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Albuquerque Picks & Predictions — September 28, 2026

September 28, 20269 racesAll Albuquerque picks

Happy Monday at Albuquerque Downs. We've got a nine-race all-dirt card on tap for September 28, and conditions couldn't be much more cooperative — partly cloudy skies, a comfortable 75°F, and no weather interference to complicate things. When the track is playing fair, speed figures and pace scenarios do the heavy lifting, and that's exactly where our TrackWiz analysis shines.

The card runs the full spectrum today: a couple of maiden claiming openers to warm things up, a stretch of claiming races in the middle that could throw up some live longshots, and an allowance feature in Race 8 that figures to be the most competitive event of the afternoon. Plenty of angles to work with from top to bottom.

Best Bets

Race 1

7:30 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

A maiden claiming opener where TrackWiz ratings create a clear tier separation — Shenanigans Storm sits well above the field, but the 2/1 price leaves little room for error in an unpredictable first-time-out group.

win5Shenanigans StormML 2/1

Shenanigans Storm carries an 88.54 TrackWiz rating that towers over the competition — the next closest is Pleasin N Teasin at 68.89, a gap of nearly 20 points. Trainer Luis C. Rojero sends this one out at 2/1 on the morning line, a sign the connections have confidence in a first-time effort around 6.5 furlongs on the Albuquerque dirt. In a field of maidens where career win percentages are universally zero, raw ratings and trainer intent become the most reliable signals — and both arrows point to the #5.

place6Pleasin N TeasinML 5/2

Pleasin N Teasin draws the second-highest rating in the field at 68.89 and checks in at 5/2 on the morning line, making her an attractive place option if the favorite falters. Jockey Jose Miguel Vazquez gets the call for trainer Jeff D. Hudson, and at 5.5 furlongs-equivalent distance experience, this one figures to be in the mix late in what should be a competitive finishing kick.

show2Wash MoneyML 4/1

Wash Money posts a 66.19 rating — third-best in the field — and is likely to be a live price at 4/1 for exotics players willing to use multiple horses in the bottom slot. Trainer Dick Cappellucci puts Luis A. Fuentes up, and the modest morning line suggests the connections view this runner as a legitimate contender rather than a field-filler.

Race 2

7:55 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Pleaseusetheportal dominates the ratings sheet in this one-mile claiming contest, but Toma Todo's career win percentage creates a sneaky value angle worth addressing before you build your exotics.

win1PleaseusetheportalML 2/1

Pleaseusetheportal leads the TrackWiz rating board at 88.54 — identical to the top mark from Race 1 — and comes in at 2/1 on the morning line for trainer Carlos C. Gonzalez with Miguel A. Perez in the irons. The one-mile dirt route around Albuquerque will test class and stamina, and this horse's rating edge over the field is considerable. With a 5% career win rate, this runner is still looking for that first score, but the rating gap suggests today's conditions may be the spot.

place5Toma TodoML 4/1

Toma Todo is the value play in this field — a 26% career win percentage is by far the highest in the race, and that kind of closing record at 4/1 morning line deserves attention. Trainer Trevor Rushton puts Alfredo J. Juarez, Jr. aboard, a jockey who shows up multiple times on today's card, and the 68.41 rating backs up the form line with real substance.

show3John JohnML 5/1

John John brings a 57.95 rating and a 15% career win percentage — second-best in the field — while offering 5/1 morning-line value that makes him worth slotting into trifecta exotics. Trainer Victor H. Rodriguez-Flores pairs him with Eduardo Gallardo, and in a one-mile route where pace can collapse, a horse with a respectable form line could easily pick up the pieces for a piece of the purse.

Race 3

8:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Comfortafterchaos looks like the class of this 5.5-furlong claiming field, but Nogal's significant morning-line overlay is the story here — a top-two rating at 10/1 is the kind of number TrackWiz highlights as a legitimate value edge.

win6ComfortafterchaosML 9/2

Comfortafterchaos tops the win column with an 81.29 rating and a standout 25% career win percentage — the highest in this eight-horse field. Trainer Jose R. Gonzalez, Jr. hands the reins to Cerapio Figueroa, and at 9/2 morning line, the price isn't flashy but the profile is sound. A 25% win rate means one in four career starts ends in a win — that's a horse that knows how to find the wire first.

place2NogalML 10/1

Here's where it gets interesting: Nogal is sitting at 10/1 on the morning line but carries a 76.88 TrackWiz rating — second-best in the entire field. Trainer Greg Green sends Miguel A. Perez out, and a 10% career win rate on a horse with this kind of rating suggests the public may be underestimating this one. An overlay of this magnitude at the place spot is exactly the angle to exploit in a competitive claiming affair.

show8Silver TwilightML 3/1

Silver Twilight rounds out our top three with a 76.53 rating and a 16% career win percentage, making this one of the more accomplished horses in the field on a head-to-head basis. Trainer Danny Morales pairs with Kelsi Purcell, and at 3/1 morning line, Silver Twilight should attract public support — which means show payoffs could be modest, but the reliability in exotics is real.

