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Albuquerque Picks & Predictions — September 27, 2026

September 27, 20269 racesAll Albuquerque picks

Albuquerque is dealing out a full nine-race Sunday card under a cloudy sky with temperatures sitting at a comfortable 75°F. No rain in the mix means the dirt should be consistent all afternoon — good news if you're trying to handicap pace and project speed figures with confidence.

The card is a genuine mixed bag: you've got short-burst quarter-horse sprints in the early races — some as short as 300 yards — before the card pivots to longer thoroughbred routes, capping off with a one-mile Stakes in Race 8. That kind of variety keeps things interesting whether you're a sprint specialist or a route handicapper.

Three races are open to all TrackWiz readers, and our top-rated free picks carry TrackWiz ratings as high as 86 — so there's plenty to work with before you even touch the premium card.

Best Bets

Race 1

7:30 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 300 yd · Dirt

A wide-open maiden claimer over the short 300-yard sprint, where TrackWiz ratings reveal a clear top tier but the maiden tag means nothing is guaranteed in a field of first-timers.

win4Runaway TemptingML 7/2

Runaway Tempting tops our TrackWiz ratings at 86.35 — the highest mark in the field — and draws a morning line of 7/2 that reflects legitimate market respect. In a 300-yard dash, it's all about breaking sharp and running a straight line, and trainer Jason L. Driver puts Raul Ortega in the irons, a combination worth watching. With no career starts to cloud the picture, we're leaning on the rating edge and the morning line as our primary signals here.

place3One Quick DashML 3/1

One Quick Dash sits just a hair below the top at 84.49 on the TrackWiz scale and gets the 3/1 morning line tag, making this the co-favorite matchup of the race. Brian Cobos Barraza takes the mount for trainer Jose A. Gonzalez, and at a true sprint distance like 300 yards, a horse with this kind of pre-race profile can absolutely get up for a piece. If Runaway Tempting stumbles at the break, One Quick Dash is right there to capitalize.

show2Heza Fast ChimesML 9/2

Heza Fast Chimes lands third in our ratings (70.76) and is posted at 9/2 on the morning line — respectable odds for a horse with a clear class edge over the lower-rated half of this field. Francisco Zamora rides for trainer Jaime Dominguez, and the rating gap between this horse and the horses below it in the order is significant. In a maiden sprint, you want horses that project well on paper, and Heza Fast Chimes qualifies as a logical exotic anchor.

Race 2

7:55 PM EDT

Claiming · 400 yd · Dirt

A claiming sprint at 400 yards where First Watchful Eye's elite career win percentage sets her apart, but a sneaky longshot price on Suspiciously Hot gives the exotics some real juice.

win4First Watchful EyeML 7/2

First Watchful Eye is the standout in our TrackWiz model at 68.59, but the number that really jumps off the page is her 25% career win rate — the highest in this field. Trainer Alejandro Garcia sends out Cerapio Figueroa, and at 7/2 on the morning line, this isn't a price you're going to love, but the consistency angle is real. In a 400-yard claiming race, horses that know how to win tend to keep winning, and this filly's record backs that up.

place10Suspiciously HotML 20/1

Suspiciously Hot is our place pick at a juicy 20/1 morning line, and that price makes her the most interesting horse on the ticket. She carries a 10% career win rate and a TrackWiz rating of 62.29 — actually the second-highest rating in the field — which is a meaningful disconnect from her odds. Jacob Enriquez gets the mount for trainer Luis Daniel Iturralde, and if the market is sleeping on her, this could be a real overlay to catch in the exacta.

show3Eagle HartML 3/1

Eagle Hart checks in with a 12% career win rate and a 57.53 TrackWiz rating, landing him comfortably in the top third of this field. James A. Flores rides for trainer Arnulfo Cardenas, and the 3/1 morning line suggests the market has him squarely in the mix. He's a logical show anchor for anyone playing the tri or looking for a structured exotic ticket.

