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Albuquerque Picks & Predictions — July 19, 2026

July 19, 202610 racesAll Albuquerque picks

This card ran on July 19, 2026.

Best bets at Albuquerque, July 19, 2026

Race 12MightylilskyML 5/23:30 PM EDT

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Albuquerque is firing up a loaded 10-race Sunday card on July 19, and the weather is cooperating — partly cloudy skies and a comfortable 85°F should keep the dirt surface playing fast and true all afternoon. That's good news for speed horses and front-runners, and our TrackWiz analysis flagged several pace-pressing profiles that look primed to take advantage.

The card is a nice blend of Thoroughbred and Quarter Horse action. Races 1 through 6 carry the traditional distance formats you'd expect — maidens, allowances, and a seven-furlong claimer — before the card shifts gears in the backend with a pair of stakes races and a Futurity, all contested at Quarter Horse distances. If you're newer to Quarter Horse racing, those short-burst sprints (400 to 870 yards) are decided in a matter of seconds, and gate speed is everything.

Three races are free to all TrackWiz readers today, with seven more sitting behind the premium paywall. There's genuine value scattered across this card, and a couple of our top picks are sitting at morning-line prices that look awfully generous.

Best Bets

Race 1

3:30 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A wide-open maiden sprint where TrackWiz ratings separate two clear standouts from the rest of a largely inexperienced field — but first-time starters make this anyone's game.

win2MightylilskyML 5/2

Mightylilsky earns the top TrackWiz rating in this field at 87.81, a significant edge over the competition in a race full of unknowns. Trainer Joel H. Marr sends this one out at 5/2 on the morning line, suggesting connections have legitimate confidence. The average speed figure of 55 ties with a couple of rivals but the overall profile grades out best. In a maiden race where experience is limited across the board, the numbers here make Mightylilsky the most logical win choice.

place8DreamilyML 9/2

Dreamily isn't far behind with an 84.55 TrackWiz rating and matches Mightylilsky's average speed figure of 55. Trainer Sherry Armstrong puts Enrique Portillo Gomez aboard, a jockey who appears multiple times on today's card — a good sign he's live on the mount. At 9/2 on the morning line, there's solid value if the top pick stumbles.

show1Fauzeta's FlameML 4/1

Fauzeta's Flame slots in third in our ratings at 62.57 — a noticeable gap below the top two but well clear of the rest of the field. Trainer Larry Chavez and jockey Alejandro Medellin form a familiar barn-and-rider pairing, and the 4/1 morning line suggests the market respects this one. As a show bet or exotic inclusion, the gap between this horse and the mid-range runners makes the spot defensible.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

3:55 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

A dozen maiden claimers go 6½ furlongs on the dirt, and one horse grades out so far ahead of the pack that this shapes up as a singles race with a wide-open battle for the minor slots.

win8Gimme a WhoML 7/2

Gimme a Who carries an 86.35 TrackWiz rating — the highest in the field by more than 20 points — and comes in at a very fair 7/2 on the morning line. Jockey Gabriel Medrano pilots this one for trainer Oscar V. Carrete, and the average speed figure of 54 is right there with the best in the race. In a maiden claiming field this deep, a horse that grades this far above the competition demands top consideration.

place10Final TrialML 4/1

Final Trial is the second-best rated horse in the field at 65.0, with an average speed figure of 55 that actually edges the top pick. Trainer Casey T. Lambert puts Kelsi Purcell in the irons, and at 4/1 on the morning line there's legitimate value if this one runs its best. The profile suggests a horse capable of hitting the board even if Gimme a Who dominates.

show7BooneML 8/1

Boone checks in at a 52.42 rating — well below the top two but solid enough to carve out a minor share in this field. Francisco Amparan rides for trainer Martin Manuel Valdez-Cabral, and the 8/1 morning line makes Boone a worthwhile exotics play in trifecta wheels. Don't need much to run third here — just consistency.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 12 runners

