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Woodbine Picks & Predictions — September 6, 2026

September 6, 202610 racesAll Woodbine picks

Happy Sunday from Woodbine, where a partly cloudy sky and a comfortable 73°F are setting up near-ideal conditions for what looks like a really enjoyable 10-race card. The turf course should be running true today — no weather stress, no drainage concerns — and that matters a lot when five of your ten races are on the grass.

The headliner is Race 9, a 1 1/4-mile turf stakes that gives us a chance to see some of Woodbine's better horses stretch out on a distance that separates the true route runners from the pretenders. But honestly, there's plenty to dig into from the very first post, including a pair of maiden routes, a starter allowance on the dirt, and a longshot angle in Race 8 that our models really like at the price.

Ten races, three free previews for all readers, and seven premium breakdowns for TrackWiz subscribers. Let's get into it.

Best Bets

Race 1

5:00 PM EDT

Maiden Optional Claiming · 5 fur · Turf

A maiden turf sprint with a clear top-rated standout, but the morning line favorite is a first-time starter from a powerful barn — expect the public to split between class and pedigree hype.

win6Sienna AuraML 2/1

Sienna Aura carries the field's highest TrackWiz rating at 88.54, a significant margin above her closest rival, and that kind of separation in a maiden field is hard to ignore. She posts a 54 average speed figure, competitive for this five-furlong turf sprint, and trainer Darwin D. Banach has her ready to fire at a fair 2/1 morning line. Jockey Rafael Manuel Hernandez gets the call, and with the top rating and solid tactical speed, she profiles as a wire-to-wire type that can control this short race from the jump.

place3Surfside BeachML 7/2

Surfside Beach is our place pick and brings the second-highest rating in the field at 64.17 along with an average speed figure of 55 — actually the top mark among horses with recorded figures. Trainer Nicholas Nosowenko has her primed at a generous 7/2 morning line, and Eswan Flores is a capable rider for this spot. She's the logical win contender if Sienna Aura hits any trouble.

show4LakerML 5/2

Laker draws attention as the public's second choice at 5/2 despite having no recorded speed figure — a sign that trainer Mark E. Casse's reputation is doing the heavy lifting in the morning line. The Casse barn has a long track record of producing well-prepared first-time starters on turf, making Laker a reasonable show inclusion even without a prior figure to anchor expectations. Use her underneath in exactas and trifectas as a hedge against the unknown.

Race 2

5:30 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

Silver Raleigh stands out as a significant class and rating advantage in this claiming field, but keep an eye on the pace — several closers could make this interesting in the stretch of a 1 1/16-mile dirt route.

win7Silver RaleighML 5/2

Silver Raleigh tops the TrackWiz ratings at 87.81 — a full 17 points clear of the next-best horse — which is a commanding edge in a claiming field like this. He draws Rafael Manuel Hernandez in the irons, one of the sharper riders at Woodbine, and trainer Kevin Whiteley has him posted at a fair 5/2 on the morning line. At 1 1/16 miles on the dirt, this is a distance that rewards horses who can rate and sustain their run, and Silver Raleigh's profile fits the bill.

place1Lonny's GambleML 2/1

Lonny's Gamble opens as the morning line favorite at 2/1, and a TrackWiz rating of 70.24 justifies a spot in the exotics even if Silver Raleigh is the stronger play on top. Trainer Josie Carroll is a sharp conditioner with a history of placing horses well, and Fraser Aebly is a solid tactical jockey for a route. A career win rate of 5% is modest, but claiming horses often cycle into form, and Lonny's Gamble profiles as the most likely to chase Silver Raleigh home.

show5Draw BootML 15/1

Draw Boot is the value of the race — a 63.48 rating that ranks third in the field, but going off at 15/1 on the morning line. That's a significant disconnect worth exploiting in the exotics. A 16% career win percentage is legitimately competitive for this level, and trainer David Cotey with Skye Chernetz up gives this horse a live handler at a big price. Sneak him into your trifecta tickets.

