Zia Park Picks & Predictions — November 10, 2026

Unrivaled Hero rates second at 75.93 and has placed in three consecutive races coming in — that's the kind of live form that holds up in allowance company. The dirt record of 2 wins in 4 races shows the surface fits, and jockey Valenzuela has been in the money 50% of the time over the past year. At a 3/1 morning line, there's fair value here for a horse trending in the right direction.

Misinformation goes postward as the 2/1 morning-line favorite, which at first glance looks like underlaying a horse that rates third on our model at 75.08. However, the recent speed figure of 12.53 sec/furlong ranks third in the field, and jockey Ramon Vazquez has a 21% win rate and 53% in-the-money rate over the past year. Our sims gave Misinformation a 23% win share — just behind Promissione — making this a horse to include in all your exotic tickets even as the show selection.

Leading You On draws the second-best sim win percentage at 18% and brings the second-fastest recent race speed figure at 13.17 sec/furlong in a field where the recent times are closely grouped. Trainer Ryan Kenney rates an A grade, which stands out in a maiden claimer where connections matter. With a 50% in-the-money rate and a decent recent speed number, Leading You On at 6/1 on the morning line is a compelling value play for the exacta.

Copper Vixen is 0-for-career like everyone else here, but the TrackWiz angles show at least one placement in sprint races and one on the dirt surface — modest credentials that at least indicate some familiarity with today's conditions. Trainer Stacey Rushton gets a B grade and the horse draws a neutral post in the four hole. At 8/1, Copper Vixen offers a bit of longshot insurance in the exotics for a race where the bottom of the form is very thin.

Sunset Sizzle rates second overall at 80.78 and shows a 50% career win rate with 75% in-the-money, backed by 2 wins in 4 dirt starts — this is a horse with a small but very productive sample. Three consecutive in-the-money finishes coming in point to live current form. Trainer Todd Fincher earns an A grade, and while jockey Valenzuela's 18% win rate is on the lower end of the top riders in this field, the horse's own numbers are hard to argue with.

Lucky Vegas is the sentimental selection here with 13 wins in 30 dirt starts — a 43% win rate that makes most of the field look ordinary by comparison. The horse has placed in five consecutive races, and the recent speed figure of 11.71 sec/furlong ranks third in this field. The age flag (6 years old) and a mediocre recent workout rank are legitimate concerns, but the in-form profile and high in-the-money rate (63%) make Lucky Vegas a logical piece in trifecta tickets at 5/1.

Cash Waterfall comes in with a perfect 3-for-3 record at Zia Park — 1 win and 2 additional placements at this exact track — and has also placed in 2 of 3 starts at six furlongs. That track-and-distance familiarity is a real edge. The concern is a three-race losing streak in the most recent form cycle, so the horse needs to find its best again, but the Zia affinity and 60% career in-the-money rate make it a strong consideration for the place ticket at 5/2.

American Century at 4/1 offers some intrigue despite a 0-for-3 recent run and a thin dirt record (1 placement in 4 starts). What makes it playable at this price: the recent speed figure of 12.48 sec/furlong ranks third in the field, and jockey Elvin Gonzalez has been in the money 64% of the time over the past year. At 25% career win rate, there's a winner buried in here — the question is whether this is the right spot for the form cycle to turn.

Twenty One Skidoo rates second on the TrackWiz model at 77.42 and owns a 66% in-the-money rate over its career — among the most reliable profiles in the field. The dirt record is excellent: 3 wins and placed in 8 of 10 starts, and the Juarez-Cappellucci connection has clicked at 31% wins and 66% in-the-money over the past year. At 5/1 on the morning line, there's genuine place value here for a horse whose consistency should keep it near the front of the board.

Fire Breather is the morning line favorite at 2/1 and it's not hard to see why: 4 wins and placed in 9 of 10 dirt starts, 5 of the last 6 in the money, and the fastest recent race speed in the field at 11.47 sec/furlong. The concern is that the jockey, Aldo Arboleda, grades out at C+ — a step down from the top connections in this race — which may be why our model has this as a show selection rather than a win pick. But with a 90% in-the-money rate, Fire Breather is virtually a mandatory inclusion in any exotic ticket.

Midnight Boss sits second on the TrackWiz model at 84.17 and comes in with solid recent form: placed in 4 of the last 6 races and owns a record of 3 wins and 8 placements in 15 dirt starts. Jockey Elvin Gonzalez has been in the money 64% of the time over the past year — a strong number at this level. The 5/1 morning line looks like genuine value for a horse that rates this high and has shown consistent form.

Fleetridge lands in our show spot at 5/2 on the morning line with the second-fastest recent speed figure in the field at 11.95 sec/furlong and a career dirt record of 7 wins in 32 starts with 20 in-the-money finishes. The in-form profile is real: placed in 2 of the last 3 races. Two concerns balance that out — an eight-year-old horse is typically past its peak, and the claiming price jump from $6,250 to $10,000 is a significant step up in company. Worthwhile as a trifecta piece at current odds.

Smokeintheair rates second on our model at 82.41 and owns the best recent form streak of any horse in this race: five consecutive in-the-money finishes coming in. The dirt record of 2 wins and 6 placements in 11 starts is solid, and trainer M.L. Pierce earns an A grade. At 3/1 on the morning line, Smokeintheair is fairly priced for the place slot, and the five-race positive streak is exactly the kind of momentum you want to bet against at your own peril.

Never Catch Me has placed in four of the last six races and three in a row coming in — that's legitimate current form in a field where several horses are coming off layoffs or struggling streaks. The 28% career win rate is the second-highest in this field, and the 57% in-the-money rate backs it up. The claiming price increase from $15,000 to $25,000 is the concern here — that's a significant class question — but the in-form profile makes this a reasonable show and trifecta play at 6/1.

Thatsaterriblidea rates second on the TrackWiz model at 85.62 with an impressive in-the-money rate of 75% — placing in 12 of 16 dirt starts over its career. The Juarez-Cappellucci connection has combined for a 31% win rate and 66% in-the-money figure over the past year, making this one of the more reliable pairings on the card. At 4/1 morning line, the place ticket on a horse with this consistency and a top-five connection is straightforward value.

Sirrah is an interesting show pick at 5/1 — a horse with zero career wins but a 62% in-the-money rate over its career, including a perfect 2-for-2 at Zia Park specifically. That track familiarity angle is worth something in an allowance field. Jockey Luis Fuentes has posted a 26% win rate and 62% in-the-money figure over the past year, and trainer Simon Buechler grades out at B. The concern is a recent speed figure that ranks eighth in the field — not the type of number that screams contender — but the Zia record and connections justify keeping Sirrah in your trifecta tickets.