Daily Picks

Albuquerque Picks & Predictions — July 11, 2026

Saturday, July 11, 202610 racesAlbuquerque

It's a scorcher at Albuquerque today — 95 degrees under partly cloudy skies, and that New Mexico heat is going to test horses and connections alike from the first gate break to the final wire. Ten races are on the card, all on a fast dirt strip, and the quick-burst quarter-horse distances that dominate this meet mean every tenth of a second counts.

The headliners today are a pair of Derby events in Races 7 and 9 — premium short-track action that draws some of the sharpest runners in the region. But don't sleep on the earlier half of the card either: we've got maiden sprints, a stakes at 440 yards, and a rare longer test at 870 yards in Race 5 that should produce a very different pace scenario than the rest of the afternoon.

Three races are open to all TrackWiz readers, with our top picks clearly labeled. The remaining seven are part of the full premium breakdown — and on a Derby day like this, that's where the real edge lives.

Best Bets

Race 1

12:05 AM EDT

Maiden · 400 yd · Dirt

A wide-open maiden sprint at 400 yards where the morning line spreads from 3/1 to 30/1 — TrackWiz ratings separate a tight cluster at the top from a long tail of longshots.

win1Fearless CowboyML 3/1

Fearless Cowboy draws the rail in post 1 and tops our ratings at 56.67, a clear edge over this maiden field. Trainer S. Trey Wood sends him out as the 3/1 morning line favorite, suggesting connections have confidence heading into the gates. In a maiden sprint where first-jump ability is everything, getting the favorable inside post with the top rating is a strong combination.

place2Revenant JessML 7/2

Revenant Jess comes in at 7/2 on the morning line with a rating of 55.83 — barely a tick behind Fearless Cowboy at the top of the board. Trainer Rodolfo G. Valles and jockey Christian Cardenas form a familiar local partnership, and the razor-thin rating gap suggests this one has the raw tools to be competitive all the way to the wire.

show11Lonestar JessML 15/1

Lonestar Jess is the sneaky inclusion here at 15/1 on the morning line, yet carries a TrackWiz rating of 54.58 that's nearly identical to our place pick. Trainer Jason L. Olmstead puts Ramiro Haro Garcia aboard, and the value angle is real — if either of the top two stumble out of the gate, Lonestar Jess has the profile to collect a check at a much more generous price.

Race 2

12:30 AM EDT

Claiming · 300 yd · Dirt

A 300-yard claiming dash with a clear class standout at the top — but Royal D's 20% career win rate gives the second choice real teeth in an ultra-short sprint where anything can happen.

win1Master of the CraftML 9/2

Master of the Craft is the dominant figure in this field with a TrackWiz rating of 84.9 — a full ten points clear of Royal D in second. Trainer David M. Gomez-Barraza has him working with Luis Martinez in the irons, and that 10% career win percentage actually understates his form at this level given the quality of competition he's faced. At 9/2 on the morning line, there's legitimate value on the top-rated horse here.

place3Royal DML 6/1

Royal D is the main rival with a rating of 74.8 and a 20% career win rate — the best win percentage in the field by a clear margin. Trainer Juvencio Canales sends him out at 6/1 with Raul Ortega up, and in a 300-yard race where the finish line comes up fast, a horse who wins one in five tries could easily steal the show if Master of the Craft gets any trouble breaking.

show7High Kicking EagleML 3/1

High Kicking Eagle is the 3/1 morning line second choice despite sitting third in our ratings at 65.19. Trainer Bernadette Barrios has this one priced aggressively, and jockey Flavio Lozano is a capable hand at this track. The rating gap between High Kicking Eagle and the top two is notable, but in a 300-yard sprint the race can be decided in a blink — board presence makes this a solid exotic anchor.

Race 3

12:55 AM EDT

Maiden · 400 yd · Dirt

This 400-yard maiden is anything but wide open — A Twisted Cowgirl sits atop the TrackWiz ratings with an 86.35 and looks like a standout in a field where the back half has very little to offer.

win6A Twisted CowgirlML 7/2

A Twisted Cowgirl is the clear top figure in this maiden field with a rating of 86.35 — more than 13 points ahead of the second-best horse. Trainer Tammy Kay Johnson and jockey Oscar Andrade, Jr. team up at a confident 7/2 morning line, and that price may be generous given the rating dominance on display. In a 400-yard dash, a horse with this kind of edge over the field rarely gets beaten without a bad break.

