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Belmont Park Picks & Predictions — November 5, 2026

November 5, 20268 racesAll Belmont Park picks

Best bets at Belmont Park today

Race 14So AngelinaML 2/112:40 PM EST

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So Angelina is our best bet among today's free races — a claiming price drop from $75,000 down to $30,000 in Race 1 is exactly the kind of class-relief angle that gets our attention, and TrackWiz analysis gives her a 22.68% sim win probability against a morning line of 2/1.

Now, about the conditions: Belmont is getting soaked today with rain rolling through at a sweltering 90°F — a genuinely unusual combination that creates a heavy, cuppy surface on the dirt and raises real questions about turf playability. Five of the eight races are carded on the grass, so watch the scratch wire closely before you finalize any tickets. When rain-softened turf shows up at Belmont, pace dynamics and breeding become extra important factors.

It's an eight-race card with a solid mix of maiden claimers, allowance company, and claiming routes across both surfaces. A handful of picks are sitting at overlaid morning lines, which always makes for an interesting wagering day. Let's break it down.

Best Bets

Race 1

12:40 PM EST

Maiden Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

A wide-open maiden claimer on the dirt with no proven runners in the field — everyone comes in with a zero career win percentage and unproven running styles, making the workout tab and recent speed figures the main handicapping tools.

win4So AngelinaML 2/1

So Angelina tops the TrackWiz ratings at 61.01 — the highest mark in a pretty evenly clustered field — and leads our 10,000-race simulations with a 22.68% win share. The big hook here is a significant claiming price drop from $75,000 all the way down to $30,000, which suggests connections are serious about finding a spot where this filly can get the job done. The concern is real though: she's placed in just one of her last six races and has a 1-for-5 record at sprint distances, so this isn't a laydown — it's a calculated bet on the class drop doing its work.

place3B My LadyML 3/1

B My Lady is our ratings runner-up at 56.67 and brings the second-fastest recent race speed in the field at 12.79 sec/furlong, only trailing the top figure. Jockey Samuel Marin has posted a 23% win rate and 59% in-the-money figure over the past year, which is a meaningful edge in a maiden field, and the claiming price drop from $50,000 to $35,000 adds some intent from the connections. The knock is her workout tab — she ranks fourth among the field over the last month — but the race speed and jockey combo keep her squarely in the exacta conversation.

show1AcidentlyonprpseML 5/1

Acidentlyonprpse is the workout star of this field, ranking first over the last month at a sharp 12.11 sec/furlong, and that fitness angle could matter most in a race where nobody has a proven race record to lean on. The TrackWiz rating of 53.33 ties for third in the field, and the morning line of 5/1 looks workable if the workout form translates. With a first-time-out vibe running through the whole field, fresh horses with strong recent drills tend to have an edge — worth including underneath in exactas and trifectas.

We ran Race 1 10,000 times. Most wins:

4So Angelina23%
3B My Lady19%
6Boxajoe N Tootzrol15%

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Race 1 is where the value conversation starts today. So Angelina's drop from $75,000 to $30,000 claiming isn't a subtle tweak — that's a trainer sending a clear message that they want this horse in the winner's circle. Big claiming drops in maiden company often signal a connections believe the horse can finally find the right spot. At 2/1 on the morning line with a 61.01 TrackWiz rating, she's not a monster price, but the angle is legitimate and the wet dirt could either help or hurt depending on her breeding. This one's worth a close look in your program.

The rain complicates things across the full card, but for the free race specifically, keep an eye on early scratches and any surface changes closer to post. Wet Belmont dirt tends to favor horses that can get out and establish position — and with an unproven run style on So Angelina, we'll be watching the morning workout line and paddock closely before the gates open.

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Race 2

1:10 PM EST

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Turf

Trainer Chad Brown sends out two of the six entrants in this maiden special weight mile on the turf, while Bill Mott also saddles a pair — this race shapes up as a stable-wars scenario with some genuine talent hiding behind modest form lines.

win2Fango CreekML 5/2

Fango Creek is the TrackWiz top-rated horse in this field at 77.26 — a full 18 points clear of the next rival — and won 30.6% of our 10,000 simulations, the highest share of any runner. Trained by Hall of Famer Bill Mott and piloted by Jose Lezcano, who carries a 17% win rate and 50% in-the-money mark over the past year, the connections here inspire confidence. The 5/2 morning line seems fair for the top-rated horse, and while the unproven run style is a flag on all entrants, the speed edge at 12.31 sec/furlong (second-best recent figure) gives Fango Creek a concrete edge over most of the field.

