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Albuquerque Picks & Predictions — September 16, 2026

September 16, 20269 racesAll Albuquerque picks

We've got a nine-race Wednesday card at Albuquerque Downs and conditions are about as good as they get in the high desert — partly cloudy skies and a comfortable 75°F. The track is getting a dry, fast surface, which historically rewards early speed and sharp gate horses, especially at the short quarter-mile sprints that anchor the quarter horse portion of this card.

The mix today is interesting: four quarter horse-style sprints (including a pair of 400-yard maiden dashes) share the program with five longer thoroughbred routes ranging from five furlongs out to seven. That crossover card format keeps things lively and opens up some creative multi-race wagering angles for the patient player.

TrackWiz analysis covers all nine races today. Three are unlocked for every reader, with the remaining six available to subscribers. Let's set the table.

Best Bets

Race 1

7:30 PM EDT

Maiden · 400 yd · Dirt

A wide-open 400-yard maiden sprint where TrackWiz ratings separate a clear top tier from the field — but with all zeroes in the win column, upsets are very much on the table.

win6Someone Elses KissML 5/2

Someone Elses Kiss earns the top TrackWiz rating in this field at 87.81 — a significant gap above the second-rated Powerful Knockout at 68.04. At 5/2 on the morning line, she's not a throwaway chalk; the rating edge is real and consistent with how we've seen top-rated maidens perform at short sprint distances. Jockey Luis Martinez gets the call for trainer David M. Gomez-Barraza, and with a field of first-timers at 400 yards, breaking clean and rating high is about as good a recipe as you can hope for.

place5Powerful KnockoutML 7/2

Powerful Knockout sits second in the TrackWiz ratings at 68.04 and draws the 5 post with jockey Jacob Enriquez and trainer Tony E. Sedillo. In a short-dash maiden event where the margin between horses can be razor-thin, a horse with this kind of rating separation from the middle of the pack is a logical place saver. At 7/2 on the morning line, there's fair value here in the exacta underneath.

show2Nonika CartelML 9/2

Nonika Cartel checks in with a 61.15 TrackWiz rating — third-best in the field — and connects with jockey Gabriel Medrano for trainer Daniel Hernandez. In 400-yard dashes, post position and break can scramble the order in a hurry, making a third-rated horse with legitimate upside a smart inclusion in trifecta plays. The 9/2 morning line offers a touch of value if the top two jostle for position.

Race 2

7:55 PM EDT

Claiming · 870 yd · Dirt

This 870-yard claiming sprint is a three-horse shootout at the top of the ratings, with Jolie Candy, Finglas Lad, and Billy de Kid all bunched together — and a significant drop-off after that trio.

win1Jolie CandyML 6/1

Jolie Candy carries the field's highest TrackWiz rating at 82.71 and shows the most encouraging raw numbers on paper — a 27% career win rate and an average speed figure of 56. That win percentage is notably strong for this level and suggests she knows how to close out a race. Jockey Alfredo Sigala gets the mount for trainer Jim Bob Arrington, and at 6/1 on the morning line, this is a legitimate value play if she fires her best effort at this distance.

place6Finglas LadML 7/2

Finglas Lad is right on Jolie Candy's heels with an 82.00 rating, and his average speed figure of 57 is actually the best among the top contenders. Trainer Arthur Ray Lucero puts Jose L. Torres up, and a 17% career win rate in claiming company tells you he's competitive without being dominant — exactly the profile of a horse who lands in the exacta more often than he wins. The morning line of 7/2 reflects public respect, and rightly so.

show5Danz At ColfaxML 9/2

Danz At Colfax rates third in the field at 76.19 with a matching average speed figure of 57 — tied for best in the race with Finglas Lad. Trainer Alberto Amparan uses his own jockey Francisco Amparan, which is often a trainer/jockey combo worth noting as a confidence signal. The 18% career win rate is solid for claiming ranks, and at 9/2 he's a natural fit in the trifecta.