place3Dear AbbyML 9/2

Dear Abby comes in second in our ratings at 72.6 under trainer Dean R. Frey and jockey Jesus Rios Ayala at 9/2 on the morning line. She sits well clear of the rest of the pack — the next horse behind her, Candy Baby, checks in at 65.51 — which means if A Twisted Cowgirl stumbles out of the gate, Dear Abby has the profile to inherit the lead and hold on in this short sprint.

show4Candy BabyML 9/5

Candy Baby opens at 9/5 as the morning line favorite — tighter than our top-rated horse — yet checks in third in our ratings at 65.51. Trainer Michael G. Valenzuela and jockey Esgar Ramirez are a respected local combo, and the public money on this one is real. Whether she's overbet or genuinely sharp, sticking her underneath in exotics makes sense given the trainer-jockey firepower behind her.

Our three free best bet races — Races 1, 2, and 3 — cover the opening maiden and claiming action of the afternoon. Fearless Cowboy headlines Race 1 at 3/1 morning line, a solid spot for a first-time or lightly raced runner in a maiden sprint. In Race 2, Master of the Craft earns our top rating among the free picks at 84.9 and goes at 9/2, giving this field a clear class angle worth watching. Race 3 features A Twisted Cowgirl with an 86.35 TrackWiz rating — the highest of the free-race picks — and she's a very playable 7/2 on the morning line.

With the track likely playing fast and true in this heat, early speed off the gate should be rewarded all card long. All three of our free picks profile well in that context — horses that can break clean and hold their lanes in short-format dirt racing tend to thrive in conditions like today's.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

1:20 AM EDT

Allowance · 400 yd · Dirt

The allowance field at 400 yards is topped by a pair of horses with 25%+ career win rates — Maka Roon and Hs Shotgun — setting up a potential duel between two seasoned competitors while the favorite on paper may be underrated at morning line.

win4Maka RoonML 5/2

Maka Roon checks in with the top rating in the field at 77.92 and brings a career win rate of 26% — the best in the field. Trainer Mario Dominguez-Garcia and jockey Sergio Becerra, Jr. combine at a reasonable 5/2 morning line, and that win percentage suggests this horse knows how to finish the job when the gate opens. At 400 yards, the combination of our top rating and the field's best win percentage is a compelling two-pronged argument.

place5Hs ShotgunML 10/1

Hs Shotgun at 10/1 is the standout value angle in this race, carrying a rating of 76.88 — separated from Maka Roon by less than a point — yet priced as a double-digit longshot. A 25% career win rate backs up the rating, and trainer Angel E. Dominguez sends Edgar S. Martinez out on a horse that looks significantly undervalued on the morning line. This is exactly the type of overlay that pays off in exactas and quinellas.

show1Bf Mucha DivineML 7/2

Bf Mucha Divine rounds out our top three with a rating of 66.12 and a strong 20% career win rate. Gabriel Medrano takes the mount for trainer Wesley T. Giles at 7/2, and while she slots in clearly behind the top two on ratings, that win rate shows she's found the winner's circle before and knows what to do in the stretch. A solid piece for vertical tickets at a fair price.

Race 5

1:45 AM EDT

Allowance · 870 yd · Dirt

The 870-yard allowance is the longest race on the card — and that extra ground reshapes the pace picture entirely, rewarding horses that can rate and finish while the sprinters run out of gas.

win5Fireside ChatML 6/5

Fireside Chat is our top-rated horse at 68.37 and opens as the 6/5 morning line favorite, a clear signal that the connections and the market align on this one. A 22% career win rate adds reliability to the profile, and trainer Marco A. Flores sends Jose Luis Enriquez aboard for the longer 870-yard test. At six furlongs equivalent for quarter horses, the ability to sustain speed becomes critical — and Fireside Chat's rating edge suggests she has the engine to do exactly that.

place9DrinkroundthetruthML 20/1

Drinkroundthetruth is the most intriguing horse on the board at 20/1 morning line — but don't sleep on a rating of 62.29 that's almost identical to Rock Ya Later's 62.03. What separates this one is an average speed figure of 57, the only horse in the field with a recorded speed figure, suggesting actual timed works or race times to back up the rating. At a price of 20/1, this is a genuine value play in the place and exacta spots.

show3Rock Ya LaterML 3/1

Rock Ya Later draws the 3 post for trainer Tammy Kay Johnson and jockey Oscar Andrade, Jr. at a fair 3/1 morning line, carrying a rating of 62.03 and a 17% career win rate. That win percentage is respectable in an allowance field, and the Johnson-Andrade combo has already shown up in our Race 3 pick — a trainer who fires multiple horses on a card is worth following. A solid show anchor in the longer route scenario.

