode brings a 73.23 rating and a 9% career win rate to the table — solid enough for claiming company at this level. Luis A. Hernandez gets the mount for trainer Luis R. Dominguez, and with all four speed figures in this race clustered at 54, the pace scenario figures to be honest and set up for closers. At 9/2, Panic Mode is the right price to slot into the bottom of the trifecta.

Race 8

8:05 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

The nightcap is a deep 11-horse maiden claiming turf mile with wide-open ratings — no horse dominates on paper, making it a prime race for exotic players to spread.

win9ZivaML 5/1

Ziva tops our ratings in this wide-open field at 74.16 and draws a fair 5/1 morning-line price that provides genuine value. Guillermo Rodriguez — who's had multiple horses in the money tonight — picks up the mount for trainer Byron G. Hughes, and the 53 average speed figure is competitive in a maiden turf mile where most rivals are clustered in the same range. In a race this wide open, leaning on the top-rated horse at a plus price is the smart play.

place5Trojan CheerleaderML 3/1

Trojan Cheerleader is the morning-line second choice at 3/1 and holds a 70.51 TrackWiz rating that's firmly in contention. Dylan Machado gets the ride for trainer Ethan W. West, who also saddled Akkadian earlier in the card. In a maiden turf mile with no standout, a horse backed by the public at 3/1 with a solid rating is a natural place-bet candidate.

show3TectonicML 6/1

Tectonic rounds out our trifecta at 6/1 morning line with a 69.82 rating — barely a tick behind the place pick — and Mia Nicholls takes the mount for trainer Justin Wojczynski. The 53 average speed figure is consistent with the top contenders, and at 6/1 in a race this competitive, Tectonic offers the kind of trifecta value that can pay nicely when the favorites hold form on top.

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Clear skies, fast dirt, and a firm turf course — Belterra Park is set up perfectly for a full day of sharp handicapping. We Will Conquer, Larksong, and Rock N Roll Bolt lead the free card, and the premium analysis goes deep on five more races including our top longshot angle of the day. Dig in, play smart, and good luck at the windows.

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