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Free Belmont Park Picks & Predictions for Today — October 17, 2026

October 17, 202611 racesAll Belmont Park picks

Welcome to Belmont Park on Saturday, October 17th — eleven races, a warm 81°F afternoon, and rain coming down on the Big Sandy. That combination is going to matter today. Wet dirt at Belmont tends to favor horses who can get out early and establish position before the slop piles up, so pace scenarios and early speed will be front of mind throughout this card.

The card is all Starter Allowance company top to bottom — a conditions level where horses have to have broken their maiden or won a race to qualify, which generally keeps the field quality honest. We've got a nice mix of six-furlong sprints, route races stretching out to a mile and a half on the turf, and everything in between. With rain in the forecast affecting both the dirt and potentially pushing any late turf scratches, stay locked into TrackWiz for the latest surface updates before you finalize any tickets.

Three races are free for everyone today — Races 1, 2, and 3 — and our full 11-race breakdown is waiting for subscribers. Let's get into it.

3 Free Races Today at Belmont Park

Race 1

4:05 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

A heavy favorite dominates the morning line here, but two Linda Rice runners make this a barn-to-barn affair worth watching for exacta angles.

win6CommutedML 1/2

Commuted opens at a massive 1/2 on the morning line, and with a TrackWiz rating of 90 — the top mark in this field by a wide margin — that price is earned. Ricardo Santana, Jr. gets the call, and he's exactly the type of pilot you want aboard a short-priced runner who needs to handle his own business. A 40% career win rate backs up the raw talent, and at six furlongs on the dirt, there's no reason to expect a setback. Bet accordingly, but look to the exotics to build value.

place2Run ClassicML 6/1

Run Classic sits second in the TrackWiz ratings at 66.83 and owns the top average speed figure among the contenders at 56 — making him a sneaky strong place play behind the chalk. Edgard Zayas picks up the mount, and his experience keeping horses relaxed early could pay off in a race where the pace may be soft with a heavy favorite on the scene. An 18% career win rate understates how often this horse hits the board.

show1Cool AndyML 5/1

Cool Andy brings a 44% career win rate into this spot — the highest in the field — and Linda Rice saddling a second horse in the same race is never an accident. Kendrick Carmouche is a cagey hand at Belmont and knows how to find the right position at six furlongs. At 5/1 on the morning line, Cool Andy offers show value that looks well-priced given that win percentage.

Race 2

4:38 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 6 fur · Turf

A six-furlong turf sprint with a three-horse battle at the top of the ratings — the morning-line favorite doesn't match up to the TrackWiz numbers, which sets up an interesting overlay situation.

win4Gift of GabML 9/5

Gift of Gab earns an 88.83 TrackWiz rating, the best in the field, and Manuel Franco in the irons is about as reassuring as it gets at Belmont. Despite a 29% career win rate that already speaks for itself, what jumps out is the gap between Gift of Gab and the rest of the field — only River Seine comes within shouting distance. At 9/5, it's not a steal, but it's the right horse in a turf sprint that should suit a versatile runner.

place3River SeineML 3/1

River Seine is the TrackWiz second choice at 80.56 and actually posts the field's best average speed figure at 58 — a number that matters a lot in a short turf sprint where pure velocity can win the race before the turn. Trainer Michelle Nevin sends her out at 3/1 on the morning line, and Antonio Fresu is comfortable on the Belmont turf. If Gift of Gab has any trouble at the break, River Seine has the raw figures to steal this.

show1Delightful FlameML 6/5

Delightful Flame is the morning-line favorite at 6/5, but the TrackWiz rating of 68.84 puts her third in the field — that's a disconnect worth noting. She's still a legitimate show play given a 30% career win rate and a proven ability to hit the board, and Katie Davis has been active at this meet. In a short field on the turf, banging in a show ticket on the chalk is an easy hedge when the top two picks run well above her on our model.

Race 3

5:11 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 1 1/4 mi · Dirt

The morning-line favorite in this 1¼-mile dirt route doesn't match the TrackWiz model's top pick — creating a live overlay scenario worth digging into.

win1FrizzanteML 6/1

Frizzante opens at 6/1 on the morning line but carries the field's top TrackWiz rating at 82.71 — a significant gap over the rest of the contenders. That kind of model-versus-market discrepancy is exactly where value gets found. Pedro Pena rides, and at a mile and a quarter on the dirt, Frizzante's profile fits a horse who gets better as the distance extends. The 8% career win rate is modest, but that rating says this horse belongs on top.

place3Missouri RiverML 3/1

Missouri River is listed at 3/1 morning line and slots in second in our ratings at 61.94, making him a logical place play in a race where pace at a route distance should set up closers. Luis Ocasio has a feel for this track and a 29% career win rate on Missouri River suggests this horse knows how to compete. In a 1¼-mile race, the early leaders may come back to the field, and Missouri River looks positioned to pick them up.

show4Sharp SparkML 5/1

Sharp Spark at 5/1 rates third in the TrackWiz model at 55.05 and brings a 23% career win rate into a route that should play to stamina. Silvestre Gonzalez is capable of saving ground early and pouncing late at this trip. As a show play in exotics, Sharp Spark rounds out a solid top three in a wide-open race behind a serious overlay.

