Zia Park Picks & Predictions — November 8, 2026

D Queen is second in the ratings at 55.83 and is coming off an even longer layoff of 240 days, which in quarter horse racing can mean either a refreshed horse or a rusty one. With only 1 recent start to judge and no placing in that effort, the form is thin. Still, the rating separation between the top three horses is narrow enough that D Queen fits cleanly as a place contender in a wide-open maiden field.

Misleaving You rounds out the top three in the ratings at 54.17 and offers the best workout angle in the field — clocking the fastest drill over the last month at 12.02 sec/furlong. That's a subtle but real positive heading into a sprint where preparation matters. The last start resulted in a non-placing, which is a concern, but the work tab suggests the connections have this horse pointed correctly for today.

Its Jess Me is separated from the top pick by less than a tenth of a rating point at 85.62, and in a photo-finish caliber ratings race like this, that's essentially a coin flip on paper. The key supporting stats: a career win percentage of 21%, a 50% in-the-money rate, and 3 wins from 14 dirt starts. Jockey Luis A. Valenzuela — graded 'A' — has posted an 18% win rate and a 51% in-the-money rate over the past year. The fastest recent speed figure in the field at 11.55 sec/furlong is an additional feather in the cap for the place slot.

Flasin Courage rates third in the field at 63.55 but brings a genuinely strong distance profile: 3 wins and 4 placings in 6 starts at 870 yards. That's the kind of specific-distance form that matters at the quarter horse level. The workout tab is clean — topping last month's drills at 12.11 sec/furlong — and the jockey-horse combo has a 12% win rate and a 45% in-the-money clip. At 6/1 on the morning line, the show price gives you a reason to include this one in your horizontals.

Black and Sassie draws the second spot in our ratings at 70.24 and has the best surface record in this field — placing in 5 of 10 dirt starts and boasting a 50% in-the-money rate. The concern is legitimate: jockey Larry Marquez has posted just a 6% win rate and a 25% in-the-money clip over the past year, which is a real drag on a horse with solid underlying form. At 2/1 on the morning line, the win price feels too short given that jockey concern, but the place slot still makes sense.

One Dashing Hearts sits third in the ratings at 67.43 and is worth including in exotics on the strength of the second-fastest recent speed figure in the field at 11.64 sec/furlong. A 33% in-the-money rate gives some baseline confidence. The jockey-horse combo concern — a 13% win rate and 43% in-the-money finish rate — is a flag, but at 8/1 on the morning line, the show price gives you enough cushion to take a shot in the bottom of a tri or super.

Ahsome Blossom is the morning line favorite at 9/5 and comes backed by the 'A'-graded Luis A. Valenzuela — an 18% win rate and 51% in-the-money over the past year. The 50% career in-the-money rate and 1 win from 14 dirt starts show a horse that consistently runs well without necessarily breaking through to the winner's circle. At 9/5, the win price is a bit thin, but it's a sensible place horse with the talent to outrun our top pick on a given day. The age concern at 6 years old is worth keeping in mind.

My Favorite Spirit brings a volume-based argument that's hard to ignore: 12 placings from 21 dirt starts is a remarkable consistency mark, and hitting the board in 4 of the last 6 races confirms the recent form is live. The 'A-' trainer grade from Luis Daniel Iturralde gives confidence in the preparation. The flag here is a Lasix edge — 7 horses in this race are using it and My Favorite Spirit is not, which is a real consideration at this level. At 5/1, the show slot is where the value sits.

Holy Moli Mitole is the horse you want underneath Reno — a 33% career win rate, an 83% in-the-money rate, and placing in each of the last 5 consecutive starts. That's as reliable a form cycle as you'll find. The 'A'-graded Valenzuela is in the irons, adding one of tonight's strongest jockey profiles. At 5/2, this horse makes a legitimate case to beat Reno outright and is a must-include in exactas.

Hold My Scotch brings back-to-back positives that matter: a win last time out on October 23rd and a perfect 2-for-2 record at Zia Park specifically. Local track form at a bullpen circuit like Zia carries real weight, and a 58% career in-the-money rate from 12 dirt starts confirms this isn't a one-hit wonder. At 7/2, there's reasonable value for a third horse in your exotic tickets, and the strong local form makes it a real contender for a spot on the board.

Jet Black Viper sits second in the ratings at 70.83 and leads the field in recent race speed at 11.47 sec/furlong — in a 400-yard sprint, pace figures matter more than almost anything else. Placing in 4 of the last 6 starts suggests consistent recent form. The concern is a 0-for-3 record at Zia Park and just 1 placing in 6 starts at this exact distance, which creates genuine doubt about whether the form translates today. At 9/2, the place slot feels like the right level of exposure.

Chimes Efforts checks in at a solid 68.54 rating and posts the second-fastest recent speed figure in the field at 11.50 sec/furlong. A 45% career in-the-money rate and an 18% career win percentage show a horse that's been a consistent performer. At 8/1 on the morning line, this is the best value play in an exotic if you're looking for a show horse that can run with the leaders early — which matters enormously in a 400-yard dash.

Papa Two rates second in the field at 78.37 and brings a surface record that stands out in a maiden field: placing in 5 of 9 career dirt starts, including 3 of the last 5 races. That kind of consistent form is rare in maiden company. The concern is a 0-for-4 record at the 400-yard distance specifically — this horse has form, but the trip might be its weakest spot. At 3/1, the morning line is fair and the place slot suits the horse's profile.

Siennas First Corona lands third in the ratings at 74.97 and pairs an 'A-' jockey and 'A-' trainer — Edgar Martinez and Angel Dominguez — with the second-fastest recent speed figure in the field at 11.30 sec/furlong. A 40% in-the-money rate from career starts confirms the horse has shown the ability to compete. At 6/1, there's enough value here to make this a solid exotic inclusion, particularly in trifectas where you need a live show horse.

Richrollnwagon rates second in the field at 82.10 and leads all horses in this race with the fastest recent speed figure at 11.16 sec/furlong — a compelling pace angle in a 400-yard sprint. With 5 wins from 24 dirt starts and placing in 13 of those races, there's a deep form book behind this horse. The flag worth noting is a jockey-horse combo that has only posted a 14% win rate and a 41% in-the-money mark — not the strongest partnership. At 4/1, the place ticket is where the value sits.

Political Motions rates third in the field at 74.46 and is in the conversation largely on speed — third-fastest recent figure in the race at 11.27 sec/furlong, nearly matching the top two. The 3 wins and 9 placings from 18 dirt starts is a solid record, and the 'A'-graded trainer Joaquin Lopez adds confidence. The 0-for-2 record at Zia Park is a local concern, but at 5/1 on the morning line, the show price gives you enough cushion to take the shot in the bottom of your horizontals.