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Albuquerque Picks & Predictions — October 17, 2026

October 17, 202610 racesAll Albuquerque picks

We've got a loaded Saturday card at Albuquerque — 10 races, all on the dirt, with a mix of Stakes events and two Derby showdowns sandwiched in the middle. Partly cloudy skies and a comfortable 60°F make for near-ideal racing conditions, so don't expect the weather to be an excuse for any trainer today.

This is a quarter horse-heavy card built around short, explosive sprints — we're talking distances ranging from 350 yards all the way out to 870 yards. That 870-yard distance shows up twice and is the longest race on the card, which adds a different kind of pace dynamic compared to the pure gate-to-wire dashes you'll see in the 350 and 400-yard events.

With Stakes-level competition in eight of the ten races and Derby conditions in Races 4 and 9, the overall quality of today's field is well above your average weekend card. There's legitimate upside on several morning lines, including a pair of 8/1 overlays our models are flagging for value.

Best Bets

Race 1

12:05 AM EDT

Stakes · 870 yd · Dirt

A clear top-two standout situation in this 870-yard Stakes opener, with Eb Famous King and Mister Lights Out separating themselves from the rest of the field on ratings — but the longer trip at 870 yards adds a layer of intrigue.

win1Eb Famous KingML 7/2

Eb Famous King draws the rail and brings the field-best TrackWiz rating of 86.35 into this Stakes sprint at 870 yards. That 31% career win rate is elite for a quarter horse field this deep — nearly one in three starts ends in a win. Trainer Mike Archuleta puts him in the one-hole with Miguel A. Perez up, a combo that figures to control position early in a race where gate speed is everything. At 7/2 on the morning line, this is a fair price on the most accomplished horse in the race.

place5Mister Lights OutML 5/2

Mister Lights Out is the morning-line favorite at 5/2 and backs it up with a 82.94 TrackWiz rating and a solid 25% career win percentage under Oscar Andrade, Jr. Trainer Renee K. Wilson has him pointed here with purpose, and the slight dip in rating compared to Eb Famous King makes him the logical place horse if the top selection gets first run. The value play is keying both in exactas.

show6Ahsome BlossomML 6/1

Ahsome Blossom is the interesting third wheel at 6/1 — a rating of 75.88 makes her legitimately third-best in this field, and Edgar S. Martinez is a capable hand for trainer Bernard B. Baca. The career win percentage of 7% is low, but her overall rating suggests she belongs here and could make up ground in the longer 870-yard format. Worth including in tri tickets as the show anchor.

Race 2

12:30 AM EDT

Stakes · 350 yd · Dirt

An eleven-horse 350-yard sprint with serious chaos potential — the morning-line favorite doesn't match up with the top-rated horses, and our top pick is a legitimate overlay at 8/1.

win7TesstifyML 8/1

Tesstify is the TrackWiz top pick at 8/1 despite carrying the highest rating in the field at 79.79 — that's genuine overlay territory in a sprint where the crowd may chase shorter prices. A 33% career win rate ties for best among the contenders and backs up the number. Christian Cardenas gets the call for trainer Rodolfo G. Valles, and at 350 yards this is pure reaction time and raw speed, where Tesstify's profile stands out. Don't let that morning line scare you off — this is one of the better value plays on the card.

place10Whole Lotta OutlawML 3/1

Whole Lotta Outlaw is the morning-line 3/1 choice and the second-rated horse in the field at 78.37, making this one of those rare cases where the crowd and the TrackWiz model are close to agreement. A 28% career win clip for Jesus Rios Ayala and trainer Savana Canales is a respected combination, and at 350 yards there's little margin for error — this one figures to be right there at the wire. A solid place target.

show6Kid KawligaML 6/1

Kid Kawliga at 6/1 ties for the highest career win rate in the field at 33% and brings a 74.36 rating that makes him third-best on paper. Trainer Heber Deyta-Melendez and jockey Juan Pulido form a solid regional partnership, and in a chaotic eleven-horse short sprint, getting a horse with that win percentage into your trifecta at 6/1 is just smart construction. Don't leave him off the tickets.