Our three free previews today span both surfaces and both sprint and route distances, which gives you a solid cross-section of the card before you decide whether to go deeper. Race 1 features Commuted at a very short 1/2 morning line on the wet dirt — when a horse is that heavily favored in a Starter Allowance sprint, the question is always whether the price is worth structuring around in your exotics. Race 2 flips to the turf for six furlongs, where Gift of Gab (9/5) grades out as our top selection — watch for any late scratches if the rain intensifies, as a turf-to-dirt switch would reshape that race entirely.

Race 3 is where the real intrigue lives among the free picks. Frizzante is our top pick at 6/1 going a testing 1¼ miles on the dirt — a distance that should separate the grinders from the pretenders, especially on a tiring, rain-softened surface. When TrackWiz ratings point toward a double-digit morning line horse with an 82-plus rating, that's the kind of value angle worth building a ticket around. All three free races have full analysis below — dig in.

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Race 4

5:44 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

A competitive eight-horse turf field where the TrackWiz top pick and morning-line favorite are in alignment — but there's serious value lurking at double-digit odds in the place spot.

win6Seat At the TableML 2/1

Seat At the Table tops the TrackWiz ratings at 84.82 and draws Ricardo Santana, Jr., who's one of the most effective turf jockeys in the New York circuit. A 43% career win rate is outstanding at any level, and at 2/1 on the morning line the market agrees with our model. Trainer Gustavo Rodriguez has a horse that clearly fits the 1 1/16-mile turf trip, and the combination of elite win percentage and top rating makes this a confident top selection.

place2Save Us MelaniaML 8/1

Save Us Melania comes in at 8/1 on the morning line but owns a 79.79 TrackWiz rating — second best in the field — which means the market is sleeping on her. A 26% career win rate is solid for this level, and Jose Lezcano is a crafty hand on the turf who can coax a big effort from horses getting overlooked at the windows. This is the kind of place play that makes exactas pay well.

show8Planet ClareML 5/1

Planet Clare rounds out the top three in our ratings at 79.2 and gets Antonio Fresu, who's been effective on the Belmont turf this meet. At 5/1, she's priced fairly but offers real show value in an eight-horse field where the pace scenario on a turf route tends to produce multiple closers. Trainer Keri Brion knows how to peak a horse at the right time, and this spot looks like it fits.

Race 5

6:17 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 6 fur · Turf

Shape Note looks like a cut above in this six-furlong turf sprint, but the race underneath him is genuinely competitive with three horses in a tight cluster chasing the top slot.

win7Shape NoteML 2/1

Shape Note is the standout here — an 88.54 TrackWiz rating, a 48% career win rate, and Manuel Franco in the saddle is about as strong a trifecta of indicators as you'll find on a race card. At 2/1 on the morning line, this is a deserving favorite rather than an inflated chalk play. Michael J. Maker trains, and his horses have a way of firing fresh and often at sprint distances on turf. This is a TrackWiz best bet.

place4Bite and StrikeML 3/1

Bite and Strike sits third in the overall ratings at 68.28 but shares the top average speed figure in the field at 57 alongside several others — meaning she has the raw speed to be competitive in a sprint. Jose Lezcano picks up the mount for Linda Rice, a barn that wins regularly at this meet. At 3/1, she's a solid exacta play underneath the clear top pick.

show5Mission ImprobableML 9/2

Mission Improbable draws Edgard Zayas and posts the field's best average speed figure at 58, which matters in a six-furlong dash where fast horses from the gate can control position. A 28% career win rate puts her in the conversation, and Rodolphe Brisset is a trainer who excels on the turf. At 9/2, she's a live show play and worth including in your exotics.