Race 3

8:20 PM EDT

Maiden · 400 yd · Dirt

Another 400-yard maiden dash, but this one features a more top-heavy rating structure — Apollitical Duchess stands out clearly, though a maiden sprint can always turn on a single jump.

win3Apollitical DuchessML 4/1

Apollitical Duchess posts an 85.62 TrackWiz rating that leads this field by more than seven points over second-ranked Kj Loco Motion. Jockey Jose Luis Enriquez rides for trainer Marco A. Flores, and in a short-distance maiden event, the combination of elite rating and a confident jockey booking is hard to fade. She opens at 4/1 on the morning line, which represents genuine value given the rating advantage — not a horse being underestimated, but one the public hasn't fully caught up to yet.

place7Kj Loco MotionML 9/2

Kj Loco Motion rates second at 78.43 and connects with jockey Jorge Nieto-Saenz for trainer Edwin A. Martinez. A gap of roughly seven points below the top pick still puts Kj Loco Motion well clear of the third-rated horse, making her the natural exacta partner. The 9/2 morning line is workable, and in a maiden sprint where anything can happen at the break, she's the most logical alternative if Apollitical Duchess misses.

show5Political DreamsML 5/2

Political Dreams brings a 74.88 rating into this spot and draws the 5 post with Gabriel Medrano — one of the more active jockeys on this card. Trainer Manuel Rodolfo Rodriguez has her listed at 5/2, suggesting morning-line makers see her as live despite a rating slightly below the top two. She's a sensible trifecta inclusion for those looking to box the top trio, especially given her near-even odds could mean the market has information we haven't fully accounted for.

The three free races give you a solid foundation to build your day around. Someone Elses Kiss opens the card in a 400-yard maiden sprint at 5/2 on the morning line — our top-rated horse of the entire card with an 87.81 TrackWiz rating, which tells you she profiles as a legitimate standout in what should be a competitive field of first-time starters. At that distance, the break and the first jump are everything, so watch for her in the gate.

Race 2 flips the script with Jolie Candy in a longer 870-yard claiming sprint — more ground to make up mistakes, but also more time for pace scenarios to shake out. She's going off at 6/1 on the morning line, and that's a number worth circling. Our analysis likes her enough to make her the top pick despite the longer morning line odds. Then in Race 3, Apollitical Duchess shows up in another 400-yard maiden at 4/1, bringing an 85.62 rating to a race that could get chalky fast once money hits the windows. On a dry, consistent Albuquerque surface, gate speed is king — and these three free picks all profile as horses that should be near the front early.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

8:45 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

A seven-furlong maiden claiming route that shifts the card from quarter-horse dashes to a distance where fitness, pace scenario, and speed figures all carry more weight — and two horses are nearly deadlocked at the top.

win3La TentatriceML 9/2

La Tentatrice earns the top TrackWiz rating in this field at 84.90 and shows an average speed figure of 54 on the dirt — matching the mid-pack pace but with the overall profile edge. Jockey Luis A. Valenzuela gets the call for trainer Stetson Rushton, and at 9/2 on the morning line she's a shade of value relative to her rating. In a maiden claiming route where the pace is likely to be honest, a horse with the top composite rating often finds the front end of the exacta.

place5Miss MadameML 5/2

Miss Madame is a razor-thin second at 84.78 — just 0.12 points behind La Tentatrice — and also averages a 54 speed figure on the route. Trainer Rafael S. Barraza is an interesting note here: he also saddles Siempre Naman in this race, splitting his barn between the second and third picks. Jockey Aldo Arboleda rides her at 5/2 morning line, and with two Barraza runners in the mix, the trainer clearly has confidence in this spot.

show6Siempre NamanML 8/1

Siempre Naman, the second Barraza entry in this race, rates third at 73.22 — a meaningful step below the top two but still well clear of the remainder. The 8/1 morning line makes her the standout value in trifecta exotics, particularly given the trainer's dual-entry presence. Luis Ramon Rodriguez takes the mount, and in a maiden route where pace can spread the field, a third contender with solid rating backing is a worthy inclusion.