Race 3

12:55 AM EDT

Stakes · 400 yd · Dirt

Fly Girl 123 enters this eleven-horse 400-yard Stakes as a clear class standout on ratings, but the field is loaded with live contenders at double-digit prices that could complicate the trifecta.

win9Fly Girl 123ML 5/2

Fly Girl 123 is the standout in Race 3, posting the field's top TrackWiz rating of 87.81 while opening at a fair 5/2 on the morning line. Trainer Heber Deyta-Melendez hands the lines to Brian Cobos Barraza, and with a 22% career win percentage, this filly has shown she can convert when the conditions set up. At 400 yards, gate speed and early positioning matter, and her profile suggests she gets out clean and dares the field to catch her.

place6Cd Favorite LadyML 9/2

Cd Favorite Lady is the second choice in our analysis at 79.90 and 9/2 on the morning line — her 21% career win rate is respectable, and Luis A. Valenzuela is a proven hand in this circuit for trainer Havid Canez. What makes her attractive as a place play is the gap between her rating and the horses behind her; if Fly Girl 123 is caught in traffic or gets a bad break, Cd Favorite Lady is the most likely horse to capitalize.

show7Kissin PerfectML 7/2

Kissin Perfect brings a team-best 27% career win rate and a 65.94 TrackWiz rating that grades third in this field. Trainer Savana Canales and jockey Cesar T. Moreno have worked together before on this circuit, and at 7/2 the morning line reflects real public confidence. She's a strong show anchor and a legitimate trifecta player if this race runs to form.

TrackWiz is giving away full breakdowns on the first three races, and collectively they offer a nice sampler of what today's card is all about. Eb Famous King opens things up in Race 1 at 870 yards — a longer test that rewards horses who rate early rather than burn out of the gate. In Race 2, Tesstify is our top pick at a generous 8/1 morning line in a 350-yard sprint, making this one of the better value plays of the afternoon if the price holds. Fly Girl 123 earns our highest TrackWiz rating among the free races (87.81) in Race 3 at 400 yards and is installed as the 5/2 morning line favorite — a number that looks fair given what our model sees.

The through-line across all three free picks is early quickness. In short-course dirt sprints like these, getting clean position out of the gate matters enormously — there's almost no time to make up ground. Keep that in mind as you build your tickets on Races 1 through 3.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

1:20 AM EDT

Derby · 400 yd · Dirt

The Derby distance of 400 yards features a class conflict — the top-rated horse isn't the morning-line favorite, creating potential value at the top of the ticket while the field is full of horses carrying big career win percentages.

win8Tossin and TurninML 7/2

Tossin and Turnin is our top selection in the Derby with a field-best 86.35 TrackWiz rating and a 36% career win percentage that demands respect in a stakes-level field. Opening at 7/2, trainer Emilio Cadena, Jr. sends out a horse that has consistently performed at a high level, and Juan Pulido gets the mount — a capable jockey in this region. The gap between Tossin and Turnin's rating and the rest of the field is meaningful in a 400-yard sprint where elite-level early speed can make this a wire job.

place4Flying ChanceML 5/2

Flying Chance is the morning-line favorite at 5/2 and doesn't disappoint on our sheet either, posting a 77.95 rating and a jaw-dropping 42% career win rate. Trainer Rodolfo G. Valles puts Joseph Belloc, Jr. up, and that win percentage is one of the best in today's entire card. If Tossin and Turnin draws off on the lead, Flying Chance has the raw winning ability to be right there for second — a natural place play.

show2Rr Famous TachaML 8/1

Rr Famous Tacha is the show pick at 8/1 morning line with a 61.40 rating, but the real story is a 40% career win percentage that would make her the top horse on class in many other races. Trainer Humberto Tena Jr. and Brian Cobos Barraza combine for a dangerous pairing, and if the two top horses draw each other wide or get into a speed duel, Rr Famous Tacha is right there to pick up the pieces. She's an excellent trifecta anchor at a price the crowd may underestimate.

Race 5

1:45 AM EDT

Stakes · 440 yd · Dirt

A tight seven-horse 440-yard Stakes where the top three TrackWiz ratings are separated by less than three points — this is a race that could easily go to any of the top contenders, and the win pick is a genuine overlay.

win1Uncle Eds IdeaML 8/1

Uncle Eds Idea opens at 8/1 but carries the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 79.79 — that's a disconnect worth exploiting. A 27% career win rate is solid for a quarter horse stakes field, and Oscar Andrade, Jr. is one of the more active and accomplished riders on this circuit. Trainer Tammy Kay Johnson has multiple horses on today's card, a sign of a barn running hot, and at 440 yards there's a bit more ground to make up if something goes wrong at the break. The price makes this the best value play in this race.

place2Nothin Like YouML 7/2

Nothin Like You hits the board at 7/2 and brings a 34% career win percentage that leads the field — that means this horse wins more than one in three starts, which is a remarkable clip for any level. Trainer John D. Hammes puts Miguel Josue Ramirez up, and a 77.35 rating is essentially tied with the top horses in this race. As a place pick, Nothin Like You represents both safety and legitimate upside.

show6Ultimate BattleML 5/2

Ultimate Battle at 5/2 is the morning-line favorite, and while our model slightly prefers Uncle Eds Idea at the top, a 77.31 TrackWiz rating means we're not arguing much. Ryder Olmstead rides for trainer Jason L. Olmstead in what is clearly a family operation — those barn-and-rider combinations often carry extra motivation. At 440 yards, a horse that breaks clean and rates close to the pace has every chance to be running at the wire, and Ultimate Battle fits that profile.

