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Woodbine Picks & Predictions — November 13, 2026

November 13, 20268 racesAll Woodbine picks

Best bets at Woodbine today

Race 16MandalenaML 2/11:05 PM EST

Race 2 is free with an account, and the other 6 races are for members.

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Last 30 days at Woodbine: our top pick won 8 of 32 races (25%) and finished in the money in 14.

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Mandalena is our best bet among today's free races — leading the Race 1 Maiden Optional Claiming with the fastest recent race speed on the card at 12.84 sec/furlong, a 31.52% simulated win probability, and a jockey sitting at 21% wins and 52% in-the-money over the past year. At a 2/1 morning line, the value is fair but the credentials are real.

The backdrop today: Woodbine is cold and overcast at 40°F, and the entire eight-race card runs on dirt. That matters. When temperatures drop like this in November, track surfaces can play firmer or more variable depending on how the strip has been maintained — and speed figures earned in these late-season conditions carry a different weight than a mid-summer performance. Keep that context in mind as you work through the card.

Eight races, all on the main track, ranging from maiden claimers to open claimers, mostly sprints and one-turn routes. It's a compact Friday card with some legitimate angles worth digging into — especially in the backend races where our models flagged some interesting price plays.

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Race 1

1:05 PM EST

Maiden Optional Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

A wide-open maiden field where all seven runners are classified as 'unproven' on style — no clear pace picture emerges, but the top two in the TrackWiz ratings hold a significant edge over the rest of the field, making the top half of the card a reasonable structure to attack.

win6MandalenaML 2/1

Mandalena tops our ratings at 88.54 and leads the entire field in recent race speed at 12.84 seconds per furlong — a meaningful edge when you're trying to separate horses in a maiden field with zero career wins across the board. She also posted the fastest workout among all starters over the past month at 12.24 sec/fur, suggesting she's training into this race in peak form. Jockey Pietro Moran has posted a 21% win rate and hit the board in 52% of starts over the past year — a reliable partner. Our 10,000 simulations gave her a 31.5% win share, the highest in the field. The knock is consistency — just one placing in her last five — but her raw speed metrics separate her from this group.

place3Street SavantML 5/2

Street Savant is the second-rated horse in the race at 81.64 and comes in with a jockey angle worth noting — Fraser Aebly has won 21% of his mounts and finished in the money 57% of the time over the past year, one of the stronger pilot numbers on today's card. She clocks in third for recent race speed at 12.92 sec/fur, which isn't far off the top, and her TrackWiz sim win share of 26% reflects a legitimate contender. The concern is a thin in-the-money record at Woodbine specifically — just one placing in six tries here — but at 5/2 morning line she's a natural play underneath the top pick.

show7Crime BossML 3/1

Crime Boss shows up third on the ratings at 56.67 and brings a noteworthy workout angle — she ranked second-best in the field over the past month at 12.30 sec/fur, suggesting she's training well into this spot. Trainer Julia Carey gets an 'A' grade from our model, which is solid in a wide-open maiden. The concern to flag is her recent race speed, which ranked dead last in this field at 14.00 sec/fur — a substantial gap from the leaders — and she failed to place in her most recent start. Use her underneath in exotics as a price-based hedge.

We ran Race 1 10,000 times. Most wins:

6Mandalena32%
3Street Savant26%
7Crime Boss14%

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Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 1 is the one free look we're giving everyone today, and Mandalena earns it. She tops the field on recent race speed, her jockey is running hot over the past year, and our TrackWiz rating of 88.54 is comfortably the highest on the free portion of the card. In a Maiden Optional Claiming field — where you're often sorting through horses that have either never won or are being dropped in price to find one — a horse with both a speed edge and a reliable pilot is exactly what you want to anchor a ticket.

The all-dirt surface throughout the card means consistency in conditions matters. Horses with positive dirt records — like Gold Dragon in Race 3, who has placed in two of four dirt starts — may reward careful attention even deeper in the card. For the full picture, the premium breakdown has you covered.

