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Woodbine Picks & Predictions — October 22, 2026

October 22, 20268 racesAll Woodbine picks

It's a crisp fall Thursday at Woodbine — partly cloudy skies, 64°F, and exactly the kind of afternoon that makes late-October turf racing at this track so compelling. The grass should be running beautifully, and with six of today's eight races contested on the lawn, surface form is going to matter enormously.

We've got a full eight-race card to break down, and the mix is strong — allowance optional claimers, claiming races at multiple distances, and a pair of maiden events to close out the card. Distances stretch from a sharp 5½-furlong dirt sprint in Race 3 all the way out to the 1⅜-mile turf route in Race 6, so there's something here for every handicapping style.

Three races are unlocked and free for every TrackWiz reader today, giving you solid coverage through the early card. The premium full-card breakdown is where the real edge lives — read on to see what's waiting for subscribers.

Best Bets

Race 1

7:15 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Turf

A short-field turf sprint with a clear top-rated standout, but there's legitimate value hiding underneath the favorite at double-digit odds.

win6Charmingly EvasiveML 8/5

Charmingly Evasive is the class of this field and it isn't particularly close — her TrackWiz rating of 89.12 towers over everyone else, and a 40% career win rate tells you this mare knows how to finish. Emma-Jayne Wilson is one of Woodbine's most reliable pilots, and the Mark Casse barn is always live on the Woodbine turf. The 8/5 morning line feels right; this is a horse you're likely going to need in your exotics regardless.

place5Luz de La LunaML 4/1

Luz de La Luna at 4/1 is worth a serious look beneath the favorite. Her TrackWiz rating of 65.7 leads the second tier of this field and her 21% career win rate is respectable for this level. David Borsk sends her out with Jeffrey Alderson, and if the pace scenario plays into her hands, she's got the profile to be running at the end.

show2I Got MurphedML 10/1

I Got Murphed is a sneaky inclusion at 10/1 — that's longshot odds on a horse with a 40% career win rate, which is tied for the best in the field. Tino Attard conditions him and Pietro Moran gets the call, a pairing that knows how to place horses at Woodbine. The rating of 64.66 ranks third overall, making this a legitimate show-bet overlay worth keying in your exactas.

Race 2

7:47 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

A nine-horse turf claiming route where the top two horses by TrackWiz rating are priced significantly higher than the morning-line favorite, setting up an interesting pace and value dynamic.

win8KeytotheparkML 3/1

Keytothepark tops our ratings at 87.08 and gets the 3/1 morning line, which feels like fair value for a horse in a claiming field. Pietro Moran hooks up with Tino Attard — a combination that consistently fires at Woodbine — and the 1 1/16-mile turf distance rewards horses with tactical ability over raw speed. The rating gap between Keytothepark and the rest of this field is meaningful enough to lean on.

place5Z TrainML 2/1

Z Train is the morning-line favorite at 2/1 and her 79.25 rating backs up that confidence. Rafael Manuel Hernandez is aboard, and he's one of the more effective riders in the Woodbine jockey colony. Her rate of only 10% career wins is the one cautionary flag, but in a route race on the green, pace setup matters more than raw win percentage.

show1Spicy BourbonML 6/1

Spicy Bourbon brings an impressive 40% career win rate into this spot, a stat that jumps off the page for a horse going off at 6/1. Tony Gattellaro has her sharp with a rating of 75.74, third-best in the field, and Daisuke Fukumoto is a capable handler at the distance. She's the kind of horse who sneaks into the frame while the top two are battling up front.

Race 3

8:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

The dirt sprinters come out for 5½ furlongs and one horse stands well above the rest — the question is whether the pace shape sets up for a closer to sneak in behind.

win7Rose FortuneML 5/2

Rose Fortune is the standout here with a rating of 87.81 — a full 17 points clear of the second-ranked horse — and Kevin Attard puts Pietro Moran in the irons, which is a top-shelf combination at this track. Her average speed figure of 56 is the best in the field, and at 5/2 on the morning line you're not getting a bargain, but you're getting the right horse. Trust the numbers here.

place9SympaticoML 8/1

Sympatico at 8/1 is a genuinely interesting place target — her rating of 70.93 ranks second in the field despite odds that imply she's a fringe contender. The 7% career win rate raises some eyebrows, but place and show frequency can diverge significantly from win percentage in these cheaper claiming events. If she finds a clean trip with Jason Hoyte up, she's got the profile to hit the board.

show8KimberlinaML 3/1

Kimberlina rates third in the field at 63.56 under the Sahin Civaci/Steve Attard connection. The 3/1 morning line puts her squarely in the mix, and her 55 average speed figure is right in the hunt. She's the type you want underneath in trifectas — legitimate rating, fair price, and a barn that places horses correctly.