Race 6

2:10 AM EDT

Stakes · 870 yd · Dirt

Handin Out Candy towers over this seven-horse 870-yard Stakes field on ratings, but the longer distance and a secondary threat at 8/1 morning line gives the trifecta some interesting construction opportunities.

win3Handin Out CandyML 5/2

Handin Out Candy is the most dominant single-race selection on the afternoon card, posting a 87.81 TrackWiz rating that leads the field by nine full points. A 28% career win rate and the 5/2 morning line suggest the market has some idea of this horse's ability, but the rating says even that price may be short-changing the edge. Trainer Omar Vargas sends Alfredo Sigala out on a horse that should control or press the pace over 870 yards, and at that distance, raw class tends to win out. This is our strongest win selection in the second half of the card.

place4Gjr RoosterML 8/1

Gjr Rooster is the value component here at 8/1, carrying a 78.79 TrackWiz rating and a 21% career win percentage that makes him a legitimate threat for second. Trainer Zackary Stinebaugh puts Ali Rivera aboard, and at a longer 870-yard format there's real opportunity for a well-rated closer to make a big run at the top of the stretch. If Handin Out Candy's early speed softens the field, Gjr Rooster could be running past tiring horses in the final yards.

show5Rock Ya LaterML 7/2

Rock Ya Later comes in at 7/2 on the morning line with a 56.35 rating and an 18% career win percentage for trainer Tammy Kay Johnson. Daniel Antonio Torres takes the mount, and this horse has the pedigree of a trainer who has a feel for which horses are ready on a given day — Johnson has multiple entries today. As a show play in a seven-horse field with a dominant top selection, Rock Ya Later at 7/2 is the logical third-place finisher.

Race 7

2:35 AM EDT

Stakes · 400 yd · Dirt

Flying Bandida tops the TrackWiz ratings in a deep nine-horse 400-yard Stakes, but Catchn Southern Rays at 7/2 brings an elite 42% career win rate that keeps the race honest and the trifecta wide open.

win1Flying BandidaML 9/2

Flying Bandida posts the field's best TrackWiz rating at 84.90 and opens at 9/2 — a price that represents genuine value given the rating advantage. Trainer Jason L. Olmstead puts Ramiro Haro Garcia in the irons, and while the 20% career win percentage is modest, the rating model says this horse performs at an elite level relative to today's competition. In a nine-horse 400-yard sprint where post position and gate speed matter, Flying Bandida's raw ability should be enough to prevail.

place8Catchn Southern RaysML 7/2

Catchn Southern Rays is the horse that keeps us honest about making Flying Bandida a lock. A 42% career win rate is extraordinary and leads this field by a wide margin, and Cristian R. Esqueda rides for trainer Stacy Charette-Hill in what should be a well-prepared effort. At 7/2, the morning line respects the ability, and this is a horse that could easily reverse the order on any given day — making the exacta both ways with the top two a sound strategy.

show2Ohana SpiritML 4/1

Ohana Spirit at 4/1 and a 25% career win rate rounds out the top three on our sheet, with a 69.60 TrackWiz rating that grades clearly third-best. Trainer John A. Stinebaugh and jockey Ali Rivera are a familiar combination on this circuit, and Ohana Spirit's profile suggests a horse that breaks cleanly, rates in mid-pack, and has the late kick to be involved at the wire. Solid trifecta inclusion.

Race 8

3:00 AM EDT

Stakes · 350 yd · Dirt

Mysterious Hero arrives as a heavy-hitting top pick in this ten-horse 350-yard Stakes, but Great Falls and his eye-popping 66% career win rate lurk as a potential spoiler and complicate the exacta.

win10Mysterious HeroML 5/2

Mysterious Hero checks every box for the win here — field-best TrackWiz rating of 87.81, a remarkable 50% career win percentage, and a 5/2 morning line that says the market agrees. Trainer David M. Gomez-Barraza puts Luis Martinez in the saddle for a horse that wins half the time he shows up. At 350 yards, that kind of raw winning ability is the most important variable, and it's hard to make a case to beat Mysterious Hero in this spot.