Our three free best bets today span Races 1, 2, and 3 — the opening salvo of the Thoroughbred card. In Race 1, the Maiden Special Weight over 5½ furlongs, Mightylilsky lands at 5/2 on the morning line and carries a TrackWiz rating of 87.81, the highest of the free trio. Maiden Specials can be tricky to read, but that figure gives us a real edge to anchor around. In Race 2, Gimme a Who checks in at 7/2 in the Maiden Claiming — a logical class spot that our models suggest suits this horse's profile well. Then in Race 3, the six-furlong allowance throws up an interesting value angle: Made American opens at 6/1, yet posts a TrackWiz rating of 82.71. When a horse's figure disagrees with the morning line that significantly, that's exactly the kind of spot we look for. On a fast, sunny afternoon at Albuquerque, all three of these early races should set up for pace-pressing runners — keep an eye on which horses break cleanly from the gate.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

4:20 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

This allowance sprint over six furlongs features a cluster of closely matched horses at the top of the ratings, setting up a genuine pace battle where the winner could come from multiple directions.

win4Made AmericanML 6/1

Made American is our top-rated horse in this allowance field at 82.71 and carries a 16% career win rate — respectable for this company. The average speed figure of 56 leads all entrants, which is a meaningful edge in a six-furlong sprint where raw pace matters. Trainer Martin Manuel Valdez-Cabral sends this one out at a generous 6/1 morning line, which looks like potential overlay territory given the ratings. Enrique Portillo Gomez has been busy on this card and is clearly a top rider at this meet.

place5Private EquityML 5/2

Private Equity is just a tick below at 81.62 and comes in as the 5/2 morning line favorite — so the market and our numbers are largely in agreement. Trainer Todd W. Fincher has two horses in this race, which speaks to barn confidence, and Oscar Andrade Jr. gets the call here. The 10% career win rate is a mild concern, but the overall profile in a competitive allowance field still screams top-two finisher.

show3Ghosted AgainML 7/2

Ghosted Again rounds out our top three at 77.68, posting the same average speed figure as the top pick at 55. Alfredo J. Juarez Jr. rides for the other Fincher entry, and the 7/2 morning line puts this horse squarely on the radar. In an allowance race this tight at the top, including Ghosted Again in your exotics makes plenty of sense.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 4

4:45 PM EDT

Allowance · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

The allowance sprint at 5½ furlongs features a standout on paper in Albertus, but Fire Breather's eye-popping career win percentage makes this more than a single-horse race.

win3AlbertusML 7/2

Albertus tops the TrackWiz ratings at 86.35 and backs it up with the highest average speed figure in the field at 57. Trainer Alberto Amparan puts his own son Francisco Amparan in the irons — a family connection that often signals extra barn motivation. The 25% career win rate is solid, and at 7/2 on the morning line, this looks like fair value for the best horse in the race. Hard to make a case against the top-rated horse in a sprint.

place6Fire BreatherML 5/2

Fire Breather is the morning line favorite at 5/2 and sports a remarkable 50% career win rate — that's a horse that knows how to close out a race. The 75.50 TrackWiz rating is second in the field and the average speed figure of 56 matches several rivals. Aldo Arboleda picks up the mount for trainer Timothy Mark Gleason, and the pace scenario over 5½ furlongs should suit a horse that wins at this clip.

show1Drum BunnyML 3/1

Drum Bunny draws the rail for trainer Raymond G. Valerio and rates third in the field at 64.16 with a 56 speed figure that keeps pace with the leaders on paper. Luis Ramon Rodriguez aboard from the one-hole is a tricky spot, but the 3/1 morning line suggests the market views this one as a legitimate contender. As a show hedge or exotics piece, the rail position at a short sprint distance has its advantages.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 5

5:10 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

The allowance field at six furlongs features two horses with elite career win percentages and strong ratings — expect a top-heavy race with a clear favorite who has been dominant in the past.

win4First AgainML 3/1

First Again is the standout on every metric that matters: an 87.08 TrackWiz rating, a 27% career win rate, and an average speed figure of 56 that ties for the field lead. Trainer Danny Morales puts Miguel A. Perez aboard and the 3/1 morning line makes this a fair-priced top choice rather than a false favorite. In an allowance field with several one-dimensional speed types, First Again's consistent numbers suggest a horse that can adapt to the flow of the race.