Race 3

8:20 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 350 yd · Dirt

T Bar Grand Leona towers over this maiden field on ratings — but at 6/1 in a wide-open 350-yard maiden race, there's legitimate price on the top pick and an intriguing second tier worth including in your exotics.

win11T Bar Grand LeonaML 6/1

T Bar Grand Leona is the clear standout here with an 82.71 TrackWiz rating — more than 19 points clear of the next-best horse, If Im Lethal. Randy Vega picks up the mount for trainer Joaquin Lopez, and the 6/1 morning line is honestly a gift given the rating separation. In maiden events, big rating gaps don't always translate, but a spread this wide is hard to ignore in a short sprint, and this is our strongest play in Race 3.

place8If Im LethalML 7/2

If Im Lethal rates second in our model at 63.42 and draws the 7/2 morning line, making her the public's second choice — which lines up with our rankings. Francisco Zamora hops aboard for trainer Jacob Renteria, and at 350 yards the pace scenario is simple: break clean and run hard. This filly fits as the most likely bridesmaid in the race and is worth including on top in all your exotics beneath the top pick.

show7Ready to WinML 9/2

Ready to Win sits at 57.38 in our ratings and gets posted at 9/2, which is reasonable value for a horse in the third tier of this field. Luis Martinez takes the call for trainer Manuel Rodolfo Rodriguez, and the name may be on the nose — this one has the profile to sneak into the money in a wide-open maiden sprint. Include her in your show parlays and tri combinations for a little bottom-end coverage.

The first three races give us a nice cross-section of the short-side game. Runaway Tempting opens the card in a 300-yard Maiden Claiming sprint with a TrackWiz rating of 86.35 — that's a strong number for a maiden at this level, and at 7/2 on the morning line, the value is there. In Race 2, First Watchful Eye steps into a 400-yard Claiming spot; the rating of 68.59 is the lowest of our free picks, so treat this one as a competitive race where price and pace scenario matter as much as our top selection. Then comes T Bar Grand Leona in the 350-yard Maiden Claiming in Race 3 — a 6/1 morning line against an 82.71 rating is exactly the kind of overlay angle we love to highlight.

One thread tying these three together: all three races are contested on dirt at ultra-short distances where early quickness is everything. A horse that breaks clean and gets to the front immediately has a massive structural edge. Keep that in mind if you're building any multi-race wagers off the free selections.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

8:45 PM EDT

Allowance · 870 yd · Dirt

An allowance route at 870 yards — the longest quarter-horse-style distance on the card — where three horses are tightly bunched on ratings and a 30% career winner could steal the show at a fair price.

win9Mucho ZmokeML 9/2

Mucho Zmoke is our top selection at 81.53 on the TrackWiz scale and brings the most impressive career win rate in the field at 30% — a number that screams consistency. Francisco Amparan takes the mount for trainer Wesley T. Giles, and at 9/2 on the morning line, you're getting a legitimate top-rated horse at a price that offers some value. The 870-yard distance is a grind compared to the sprints on this card, and horses with proven winning habits tend to separate late.

place4MendelML 7/2

Mendel sits one tick below at 79.63 in our ratings and draws 7/2 on the morning line — the co-second choice with Devons Cartel. Oscar Andrade Jr. pilots for trainer Rodolfo G. Valles, and a 20% career win rate confirms this isn't a horse that just fills out a field. He figures to be forwardly placed and dangerous late, and if Mucho Zmoke takes a step back, Mendel is right there to take the money.

show2Devons CartelML 3/1

Devons Cartel rates 78.25 in our model and carries a sparkling 24% career win percentage, which is the second-best mark in this field. Jose Enrique Ortiz rides for Salvador R. Soto, and the 3/1 morning line reflects legitimate public confidence. At a route distance like 870 yards, a horse with Devons Cartel's winning pedigree is a logical anchor in your exacta and trifecta tickets.