We're unlocking the first three races for everyone today. Shenanigans Storm opens the card in a 6½-furlong maiden claimer and carries our highest TrackWiz rating among the free picks — that kind of edge in a maiden event is worth noting. In Race 2, Pleaseusetheportal stretches out to a mile in a claiming field, and our models like how that distance suits the profile. Comfortafterchaos is a mild overlay at 9/2 morning line in the 5½-furlong Race 3 sprint — if you're looking for a little value early in the day, that's where to start.

With a dry, fast-playing dirt surface expected all afternoon, front-runners and pace-pressers have been rewarded at this meet. Keep that bias in mind as you build your early tickets — it threads through all three of these free plays.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

8:45 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Sanger sets up as a commanding favorite in this Starter Optional Claiming mile, but Ten Figures at 6/1 is a live threat with shared win percentage and the best average speed figure of anyone in the field.

win1SangerML 5/2

Sanger leads the TrackWiz board at 87.81 and posts a 21% career win percentage for trainer Carlos C. Gonzalez, the same barn that fires Pleaseusetheportal in Race 2 — a good sign that this stable is live on the card today. Miguel A. Perez gets the mount again, doubling up from Race 2, and in a Starter Optional Claiming field at one mile, a horse with this rating edge and an experienced conditioner at the helm is exactly the kind of play we want to anchor a sequence.

place3Rocks a Black SuitML 3/1

Rocks a Black Suit checks in at 70.84 with a 17% career win percentage and draws 3/1 on the morning line for trainer Sherry Armstrong and jockey Enrique Portillo Gomez. The rating sits solidly in second place in this field, and a 17% win rate means this horse regularly contends — which translates well to a place ticket in a competitive starter field.

show6Ten FiguresML 6/1

Ten Figures catches the eye with an average speed figure of 55 — tied for the top mark in this race — and a 21% career win percentage that matches Sanger's at the top of the leaderboard. Trainer Danny Morales saddles Oscar Andrade, Jr. here, and at 6/1, there's real value in using Ten Figures underneath in tri and superfecta bets. Don't let the public sleep on this one.

Race 5

9:10 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Holdwhatyougot looks like the class standout in this sprint, but Marked Cash's 14% career win rate and top-end speed figures make the exacta worth constructing carefully around these two.

win6HoldwhatyougotML 2/1

Holdwhatyougot comes in with an 88.54 TrackWiz rating — the highest mark on the entire card today — and trainer Dick Cappellucci deploys Alfredo J. Juarez, Jr., one of the busiest jockeys on today's program. At 2/1 morning line, you're not getting a bargain, but a rating that dominates the field is the kind of signal that gets harder to fade the more you study the numbers. The 11% career win rate is modest, but in a 5.5-furlong claiming sprint, raw ability tends to cut through.

place1Marked CashML 4/1

Marked Cash is a strong place play at 4/1 — a 75.62 rating and an average speed figure of 55 tie for the top of the field on the figures side. Trainer Dick Cappellucci runs both Marked Cash and Holdwhatyougot in this race, which is worth noting — when a barn double-barrels, they often have a clear preference, but the second horse frequently hits the board. Oscar Andrade, Jr. handles this one, and a 14% career win percentage backs up the notion that Marked Cash competes regularly.

show4Nobody's PerfectML 6/1

Nobody's Perfect comes in as a show value play at 6/1 with a 62.52 rating — third-best in the field. The interesting wrinkle here is a 52 average speed figure, which trails the top competitors, but Rodolfo Guerra is an experienced hand at Albuquerque and trainer Greg Green knows how to spot a horse in the right spot. In a race where the top two may duel it out, a relaxed closer could easily pick up third.

Race 6

9:35 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

This maiden claiming sprint features a tight battle between Shiny Shores and Tinaja at the top of the ratings — two horses separated by only 3.5 points — making the exacta box here an attractive play for anyone who can't separate them.

win7Shiny ShoresML 5/2

Shiny Shores leads the field with an 87.81 TrackWiz rating and the top average speed figure in the race at 55. Trainer Martin Manuel Valdez-Cabral — one of the most active barns on today's card — puts Alfredo J. Juarez, Jr. aboard, a booking that signals intent. For a maiden horse at 5/2, the combination of top rating and a sharp jockey call makes this the most confident win selection of the night.

place4TinajaML 7/2

Tinaja sits just below at 84.29 and is priced at 7/2 morning line for trainer Alberto Amparan with Aldo Arboleda riding. In a maiden field where every horse is still looking for their first win, the second-highest rating in the race is a reliable indicator of competitive effort, and this one figures to be fighting Shiny Shores all the way to the wire.

show5I'm Just PlayingML 3/1

I'm Just Playing carries a 73.05 rating — third in this seven-horse field — and is posted at 3/1 morning line for trainer Simon J. Buechler with Christian Ramos in the saddle. The rating gap between third and fourth is meaningful here, and in a maiden field where upsets happen, having a 73-rated horse in the show slot of your trifecta provides solid insurance.