Race 3

6:04 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

A tight Maiden Special Weight on the dirt at 6.5 furlongs where the ratings are bunched within a narrow band — no runaway standout, and the outcome may hinge on first-time starters who haven't shown their hand yet.

win4CanadaML 2/1

Canada tops the TrackWiz ratings in this maiden field at 58.33 and draws the talented Emma-Jayne Wilson in the irons, one of Woodbine's most accomplished jockeys. Trainer Mark E. Casse is among North America's elite conditioners, and when Casse spots a horse in an MSW, it's usually because they expect the animal to be competitive. No recorded speed figure means we're projecting off workouts and breeding, but the Casse-Wilson combo at 2/1 is a combination the crowd will rightfully respect.

place5Whatta MoveML 3/1

Whatta Move is our place pick and has something the favorites lack — a recorded average speed figure of 54, which gives us an actual benchmark to work with in a field of unknowns. Trainer Josie Carroll and jockey Fraser Aebly are a reliable combination at Woodbine, and a 3/1 morning line provides decent place value. She may not have the ceiling of Canada, but her form is visible and that matters in a maiden field full of question marks.

show6AtohiML 7/2

Atohi rounds out our selections at 7/2 with a rating of 55.83 — essentially a dead heat with Whatta Move in our model. Trainer Catherine Day Phillips has a knack for placing maiden horses, and Ryan Munger is a capable jockey in this spot. With no speed figure on record, Atohi is a projection play, but the price and the connections make her worth including in trifecta tickets as a lively show option.

Our three free races — Races 1, 2, and 3 — give you a solid cross-section of today's card. You've got a short turf sprint to kick things off, a classic dirt claiming route in the middle, and a maiden special weight on the dirt that could surface a lightly raced horse with a big future. Sienna Aura opens as the 2/1 morning-line choice in Race 1 and carries an 88.54 TrackWiz rating, one of the strongest marks on the entire card. Silver Raleigh follows at 5/2 in Race 2 with an 87.81 rating over a distance — 1 1/16 miles on the dirt — that rewards tactical horses who can rate early and kick late.

In Race 3, the morning line has Canada at 2/1 in a maiden special weight, but the 58.33 rating signals a wide-open field where pace scenario could be everything. These three races give you real betting opportunities right out of the gate, and the free analysis digs into each one in full detail.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:37 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 1/8 mi · Turf

A fascinating Allowance Optional Claiming turf route where the morning line favorite is NOT our top-rated horse — King d'Oro at 5/2 and Twowaycrossing at 6/1 both grade ahead of the 2/1 morning line choice, setting up real value in the exotics.

win6King d'OroML 5/2

King d'Oro leads our TrackWiz ratings at 87.34 and brings a career win percentage of 24% — the highest in this field — which tells us this horse knows how to close out a race. Trainer Donald C. MacRae has him in a distance-appropriate spot at 1 1/8 miles on the turf, and Pietro Moran is a savvy turf jockey who can rate a horse through a two-turn route. At 5/2 on the morning line, there's no windfall here, but the combination of elite rating and proven winning ability makes him our clear top selection.

place5TwowaycrossingML 6/1

Twowaycrossing is the value play in this race, plain and simple. A TrackWiz rating of 82.71 — second only to King d'Oro — combined with a 19% career win percentage and a 6/1 morning line creates a significant overlay situation. Trainer Richard L. Morden has this horse placed correctly, and Ryan Munger gets the call. If the pace sets up for closers on the Woodbine turf, Twowaycrossing has the kind of rating that can steal a win, let alone a place.

show4FaberML 2/1

Faber is the public's choice at 2/1 despite ranking third in our model at 56.80 — a notable discrepancy that makes us cautious about backing him to win but comfortable using him in show positions. Emma-Jayne Wilson is one of the best in the country and gives this horse every chance, and trainer Kevin Attard runs a sharp operation. He's a safe exotic anchor if you're keying the top two and need a reliable show option.

Race 5

7:12 PM EDT

Maiden Optional Claiming · 5 fur · Turf

Five-furlong turf sprint for maiden optional claiming, with the public split between a pair of horses at 2/1 and 5/2 — but our model sees the race slightly differently with a tighter edge than the prices suggest.

win1IllyML 5/2

Illy opens at 5/2 on the morning line and leads the TrackWiz ratings at 57.50 while posting the top average speed figure in the field at 55 — the only horse to pair a strong rating with elite recorded figures. Trainer Michael P. De Paulo has a solid track record at Woodbine, and Jalon L. Samuel picks up the mount. In a short five-furlong turf dash, early tactical speed is everything, and Illy's figures suggest she can put herself in a winning position from the first jump.

place6Holy AnitaML 3/1

Holy Anita is our place pick at 3/1 with a rating of 56.67 — virtually inseparable from Illy in our model — which makes the slight odds advantage interesting. Trainer Alexander P. Patykewich and jockey Daisuke Fukumoto team up in what should be a competitive effort. She records a 53 average speed figure and should be involved throughout, making her a strong place and exacta play at a price that isn't too short.

show5KintyreML 8/1

Kintyre is an interesting show play at 8/1 with a rating of 48.33 — not a standout on paper, but the price is generous enough to warrant exotic inclusion. Trainer Cary Brooks keeps a quiet but respectable operation, and David Moran is an underrated rider at this circuit. With no recorded speed figure, there's inherent risk, but a maiden optional claiming turf sprint is exactly the spot where a first-time-type can catch the field napping at a big price.

