Daily Picks

Assiniboia Picks & Predictions — June 16, 2026

Tuesday, June 16, 20267 racesAssiniboia

It's a wet one at Assiniboia Downs today. Rain is falling and the mercury is sitting at 64°F, which means the dirt is playing differently than it does on a dry Manitoba afternoon — and if you've been around muddy tracks, you know that changes everything. Speed figures earned on fast footing don't always translate when the surface gets cuppy or sloppy, so pedigree, pace, and recent wet-track form are going to matter more than usual today.

We've got a seven-race card on the board, mixing Claiming races, a Maiden Special Weight for the youngsters, and a couple of Allowance and Allowance Optional Claiming spots where the better horses get to sort themselves out. There's something for every type of bettor here — from short-priced standouts to a legitimate overlay or two worth targeting in your exotics. Three races are open to everyone, with our full premium analysis covering the back half of the card for subscribers.

Best Bets

Race 1

12:30 AM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

A razor-thin top of the card in this 7-furlong allowance optional claimer — Dancing Raquel and Beelieve Her are separated by just 0.12 rating points, setting up a genuine head-to-head battle with Dynamic Strike lurking as a live third option.

win1Dancing RaquelML 2/1

Dancing Raquel earns the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 83.07 and comes in at a fair 2/1 morning line. With a 15% career win rate and an average speed figure of 54, she matches the speed of the deepest part of this field while carrying the highest overall score. Trainer Mike Taphorn puts her in the best spot of the race at 7 furlongs, a distance that should suit a horse with her profile. Jockey Javaniel R. Patterson gets the call and should be able to control tempo from the rail.

place5Beelieve HerML 5/2

Beelieve Her is essentially a dead-heat on paper with the win pick — an 82.95 rating versus 83.07 is statistical noise. She also posts a 15% career win rate and shares that 54 average speed figure, making her every bit as dangerous as Dancing Raquel. Trainer Wendy Anderson also saddles Dynamic Strike in this race, giving her barn a strong two-pronged attack. At 5/2, Beelieve Her is solid place value and absolutely cannot be tossed in any exotic construction.

show6Dynamic StrikeML 8/1

Dynamic Strike at 8/1 is the most interesting ticket in the race for horseplayers building exotics. He rates out at 76.75 — a full tier below the top two but clearly clear of the rest of the field — and like Beelieve Her, comes from the Wendy Anderson barn, which has two horses pointing at this spot. That stable confidence matters. His 11% career win rate won't blow you away, but in a race where the top two might knock each other around, Dynamic Strike could be the beneficiary.

Race 2

1:00 AM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Gallant Oak and Mr. Dazzle look like a two-horse show at the top, but this nine-horse claiming field at 6 furlongs has enough pace pressure to keep things interesting — and Diamond Concerto offers sneaky value underneath.

win5Gallant OakML 3/1

Gallant Oak leads all comers with an 87.08 TrackWiz rating despite being listed at a generous 3/1 on the morning line. His 12% career win rate is modest, but his average speed figure of 53 matches the top contenders and the overall form profile puts him a cut above. Trainer Mike Taphorn — who also sends out Racing 1's winner pick — is a confident name to follow when he drops horses into this class. Jockey Neville Stephenson gets the mount, and this duo looks like the combination to beat going six.

place1Mr. DazzleML 2/1

Mr. Dazzle runs just behind Gallant Oak with an 85.51 rating and is the morning line favorite at 2/1, which tells you the oddsmakers agree he's live. His 16% career win rate is actually the best among the top three picks, and he also posts a 53 average speed figure to match pace with the best in here. Trainer Victoria Morse puts him in a favorable spot, and Ciera Pruitt takes the mount — she's an active book in this meet. If Gallant Oak stumbles, Mr. Dazzle is right there to inherit the win.

show4Diamond ConcertoML 5/1

Diamond Concerto checks in at a 75.07 rating — a clear third-tier but a legitimate one — and 5/1 odds make her worth a look in multi-horse exotics. Her 10% career win rate and 51 average speed figure are the weakest among the top three picks, but the class of this claiming field levels the playing field somewhat. Trainer Wendy Anderson is sending her out with purpose, and Damario Bynoe in the irons adds confidence that this horse will be asked to run her race.