Race 6

2:10 AM EDT

Stakes · 440 yd · Dirt

Stakes day brings out the best — and tightest — form in the 440-yard feature, with three horses rated within a point of each other at the top and a win-percentage monster lurking at 7/2.

win2Ajs WingmanML 9/2

Ajs Wingman tops our ratings at 83.21 and brings a 25% career win rate to a stakes field that demands proven class. Trainer Jason L. Olmstead — who already has horses live across the card — sends Ramiro Haro Garcia aboard at 9/2 on the morning line. The separation between Ajs Wingman and the next tier of this field is meaningful, and in a stakes sprint, the horse that hits the ground running from the gate typically controls the outcome.

place5Mm RampageML 6/1

Mm Rampage checks in at 82.71 — just half a point off our win pick — with a 22% career win rate and the 6/1 morning line. Trainer S. Trey Wood has Ricky Ramirez up on a horse that looks like it belongs right at the top of this field on ratings alone. The slight markdown in odds relative to his form makes this a sneaky value spot in exactas.

show8TraxionML 7/2

Traxion is the most eye-catching horse in the field from a career win rate standpoint — 57% is an elite figure in any race at any level, and trainer Jorge A. Morales-Flores has Jesse Lee Levario up at 7/2 morning line. A rating of 82.15 keeps Traxion in the conversation with the top two, and a horse that wins more than half its starts doesn't fall into the show spot by accident — it gets there because the field is genuinely deep today.

Race 7

2:35 AM EDT

Derby · 440 yd · Dirt

The first Derby on the card is dominated by a pair of horses with elite career win rates — Gf Shes Sinful at 71% and Beuteeful at 80% — making this a star-studded sprint where the bottom of the field is mostly just filling out the gate.

win6Gf Shes SinfulML 9/5

Gf Shes Sinful is the TrackWiz top pick with a rating of 88.83 — easily the highest figure in this Derby — and a career win rate of 71% that speaks for itself. Trainer Wesley T. Giles sends Noe Garcia, Jr. aboard at 9/5 on the morning line, and while that's not a fat price, the combination of elite rating and dominant win percentage makes this horse the clear anchor of the race. In 440-yard sprints, horses like this that know how to win tend to find a way.

place5Toby SisML 7/5

Toby Sis opens as the tighter morning line favorite at 7/5 — shorter than our top pick — yet slots in second on our ratings at 75.85. The jaw-dropping 77% career win rate is one of the best figures on the entire card. Trainer Raymond G. Valerio has Francisco Calderon up, and while we rate Gf Shes Sinful above her, the market clearly has Toby Sis at the top. Either way, getting the place on a horse that wins 77% of its starts at any price is defensible.

show8BeuteefulML 6/1

Beuteeful opens at 6/1 but carries a staggering 80% career win rate — the highest on the card by a country mile. Trainer Joel J. Gonzales and jockey Rodrigo Sigala Vallejo have a horse that on raw win percentage alone looks like it should be odds-on. The rating of 69.14 is the limiting factor here and explains the longer price, but in a three-horse exotic that includes the top two, backing an 80% winner in the show slot at 6/1 is excellent value.

Race 8

3:00 AM EDT

Allowance · 400 yd · Dirt

A quirky allowance where career win percentages are all over the map — including a pair of horses at 100% — but raw ratings tell a more grounded story with Artic Cowboy 123 sitting well clear at the top.

win7Artic Cowboy 123ML 9/2

Artic Cowboy 123 leads this field with a rating of 84.9 — a commanding figure in an allowance field — and trainer Jason L. Olmstead, who is having a big day at this meet, sends Ramiro Haro Garcia aboard at 9/2 on the morning line. The 33% career win rate is solid, and the Olmstead-Haro Garcia combination has already been flagged in earlier races today, meaning this trainer is clearly pointing horses ready to run. The rating gap between Artic Cowboy 123 and the rest of this field is wide enough to inspire confidence.

place9Metal Potion TML 8/1

Metal Potion T comes in at 8/1 morning line with a rating of 62.74 and a 25% career win rate for trainer Armando Alamos. Jockey Francisco Zamora takes over on a horse that has found the winner's circle a quarter of the time — respectable in allowance company. The price feels more generous than the form warrants, making this a legitimate value play in the place hole and an attractive piece in exacta combinations.

show4Mr Mallard HocksML 3/1

Mr Mallard Hocks draws the 4 post and opens at 3/1 with a rating of 56.67 and a 100% career win rate — meaning every time this horse has entered the winner's circle. Trainer Marc E. Jungers and jockey Edwin G. Escobedo handle a horse that clearly knows how to finish, though the limited sample behind that perfect record warrants some caution. At 3/1, the market respects it, and as a show ticket it anchors the low end of exotics nicely.