Race 6

6:50 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

A rare case where the morning-line favorite and the TrackWiz model diverge — City Blocks at 3/1 edges out Will Not Be Swayed at 2/1 in our ratings, setting up a potential overlay in the place spot.

win7City BlocksML 3/1

City Blocks earns an 87.08 TrackWiz rating and gets Manuel Franco, one of the most reliable dirt jockeys on the East Coast right now. The Linda Rice barn is firing on all cylinders at this meet, and a 20% career win rate at a 3/1 price means the market hasn't fully caught up with what our model sees. At 6½ furlongs on the dirt, this trip favors horses with closing speed off a fast early fraction — City Blocks fits that profile.

place5Will Not Be SwayedML 2/1

Will Not Be Swayed opens as the 2/1 morning-line choice and comes in right behind City Blocks in our ratings at 85.13 — this is a genuine one-two punch at the top of the field. Ricardo Santana, Jr. in the irons gives you confidence in a horse that needs to handle its own speed at a two-turn sprint distance. The 25% career win rate is respectable, and if anything goes sideways for the top pick, this one is ready to capitalize.

show1Meg's Foxy GreyML 7/2

Meg's Foxy Grey at 7/2 earns a 68.63 TrackWiz rating and brings a 25% career win rate into a field where only two horses clearly separate themselves at the top. Antonio Fresu takes the mount for Michelle Nevin, and this horse's average speed figure at 55 is competitive. In a race where the top two horses may burn each other up early, a closer like Meg's Foxy Grey could find late ground on a potentially honest pace.

Race 7

7:23 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 1 1/2 mi · Turf

Carc Brothers dominates this mile-and-a-half turf marathon with a 100% career win rate — the question isn't who wins, it's who finishes second at a price.

win1Carc BrothersML 6/5

Carc Brothers is as close to a mortal lock as you'll see on a race card — a 100% career win rate combined with an 89.71 TrackWiz rating and Manuel Franco in the irons at a 6/5 morning-line price. A mile and a half on the turf suits a horse who has never been beaten, and Rob Atras is the kind of trainer who puts horses in spots they can win. The only real risk is a pace scenario that gets bizarre, but with Franco controlling the trip, expect a professional performance.

place7InterceptorML 2/1

Interceptor is the logical second choice at 2/1 on the morning line and backs it up with a 65.22 TrackWiz rating — well clear of the rest of the pack behind the top pick. Ricardo Santana, Jr. is an excellent match for a route on the turf, and a 26% career win rate means this horse competes consistently. If you're playing the exacta, pairing Carc Brothers on top of Interceptor is the obvious starting point.

show2MutaawidML 4/1

Mutaawid at 4/1 rounds out our top three at 58.22 in the ratings and gets Kendrick Carmouche, who has navigated Belmont's long turf course many times. A 19% career win rate is modest, but in a seven-horse field going a mile and a half, trip luck and stamina matter as much as raw numbers. At 4/1, Mutaawid offers legitimate show value if Carc Brothers does his job on the front end.

Race 8

7:56 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 1 mi · Dirt

A deep nine-horse dirt mile with a very tight top three in the TrackWiz ratings — within two points separating our win, place, and show picks — making this a race built for exotic play.

win4MursalML 3/1

Mursal earns an 86.53 TrackWiz rating — a shade ahead of stablemate Snide — and Dylan Davis gets the call for the Linda Rice barn, which sends out two live shots in the same race. A 28% career win rate and a 55 average speed figure are the best in the field, and at 3/1 on the morning line the value is real. In a nine-horse field at a mile on the dirt, Mursal's combination of top-end speed and tactical versatility should translate.

place3SnideML 4/1

Snide sits a hair behind at 85.62 in the ratings but draws Jose Lezcano, who has a knack for finding the sweet spot in traffic at a one-mile trip. Also for Linda Rice, Snide carries a 25% career win rate and opens at 4/1 — a price that looks reasonable given how close these two stablemates are in our model. The same barn sending two horses at this level often uses the second runner as a pacesetter, which could set up perfectly.

show5Despo's DreamML 7/2

Despo's Dream rates third at 80.87 and gets Manuel Franco for Rudy Rodriguez — a combination that commands attention in any race. A 23% career win rate and an average speed figure of 55 match Mursal at the top of the field's velocity rankings. At 7/2, this is a legitimate show play that rounds out an attractive exacta/trifecta structure in a wide-open mile.

