Albuquerque Picks & Predictions — July 11, 2026

Dear Abby comes in second in our ratings at 72.6 under trainer Dean R. Frey and jockey Jesus Rios Ayala at 9/2 on the morning line. She sits well clear of the rest of the pack — the next horse behind her, Candy Baby, checks in at 65.51 — which means if A Twisted Cowgirl stumbles out of the gate, Dear Abby has the profile to inherit the lead and hold on in this short sprint.

Candy Baby opens at 9/5 as the morning line favorite — tighter than our top-rated horse — yet checks in third in our ratings at 65.51. Trainer Michael G. Valenzuela and jockey Esgar Ramirez are a respected local combo, and the public money on this one is real. Whether she's overbet or genuinely sharp, sticking her underneath in exotics makes sense given the trainer-jockey firepower behind her.

Hs Shotgun at 10/1 is the standout value angle in this race, carrying a rating of 76.88 — separated from Maka Roon by less than a point — yet priced as a double-digit longshot. A 25% career win rate backs up the rating, and trainer Angel E. Dominguez sends Edgar S. Martinez out on a horse that looks significantly undervalued on the morning line. This is exactly the type of overlay that pays off in exactas and quinellas.

Bf Mucha Divine rounds out our top three with a rating of 66.12 and a strong 20% career win rate. Gabriel Medrano takes the mount for trainer Wesley T. Giles at 7/2, and while she slots in clearly behind the top two on ratings, that win rate shows she's found the winner's circle before and knows what to do in the stretch. A solid piece for vertical tickets at a fair price.

Drinkroundthetruth is the most intriguing horse on the board at 20/1 morning line — but don't sleep on a rating of 62.29 that's almost identical to Rock Ya Later's 62.03. What separates this one is an average speed figure of 57, the only horse in the field with a recorded speed figure, suggesting actual timed works or race times to back up the rating. At a price of 20/1, this is a genuine value play in the place and exacta spots.

Rock Ya Later draws the 3 post for trainer Tammy Kay Johnson and jockey Oscar Andrade, Jr. at a fair 3/1 morning line, carrying a rating of 62.03 and a 17% career win rate. That win percentage is respectable in an allowance field, and the Johnson-Andrade combo has already shown up in our Race 3 pick — a trainer who fires multiple horses on a card is worth following. A solid show anchor in the longer route scenario.

Mm Rampage checks in at 82.71 — just half a point off our win pick — with a 22% career win rate and the 6/1 morning line. Trainer S. Trey Wood has Ricky Ramirez up on a horse that looks like it belongs right at the top of this field on ratings alone. The slight markdown in odds relative to his form makes this a sneaky value spot in exactas.

Traxion is the most eye-catching horse in the field from a career win rate standpoint — 57% is an elite figure in any race at any level, and trainer Jorge A. Morales-Flores has Jesse Lee Levario up at 7/2 morning line. A rating of 82.15 keeps Traxion in the conversation with the top two, and a horse that wins more than half its starts doesn't fall into the show spot by accident — it gets there because the field is genuinely deep today.

Toby Sis opens as the tighter morning line favorite at 7/5 — shorter than our top pick — yet slots in second on our ratings at 75.85. The jaw-dropping 77% career win rate is one of the best figures on the entire card. Trainer Raymond G. Valerio has Francisco Calderon up, and while we rate Gf Shes Sinful above her, the market clearly has Toby Sis at the top. Either way, getting the place on a horse that wins 77% of its starts at any price is defensible.

Beuteeful opens at 6/1 but carries a staggering 80% career win rate — the highest on the card by a country mile. Trainer Joel J. Gonzales and jockey Rodrigo Sigala Vallejo have a horse that on raw win percentage alone looks like it should be odds-on. The rating of 69.14 is the limiting factor here and explains the longer price, but in a three-horse exotic that includes the top two, backing an 80% winner in the show slot at 6/1 is excellent value.

Metal Potion T comes in at 8/1 morning line with a rating of 62.74 and a 25% career win rate for trainer Armando Alamos. Jockey Francisco Zamora takes over on a horse that has found the winner's circle a quarter of the time — respectable in allowance company. The price feels more generous than the form warrants, making this a legitimate value play in the place hole and an attractive piece in exacta combinations.

Mr Mallard Hocks draws the 4 post and opens at 3/1 with a rating of 56.67 and a 100% career win rate — meaning every time this horse has entered the winner's circle. Trainer Marc E. Jungers and jockey Edwin G. Escobedo handle a horse that clearly knows how to finish, though the limited sample behind that perfect record warrants some caution. At 3/1, the market respects it, and as a show ticket it anchors the low end of exotics nicely.

Jarvis V opens at 7/2 with a rating of 78.73 and an 18% career win rate for trainer Raymond G. Valerio, who also runs Hitman V in this race. Francisco Calderon gets the mount on the better of the two Valerio horses, and that jockey assignment is a tell in itself — trainers rarely waste their best rider on the secondary option. The rating supports a competitive effort against the favorite.

Famous N Relentless is an intriguing show piece at 6/1 with a rating of 74.12 and a 50% career win rate that commands respect in any field. Trainer Jason L. Olmstead — riding a wave of live horses all day — puts Ramiro Haro Garcia up once again, a pairing that has appeared multiple times on this card. A horse that wins half its starts doesn't often hit the board at 6/1, which is why this one belongs in your exactas, trifectas, and superfectas at a very reasonable price.

Political Spin opens as the 9/5 morning line favorite — shorter than our win pick — yet checks in at 85.44 on our ratings, just shy of One Painted Sign. Trainer Jason L. Olmstead, arguably the busiest and most active conditioner on today's card, sends Jhaciel Soto aboard a horse the public clearly trusts. The rating is nearly identical to our top pick, and in truth this could easily come in reverse — both deserve to be in your exacta box.

Gotta Candy Habit is the clear third option at 6/1 with a rating of 61.48, sitting noticeably below the top two but well clear of the rest of the field. Trainer Joel J. Gonzales and jockey Raul Ortega have a maiden that projects as the logical outside threat if the two favorites wage war and tire each other out. At 6/1, this is the kind of show play that keeps the trifecta tickets alive without breaking the bank.