place8Matilda's MarkML 5/2

Matilda's Mark comes in at 84.39 — close enough to the top pick to be dangerous — and that 50% career win rate is extraordinary. Trainer Todd W. Fincher's barn has been active all day and Alfredo J. Juarez Jr. gets the call at 5/2 on the morning line. The gap between this horse and the third-rated runner in the field is wide enough to suggest a 1-2 finish between First Again and Matilda's Mark is the most likely outcome.

show7Right for YouML 7/2

Right for You rates third at 69.42 with a 56 average speed figure that matches the top two. Trainer Gary W. Cross puts Alejandro Medellin aboard at 7/2 on the morning line — a price that could slip as post time approaches given the morning line layout. As the third-best horse in a race where the top two are well above the rest, this one fits naturally as a show pick or trifecta key.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 6

5:35 PM EDT

Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

A full and competitive claiming field at seven furlongs where three horses grade out almost identically at the top — this is a race where the pace scenario and trip luck could easily decide things.

win8Dora's StormML 5/1

Dora's Storm leads our ratings at 83.29 with a 16% career win rate and an average speed figure of 55. Trainer Robert James Gherardi sends Jose L. Torres to the gate at 5/1 on the morning line — a price that looks friendly given the ratings edge. Seven furlongs is a distance that rewards horses with some tactical flexibility, and the overall profile here suggests a horse capable of sitting off the pace and finishing strong.

place7TedML 6/1

Ted is just a whisker back at 82.71 for trainer Dick Cappellucci, who also has a runner earlier on the card — a barn clearly firing on all cylinders today. Alfredo J. Juarez Jr. gets the mount at 6/1, which looks like mild overlay territory for a horse this close to the top of the ratings. The 12% career win rate is honest for the claiming ranks, and in a field this deep, hitting the board is the baseline expectation.

show2Blazing to GoldML 7/2

Blazing to Gold checks in at 82.42 — essentially a three-way dead heat at the top of the ratings — with a 19% career win rate and the field's best average speed figure at 56. Trainer Jeffrey J. Trujillo puts James A. Flores aboard at 7/2 on the morning line, making this the most attractively priced of the top trio. The speed figure edge is real, and in a longer claiming sprint, a horse that can clear the field early carries extra value.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 12 runners

Race 7

6:00 PM EDT

Stakes · 870 yd · Dirt

The evening's first stakes race goes 870 yards on the dirt — a quarter-horse-style distance — and features a fascinating battle between a top-rated choice and a deep field full of horses with strong career win percentages.

win2Boot ScootsML 3/1

Boot Scoots leads our ratings convincingly at 84.15 and brings a 30% career win rate to a stakes field — that's a horse with real credentials. Trainer Tony E. Sedillo puts Oscar Andrade Jr. in the irons at 3/1 on the morning line, a combination that commands respect. At 870 yards, the race is decided in a matter of seconds, so clean gate speed and a consistent profile matter most — Boot Scoots delivers on both counts.

place4Beaux DashesML 10/1

Beaux Dashes is the value play of the race at 10/1 on the morning line despite posting a solid 76.88 TrackWiz rating. Trainer Sherry Armstrong's barn has been represented well on this card, and Enrique Portillo Gomez is clearly a go-to jockey at this meet. If the morning line holds anywhere near 10/1, this is a screaming place bet — the rating doesn't justify that kind of price.

show8Devons CartelML 9/2

Devons Cartel rates third at 72.18 with an impressive 26% career win rate in what appears to be a competitive body of work. Trainer Salvador R. Soto puts Gabriel Medrano aboard at 9/2 on the morning line, and in a race this short, post position and gate break matter enormously. Including Devons Cartel in trifecta and exacta tickets provides solid coverage of the third slot.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

Race 8

6:25 PM EDT

Stakes · 400 yd · Dirt

A 400-yard stakes dash comes down to two horses with elite career win percentages — the rest of the field is scrambling for scraps behind a pair of legitimate standouts.

win8Toppa the MoonML 7/2

Toppa the Moon sits atop our ratings at 86.35 and backs it up with an extraordinary 66% career win rate — this horse has shown it can close out races at the highest rate in this field. Oscar Andrade Jr. gets the call for trainer David M. Gomez-Barraza at 7/2 on the morning line, a price that looks workable for the top choice. At 400 yards, the margin for error is essentially zero, which is exactly where a horse with a 66% win rate thrives.