Race 3

1:25 AM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Rugged Rooster comes in as a short-priced favorite with the kind of rating gap that doesn't happen often in claiming company — but Dreamin Out Loud's exceptional win percentage makes this more than a one-horse show.

win5Rugged RoosterML 6/5

Rugged Rooster owns the top rating in the field at 89.00 and is rightfully installed as the 6/5 morning line favorite. His 25% career win rate and 53 average speed figure — the best in the field — back up the short price. Trainer Devon Gittens puts him in here with Rashawn Brewster aboard, a solid booking for the best horse in the field. At 6/5, this isn't a value play, but the data supports him clearly: his rating is more than 3 points clear of second-best Dreamin Out Loud.

place9Dreamin Out LoudML 4/1

Dreamin Out Loud is the one to watch underneath at 4/1. That 40% career win rate is extraordinary for a claiming horse and screams that this runner knows how to finish. A TrackWiz rating of 85.62 makes him the second-best horse on paper, and Jockey Rachaad Knights is a capable hand. If Rugged Rooster faces any pace trouble or a wide trip, Dreamin Out Loud has the profile to steal the whole thing — the place price could easily end up the steal of the ticket.

show1Mini Glazed DonutML 3/1

Mini Glazed Donut sits third in our ratings at 79.99 and carries a 27% career win rate that's among the better numbers in the field. That win percentage suggests a horse that competes consistently and finds ways to be there at the end. Trainer Tiffany Husbands sends her out from the rail with Damario Bynoe aboard, a combination that's well-positioned to stalk and pounce in a six-furlong sprint. In a race where the top two are the clear class, Mini Glazed Donut is your best show safety net.

Our three free races give you a solid foundation for the afternoon. Dancing Raquel opens the card in the Allowance Optional Claiming at 7 furlongs — a route that should suit her well, especially if the wet surface slows the early pace and rewards horses who can settle and close. Over in Race 2, Gallant Oak lines up at 3/1 in a 6-furlong Claiming event and carries one of the stronger TrackWiz ratings among today's free picks at 87.08 — worth noting in a field where the wet track could compress the margins significantly. Then in Race 3, Rugged Rooster is the morning-line favorite at 6/5 and comes in with our highest rating of the free group at 89. A heavy chalk, yes, but that number earns the respect.

One thread connecting all three free races: the rain is going to test early speed. Horses that like to gun to the front on fast dirt sometimes find the going sticky and get caught late. Watch how the first couple of races play out — if closers are running past tiring leaders, lean that way as the card progresses. That context could be the difference between a winning ticket and a near miss.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

1:50 AM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

The morning line has Cressons Lil Charm as the chalk, but TrackWiz analysis flips the script — Sherlyn Go Go rates out as the top horse in this 5.5-furlong claimer, and Load Abroad presents a live upset threat at a juicy price.

win9Sherlyn Go GoML 9/2

Sherlyn Go Go tops our ratings at 84.90 despite being listed at 9/2 on the morning line — that's a notable gap between public perception and TrackWiz numbers, which is where value is born. Her 22% career win rate and 54 average speed figure match the best in the field, and trainer Wendy Anderson has a clear read on this horse's capabilities. Jockey Kerron Khelawan picks up the mount, and at the short five-and-a-half furlong distance, a horse with that kind of speed profile should be right in the mix from the jump.

place7Load AbroadML 7/2

Load Abroad rates second among TrackWiz selections at 80.35 and carries the best career win percentage of the top three picks at 22%. The 7/2 morning line price is fair and actually makes him a reasonable win contender in his own right. Trainer Michael Nault runs him with Antonio Whitehall in the saddle, and from post seven the pace scenario could set up perfectly for a horse that knows how to finish. He's a natural underlier in any exacta construction here.

show2Cressons Lil CharmML 6/5

Cressons Lil Charm is the public's favorite at 6/5 but rates third in our analysis at 76.71 — still a quality figure, just not the best in the field. Her 18% career win rate is solid, and trainer Jerry Gourneau gives her every chance from the two post with Damario Bynoe aboard. Even if our top picks run one-two, Cressons Lil Charm has the class and consistency to hit the board, making her a reliable show leg to anchor trifectas.

Race 5

2:15 AM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Maiden special weight at 5.5 furlongs with a first-out field — several horses show no career speed figure at all, making this one of the trickier races on the card to handicap, but Brown Lite's form edges stand out in our ratings.

win9Brown LiteML 9/5

Brown Lite leads our maiden field with a 58.67 TrackWiz rating and is appropriately installed as the 9/5 morning line choice. His 52 average speed figure is respectable for a maiden, and trainer Devon Gittens sends him out with Rashawn Brewster in the irons — that's a confident stable-jockey pairing for a horse they expect to run well. In maiden races where several horses have no recorded speed figures at all, a horse with established form and the top rating holds a clear edge.