place3Sky ChartML 8/5

Sky Chart enters with the fastest recent race speed figure in the field at 11.90 sec/furlong — that's a clear gap over the competition — and owns a 100% in-the-money rate from one career start, checking the 'placed last out' box. Also trained by Mott, with Johnny Velazquez up, the pedigree of connections is hard to dismiss even at the 8/5 morning line. Our sims give Sky Chart 24.74% — the second-best projection — and the top speed number makes this horse the most likely pace-setter or presser to run the field off their feet.

show6Global InvestmentML 7/2

Global Investment is a Chad Brown trainee, and that alone demands respect on the turf — Brown's operation knows how to develop grass horses. Samuel Marin, who shows up in TrackWiz's Top 50 Jockeys list today, has a 23% win rate and 59% in-the-money figure over the past year, making this a sharp connections play at 7/2. The rating of 55.83 (third in the field) and 15.43% sim win share suggest this one has real win potential too, not just show value — if the top two soften each other up, Brown's closer profile could land right on cue.

We ran Race 2 10,000 times. Most wins:

2Fango Creek31%
3Sky Chart25%
4Manana Island16%

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Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 3

1:40 PM EST

Claiming · 6 fur · Turf

The top TrackWiz rating in this six-furlong turf claimer belongs to Frostelle at 75.25, but a troubling recent form slump makes this more complicated than a chalk play — the second and third-rated horses are lurking with legitimate angles.

win2FrostelleML 5/2

Frostelle owns the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 75.25 and posts the fastest recent race speed figure of any runner at 11.71 sec/furlong — those two data points alone put her at the top of the form. Jose Lezcano, with a 17% win rate and 50% in-the-money mark over the past year, is a capable partner, and our simulations give her a 25.36% win share. The concern worth flagging: she's been off the board in her last three races and has only hit the board once in five tries at this six-furlong distance — she's talented but needs to put it all together here.

place1AzizamML 2/1

Azizam is the second-rated horse at 61.68 and brings a sharp workout tab, ranking second in the field over the last month at 11.83 sec/furlong. Trainer George Weaver earns an A- grade from TrackWiz, and Javier Castellano in the irons is always a live connection — the horse posts the third-fastest recent race speed at 12.03 sec/furlong. The concern is cold form — she's placed in just one of her last six races — but the workout sharpness and connections suggest she may be ready to turn the corner here.

show8Lord ChathamML 9/2

Lord Chatham draws the outside post in an eight-horse field but comes in with the top-rated jockey among our picks — Edgard Zayas holds a TrackWiz A- jockey grade. The rating of 53.5 puts him third in the field, and a career in-the-money rate of 33% gives him a baseline of consistency. His recent form has been cold with four straight off-the-board efforts, and his workout ranking is sixth in the field, so he's more of an exotic hedge than a confident single — but Zayas has a habit of finding good trips from tough spots.

We ran Race 3 10,000 times. Most wins:

2Frostelle25%
1Azizam21%
8Lord Chatham14%

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Race 4

2:10 PM EST

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Lough Currane stands out as a clear class standout in this six-furlong dirt maiden claimer, holding a TrackWiz rating nearly 20 points clear of the second-best horse — but a field full of significant claiming price drops suggests connections are hungry, which could make for a tricky pace scenario.

win1Lough CurraneML 3/1

Lough Currane is the dominant figure in this field on paper — a 87.08 TrackWiz rating that ranks first by a wide margin, and our simulations back that up with a 28.97% win share. The fastest recent race speed in the field at 12.42 sec/furlong is paired with a solid dirt pedigree: six placings in ten career starts on the dirt surface. Samuel Marin (23% win rate, 59% in-the-money over the past year) keeps the connections sharp, and at 3/1 on the morning line, there's reasonable value here compared to what this horse's rating dominance might suggest.

place5Ace in HandML 3/1

Ace in Hand is rated second in the field at 68.97 and shows the second-fastest recent race speed at 13.07 sec/furlong — that's a gap over most of the other entrants. The claiming price drop from $40,000 to $20,000 is a notable angle, and trainer Kenneth McPeek carries a solid B grade from TrackWiz. The 20.22% sim win share says this horse genuinely threatens to win outright, so using him in exactas underneath and on top of the top pick looks like the right construction.

show6Cruisin CrossbayML 5/2

Cruisin Crossbay brings an interesting connection angle — the Kendrick Carmouche and Linda Rice trainer-jockey combo has posted a 28% win rate and 63% in-the-money mark together over the past year, which is one of the stronger combos on today's card. The rating of 57.5 is third in the field, and the 15.33% sim share is respectable. The layoff of 298 days is a real flag and her recent speed figure was sixth in the field, so the form and freshness concerns are legitimate — but that trainer-jockey angle is too good to leave out of the exotics.