Race 6

7:47 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 1 1/8 mi · Turf

Nine horses entered in a Starter Optional Claiming turf route — El Kabong stands well clear on ratings but goes off at a surprisingly generous 4/1, creating a legitimate win value in a competitive field with multiple horses who can place.

win7El KabongML 4/1

El Kabong is the clear standout here with a TrackWiz rating of 85.62, nearly 18 points ahead of the next rival — a dominant edge for a starter allowance field. Trainer Tino Attard is one of Woodbine's shrewdest conditioners, and Pietro Moran is a top-level jockey who can get the best out of a horse in a two-turn turf route. At 4/1 on the morning line, this is a legitimate value — our model says he should be closer to favoritism, so if he's still available at that price, he deserves strong support.

place1One More BrewML 3/1

One More Brew is our place pick with a 67.56 rating and an impressive 19% career win percentage — the kind of horse who consistently makes his presence felt at the finish. Trainer Steven Chircop has him placed well in this starter optional claiming spot, and Jose Luis Campos is an experienced hand around the Woodbine turf. At 3/1, the morning line price is fair and he makes a logical place anchor in your exotics.

show9ExudeML 7/2

Exude comes in at 7/2 with a rating of 59.21 and a 13% career win rate, rounding out our top three on the TrackWiz model. Trainer Larry Attard — part of the extended Attard racing family that knows Woodbine intimately — saddles this horse with Fraser Aebly up, who's having a strong meet. The 1 1/8-mile turf distance is within Exude's wheelhouse and he profiles as a deep closer who can sweep up the show spot in a contentious finish.

Race 7

8:22 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 7 fur · Dirt

A full field of eleven goes in this Starter Allowance dirt race at seven furlongs, and while Endrick is an 8/5 morning line chalk, the TrackWiz rating backs up the favoritism — Armstrong at 3/1 is the play if you want a price.

win7EndrickML 8/5

Endrick is the horse in this race — a TrackWiz rating of 89.12 that is the field's best by a significant margin, paired with a career win percentage of 30% and an average speed figure of 56, which is the top number in the field. Trainer William Tharrenos has clearly pointed this horse at this spot, and Rafael Manuel Hernandez, one of the circuit's top riders, is in the irons. At 8/5, the price is short, but the data backs the market — this is one of those spots where laying the favorite is fighting the numbers.

place6ArmstrongML 3/1

Armstrong is the second pick and the value play in this race at 3/1 on the morning line. He posts a 71.51 rating and carries a 23% career win percentage, and his average speed figure of 56 matches Endrick's — meaning on pure figures, this is a two-horse race. Trainer Michael Wright, Jr. places the horse in a familiar spot with Fraser Aebly aboard, and if Endrick hits any kind of trouble in a full eleven-horse field, Armstrong is positioned to capitalize.

show2Uncaptured MomentML 6/1

Uncaptured Moment rounds out our picks at 6/1 with a 60.21 rating and a top average speed figure of 55 among the non-contenders. Trainer Ryan A. Jones runs him alongside stablemate Break the Spell, and Xarel Forde gets the assignment. The 12% career win rate is modest, but in a wide-open eleven-horse field at seven furlongs on the dirt, there's enough chaos to let a closer like Uncaptured Moment sneak into the show spot at a generous price.

Race 8

8:58 PM EDT

Maiden Optional Claiming · 7 1/2 fur · Turf

A twelve-horse maiden optional claiming turf field at 7.5 furlongs — wide open on paper, but three horses separate themselves significantly in the ratings, headlined by a price play in Baltic Sea at 8/1.

win11Baltic SeaML 8/1

Baltic Sea headlines our picks at 8/1 despite a TrackWiz rating of 79.79 that is second in this field — the disconnect between the rating and the morning line price is what draws our attention. Trainer Patrick Dixon has two horses entered in this race, and Baltic Sea draws Pietro Moran, typically the first call when a barn has multiple runners. An average speed figure of 53 is workable at this distance, and in a maiden turf field, a horse with this level of model support at 8/1 represents genuine win value.