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

1:33 PM EST

Maiden Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

An all-maiden claiming sprint where one horse has a sizable ratings advantage over a competitive mid-tier cluster, but several pace and form angles underneath make this race worth spreading in exotics — the top pick's no-Lasix status in a field of nine Lasix users is the main storyline to watch.

win10FriendlyML 9/2

Friendly tops our ratings at 82.65 — a meaningful 20-point gap over the third-ranked horse in the field — and her recent race speed is the fastest in the field at 12.70 sec/fur, which is exactly what you want to see in a sprint. She's placed in her last two starts and hits the board 37% of the time in her career, the best in-the-money figure in this field by a comfortable margin. Our simulations have her winning 24% of the time, well above her 9/2 morning line implied probability. The legitimate concern: she's not using Lasix while nine rivals are, which can be a hidden disadvantage — keep that in mind when sizing your bet.

place5WhiskytangodiscoML 20/1

Whiskytangodisco is a morning-line longshot at 20/1, but the TrackWiz data makes a compelling case for the place slot. She's placed in four of her last six races and has a perfect 4-for-4 in-the-money record at today's exact distance of seven furlongs — that's a stat that's hard to ignore. The red flag is a zero-for-career record on dirt surface, and the claiming price is stepped up from $7,000 to $9,500. But with a 62.29 TrackWiz rating and that distance-specific edge, she's a live exotic play at a big price.

show4Proudly CanadianML 8/1

Proudly Canadian sits third in our ratings at 61.79 and clocks in second-fastest for recent race speed at 12.74 sec/fur, just four hundredths of a second behind the top pick — she's not far off on pure speed. Jockey Jeffrey Ian Alderson carries a B+ grade and an in-the-money record of 18% across his career mounts. The concern is a thin showing at Woodbine specifically — just one placing in ten tries at this track — but at 8/1 she offers show value in a field where the favorites carry some risk.

We ran Race 2 10,000 times. Most wins:

10Friendly24%
9Joshua Strike17%
7Messy Riding13%

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

2:04 PM EST

Maiden Optional Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

A maiden optional claiming sprint with a legitimate class standout at the top of the ratings, but a deep mid-pack of contenders rated within 20 points of each other — this is a race where the right price play underneath could pay handsomely.

win5Gold DragonML 6/1

Gold Dragon leads our ratings at 72.98 and is the class of this field on form context — she's placed in two of four starts on dirt and two of three sprint races, giving her the best surface and distance credentials in the race. With a 50% career in-the-money rate and trainer Robert P. Tiller earning an 'A' grade, the connections are solid. Our sims gave her a 19.76% win share, narrowly edging King in Town for the top simulation spot. The 6/1 morning line represents genuine value for a horse that leads the field in both our ratings and in-the-money percentage.

place3King in TownML 5/2

King in Town shows the fastest recent race speed in the field at 12.42 sec/fur — a significant edge in a sprint — and also drilled the second-best workout over the past month at 12.20 sec/fur. Trainer Josie Carroll earns an 'A-' grade, and the horse has shown some talent even if he hasn't cashed in his last two trips at Woodbine. At 5/2 on the morning line, he's fairly priced but very much in the mix to hit the board based on pure speed metrics.

show4Flatter SpunML 7/2

Flatter Spun is an interesting horse to include in your exotics — she has no recent race speed figure in the data (possibly first time out or missing), but the Moran/Attard jockey-trainer combo has a 21% win rate and 50% in-the-money rate together over the past year, which is a legitimate pairing angle. Pietro Moran individually has posted a 21% win rate and 52% in-the-money mark over the same span. At 7/2 she won't be a price play, but she's a logical landing spot for a race where the top two picks face some question marks.

We ran Race 3 10,000 times. Most wins:

5Gold Dragon20%
3King in Town19%
4Flatter Spun15%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 4

2:33 PM EST

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

An older claiming sprint with proven horses posting real career win percentages — unlike the maiden races earlier on the card — led by a heavy favorite whose numbers are strong but whose age raises a legitimate question about whether he can still run to his best.

win1Indian PeakML 8/5

Indian Peak leads our ratings at 86.22 — a clear margin over the field — and his credentials on this surface are real: three wins and a 47% in-the-money rate across 20 dirt starts. Ranked second in recent race speed at 12.06 sec/fur, he's tracking the right direction heading in. Pietro Moran in the irons is a consistent plus, sitting at 21% wins and 52% in-the-money over the past year. The 9-year-old age flag is real and worth respecting at 8/5, but our sims gave him 27.8% — the highest in the race — and the class and form combo is hard to beat here.

place10Forest BuzzML 7/2

Forest Buzz is right behind Indian Peak in our ratings at 80.06 and is coming in with momentum — placed in his last two starts and ranks third in recent race speed at 12.08 sec/fur, essentially even with the top pick. His dirt record shows two wins and a 43% in-the-money rate across 18 starts, which is a credible body of work. The flag here is a short layoff — just 21 days when he performs better with 30 or more — so watch for signs of freshness in the paddock. At 7/2 he's a natural place bet.

show8Truly MischiefML 6/1

Truly Mischief earns a 75.93 TrackWiz rating and actually leads the entire field in recent race speed at 11.99 sec/fur — the only horse in this race cracking the 12-second barrier. She's posted nine wins and a 55% in-the-money rate across 29 dirt starts, which is an exceptional body of work for a claiming horse. Fraser Aebly's 21% win rate and 57% in-the-money mark make this a sharp pairing. The 7-year-old concern is noted, but the speed figure alone justifies show inclusion.