Our three free best-bet races today span both surfaces and give you a nice cross-section of the card. Charmingly Evasive opens the day as our top-rated free pick with an 89.12 TrackWiz rating — the highest mark among all three unlocked races — going 6 furlongs on the turf at 8/5 morning line in Race 1. From there, Keytothepark draws our eye in the 1 1/16-mile turf claimer in Race 2, where route experience on the grass should be a key differentiator. And then Race 3 shifts to the dirt, where Rose Fortune comes in at 5/2 and earns an 87.81 rating in the 5½-furlong sprint — a solid number for a claiming field.

One thing connecting these three free plays: turf form and recent surface consistency are rewarded heavily in today's conditions. The partly cloudy weather and mild temps suggest a firm, true turf course — typically favorable for horses who can rate off the pace and finish strong rather than front-runners trying to steal one on a compromised surface.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

8:52 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Turf

This wide-bodied turf claimer at 6½ furlongs features a tightly-bunched trio at the top of our ratings, making exacta and trifecta construction the real play of the race.

win10Big ImaginationML 9/2

Big Imagination tops the TrackWiz leaderboard at 84.90 and draws in at 9/2 — which is actually some value given the rating. A 20% career win rate is the best among the top three contenders, and Jason Hoyte in the irons is a rider who knows Woodbine's turf course well. Kerron Palmer sends this one out in solid form, and the 6½-furlong turf distance suits horses with tactical speed.

place11Design DivaML 4/1

Design Diva at 4/1 is only a point behind the top pick at 83.78, making this essentially a dead heat at the top of the TrackWiz ratings. Pietro Moran takes the mount for Michael Mattine, and while her 5% career win rate is modest, she's clearly performing at a level that keeps her in contention. The tight rating gap between her and the top pick means she's your natural exacta partner.

show12Let's Go SouperML 7/2

Let's Go Souper at 7/2 rounds out a very strong trio, posting a 77.72 rating with a 54 average speed figure and Romero Ramsay Maragh up. Gail Cox is a savvy conditioner who puts horses in the right spots, and the 7/2 price makes her worth including deep in multi-race exotic tickets. At these odds she's underlaid slightly, but the form numbers back the price.

Race 5

9:24 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

A sprawling 12-horse dirt field at 6½ furlongs where the pace could turn chaotic — the horses at the top of our ratings are separated only by fractions, so trip luck will matter.

win10Spirit BearML 7/2

Spirit Bear earns the top spot here with an 81.22 TrackWiz rating and a 7/2 morning line that feels like fair market value. Pietro Moran pilots for Michael Wright Jr., and the 12% career win rate, while not eye-popping, speaks to a horse that competes honestly in tough spots. The 55 average speed figure is among the best in the field, and the 6½-furlong dirt distance is right in his wheelhouse.

place7Naughty DestinyML 3/1

Naughty Destiny at 3/1 sits just a whisker behind Spirit Bear at 79.98 in the ratings and represents a legitimate win threat in her own right. Christoff Douglas gets the call for Krista Cole, and a 13% career win rate in open claiming company is workable. She's the type who doesn't wow you on paper but consistently finds her way into the money.

show12Saucy NameML 10/1

Saucy Name at 10/1 is the value piece of this ticket — a 76.88 rating that ranks third in the field, but odds that imply she's an afterthought. Her 17% career win rate is actually the best of the top three picks, and the 55 average speed figure gives her the raw material to compete. Dane Nelson aboard for Kerron Palmer makes this a combo worth watching, especially if the speed horses burn each other up early.