We ran Race 4 10,000 times. Most wins:

1Lough Currane29%
5Ace in Hand20%
6Cruisin Crossbay15%

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Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 5

2:41 PM EST

Maiden Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

A nine-horse maiden optional claiming mile on the turf with tight ratings across the top four picks — no single horse dominates the field, setting up a race where connections, recent form, and turf breeding will drive the result.

win7Hetch HetchyML 3/1

Hetch Hetchy tops the TrackWiz ratings at 56.67 — the highest mark in the field — and carries jockey Antonio Fresu, who has a 21% win rate and 60% in-the-money figure over the past year, the best jockey stats among our picks. The third-fastest recent race speed at 12.36 sec/furlong is respectable but not dominant, so this is as much a connections call as it is a form play. At 3/1 morning line, Hetch Hetchy wins 16.37% of our simulations — slightly lower than the second-rated Proper Jack — which makes this a defensible but not bulletproof top choice in what shapes up as a wide-open turf mile.

place2Proper JackML 7/2

Proper Jack is trained by Chad Brown — arguably the best grass trainer in the country — and comes in with the fastest recent race speed at 12.15 sec/furlong, the top figure in the field. The 100% in-the-money rate from recent starts and two consecutive placings give him the strongest recent form profile of any entrant. At 7/2, Proper Jack wins 17.78% of our sims — actually the highest of any horse in the field — and the Brown turf angle could easily make this the win pick on another day.

show1Ticket to FameML 4/1

Ticket to Fame brings a solid 50% in-the-money career rate and the second-fastest recent race speed in the field at 12.29 sec/furlong. Edgard Zayas (A- jockey grade) is a reliable partner, and the 4/1 morning line offers fair value for a horse that grades out third in the ratings. The workout rank is a concern — eighth in the field over the last month — but the race speed figure and Zayas's ability to find position make Ticket to Fame a sensible underneath play in trifectas.

We ran Race 5 10,000 times. Most wins:

2Proper Jack18%
7Hetch Hetchy16%
1Ticket to Fame16%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 6

3:12 PM EST

Allowance Optional Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

Eliminate owns the top TrackWiz rating by a wide margin in this seven-furlong dirt allowance optional claimer, but the morning line oddly favors General Partner at 2/1 — there's a potential value play on the top-rated horse at a price.

win3EliminateML 9/2

Eliminate is the highest-rated horse in this field at 84.9 — more than 16 points clear of the second-rated Two Eagles River — and wins 25.31% of our 10,000 simulations. Trainer Linda Rice and jockey Kendrick Carmouche are a proven unit: that combo carries a 28% win rate and 63% in-the-money mark together over the past year, which is elite by any measure. The 20% career win rate and five wins from 25 dirt starts show consistent form over the surface, and the 9/2 morning line represents genuine overlay value compared to the top rating and sim share.

place2Two Eagles RiverML 5/2

Two Eagles River is the second-rated horse at 68.06 and owns the second-fastest recent race speed in the field at 11.99 sec/furlong. The seven wins and 19 placings from 31 dirt starts establish him as a reliable dirt miler, and three consecutive in-the-money finishes coming in suggest he's training toward peak form. The age concern is real — he's six years old and TrackWiz flags that as typically past peak — but the recent consistency makes him a strong exacta partner at 5/2.

show4General PartnerML 2/1

General Partner is the morning line favorite at 2/1 and carries the fastest recent race speed in the field at 11.95 sec/furlong — Samuel Marin (23% win rate, 59% in-the-money) gives him sharp connections atop a Chad Brown trainee. The concern: he's been off the board in his last three starts, which is a meaningful red flag for a horse coming off back-to-back cold races at the allowance level. At 2/1, he's priced as the top choice but rates third in our model — worth keeping in exotics rather than making him a confident single.