Race 7

10:00 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

El Chino Vaca and Gangster form a clear top tier in this six-furlong claiming race, separated by just over three rating points — expect the pace to be honest and the finish to be tight between these two.

win4El Chino VacaML 3/1

El Chino Vaca tops the board at 87.08 for trainer Daniel Hernandez with Miguel A. Perez getting a third mount on the card. The 3/1 morning line represents solid value given the rating edge, and an average speed figure of 55 ties for the best in the field. A 11% career win percentage is workmanlike, but in a six-furlong dirt sprint at this level, it's the speed figures and TrackWiz rating that do the heavy lifting.

place7GangsterML 7/2

Gangster profiles as the most dangerous threat to the top pick at 83.88 and 7/2 morning line — trainer Sherry Armstrong and jockey Christian Ramos combine for what looks like a live place horse. The 5% career win rate is low, but ratings of this magnitude at 7/2 suggest a horse that consistently runs well without always getting to the winner's circle. Place tickets here are worth it.

show1Cross TemperML 9/2

Cross Temper is the most accomplished horse in the field by win percentage — a 25% career win rate is exceptional and commands respect at 9/2 morning line. Trainer Karina Aldavaz puts Rodolfo Guerra up, and a 75.01 rating keeps this one in the legitimate conversation. With that win percentage, Cross Temper knows how to compete — fitting it in the show slot of exotics seems like a smart hedge.

Race 8

10:25 PM EDT

Allowance · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

The allowance feature is an intriguing battle between Todd W. Fincher's Group Photo and the TrackWiz top-rated Dreamily — two horses within 3.2 points of each other in a field where Songcat's 33% win rate lurks as a dangerous closer.

win7DreamilyML 7/2

Dreamily leads the allowance field at 86.35 for trainer Sherry Armstrong and jockey Enrique Portillo Gomez, who also handles Rocks a Black Suit in Race 4. The 7/2 morning line is reasonable value in an allowance field, and a 14% career win percentage is standard for this condition. What separates Dreamily is the combination of top rating and the Sherry Armstrong barn, which shows up multiple times on the card — a trainer who clearly has horses in form today.

place2Group PhotoML 3/1

Group Photo is a strong place play at 3/1 — an 83.19 rating and a 20% career win rate make this Todd W. Fincher trainee one of the most accomplished horses in the field. Oscar Andrade, Jr. gets the mount, and with an average speed figure of 55, this one has the raw tools to press the pace and sustain it through 5.5 furlongs. The Fincher barn also has American Prada in the same race, suggesting genuine stable strength at Albuquerque today.

show8SongcatML 9/2

Songcat is the one to round out your trifecta at 9/2 — a 33% career win percentage is the best in this field and makes this runner a legitimate threat to steal the show. Trainer Joel H. Marr puts Luis A. Valenzuela up, and an average speed figure of 56 is the highest in the race. High win percentage plus the top speed figure at a double-digit win rate doesn't happen often — Songcat belongs in every exotic you build here.

Race 9

10:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

The finale is a wide-open 6.5-furlong claiming affair with ten horses and three legitimate top-rated contenders within five points of each other — pace scenario and post position will matter, and the value case for Wild Steel at 8/1 is hard to ignore.

win7Gypsy WildcatML 5/2

Gypsy Wildcat leads our selections at 81.75 with a 5/2 morning line — trainer Martin Manuel Valdez-Cabral, one of the most active outfits on the card today, puts Christian Ramos aboard for what shapes up as a pace-pressing trip over 6.5 furlongs. An average speed figure of 55 matches the top tier in this field, and while a 9% career win rate is modest, the rating places this horse clearly at the top of a competitive ten-horse field.

place4Wild SteelML 8/1

Wild Steel is the value angle in this race — an 8/1 morning line on a horse with a 78.83 TrackWiz rating is a significant overlay. Trainer Andres Gonzalez sends Miguel A. Perez out, who is riding well today across multiple races, and the 55 average speed figure is right there with the best in the field. A 3% career win rate might scare off casual bettors, but that's exactly what creates the value — this horse's rating says it belongs, and the price says you're getting paid.

show2JawdropperML 10/1

Jawdropper rounds out the top three at 76.88 and 10/1 morning line — another overlay in a race full of intriguing prices. Trainer Alberto Amparan and jockey Francisco Amparan team up here, a family barn connection that often signals insider confidence, and a 7% career win rate on a horse rated this high suggests results are coming. At 10/1, slotting Jawdropper into trifecta and superfecta tickets is exactly the kind of play that separates recreational bettors from sharpies.

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Bottom line for September 28 at Albuquerque: Shenanigans Storm is our top-rated play of the day, the early card sets up nicely for pace-pressing types, and the allowance in Race 8 is the race to watch for serious bettors. Free picks get you through the first three races — subscribers have everything they need to attack all nine. Good luck out there.

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