place1HardtohockML 9/2

Hardtohock is our place selection at 9/2 with an 80.40 TrackWiz rating and a 40% career win rate — numbers that would make him the top pick in most races on today's card. Trainer Samuel Mendoza has four horses in this race alone, a significant stable presence, and Juan Pulido is a trusted hand. The concern is that Mysterious Hero's rating and win percentage is simply better, but Hardtohock's class level makes him a lock for the exotics.

show3Great FallsML 7/2

Great Falls is the sleeper in this race at 7/2 morning line, carrying a 66% career win percentage that is the highest of any horse on the entire day's card. Trainer Mark Brown sends Ricardo Moreno out on a horse that converts at an elite rate, and while the 75.21 TrackWiz rating places him third on our sheet, that win percentage demands respect. If the two top selections get into a speed duel through the short 350-yard sprint, Great Falls has the raw winning instinct to come flying late.

Race 9

3:25 AM EDT

Derby · 400 yd · Dirt

The second Derby of the day at 400 yards features Notoryous as a dominant top selection on both ratings and career win percentage, with Margarets Cowboy making the race more competitive than the favorite's numbers suggest.

win1NotoryousML 7/2

Notoryous enters as our strongest Derby selection of the afternoon, combining a 86.35 TrackWiz rating with a 45% career win percentage — nearly half his career starts end in a victory. Juan Pulido gets the call for trainer Samuel Mendoza, a barn that has horses all over today's card and is clearly sending out fit, ready runners. At 7/2 on the morning line, this isn't a throwaway favorite — the stats back up the price and then some.

place4Margarets CowboyML 5/2

Margarets Cowboy is the morning-line second choice at 5/2 and earns that respect with a 77.21 TrackWiz rating and a 26% career win percentage for trainer John D. Hammes. Miguel Josue Ramirez picks up the mount, and in a 400-yard Derby format where position at the break is everything, a horse with Cowboy's class level is going to be in the mix. If Notoryous gets any interference at the gate, Margarets Cowboy is first in line to capitalize.

show2Corona Streakin JessML 9/2

Corona Streakin Jess rounds out the ticket at 9/2 with a 72.72 TrackWiz rating and a 36% career win percentage that trails only Notoryous in this field. Ali Rivera rides for trainer John A. Stinebaugh, and with that win rate, this is a horse that consistently converts — finishing on the board shouldn't be a problem. At 9/2, including Corona Streakin Jess in trifecta wheels adds value without breaking the bank.

Race 10

3:50 AM EDT

Stakes · 440 yd · Dirt

Kj Desparado closes out the card as the TrackWiz top-rated horse in a ten-horse 440-yard Stakes, but this field is loaded with horses carrying big career win percentages that could make the trifecta a tricky puzzle.

win6Kj DesparadoML 5/2

Kj Desparado is our final best bet of the day — a field-best 87.81 TrackWiz rating paired with a 47% career win percentage that trails only Stetsonn (55%) among horses in this field. Trainer Wesley T. Giles sends out Noe Garcia, Jr. on a horse that should control the pace over 440 yards, and the 5/2 morning line reflects the public's awareness of the talent here. This is a horse that wins nearly half the time, and the rating model says he's running at his peak — a strong play to close out the afternoon.

place2Bold N BeautifulML 9/2

Bold N Beautiful at 9/2 brings a 75.54 TrackWiz rating and a 20% career win percentage for trainer John A. Stinebaugh and jockey Ali Rivera. What makes Bold N Beautiful a compelling place pick is her rating consistency — she grades second in this field on the TrackWiz model, which means the model sees her as a horse that belongs here and should be involved at the wire. At 9/2, the place payoff offers real value.

show4Mysterious CartelML 8/1

Mysterious Cartel is a fascinating show play at 8/1 morning line — a 73.31 TrackWiz rating grades third in the field, but the 43% career win percentage is the real headline. Trainer David M. Gomez-Barraza also sends out Mysterious Hero to win Race 8, showing a barn that is active and confident today. Luis Martinez rides, and at 440 yards, a horse with Mysterious Cartel's win rate at 8/1 is exactly the kind of show play that makes trifectas profitable over the long run.

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Bottom line: Albuquerque is serving up a high-quality 10-race card today with real money-making opportunities scattered throughout. Start with Fly Girl 123 in Race 3 as the anchor of your free-race ticket, keep an eye on Tesstify for value in Race 2, and if you're a TrackWiz subscriber, the Derby doubles in Races 4 and 9 plus the Handin Out Candy–Mysterious Hero exotics combo are not to be missed. Good luck out there — first post is approaching.

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