Race 5

9:10 PM EDT

Allowance · 330 yd · Dirt

Jm Famous Wynn enters as the class of this allowance sprint with a 33% career win rate and the top TrackWiz rating, but Hs Shotgun and Lilys Whistlin By keep this from being a forgone conclusion.

win9Jm Famous WynnML 5/2

Jm Famous Wynn is the horse to beat here, and the numbers back it up emphatically — 87.81 TrackWiz rating (tops in the field) and a 33% career win rate that is genuinely elite at this level. Luis Martinez gets the mount for trainer Tony E. Sedillo, and the 5/2 morning line makes this the deserving favorite. In a 330-yard allowance sprint, a horse who wins at this clip is exactly the kind of play you're making a foundation bet on.

place1Hs ShotgunML 9/2

Hs Shotgun rates 82.65 and posts a 21% career win rate — both figures that would make him the top pick in most other races on this card. Jacob Enriquez rides for Angel E. Dominguez, and at 9/2, there's a bit of juice here for a horse this accomplished. He's the most logical landing spot if Jm Famous Wynn doesn't fire at his best, and is the clear key horse to use underneath in your exotics.

show3Lilys Whistlin ByML 8/1

Lilys Whistlin By comes in at 71.25 on our ratings and shows a 9% career win rate — modest, but in a 10-horse field at 8/1 on the morning line, you're getting fair value for a horse in the upper tier of the field. Brian Cobos Barraza takes the call for trainer Heber Deyta-Melendez, and the rating puts her clearly ahead of the bottom half of this field. She's the right choice to anchor the show slot in your trifecta tickets.

Race 6

9:35 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Regal's Charm is a dominant favorite on our ratings in this 5½-furlong claimer, but Max's Maxine and Flaquita give the race some teeth and could make the exacta interesting.

win1Regal's CharmML 5/2

Regal's Charm is as clear-cut as it gets tonight — 87.81 TrackWiz rating is the top mark in the field, and an average speed figure of 55 puts her right in line with the top performers in this race. Erick Medellin has the call for trainer Danny Morales, who also saddles Flaquita, showing confidence across the barn. A 13% career win rate is steady rather than spectacular, but the raw ratings advantage here is commanding enough to make Regal's Charm our most confident win selection of the evening.

place3Max's MaxineML 3/1

Max's Maxine rates 79.89 in our model — a solid 8-point gap behind the top pick but clearly ahead of the rest — and matches the 55 average speed figure of the top tier. Luis Ramon Rodriguez rides for trainer Stetson Rushton, and the 3/1 morning line reflects the public's confidence in this horse as the main threat. With a 7% career win rate, she doesn't win as often as her speed suggests she should, which actually makes her more interesting in the place spot.

show5FlaquitaML 7/2

Flaquita checks in at 61.5 on our ratings and also logs a 55 average speed figure, keeping her competitive in a pace scenario where several horses figure to match up evenly through the turn. Sachin Parris rides for trainer Danny Morales — the same barn as the top pick — and at 7/2 on the morning line, she's not a deep value play but is a logical third in a race where the top two are well-defined. Use her to round out your trifecta and exacta boxes.

Race 7

10:00 PM EDT

Allowance · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Eyecandothisallday and Country Club Sport look like the class of this allowance field at 5½ furlongs, setting up a potential pace duel between two high-rated horses with strong connections.

win1EyecandothisalldayML 5/2

Eyecandothisallday tops the TrackWiz ratings at 87.81 and posts an average speed figure of 56 — tied for the highest in the race — while carrying an 18% career win rate. Miguel A. Perez takes the mount for trainer Daniel Hernandez, and the 5/2 morning line is exactly where you'd expect to see the top-rated horse in a competitive allowance field. The combination of elite rating, above-average speed, and a top jockey makes this our win pick, even if the short price limits the upside.

place7Country Club SportML 3/1

Country Club Sport is right behind at 81.21 in our ratings and brings a matching 18% career win rate, making the top two horses in this race remarkably similar on paper. Oscar Andrade Jr. rides for trainer Todd W. Fincher — a well-regarded combination at this level — and the 3/1 morning line gives you slightly better value than the favorite. If the pace scenario sets up kindly for a presser or stalker, Country Club Sport is positioned to overtake Eyecandothisallday in the lane.

show4Hold My ScotchML 7/2

Hold My Scotch rates 64.44 in our model and carries a 10% career win rate with a 55 average speed figure that puts him right in the pack of the mid-tier runners. Rodolfo Guerra takes the mount for trainer Casey T. Lambert, and the 7/2 morning line makes him the third choice — a fair reflection of where he sits in the pecking order. He's a logical show anchor and trifecta inclusion if the top two battle each other into submission.

