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Woodbine Picks & Predictions — October 17, 2026

October 17, 202611 racesAll Woodbine picks

It's a sharp, clear autumn afternoon at Woodbine — 46°F with good visibility and firm conditions underfoot. That kind of weather tends to keep the dirt track playing honest and fast, which is great news for speed-figure hunters and pace analysts alike. Eleven races are on the board today, mixing claiming battles, maiden events, turf routes, and a pair of stakes races to close out the card.

Speaking of those stakes, Races 9 and 10 are the main events. Military Time stretches out to 1 1/8 miles on dirt in Race 9, while Creed's Gold — the morning-line favorite at 2/1 — looks to fire in the 6-furlong sprint in Race 10. Two different tests, two genuine marquee contenders. It shapes up as a strong finish to what already looks like a well-constructed card.

Whether you're here for the early claimers, the turf maiden spots, or building exotics around the stakes races, TrackWiz has you covered across all 11 races today.

Best Bets

Race 1

5:05 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A competitive 6-furlong claiming opener where the morning line favorite doesn't hold the top TrackWiz rating — setting up a potential upset in the early going.

win4Hope She FiresML 5/2

Hope She Fires sits atop our ratings with an 86.43 score despite going off at 5/2 on the morning line, making her a solid win play with legitimate value attached. Trainer Devon Gittens sends her out with a consistent speed profile averaging 54, matching the pace of the top tier in this field. Her 5/2 price is fair but not steep — she's the class of the race on our numbers, and jockey Skye Chernetz gets the call in what looks like a winnable spot.

place1Miss Candy GirlML 6/1

Miss Candy Girl is the TrackWiz ratings leader at 82.71 and pairs a 12% career win rate with that 6/1 morning line — making her an outstanding value underneath Hope She Fires. Dane Nelson is up for trainer Dale A. Powell, and the combination of elite rating and generous odds makes her an ideal place play in exotics. Don't sleep on the 6/1 if you're building a quinella or exacta.

show6Beau PinkML 3/1

Beau Pink brings a matching 12% career win rate and a solid 77.44 TrackWiz rating at a fair 3/1 morning line. Trainer Sarah Ritchie keeps her sharp with an average speed of 54, right in the thick of this competitive cluster. She's the kind of consistent type who finds a piece of the purse, making her a reliable show anchor in multi-leg tickets.

Race 2

5:37 PM EDT

Maiden Optional Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

A wide-open maiden optional claiming sprint where no horse in the field has ever won, but the ratings spread is enormous — pointing toward a top-heavy result despite the maiden chaos.

win8AleatoricML 5/2

Aleatoric owns the field's top rating at 87.81 and draws the 5/2 morning line, a rare combination that suggests the market agrees with our model. Trainer Dale A. Desruisseaux sends her out with Pietro Moran aboard, a capable pairing that gives this horse every chance to break her maiden here. Her average speed of 54 is right in line with the pace scenario for 7 furlongs on dirt, and in a field where everyone is winless, her rating edge is commanding.

place6Money HeistML 6/1

Money Heist is the clear second choice on our board with a 78.93 rating at a juicy 6/1 — a horse the morning line appears to underestimate. Trainer John Mattine keeps this one ticking with an average speed of 55, actually the highest in the field, and Keveh Nicholls takes the mount. In a maiden race where the favorite could bounce or have issues breaking, Money Heist looks like a strong place alternative.

show7Flying SchulzyML 3/1

Flying Schulzy is the third choice at 3/1 with a 69.69 TrackWiz rating and Emma-Jayne Wilson in the irons — one of Woodbine's most reliable pilots. Trainer Rachel Halden posts an average speed of 55 for this entrant, and at just 3/1, Flying Schulzy is technically underpriced relative to our show position but still worth including in trifectas as a safe-landing option.

Race 3

6:12 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 7 1/2 fur · Turf

The morning line favorite and the TrackWiz top choice don't align in this turf allowance optional claimer — and the value play is hiding in plain sight at 7/2.

win3Sweet FusionML 7/2

Sweet Fusion tops our ratings at 86.35 and goes at 7/2 on the morning line — excellent value for a horse who is clearly the class of this field by our metrics. Trainer Mark E. Casse is one of Woodbine's elite conditioners, and Emma-Jayne Wilson in the saddle is a winning combo. A 14% career win rate is respectable, and with an average speed of 54 on turf at 7.5 furlongs, Sweet Fusion fits this distance-surface combo perfectly.

place1Lady IonaML 5/2

Lady Iona is the morning line favorite at 5/2 with an 18% career win rate — the best in this field — and she backs that up with a strong 75.03 TrackWiz rating. Fraser Aebly takes the mount for trainer Darwin D. Banach, and that win percentage speaks to a horse who consistently fires. She's a deserving place pick who might actually be the most reliable money finisher in the race.

show4Retail TherapistML 6/1

Retail Therapist at 6/1 is worth a look as the show piece, posting an 11% career win rate and the field's top average speed of 55 for trainer Sylvain Pion. Rafael Manuel Hernandez aboard gives this horse a strong rider, and the pace profile suggests Retail Therapist could get into a rhythm and steal a piece late at a price that covers your cost on trifectas.