Race 9

3:25 AM EDT

Derby · 440 yd · Dirt

The second Derby of the evening features an exceptionally deep form profile across the board — four horses with win rates of 50% or better — making this the most competitive race on the card from top to bottom.

win4Point Blank RangeML 9/2

Point Blank Range shares the top rating in this field at 84.9 and brings a 66% career win rate — one of the strongest profiles in today's card. Trainer Dee Keener sends Roman Cruz out on a horse that, by the numbers, wins two out of every three starts it enters. At 9/2 on the morning line, the market is clearly aware of the talent here, and our rating locks this one in as the top selection in a deeply competitive Derby.

place1Jarvis VML 7/2

Jarvis V opens at 7/2 with a rating of 78.73 and an 18% career win rate for trainer Raymond G. Valerio, who also runs Hitman V in this race. Francisco Calderon gets the mount on the better of the two Valerio horses, and that jockey assignment is a tell in itself — trainers rarely waste their best rider on the secondary option. The rating supports a competitive effort against the favorite.

show6Famous N RelentlessML 6/1

Famous N Relentless is an intriguing show piece at 6/1 with a rating of 74.12 and a 50% career win rate that commands respect in any field. Trainer Jason L. Olmstead — riding a wave of live horses all day — puts Ramiro Haro Garcia up once again, a pairing that has appeared multiple times on this card. A horse that wins half its starts doesn't often hit the board at 6/1, which is why this one belongs in your exactas, trifectas, and superfectas at a very reasonable price.

Race 10

3:50 AM EDT

Maiden · 400 yd · Dirt

The card closes with a full maiden field where two horses — One Painted Sign and Political Spin — tower above the competition on ratings, setting up a potential two-horse battle in an otherwise thin affair.

win2One Painted SignML 7/2

One Painted Sign carries the top TrackWiz rating in this maiden field at 86.35 and opens at 7/2 for trainer John A. Stinebaugh with Gilberto Linares in the irons. Stinebaugh has been active throughout this card, and getting Linares — a jockey deployed thoughtfully across the day's races — on the top-rated horse is a strong trainer signal. In a maiden sprint where early speed and gate efficiency dominate, One Painted Sign's top figure gives it a clear edge.

place8Political SpinML 9/5

Political Spin opens as the 9/5 morning line favorite — shorter than our win pick — yet checks in at 85.44 on our ratings, just shy of One Painted Sign. Trainer Jason L. Olmstead, arguably the busiest and most active conditioner on today's card, sends Jhaciel Soto aboard a horse the public clearly trusts. The rating is nearly identical to our top pick, and in truth this could easily come in reverse — both deserve to be in your exacta box.

show7Gotta Candy HabitML 6/1

Gotta Candy Habit is the clear third option at 6/1 with a rating of 61.48, sitting noticeably below the top two but well clear of the rest of the field. Trainer Joel J. Gonzales and jockey Raul Ortega have a maiden that projects as the logical outside threat if the two favorites wage war and tire each other out. At 6/1, this is the kind of show play that keeps the trifecta tickets alive without breaking the bank.

Premium Content

Get the Full Card Analysis

Unlock expert picks for every race, detailed speed figures, trainer angles, and our SmartBet recommendations.

View Plans Sign In

Bottom line: this is a card with genuine stakes-level intrigue, two Derby races, and enough wide-open spots in the maiden and allowance ranks to make for a profitable afternoon if you find the right angles early. Fearless Cowboy, Master of the Craft, and A Twisted Cowgirl lead the free-card best bets — and Gf Shes Sinful is the name to know as the day's marquee contender. For the full race-by-race breakdown, pace projections, and exotic ticket strategy, unlock the premium analysis through your TrackWiz subscription at /pricing. Good luck out there — it's a good card.

← Back to all picks

Best Bets

Race 1↗

Race 2↗

Race 3↗

Full Card Analysis

Get the Full Card Analysis

Race 1

Race 2

Race 3