Arapahoe Picks & Predictions — August 16, 2026

Aunt Alex is right behind Tapper in the ratings at 83.87, and trainer Robert J. Haar puts his own son Nathan in the saddle — that family connection often signals quiet confidence. A 9% career win rate looks low, but in a competitive allowance field, it may reflect tough spots rather than a lack of talent. At 4/1 on the morning line, she offers genuine each-way value and should be on every exacta ticket underneath Tapper.

Lady Admiral is the show pick here at 75.40 on the TrackWiz scale and brings an impressive 37% career win percentage to the table — easily the highest win rate among the contenders in this race. Trainer Stetson Rushton has Lady Admiral in the three-hole with Larren Delorme riding, a pairing that fires regularly at this meet. At 5/1, her high win percentage relative to her morning line makes her a legitimate show contender and an appealing exotic inclusion.

Lazy Days shows a 36% career win percentage and earns a 77.98 TrackWiz rating, making her the second-best horse in the field on our model. Adrian B. Ramos rides for trainer Trevor Rushton, who also sends out Sarah's Court in this same race. Her average speed of 57 is among the best in the field, and at 5/1, she's a legitimate overlay in the place spot if Trista runs away from the field at the front.

Lucky Burglar brings a 35% career win clip and a 76.51 TrackWiz rating — essentially a carbon copy of Lazy Days in raw numbers but shipping from a different angle. Trainer Stacy Campo sends her out with Pedro Gonzalez up, and her average speed of 57 ties with Lazy Days for the top mark in this field. At 7/2, she projects as solid value in the show slot and worth including in tri tickets behind Trista.

Quicktrip Van rates just behind the top pick at 80.53 and owns a strong 37% career win percentage — one of the better win records in this field. Adrian B. Ramos gets on for trainer Russell Vicchrilli, and at 5/2 she's actually the morning-line favorite, suggesting the public sees what the ratings see. Her 56 average speed is consistent with the group, and if Pals Wild Liberty hits any traffic, Quicktrip Van is right there to capitalize.

India Ink slots in as our show pick with a 77.65 rating and an average speed of 57 — matching the top horses in the field. Trainer Stetson Rushton has her in the seven-hole with Larren Delorme up, and a 25% career win rate shows she's a reliable performer. The juicy part? She's listed at 8/1 on the morning line despite being the third-rated horse in the field — that's the kind of price discrepancy that makes show bets and exacta wheels well worth exploring.

Sunshining rates second in the field at 75.55 with a 28% career win percentage — a solid record for the derby level. Trainer Chris Gandarilla gives Cordarelton J. Benn the mount, and at 3/1 on the morning line, she's priced as a legitimate contender rather than a fringe threat. In a 400-yard sprint, she only needs to be at her best for about 20 seconds — and that win rate suggests she knows how to show up when it counts.

One Glittering Flare is particularly intriguing here: she rates third in the field at 70.36 but owns a 50% career win percentage — the highest win rate of any horse in this race. Trainer Jose Manuel Barron sends her out with Daniel Valles in the irons, and at 7/2 she offers the best combination of win rate and rating among the mid-tier contenders. That 50% win clip is hard to ignore — she wins half the time she runs, and that makes her a must-include in tri and exacta tickets.

Ta Ka Ta Ka rates second in this field at 77.57 and shows a 33% career win rate — meaningful for a young horse in futurity company. Trainer Jose Manuel Barron sends her with Daniel Valles up, the same combination handling One Glittering Flare in Race 6, suggesting the barn is in sharp form tonight. At 3/1, she's the logical place horse and a natural underneath Tahitis French Kiss in exacta combinations.

Bye Bye Monday comes in at a 68.07 rating — third-best in the field — and trainer Fernando Ivan Manriquez, who also conditions Last Regard and Rr Illegal Cash in this same race, has clearly loaded up. Mark A. Jasso gets the mount at 9/2 on the morning line, which offers a touch of value relative to what the ratings suggest. In a messy 11-horse futurity where the fractions are blistering and the margins razor-thin, Bye Bye Monday's rating profile makes her a solid show target and worthwhile tri inclusion.

Kason's Buckaroo is the surprise second pick here, landing at a 75.00 TrackWiz rating — a comfortable margin above most of the field. Trainer Mark N. Hibdon has David Cardoso in the irons, and at 10/1 on the morning line, this is the kind of place bet that can turn a good night into a great one. The rating profile suggests she belongs in this race, even if the morning line says otherwise — and in a stakes full of lightly credentialed contenders, she's the best of the rest.

Lastchance rates at 56.67 and carries a 50% career win rate — identical to Arizona Squeeze in that category but with a better rating edge. Trainer O. A. Martinez, Jr. gives Larren Delorme the ride at 3/1, making her the third choice in the market but the third-best horse on our model as well. In a race where the winner is likely already decided, the show pool behind Caps and Carnage could be where the value lives — and Lastchance's win rate says she hits the board regularly.

Subsidize is right behind the top pick at 79.79 on the TrackWiz scale and shows a 20% career win rate while posting a 54 average speed figure. Trainer Trevor Rushton deploys Adrian B. Ramos at 8/1 on the morning line — a price that looks generous given the horse's rating profile. In a route race this competitive, a place bet on Subsidize at that price is the kind of wager that builds bankrolls over time.

Looks Rare completes a tightly grouped top three with a 78.67 rating and a 28% career win rate — the highest win percentage among the three top picks. Mike T. Luark rides for trainer Russell Vicchrilli, and at 4/1, Looks Rare is priced reasonably for a horse sitting just off the top of the ratings. In a mile-and-an-eighth grind on dirt, that 56 average speed figure is the best in the field — which could mean she's been running against tougher company than tonight's rivals.

Rockin Marie rates second at 77.13 with a 19% career win percentage and an average speed of 54 — consistent and reliable across her starts. David Cardoso rides for trainer Stetson Rushton, who has multiple horses in tonight's card and is clearly having an active meet. At 5/2 on the morning line, she's the public's choice but our second choice — a classic win-or-place type who should be near the top of the stretch run.

I'm a Trumper slots in third on our model at 76.23 and owns the highest average speed figure in the race at 56 — a meaningful edge in a one-mile test where staying power matters. Trainer Kerry Kemper sends Daniel Aguilar up at 7/2, and an 11% career win rate in stakes conditions speaks to the competitive level she's been campaigning at. She makes for a solid show play and a natural inclusion in tri tickets behind Hot and Nasty.