Three races are open to all readers today — Races 1, 2, and 3 — and they give us a nice cross-section of the card. On the dirt sprint in Race 1, Hope She Fires draws our top rating at 86.43 with a 5/2 morning line, suggesting the oddsmakers and our model are largely in agreement. Race 2 shifts to 7 furlongs on the dirt with Aleatoric leading the way — our highest-rated free pick at 87.81 — in a Maiden Optional Claiming spot where pace shape could separate the field early. Race 3 moves to the turf for 7½ furlongs, where Sweet Fusion (7/2 morning line, 86.35 rating) gets a surface that suits her profile. With the cool, dry conditions today, the turf should be running true, which adds a little extra confidence to that selection.

One thread connecting all three free picks: none are heavy chalk, and all three are rated in the mid-to-high 80s, meaning our model sees genuine ability here — not just a default lean toward the favorite. These are solid, grounded plays to anchor your early card.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:44 PM EDT

Maiden Optional Claiming · 7 fur · Turf

A sprawling 11-horse maiden optional claiming turf field where the top two TrackWiz-rated horses are also the logical contenders — but the wide draw and maiden uncertainty keep things interesting.

win4ChinookML 9/2

Chinook heads our ratings at 84.90 and goes at 9/2 with Rafael Manuel Hernandez up for trainer Kevin Attard — a formidable combination at Woodbine. With an average speed of 54 on turf, this horse fits the 7-furlong distance well, and Attard is one of the sharper conditioners on the grounds. In a maiden field this deep, a horse with this rating separation deserves to be the win selection.

place8Karat GoldML 3/1

Karat Gold sits second on our board at 80.83 and draws the morning line favorite role at 3/1 — suggesting the market sees this as a contested top pick. Trainer Steven Chircop gets Fraser Aebly aboard, and Karat Gold's average speed of 55 is among the best in the field. At 3/1, the price is a little short for a maiden turf runner, but the talent profile justifies a strong place play.

show1Flatter for CatML 4/1

Flatter for Cat brings a 74.92 TrackWiz rating and a respectable 4/1 morning line for trainer Josie Carroll, one of Woodbine's most consistent barns. Ryan Munger takes the mount, and with an average speed of 54 on turf, this horse has the tools to fill out a trifecta. In a field with this many unknowns, backing the Carroll barn as a show piece at 4/1 is sound ticket-building strategy.

Race 5

7:16 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

The tightest ratings cluster of the day makes this maiden special weight sprint a genuine puzzle — no horse separates cleanly, and the morning line favorite isn't our top pick.

win1GoldaML 4/1

Golda sits atop our ratings at 55.00 — modest but ahead of the field — and goes at 4/1 for the powerhouse Mark E. Casse barn with Fraser Aebly in the irons. In a race where speed figures don't dramatically separate anyone, the trainer edge matters enormously, and Casse's operation consistently gets first-timers and lightly raced maidens ready to fire. The post-time price should be worth the investment as the best combination of rating and connections.

place10GroovinharmonyML 9/2

Groovinharmony is the second entry from the Josie Carroll barn at 9/2 on the morning line with a 54.17 rating — just a tick below Golda on our model. Pietro Moran gets the mount, and Carroll is another top Woodbine trainer who consistently hits with maiden runners. This horse is a natural fit beneath the top pick in your exotics.

show3Joan JettherML 6/1

Joan Jetther at 6/1 for trainer John Charalambous posts a 51.67 TrackWiz rating with Rafael Manuel Hernandez in the saddle — a reliable jockey who can coax a show finish out of a maiden. In a race this compressed on the ratings scale, having a 6/1 shot as the show piece gives your trifecta ticket legitimate upside on the payout while keeping a solid contender in the mix.