Race 9

8:29 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 1 mi · Dirt

Georgia Magic is a heavy chalk at 6/5, but Magnanimous Max at 3/1 rates almost as high in our model and could make this a two-horse affair — with a massive sleeper lurking in the show spot.

win1Georgia MagicML 6/5

Georgia Magic tops the field with an 88.01 TrackWiz rating and gets Manuel Franco, making her about as well-armed as any favorite on today's card. A 27% career win rate at a 6/5 morning-line price is a fair reflection of her ability, and at one mile on the dirt, she should be able to dictate terms from a tactical position. Steven Schauer spots his horses well, and this looks like the right spot.

place4Magnanimous MaxML 3/1

Magnanimous Max brings an 86.23 TrackWiz rating and a 50% career win rate — the highest in this field — making him a fascinating place play with legitimate win upside at 3/1. Jose Lezcano takes the mount for Linda Rice, and at a one-mile trip on the dirt, a horse who wins half the time he runs is never just a place play by default. If Georgia Magic has any trouble early, expect Max to be right there.

show6Fateful LightningML 12/1

Fateful Lightning opens at 12/1 on the morning line but earns a 73.96 TrackWiz rating — third best in the field and well ahead of anything else outside the top two. Kendrick Carmouche rides for Gustavo Rodriguez, and at double-digit odds this is the kind of show play that can turn a modest ticket into a worthwhile score. A 13% career win rate looks unimpressive, but the model says there's more ability here than the market acknowledges.

Race 10

9:02 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

Highlands Way stands alone at the top of the TrackWiz model in this nine-horse turf mile, but the real story is Urgency lurking at 6/1 as a potential overlay in the place spot.

win1Highlands WayML 5/2

Highlands Way earns an 87.81 TrackWiz rating — clear of the field — and pairs that with a 60% career win rate, which is simply exceptional at any level of competition. Manuel Franco rides for Todd Pletcher, and that combination on a top-rated horse at a mile and a sixteenth on the turf is about as confident a top pick as TrackWiz can offer today. At 5/2, the market knows, but the numbers justify the price.

place5UrgencyML 6/1

Urgency sits at 6/1 on the morning line but posts a 76.28 TrackWiz rating — second best in the field by a comfortable margin. Jose Lezcano handles the mount for Linda Rice, and a 16% career win rate on turf suggests this horse has been competitive without always getting the result. In a nine-horse turf mile, pace often sets up for closers, and Urgency's rating says she can capitalize if the front end crumbles.

show3ParosML 4/1

Paros at 4/1 earns a 70.79 TrackWiz rating for trainer Gustavo Rodriguez, and Kendrick Carmouche is a savvy navigator on a course that rewards patience. A 28% career win rate is the best of the remaining horses outside our top two, and at a mile and a sixteenth on the turf, stamina-oriented horses tend to find their way onto the board. Paros rounds out a logical trifecta with plenty of upside.

Race 11

9:35 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 7 fur · Dirt

A wide-open ten-horse dirt sprint at seven furlongs where our model splits from the morning line — the 4/1 Shoot the Nickel rates higher than the 2/1 Secured Landing, setting up a genuine overlay to close out the card.

win10Shoot the NickelML 4/1

Shoot the Nickel tops the TrackWiz ratings at 85.62 but opens at 4/1 while a lesser-rated rival holds the 2/1 morning line — that's exactly the kind of market inefficiency our model is built to find. Jose Lezcano rides for Linda Rice, a barn running hot at this meet, and a 17% career win rate in a deep field is quietly competitive. At seven furlongs on the dirt, Shoot the Nickel's figures say this horse can control or press the pace and hold on late.

place4Secured LandingML 2/1

Secured Landing is the morning-line favorite at 2/1 and backs it up with an 82.96 TrackWiz rating — second best in the field. A 43% career win rate is genuinely elite, and Kendrick Carmouche is exactly the type of grinder you want on a 2/1 shot trying to grind out a win. Even if our model prefers Shoot the Nickel on top, Secured Landing is far too good to leave off the place spot.

show5PrincipML 8/1

Princip at 8/1 earns a 67.52 TrackWiz rating — a meaningful step ahead of the rest of the field outside the top two — and gets Javier Castellano, a Hall of Fame jockey who can make a lot out of a little in a messy sprint. A 14% career win rate is modest, but at 8/1 the price compensates, and Mertkan Kantarmaci has put this horse in a spot where the figures say he can compete for the show. In a ten-horse field at seven furlongs, trifecta tickets anchored by Shoot the Nickel and Secured Landing with Princip underneath look attractive.

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Today at Belmont, the rain and warm temperatures set up a card where surface awareness is going to be just as important as raw speed figures. Our top free plays — Commuted in Race 1, Gift of Gab in Race 2, and longshot Frizzante in Race 3 — give you a strong foundation. For the full 11-race breakdown, pace scenarios, and exotic ticket strategies, TrackWiz Premium has everything you need. Good luck out there — and keep an eye on those turf scratch notices.

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