We ran Race 6 10,000 times. Most wins:

3Eliminate25%
2Two Eagles River22%
4General Partner21%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 7

3:43 PM EST

Claiming · 1 1/8 mi · Turf

Ice Chocolat enters this nine-horse turf mile-and-an-eighth claimer as a heavy 8/5 favorite with the top TrackWiz rating and the best recent workout and race speed figures — this race hinges on whether the aging favorite's class can hold off a pair of live runners at a price.

win8Ice ChocolatML 8/5

Ice Chocolat is the class of this field with an 88.6 TrackWiz rating — the highest mark on today's entire card — and backs it up with the fastest recent race speed (11.89 sec/furlong) and the sharpest recent workout (11.75 sec/furlong, ranked first). Four placings in the last six races show the consistency you want from a heavy favorite, and our simulations give Ice Chocolat a 28.64% win share. The only flag is age — at eight years old, TrackWiz notes this is typically past a horse's prime — but the form says otherwise, and at 8/5, you're essentially paying for the most talented horse in the race.

place7Relampago VerdeML 5/1

Relampago Verde is an intriguing overlay here at 5/1 with a TrackWiz rating of 84.17 — the second-best in the field and only 4.4 points behind the heavy favorite. Samuel Marin (23% win rate, 59% in-the-money over the past year) is a live jockey, and the horse has won at the mile-and-an-eighth distance before, placing in two of three career starts at the trip. The step up in claiming price is a minor concern, but at 5/1 with the second-best rating and a 17.63% sim win share, Relampago Verde looks like the best value play on the board in this race.

show3Late CallML 8/1

Late Call comes in with the third-highest TrackWiz rating at 74.53 and a healthy 58% in-the-money career mark. Four placings in the last six races show consistent form, and 15 placings from 26 turf starts establish him as a confirmed grass horse. At 8/1, the age concern (seven years old) and the trainer's B+ grade keep him from being a top pick, but the recent form and turf record make Late Call a sensible show bet and a natural inclusion in trifectas underneath the top two.

We ran Race 7 10,000 times. Most wins:

8Ice Chocolat29%
7Relampago Verde18%
3Late Call13%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 8

4:14 PM EST

Starter Optional Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

Spinning Class holds a commanding TrackWiz rating lead in this 11-horse turf starter optional claimer at a mile-and-a-sixteenth, but the depth of the field and a pair of live runners in Money Trail and Greyjoy make this more than just a chalk-and-call race.

win4Spinning ClassML 7/2

Spinning Class is the top-rated horse in this field at 86.35 — the highest rating among our picks and among the highest on today's card — and owns the fastest recent race speed in the field at 12.07 sec/furlong. Three consecutive in-the-money finishes show the horse is training toward peak condition, and trainer Claude McGaughey III earns an A- grade from TrackWiz. At 7/2 morning line, Spinning Class wins 22.43% of our simulations — the top projection — and the form, figures, and connections all point the same direction.

place9Money TrailML 5/1

Money Trail might be the most consistent horse on the entire Belmont card today: five placings in the last six races, and an extraordinary seven placings from eight career starts at today's distance of a mile-and-a-sixteenth. The 70.85 TrackWiz rating ranks second in the field, and two consecutive in-the-money finishes coming in confirm the horse is in good form. At 5/1 morning line, there's real value in a horse with that kind of distance-specific record — 14.08% sim win share shows legitimate upside, and he looks like a near-lock for the exacta.

show11GreyjoyML 10/1

Greyjoy is the third-rated horse at 69.99 with a 70% career in-the-money rate — that's among the best consistency marks on today's card across all races. Four placings in the last six races and a one-win, four-placing record from five career tries at medium distances show this horse knows how to run on. Antonio Fresu (21% win rate, 60% in-the-money over the past year) is an A-grade jockey who finds ways to get horses home, and at 10/1, Greyjoy's sim win share of 9.92% suggests the morning line might be a touch long — worth including in trifectas and superfectas.

We ran Race 8 10,000 times. Most wins:

4Spinning Class22%
9Money Trail14%
2Determind Princess12%

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Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 11 runners

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Full Card Analysis

Unlock the full card and you'll get TrackWiz's complete analysis on all seven premium races — including pace projections for the five turf routes where today's rain could completely scramble the typical front-runner advantage, plus a full breakdown on standouts like Ice Chocolat (88.6 rating, 4 placings in the last 6 starts) in Race 7 and the sharp jockey-trainer combo angle powering Eliminate in Race 6's allowance optional claimer.

Premium subscribers also get our multi-race wager strategy for the Pick 4 and Pick 5 sequences — including which races to single and where to spread given the soft going — along with exotic ticket breakdowns built around today's most playable pace scenarios. With five turf races potentially running on a compromised surface, the right ticket construction makes all the difference. Get the full picture at TrackWiz Premium.

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Bottom line: So Angelina in Race 1 is the free play of the day — the claiming drop is real and the angle is worth following. Beyond that, today's rain-soaked card is loaded with intrigue across seven premium races where surface conditions could flip outcomes in a hurry. Full-card analysis, pace projections, and exotic strategies are all waiting for subscribers — check out TrackWiz Premium and don't get caught flat-footed at first post. Good luck out there.

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