We ran Race 4 10,000 times. Most wins:

1Indian Peak28%
10Forest Buzz19%
8Truly Mischief14%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

Race 5

3:03 PM EST

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

The top two horses in this claiming sprint are separated by just over four points in our ratings — it shapes up as a two-horse battle at the top with a legitimate third wheel rounding out the exotics, while the rest of the field trails by a wide margin.

win3Pine KnollML 7/5

Pine Knoll leads our ratings at 89.42 — the highest single-race rating on the entire card through five races — and has posted consecutive in-the-money finishes in his last five races, the best current form streak in this field. His trainer earns an 'A' grade, and jockey Juan Crawford has gone to the board 20% of the time with 51% in-the-money over the past year. At 7/5 he's a short price, but our sims gave him a 31.3% win share and his 51% career in-the-money rate across a full book of business backs up the confidence. The age flag at nine years old is the only real caution flag.

place1DissectologistML 3/1

Dissectologist is essentially Pine Knoll's chief rival on the numbers — a 85.01 rating and the fastest recent race speed in the field at 12.10 sec/fur. His career profile shows six wins and a 52% in-the-money rate across 30 dirt starts, which is a substantial and reliable résumé. Fraser Aebly, one of the sharper riders on today's card, is aboard. At 3/1 morning line and a 23.7% sim win share, this is a horse that could easily flip the result if Pine Knoll hits any trouble.

show7SpringerML 9/2

Springer rounds out the picks at 76.24 in our ratings and brings a hot hand into this race — placed in five of his last six starts, with the second-fastest recent race speed at 12.12 sec/fur, essentially tied with Pine Knoll on the speedometer. His dirt record shows three wins and a 44% in-the-money rate across 15 starts. At 9/2, he offers show value in a race where the top two are likely to be bet down, and his recent form makes him a legitimate threat to run into the exacta or trifecta.

We ran Race 5 10,000 times. Most wins:

3Pine Knoll31%
1Dissectologist24%
7Springer17%

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Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

Race 6

3:34 PM EST

Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

A twelve-horse claiming route that's loaded with class droppers — several horses falling dramatically in claiming price — which makes pace and recent form the key sorting tools in what figures to be a wide-open affair despite a clear ratings leader.

win9Can't JumpML 3/1

Can't Jump tops our ratings at 87.08 and brings a credible dirt route profile to the table — two wins and an 8-of-13 in-the-money rate on this surface, plus a 53% career in-the-money mark. His recent race speed ranks third in the field at 12.69 sec/fur, and Pietro Moran is sitting at 21% wins and 52% in-the-money over the past year. Our sims gave him 25.8% — the highest in this large field. At 3/1 morning line, he's fairly priced for the top-rated horse, and the combination of a proven dirt route record and sharp connections makes him the logical anchor.

place12Encore MoML 7/2

Encore Mo brings strong recent form into this spot — placed in his last two starts and shows two wins in just three tries at medium distance races (the 1 1/16-mile trip). That's a noteworthy pattern at today's exact distance. He also benefits from a claiming price drop, which puts him in a more favorable competitive spot. With a 25% career win rate and an 'A' trainer grade from William Tharrenos, the connections are solid. At 7/2, he's a natural play for second.

show5Fast and ReadyML 8/1

Fast and Ready is quietly interesting at 8/1 morning line — his distance record is the most compelling angle in his profile: one win and seven in-the-money finishes in nine starts at exactly 1 1/16 miles. That's an 8-of-9 board record at today's trip, which is a very strong pattern. He's also placed in his last two starts and benefits from a claiming price drop. The 'C' trainer and jockey grades are the reason he's priced where he is, but as a show play in a twelve-horse field, the distance affinity is worth taking seriously.