Race 8

10:25 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 mi · Dirt

The stakes race at one mile is headlined by Selective Hearing, whose 40% career win rate is the single most eye-catching number on tonight's entire card — but Carl Erskine at 10/1 is the value ticket to watch.

win9Selective HearingML 7/2

Selective Hearing brings a 40% career win rate to a stakes field — that is a genuinely remarkable number that dwarfs everyone else in this race. Luis A. Fuentes rides for trainer Simon J. Buechler, and the 86.35 TrackWiz rating confirms this isn't just a win-percentage anomaly — the horse rates as the clear best on our model too. An average speed figure of 56 (highest in the field) rounds out the case: this is our most statistically supported top pick of the night, and the 7/2 morning line is still workable.

place4Carl ErskineML 10/1

Carl Erskine is the value angle in this race, and it's a real one — 75.36 TrackWiz rating (second-best in the field) at a generous 10/1 morning line. Gabriel Medrano takes the mount for trainer Martin Manuel Valdez-Cabral, and an 18% career win rate tells you this horse is capable of getting to the wire first. At a mile on dirt, pace scenarios can shuffle the deck, and a horse with this much upside at this price deserves a spot in your exacta and trifecta plays.

show7Tapit WarriorML 9/2

Tapit Warrior rates 55.09 in our model and carries a 16% career win rate with a 9/2 morning line — reasonable odds for a horse sitting in the middle of this stakes field. Jose L. Torres rides for trainer Edward J. Kereluk, who also trains Daneyko, giving the barn two shots in this race. At a mile, horses that can settle and find a rhythm often pick up pieces, and Tapit Warrior fits the profile of a grinder who could sneak into the money at a fair price.

Race 9

10:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Race 9 closes the card with a fascinating 6½-furlong claiming battle where Ted and Truckin are separated by just 0.07 rating points — basically a coin flip on paper — setting up one of the most competitive finishes of the night.

win6TedML 9/2

Ted edges out our top spot with an 84.9 TrackWiz rating and a 55 average speed figure, and Alfredo J. Juarez Jr. in the irons is a rider who knows how to deliver in key spots. Trainer Dick Cappellucci has this horse pointed at the right spot, and the 9/2 morning line gives you a touch more value than the public's favorite. It's razor-thin at the top of this field, but Ted's rating edge — however slight — earns the top position on our ticket.

place2TruckinML 4/1

Truckin is essentially co-equal with our top pick at 84.83 on the ratings — just 0.07 behind Ted — and brings a 54 average speed figure and 15% career win rate to the table. Christian Ramos takes the mount for trainer Sherry Armstrong, and the 4/1 morning line makes this horse the public's choice at the top. In a race this tight, having both Ted and Truckin in your exacta both ways is a defensible approach, and Truckin is the most likely alternative to grab the win.

show9Silver ScreenML 5/2

Silver Screen enters with a 76.66 TrackWiz rating and a 25% career win rate — one of the better win percentages among the horses in this field — and Rodolfo Guerra rides for trainer Trevor Rushton. The 5/2 morning line makes Silver Screen the actual morning-line favorite, which means the market sees something our ratings rank third. A 55 average speed figure is competitive, and the discrepancy between the morning-line position and our model rating creates an interesting dynamic — don't leave Silver Screen out of your trifecta tickets.

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Bottom line for today at Albuquerque: Runaway Tempting and T Bar Grand Leona are the standout free plays, with the Stakes showdown featuring Selective Hearing as the marquee event of the afternoon. The conditions are clean, the card is diverse, and the value spots are there for the disciplined bettor. Subscribers can access the full nine-race breakdown — pace projections, exotic tickets, and all — at TrackWiz Premium. Good luck out there.

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