Race 6

9:54 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 3/8 mi · Turf

Allowance optional claimers go long at 1⅜ miles on the turf — a grind of a race that favors horses with staying ability, and the pace scenario here could be decisive over the final quarter mile.

win3Moon ChannelML 5/2

Moon Channel leads our ratings at 87.81 and is competitively priced at 5/2 — this is a horse you back with confidence. Ryan Munger takes the mount for Katerina Vassilieva, and the 20% career win rate is solid for a route race on the green. The 53 average speed figure is right there with the rest of the field, and at this distance it's about efficiency and fitness more than raw pace numbers.

place6Star AttractionML 5/1

Star Attraction at 5/1 is the most compelling value in the race — an 80.36 rating that ranks second but odds that suggest the market hasn't fully caught up. Pietro Moran handles for Kevin Attard, and while only 12% career win rate is modest, the combination of trainer, jockey, and rating makes this a horse you don't want off your tickets. In a long route where anything can happen, she's a logical place play.

show2Bond MarketML 2/1

Bond Market is the 2/1 morning-line favorite and carries a respectable 74.60 rating with a 33% career win rate — the best win percentage in the field by a wide margin. Xarel Forde rides for Carlos Grant, and the trainer has this one positioned as the public pick for good reason. She's slightly below our top two in the ratings, which is why she lands in the show slot, but don't be surprised if she ends up on top.

Race 7

10:24 PM EDT

Maiden Optional Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

Maidens go two turns on the dirt and no horse in the field has ever won — it's a clean slate, and early pace shape plus TrackWiz ratings will do the heavy lifting in sorting this one out.

win5Stormy CloudML 2/1

Stormy Cloud is the standout in this maiden field with an 88.54 rating that's 30 points clear of the third-ranked contender — that kind of separation in a maiden field is a strong signal. Pietro Moran climbs aboard for Kevin Whiteley, and the 2/1 morning line reflects legitimate market confidence. The 53 average speed figure is in line with the better horses in the race, and in a field of first-time or lightly-raced maidens, top ratings tend to hit at a solid clip.

place3Bongino WarriorML 5/2

Bongino Warrior checks in with a 58.74 rating and a 5/2 morning line, making him the second choice on the morning line as well as in our ratings. Christoff Douglas is a capable rider for Anthony Husbands, and the 51 average speed figure is admittedly the softest of the top three — but in maiden racing, other factors like pedigree and training patterns can override pure speed.

show2My Swagg Daddy LouML 3/1

My Swagg Daddy Lou at 3/1 rounds out our top three with a 56.67 rating and Fraser Aebly up for William Tharrenos. The 53 average speed figure is clean and consistent, and Aebly is a rider who gets results from horses in their early career races. In maiden optional claiming company, he's a natural landing spot in the exotics.

Race 8

10:54 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A 10-horse maiden claiming sprint on the dirt where our top-rated horse is not the morning-line favorite, creating a potential overlay situation worth jumping on.

win4Too Many AmysML 4/1

Too Many Amys tops the TrackWiz ratings at 85.62 and is offered at 4/1 — notably longer than the 5/2 morning line on Candy Coated, making this a genuine overlay if the ratings hold. Dane Nelson takes the mount for Dale Powell, and the 54 average speed figure is tied for the best in the field. In maiden claiming company, a rating this high often reflects workouts and form factors that the morning line hasn't fully priced in.

place5Candy CoatedML 5/2

Candy Coated at 5/2 is the morning-line favorite and backs it up with a 73.80 rating — second in the field by a comfortable margin. Fraser Aebly is one of the sharper jockeys at Woodbine and Krista Cole consistently places maiden claimers effectively. The 54 average speed figure puts her right there with the top pick, and she's a logical place partner in exactas.

show1Super RedML 12/1

Super Red at 12/1 is the longshot value play in the show spot — a 62.89 rating that ranks third in the field but morning-line odds of 12/1 that say the public isn't looking. Juan Crawford navigates for Richard Hayashi, and the 54 average speed figure is legitimate for this level. In maiden claiming races with wide fields, the third horse on the board can pay handsomely, and Super Red has the rating to justify the exotic inclusion.

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Bottom line: Woodbine is serving up a turf-heavy fall card with real betting interest from top to bottom. Charmingly Evasive is our marquee free best bet to kick off the day, but the full-card picture has plenty of angles worth playing. Unlock the complete Race 4 through Race 8 breakdowns — pace projections, exotic strategies, and all — with a TrackWiz subscription at /pricing. Good luck at the windows today.

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