place7Paddy HolidayML 5/2

Paddy Holiday opens as a 5/2 morning line favorite and carries the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 74.11, which makes him a logical place anchor. Trainer Kevin Attard runs a polished operation and Fraser Aebly is one of Woodbine's best when it comes to handling turf routes. An average speed figure of 53 is consistent, and the public's confidence in this horse at a short price is well-founded — just be careful about relying on him as a win single if you're hunting overlays.

show5AndtheoscargoestoML 8/1

Andtheoscargoesto — what a name — pops up as our show pick with the field's highest average speed figure at 56 and a TrackWiz rating of 73.37, which ranks third overall. At 8/1 on the morning line, there's real value here if the early speed figures translate to grass. Trainer Beverley Chubb sends this horse out with Juan Crawford up, and the raw speed figure advantage is significant enough to give this runner a live shot to grab a piece at a double-digit price.

Race 9

9:33 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 1/4 mi · Turf

Stakes action on the turf at 1 1/4 miles, and Dixie Law looks like a deserving favorite — a 44% career win rate and a near-top rating in what is otherwise a short, manageable field.

win2Dixie LawML 9/5

Dixie Law is the class of this stakes field, and the numbers back up that conclusion. A TrackWiz rating of 88.83 leads the race, and a 44% career win percentage is exceptional — nearly one in every two starts results in a victory, which is elite by any measure. Trainer Dale A. Desruisseaux puts Pietro Moran on board, a combination that knows how to handle turf routes, and at 9/5 on the morning line, the price reflects — but doesn't fully discount — how dominant this horse has been.

place6Cool TimesML 9/2

Cool Times is an intriguing place option at 9/2 morning line with a 78.44 rating and a 33% career win percentage — both figures are legitimately strong in a six-horse field. Trainer Katerina Vassilieva has Cool Times primed, and Rafael Manuel Hernandez takes the mount, giving this horse a top-tier pilot for a 1 1/4-mile turf test. If Dixie Law is not at her best or gets into a pace battle early, Cool Times has the proven winning record to capitalise.

show1Bold TimeML 3/1

Bold Time rounds out the trifecta at 3/1 morning line with a 63.61 rating and an impressive 25% career win percentage. Trainer Josie Carroll and jockey Fraser Aebly are a proven Woodbine combination, and Bold Time's average speed figure of 53 should be competitive at this level over 1 1/4 miles on the turf. In a six-horse stakes, the trifecta can be surprisingly generous when a 3/1 shot is your third wheel — he's the logical anchor.

Race 10

10:08 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A wide-open ten-horse sprint claiming field at six furlongs on the dirt where three horses cluster tightly at the top of our ratings — and the most interesting of the three is going off at 8/1.

win6Secret ThreatML 8/1

Secret Threat is our top pick at 8/1 on the morning line with a TrackWiz rating of 79.79 — the highest in this ten-horse field despite being far from the public's first choice. Trainer Michael Mattine has Eswan Flores in the irons, and a 12% career win rate is in line with the typical claiming horse. What makes Secret Threat stand out is the model edge at a price — in a six-furlong dirt sprint where pace can be unforgiving, a horse with this rating at nearly double-digit odds is exactly the kind of value play that keeps serious players coming back.

place1Harper CityML 5/2

Harper City opens as the 5/2 morning line choice with a strong 75.54 TrackWiz rating and a 12% career win rate, putting her in close company with our win pick. Pietro Moran rides for trainer Allen Desruisseaux, and an average speed figure of 54 matches the field's typical output. She's a logical betting favorite and a reliable place anchor — the public has done its homework here, and we don't disagree that she'll be in the mix.

show7DissectologistML 3/1

Dissectologist comes in at 3/1 with a 75.27 rating — essentially a three-way photo at the top of the model with Secret Threat and Harper City. Trainer Joe S. Russo sends this horse out with Fraser Aebly up, and a 15% career win rate is competitive for the claiming level. In a race where the top three on our model are separated by less than five points, Dissectologist is a natural trifecta inclusion, and at 3/1 he brings place and show value if the other two lead the way.

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Woodbine is giving us a gorgeous Sunday to play with — great weather, a deep card, and some genuinely interesting prices if you know where to look. Sienna Aura and Silver Raleigh lead the free selections, while Dixie Law and the 8/1 longshot Baltic Sea headline our premium card. Full analysis, pace projections, and exotic ticket breakdowns are all waiting for subscribers. Good luck out there — we'll see you at the windows.

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