Race 5

9:10 PM EDT

Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

The pace scenario in this seven-furlong claimer gets complicated fast — three horses rate above 85 and all carry different pace profiles, setting up a potential barn-burner with a legitimate exacta battle among the top trio.

win4ConsecratedML 3/1

Consecrated tops the TrackWiz ratings at 87.08 and brings a 10% career win rate into this spot with a 53 average speed figure. Trainer Stetson Rushton puts Luis A. Valenzuela in the irons at a morning-line 3/1 — which is the shortest price in the field and reflects genuine market confidence. In a seven-furlong claiming event, a horse with this kind of composite rating and a capable jockey booking has all the ingredients to wire the field or grind out a strong late kick.

place2Citizen BarrettML 7/2

Citizen Barrett rates second at 85.18 with a 13% career win rate — one of the better strike rates in this field — and shows a 54 average speed figure, a tick better than Consecrated. Jockey Alejandro Medellin rides for trainer Jeffrey J. Trujillo at 7/2, and the career win percentage here tells you this horse has a habit of hitting the board. If Consecrated handles the pace pressure, Citizen Barrett is the most likely beneficiary of any early chaos.

show6American SecretsML 5/2

American Secrets is the most intriguing piece of this trifecta at 5/2 with a 22% career win rate — the highest of any horse in this field. That win percentage stands out in claiming company and says this horse can compete at a higher rate than her 85.08 rating might suggest on its own. Gabriel Medrano rides for trainer Martin Manuel Valdez-Cabral, and in a race where the top three are separated by just over two rating points, she's far from a throwaway in the bottom slot.

Race 6

9:35 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

This 5½-furlong maiden special weight race features a tightly bunched ratings cluster at the top — the top five horses are separated by fewer than six points, making this one of the most competitive and unpredictable races on the card.

win4Is ProbableML 5/2

Is Probable edges to the top of our picks at a 57.50 TrackWiz rating, landing at 5/2 on the morning line with Francisco Amparan riding for trainer Alberto Amparan — an in-barn jockey connection that usually signals confidence from the shedrow. With no prior speed figures on record, this is a projection-heavy race, but the Amparan family combo at a short price in an MSW event deserves respect. In a debut or lightly raced scenario, trainer intent often tells you as much as past performance.

place3Take TresML 3/1

Take Tres rates just a hair below at 56.67 but is notable for being one of the few horses in this field with an average speed figure on record — a 55 on the dirt at this distance. Jockey Cerapio Figueroa rides for trainer Rafael S. Barraza, who is clearly active on this card. An actual speed figure is a meaningful edge in a MSW field of mostly unknown quantities, and the 3/1 morning line is fair given that advantage.

show5Cyber SwordML 7/2

Cyber Sword checks in at 55.83 with Oscar Andrade, Jr. aboard for trainer Robertino Diodoro — and that trainer name is worth noting as one of the more accomplished conditioners represented today. At 7/2 on the morning line, Cyber Sword sits in a fair price range to anchor trifecta exotics. In a compressed ratings race like this, the trainer angle can be a meaningful tiebreaker, and Diodoro's pedigree lends weight to this runner.

Race 7

10:00 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Max's Maxine comes in as a clear class-best in this six-furlong claimer, but Go Water looms as a sneaky threat, and the mid-card pace could shuffle things up heading into the lane.

win8Max's MaxineML 5/2

Max's Maxine leads all comers with an 87.81 TrackWiz rating — the highest mark in this field — and shows a 55 average speed figure with a 7% career win rate. Trainer Stetson Rushton puts veteran jockey Tracy J. Hebert up at a 5/2 morning line, and in a six-furlong claiming event, the combination of top rating, consistent speed output, and an experienced rider makes her the clear top choice. The 7% win rate is modest on paper, but context matters: this horse has been running in competitive spots and the rating says the form is trending right.

place6Go WaterML 3/1

Go Water brings the second-highest rating in the race at 81.16 and sports a 3/1 morning line, with Miguel A. Perez riding for trainer Adam Archuleta. An 8% career win rate in claiming company isn't flashy, but a 55 average speed figure on this surface is consistent with a horse that can run near the front and hold on in a six-furlong test. If Max's Maxine gets any pace trouble early, Go Water has the profile to capitalize.

show7ChasenuinmydreamsML 7/2

Chasenuinmydreams rates third in the field at 68.99 — a notable step below the top two, but still well clear of the rest — with a 13% career win rate and a 54 average speed figure. Francisco Zamora rides for trainer Sherry Armstrong at 7/2, and the career win percentage is one of the better marks in this field. She's a natural trifecta anchor for players who want coverage beneath the top two.