Race 6

7:48 PM EDT

Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Turf

A chalk-versus-value battle on the turf, where our top-rated horse goes at 5/1 and the morning line favorite is rated second — creating a genuine overlay situation in a short sprint.

win4BootsonthegroundML 5/1

Bootsontheground is our top pick at 84.17 and offers exceptional value at 5/1 on the morning line for trainer Mark E. Casse. The standout stat here is a 50% career win rate — meaning this horse wins half the time it runs — and Fraser Aebly takes the mount on a horse that averages 56 in speed. The Casse-Aebly combo at 5/1 in a 6-furlong turf sprint is exactly the kind of overlay TrackWiz analysis is built to find.

place2Philip BanksML 8/5

Philip Banks is the morning line favorite at 8/5 with a 33% career win rate and an 81.23 rating — the second-ranked horse on our board. Trainer Tony Michael Gattellaro sends this one out with Da-Sean Zavier Gaskin up, and the 56 average speed matches the pace of the top contenders. At 8/5, he's worth including for place but the value clearly lies with Bootsontheground above him.

show8GlasweigianML 8/1

Glasweigian is an intriguing show piece at 8/1 — a price that offers genuine upside in trifecta payouts — with a 64.00 TrackWiz rating that puts him solidly mid-field. Trainer Devon Gittens has Keveh Nicholls aboard, and a 10% career win rate with an average speed of 55 suggests this is a horse capable of running into the money in the right pace scenario.

Race 7

8:21 PM EDT

Optional Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

The top-rated horse in this optional claiming sprint goes off at 6/1 — a classic TrackWiz overlay situation where our model and the morning line are clearly at odds.

win7Vegas RoadML 6/1

Vegas Road heads our ratings at 82.71 and is listed at 6/1 on the morning line — a significant disconnect that TrackWiz analysis flags as the day's better overlays. Trainer Tara Neigel has this horse averaging 56 in speed, one of the top marks in the field, and Ryan Munger gets the mount in a race where the pace setup over 5.5 furlongs on dirt should suit a horse with this kind of cruising speed. At 6/1, this is the best bet of the first half of the card.

place5Rule the WavesML 5/2

Rule the Waves is the morning line second choice at 5/2 with a 76.90 rating and a 14% career win rate — a horse that figures prominently in the pace equation at 5.5 furlongs. Jose Luis Campos has the mount for trainer Shelley E. Fitzgerald, and the 56 average speed matches Vegas Road stride for stride. If the pace scenario sets up as expected, these two look like the class of the field.

show9One Shot ScottML 15/1

One Shot Scott is our longshot show piece at 15/1 with a 64.55 TrackWiz rating — well above the bottom half of this field despite the big price. A 20% career win rate is genuinely impressive and suggests this is a horse that fires when conditions align. Trainer Julie Belhumeur sends this one out with Da-Sean Zavier Gaskin up, and at 15/1, One Shot Scott could make trifectas pay significantly.

Race 8

8:54 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 7 fur · Turf

An 11-horse allowance optional claiming turf field where the two top-rated horses sit at 7/2 and 4/1 — fair prices that still offer some value against a deep but beatable lineup.

win11Miss SoothsayerML 7/2

Miss Soothsayer tops our ratings at 75.89 for the always-dangerous Mark E. Casse barn, going at 7/2 with Jose Luis Campos in the irons. An 18% career win rate shows consistent competence, and her average speed of 54 is right in line for 7 furlongs on turf. In a field this spread out by rating, Casse's top choice is the clear selection on our board.

place7Celebrity WarriorML 4/1

Celebrity Warrior is rated 74.11 — just a hair below Miss Soothsayer — and goes at 4/1 for trainer Kevin Attard with Pietro Moran up. An 11% career win rate is modest, but Attard is one of Woodbine's premier turf conditioners, and a 4/1 morning line on a horse this close to the top of the ratings makes for a natural place play in exotics. The Attard-Moran pairing has teeth on this surface.

show5Bullet JournalML 8/1

Bullet Journal at 8/1 is worth including as the show leg, posting a 65.14 TrackWiz rating with a 16% career win rate — both solid marks for this level. Trainer Catherine Day Phillips gets Ryan Munger aboard, and with an average speed of 55 on turf, this horse has the raw tools to earn a piece. The 8/1 morning line gives your trifecta real upside if the top two hold form.