We ran Race 6 10,000 times. Most wins:

9Can't Jump26%
12Encore Mo16%
5Fast and Ready10%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 12 runners

Race 7

4:05 PM EST

Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

Holiday Snooze enters as the clear ratings leader but comes in short on rest, and a credible second horse makes the top of the card competitive — this is a race with a vulnerable favorite setup that could make the exacta worth something if the form reversal happens.

win7Holiday SnoozeML 5/2

Holiday Snooze leads our ratings at 87.81 and has posted two wins and a 53% in-the-money rate across 12 dirt starts — a genuinely strong profile for this level. His recent race speed ranks second in the field at 12.45 sec/fur, and Ryan Munger brings a 19% win rate and 55% in-the-money mark over the past year. Our sims gave him 27.1%, the top figure in the race. The legitimate knock: just 19 days between starts when he performs better with 30 or more, and his workout times over the past month ranked seventh out of nine starters. At 5/2 he's the play, but acknowledge those freshness flags.

place5ConnorML 3/1

Connor sits second in our ratings at 77.08 and brings the right pairing to back it up — the Pietro Moran/Julia Carey combo has a 21% win rate and 52% in-the-money rate together over the past year, a strong unit statistic. His dirt record shows two wins and a 6-of-12 in-the-money rate. If Holiday Snooze's short rest becomes a factor in the stretch, Connor is well-positioned to pick up the pieces. Our sims gave him a 20.6% win share, a meaningful number for the second pick.

show4Fleet of FootML 8/1

Fleet of Foot is an intriguing show play at 8/1 — he won his last start on October 16th and brings a 40% career win percentage, though that figure comes with a small sample. Fraser Aebly, posting a 21% win rate and 57% in-the-money mark over the past year, keeps the mount. The concern is a claiming price jump from $15,000 to $25,000 and a poor dirt record (just one placing in four tries), so he's moving up in class to a surface where he hasn't shown much. The recent win and sharp jockey make him worth including in trifecta tickets at the right price.

We ran Race 7 10,000 times. Most wins:

7Holiday Snooze27%
5Connor21%
2Film Academy11%

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Race 8

4:35 PM EST

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

A thirteen-horse claiming sprint — the largest field on the card — where the top-rated horse has posted an eye-catching in-the-money rate and is on a hot streak, though a claiming price bump gives bettors reason to pause before making him an odds-on certainty.

win8Lake Como HeistML 8/1

Lake Como Heist leads our ratings at 79.79 and carries the most impressive recent in-the-money credentials in the race — an 83% career in-the-money rate and placed in each of her last five starts. She also posts the fastest recent race speed in the field at 12.21 sec/fur and has gone to the board in five of six dirt starts, demonstrating consistent surface affinity. Jeffrey Ian Alderson earns a B+ jockey grade and our sims gave her a 15.9% win share in this thirteen-horse field, which is the highest of any runner. The claiming price bump from $7,500 to $9,500 is the concern, but the form is simply too strong to dismiss.

place7ZuccheroML 7/2

Zucchero sits second in our ratings at 74.92 and brings the top jockey-trainer combination angle in the race — Pietro Moran and Kevin Attard together have posted a 21% win rate and 50% in-the-money mark over the past year as a team. He ranks third in recent race speed at 12.43 sec/fur and his TrackWiz sim win share of 18.0% is the second highest in the field. The workout concern is real — ninth in the field over the past month at 12.85 sec/fur — but the in-race speed profile and sharp connections make him a logical place play at 7/2.

show4Lonny's GambleML 3/1

Lonny's Gamble checks in third on our ratings at 64.58 and benefits from a sharp jockey angle — Fraser Aebly's 21% wins and 57% in-the-money mark over the past year give this horse a live rider at a price. The claiming price dropped dramatically from $25,000 to $10,000, which is a significant class relief and an angle worth noting. The workout numbers are a concern — ranked eleventh in the field at 13.10 sec/fur — but the class drop combined with Aebly in the irons makes her worth including in trifecta combinations at 3/1.

We ran Race 8 10,000 times. Most wins:

7Zucchero18%
8Lake Como Heist16%
4Lonny's Gamble16%

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Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 13 runners

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Bottom line for today: Mandalena in Race 1 is the free play worth making, backed by the best speed numbers and a sharp jockey angle. Cold weather, all-dirt racing, and a card that gets more interesting the deeper you go — that's Woodbine on a November Friday. Full-card analysis including pace projections, exotic strategies, and our Race 8 longshot angle is available to subscribers at TrackWiz premium. Good luck out there — stay warm and bet smart.

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