place6Rise AgainML 4/1

Rise Again checks in at a 55.00 rating and 4/1 odds, making him arguably the best value play of the top three selections in this race. His 53 average speed figure is actually the highest of any horse in the field, suggesting he's been working with purpose and has the natural foot to compete here. Trainer Michael Nault and jockey Antonio Whitehall combine for a horse that looks ready to take a step forward. If Brown Lite finds any trouble in this maiden scramble, Rise Again has the profile to steal it.

show4Known to BeML 5/1

Known to Be draws attention at 5/1 with a 53.33 rating, slotting in just behind Rise Again in the TrackWiz standings. There's no average speed figure recorded for this horse, which adds some uncertainty, but trainer Lise Pruitt — with Ciera Pruitt aboard — clearly has this runner fit for the spot. In maiden races, the unknown quantity can cut both ways, but the rating and morning line suggest there's something here worth including in multi-horse tickets.

Race 6

2:40 AM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A wide-open ten-horse allowance optional claiming field at 6 furlongs, where Wico sits clear at the top of TrackWiz ratings but faces a competitive mid-pack cluster — and My Wife Is Right offers genuine longshot appeal at 12/1.

win10WicoML 4/1

Wico earns the top TrackWiz rating in Race 6 at 85.62, a meaningful edge over the second-rated Judo at 64.02. Despite that advantage, the morning line has him at a playable 4/1, suggesting there's real value in the win spot. His 13% career win rate and 54 average speed figure place him squarely in the mix with the best sprinters in this field. Trainer Jared Brown sends him out with Antonio Whitehall, who is riding a full book today — this is a horse that deserves top billing.

place5JudoML 5/2

Judo sits second in our ratings at 64.02 and comes in at 5/2, the second-choice on the morning line. His 23% career win rate is one of the better figures among the field and suggests a horse that competes hard and hits the board consistently. Trainer Steve Keplin Jr. runs both Judo and Taillights in this race, and with Judo as the higher-rated of the two, the stable's best shot appears to be here. Sven Balroop in the irons adds a capable handler for a horse with legitimate top-three potential.

show7My Wife Is RightML 12/1

My Wife Is Right is the show pick here and a genuine value play at 12/1. His 63.61 TrackWiz rating actually slots in just below Judo — the third-best figure in the field — but he's priced like a longshot rather than a contender. Most notably, his 56 average speed figure is the highest recorded in the entire field, which is a data point that should not be overlooked in a sprint. Trainer Jerry Gourneau puts Dario Dalrymple up, and if this horse finds the right trip, the trifecta return could be substantial.

Race 7

3:05 AM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

This six-furlong allowance is one of the more intriguing races on the card — the morning line chalks up Really Ralis at even money, but TrackWiz analysis points to Acknowledge as the top-rated horse, with Silver Spiced offering massive longshot potential at 20/1.

win1AcknowledgeML 5/1

Acknowledge leads our allowance field with a 71.72 TrackWiz rating despite being listed at 5/1 — a meaningful disconnect from the public's money. His 8% career win rate is on the modest side, but in allowance company where class and form cycles matter, the rating edge carries real weight. Trainer Wendy Anderson is a well-represented barn today, and Tyrone Nelson picks up the mount from the rail. At 5/1, this is a horse whose morning line price doesn't reflect what the data is saying — that's value.

place4Silver SpicedML 20/1

Silver Spiced is a fascinating underneath play at 20/1 with a 62.29 TrackWiz rating and a 25% career win rate. That win percentage is the second-best in the field among our picks and tells you this horse competes and finishes — he just needs things to break right. Trainer Jared Brown runs him from the four post with Neville Stephenson aboard, and if the pace scenario sets up with a contested early pace between the shorter-priced horses, Silver Spiced at big odds could be the closer who benefits most.

show6Really RalisML EVN

Really Ralis is the even-money morning line favorite — and while our analysis slots Acknowledge above her, a 60.00 rating and a 50% career win rate are impossible to dismiss. That win percentage in a field of nine is a remarkable number and suggests a horse who, when conditions align, has shown she can get the job done. Trainer Cindy Krasner has her sharp, and Kerron Khelawan is a reliable pilot. Even at short odds, she's a necessary inclusion in any show parlay or exotic coverage.

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Bottom line: seven races, a rain-soaked Assiniboia surface, and plenty of angles to work with. Rugged Rooster in Race 3 is our top-rated free pick of the day, but don't overlook Dancing Raquel to set the tone in Race 1. For the full card — pace scenarios, exotic tickets, and every premium pick — it's all waiting for subscribers. Good luck out there, and may your mudders run true.

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