Race 9

9:26 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 1/8 mi · Dirt

The day's premier stakes race at 1 1/8 miles on dirt features the card's most dominant rating leader and a horse with a perfect career win record lurking at 3/1 — this could get spicy late.

win9Military TimeML 5/2

Military Time is the clear TrackWiz top pick at 87.81 — the highest rating among all stakes horses today — and goes at 5/2 for trainer Mark E. Casse with Fraser Aebly up. A 37% career win rate at the stakes level is genuinely impressive, and while the average speed of 53 is conservative, Casse horses routinely find another gear when the lights come on at the mile-and-eighth. This is the marquee selection of the card.

place8Chaos AgentML 3/1

Chaos Agent is a fascinating place play at 3/1 with a 100% career win rate — unbeaten in all starts — for trainer Josie Carroll with Rafael Manuel Hernandez aboard. Our model rates this horse at 72.57, which is below Military Time but still among the top three in the field. The small sample that creates that 100% win record is worth noting as a caveat, but a horse coming in undefeated in a stakes spot demands respect as the place selection.

show7BrachettoML 6/1

Brachetto rounds out the trifecta at 6/1 with a 71.58 TrackWiz rating and a 28% career win rate for trainer Julia Carey. Ryan Munger gets the call, and at a mile and an eighth on dirt, Brachetto's profile suggests a horse who will be running late as others tire. The 6/1 morning line makes this an attractive show piece that could pay handsomely in a multi-horse ticket.

Race 10

9:57 PM EDT

Stakes · 6 fur · Dirt

The closing stakes sprint features a clear top-rated horse at 2/1 — but our second pick goes off at 15/1, making this the most intriguing value race of the entire card.

win10Creed's GoldML 2/1

Creed's Gold is the top-rated horse on the card for this race at 87.53 and is the 2/1 morning line choice — a rare instance where the market and our model are in perfect agreement. Trainer Mark E. Casse sends this one out with Rafael Manuel Hernandez, and that 37% career win rate at a 58 average speed — the highest in the field by a clear margin — says everything about the pace superiority this horse brings to a 6-furlong dirt sprint. Straightforward top pick.

place4SinclairityML 15/1

Sinclairity is the outstanding value play of the card at 15/1 with a 69.58 TrackWiz rating — third-highest in the field — and a 35% career win rate that absolutely does not justify that price. Trainer Kevin Attard gets Pietro Moran up, and with a 56 average speed, this horse can press or sit just off the pace in a sprint. Backing Sinclairity on top of Creed's Gold in the exacta at 15/1 is the kind of overlay that TrackWiz analysis exists to surface.

show5QuadrupleML 6/1

Quadruple at 6/1 for trainer Josie Carroll shows a 56.92 rating and gets Ryan Munger aboard in a race where the pace should be honest. The zero career win percentage is the one concern, but at 6/1 in a stakes sprint with solid connections, this horse can hit the board and pay well as the third leg of a trifecta anchored by Creed's Gold.

Race 11

10:27 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

The card closes with a three-way ratings tie at the top — Sunrise Drive, Jim's Hope, and Captivating Name are separated by a fraction of a point, setting up a genuine battle over a mile and a sixteenth on dirt.

win1Sunrise DriveML 6/1

Sunrise Drive edges the field with the top TrackWiz rating at 82.71 and goes at 6/1 — an overlay considering how close the top three are rated. Trainer Darren C. Glennon sends this one out with Eswan Flores up, and an 18% career win rate backs the numerical edge on our model. At a mile and a sixteenth, the horse who can rate well and sustain a run home often wins this kind of race, and Sunrise Drive's profile fits.

place2Jim's HopeML 4/1

Jim's Hope is essentially a dead heat with Sunrise Drive at 82.67 on our board and goes at a friendlier 4/1 for trainer Kelsey Mayhew with Ryan Munger up. A 15% career win rate and matching 53 average speed means this race truly comes down to the wire between these two, and Jim's Hope at 4/1 is the natural place selection — slight underdog on our ratings, but close enough to outrun the pick on any given day.

show4Captivating NameML 7/2

Captivating Name shares that 82.67 rating with Jim's Hope and goes at 7/2 as what appears to be the morning line favorite — trainer Kelly L. Callaghan sends this one out with Slade Callaghan up, a trainer-jockey duo that clearly knows this horse well. A 21% career win rate is the best among the top three, suggesting Captivating Name converts at the highest rate when conditions line up. Don't be surprised if this is the one that gets up.

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Today's Woodbine card is a legitimate all-day card — good early value in the free races, meaningful stakes action to close, and plenty of exotic opportunity in between. Hope She Fires, Aleatoric, and Sweet Fusion headline the free analysis, while Military Time and Creed's Gold are the names to watch in the stakes finale. Full pace breakdowns, exotic ticket structures, and the complete 11-race breakdown are all available to TrackWiz subscribers. Good luck at the windows today.

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