place4Big TedML 3/1

Big Ted is the morning line second choice at 3/1 with a jaw-dropping 60% career win rate — this horse wins more often than not, full stop. Trainer Omar Vargas and jockey Sergio Becerra Jr. form the pairing, and the 79.72 TrackWiz rating is well clear of everything below these two. In a two-horse race at the top, Big Ted is the natural place play if Toppa the Moon is your win bet.

show10Tempered DaddyML 9/2

Tempered Daddy comes in at 65.26 on our ratings — a notable step below the top two but a meaningful gap above the rest of the field. Trainer John A. Stinebaugh puts Gabriel Medrano aboard at 9/2 on the morning line, which is fair pricing given the position in the ratings. As a show bet or trifecta anchor, Tempered Daddy looks like the safest third-place option in the field.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

Race 9

6:50 PM EDT

Futurity · 400 yd · Dirt

The futurity at 400 yards features juveniles, and two horses grade out almost identically at the top — but the morning line tells a very different story about public perception versus TrackWiz numbers.

win3Sand and SeaML 7/2

Sand and Sea earns the top TrackWiz rating at 86.35 for trainer Rodolfo G. Valles, who also has another runner in this field — clearly a barn that knows what it takes to win a futurity. Joseph Belloc Jr. gets the mount at 7/2 on the morning line, and a 33% career win rate for a young horse is solid. The slight ratings edge over the morning line favorite makes this horse the analytical top choice.

place4Baby Daddy CartelML 9/5

Baby Daddy Cartel comes into this race as the 9/5 morning line favorite and it's easy to see why — an 80% career win rate is borderline elite and the 85.56 TrackWiz rating is just a fraction below Sand and Sea. Trainer Omar Vargas puts Noe Garcia Jr. aboard, and this barn also has multiple entries today. The market has this horse right, even if our ratings lean slightly to the other side — both finish in the top two in most scenarios.

show2ShaferML 6/1

Shafer is the third-rated horse at 69.62 with a 66% career win rate — a number that screams consistency for a young horse. Christian Cardenas rides for trainer Rodolfo G. Valles, the same barn as the top pick, which gives this stable a powerful one-two punch. At 6/1 on the morning line, Shafer offers genuine value as a show selection and is worth including in all exotic combinations.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

Race 10

7:15 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 fur · Dirt

The nightcap is a five-furlong claiming sprint with a clear TrackWiz favorite, but a cluster of horses rated between 70 and 81 makes the exacta and trifecta spots genuinely contested.

win5Marked CashML 3/1

Marked Cash leads the field with an 87.08 TrackWiz rating and the highest average speed figure in the race at 56 — in a short five-furlong sprint, raw speed is king, and this horse has it. Trainer Dick Cappellucci fields a second runner on the card as well, suggesting a live barn on this night. Alfredo J. Juarez Jr. takes the mount at 3/1 on the morning line, and the 18% career win rate is respectable for the claiming ranks. The numbers make this the most straightforward top pick of the back half of the card.

place11Cause Mimi SaidML 9/2

Cause Mimi Said rates second in the field at 81.21 with a 12% career win rate, and Francisco Amparan — one of the busiest jockeys on today's card — picks up the mount for trainer Martin Manuel Valdez-Cabral. The 9/2 morning line looks a touch generous for a horse this close to the top of the ratings. As a place bet, the profile is compelling: solid speed figure of 54 and a ratings score that clears most of this field.

show2Hennessy Looker RfML 4/1

Hennessy Looker Rf rates third at 78.62 for trainer Tony P. Lello with Oscar Andrade Jr. aboard at 4/1 on the morning line. The average speed figure of 55 is right in the mix, and the 7% career win rate is low — but in claiming company, hitting the board consistently matters as much as winning. Including this horse on the show end of trifecta tickets gives solid coverage of the minor share.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 11 runners

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Bottom line: Albuquerque has a sharp 10-race card on tap, the dirt should be flying fast under sunny New Mexico skies, and our top free plays — Mightylilsky, Gimme a Who, and Made American — give everyone a strong starting point. For pace scenarios, exotic ticket builds, and full analysis on all seven premium races including the Quarter Horse stakes trio, grab a TrackWiz subscription at /pricing. Good luck out there — and as always, bet within your means.

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