Race 8

10:25 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 fur · Dirt

Bluegrass Faith stands out as a dominant top pick in this five-furlong claimer, but Don't Hit Me Bash has the career numbers to make this more than a one-horse race on the board.

win6Bluegrass FaithML 5/2

Bluegrass Faith tops the field with an 87.81 TrackWiz rating — the highest mark on the entire nine-race card today — and pairs that with a 34% career win rate that is frankly exceptional in claiming company. Trainer James E. Crotts puts Luis A. Valenzuela aboard at 5/2, and a horse who wins one in three starts over a career is not a horse you ask 'if' — you ask 'when.' The 54 average speed figure is competitive at five furlongs, and the rating edge combined with that win percentage makes her the most bankable top pick of the day.

place1Don't Hit Me BashML 3/1

Don't Hit Me Bash enters at a 71.26 TrackWiz rating with a 14% career win rate and an average speed figure of 56 — the best speed output among the top contenders in this race. Jockey Alejandro Medellin rides for trainer Andres Gonzalez at a 3/1 morning line, and the higher speed figure suggests this horse could put pressure on the pace early. In a five-furlong sprint, a horse who runs a 56 speed figure and has double-digit win percentage is a natural exacta partner.

show7Rainbow CrestML 6/1

Rainbow Crest rates third at 59.47 with a 9% career win rate and a 55 average speed figure — good enough to show up in the exotics even if she's unlikely to threaten the top two in a straight fight. Francisco Zamora rides for trainer Bernadette Barrios at 6/1 morning line, which makes her a value inclusion in trifecta tickets. If the top two have any sort of trouble, Rainbow Crest's solid speed figure gives her the juice to sneak into the frame.

Race 9

10:50 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

The nightcap is a six-furlong maiden claiming route with a closely packed top four in the ratings — the finish order could go several ways, making exacta and trifecta exotics particularly appealing here.

win4CharlizeangelbabyML 3/1

Charlizeangelbaby leads TrackWiz ratings at 78.77 with a 53 average speed figure, and jockey Gabriel Medrano — one of the busiest and most productive riders on today's card — takes the mount for trainer Martin Manuel Valdez-Cabral. The trainer also runs M G Showoff in this field, which is always worth noting; when a barn doubles up, they often have a preference, and Medrano's booking on Charlizeangelbaby over the stablemate is a clear signal. At 3/1 morning line, she's attractively priced for the top-rated horse in the race.

place3Hallie's GalML 5/2

Hallie's Gal rates second at 76.29 and shows the best average speed figure in this field at 54 — a meaningful edge in a maiden route where raw speed can be the deciding factor over six furlongs. Luis Ramon Rodriguez rides for trainer Joel H. Marr at 5/2 on the morning line, making her the co-favorite with a legitimate case to flip the top two. Her speed figure advantage could be decisive if the pace sets up favorably for a closer.

show1M G ShowoffML 9/2

M G Showoff rates third at 74.25 and represents Valdez-Cabral's second entry in this race, ridden by Alfredo J. Juarez, Jr. The 9/2 morning line is fair value for a horse with the third-best rating in the field and a trainer who clearly believes in both of his runners here. The 51 average speed figure is a touch below the top two, but in a maiden claiming finale where the field is inexperienced, hitting the board at a price is a reasonable expectation.

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Bottom line for Wednesday at Albuquerque: Someone Elses Kiss is the TrackWiz top-rated horse on the card and a must-watch in Race 1. Jolie Candy offers genuine value at her morning line number in Race 2, and Apollitical Duchess rounds out a strong free-play trio in Race 3. For Consecrated, Max's Maxine, Bluegrass Faith, and the full exotic strategy across all nine races, the complete analysis is waiting for subscribers. Good luck at the windows — ride smart.

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