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Woodbine Picks & Predictions — August 27, 2026

August 27, 20267 racesAll Woodbine picks

It's a beautiful Thursday at Woodbine — partly cloudy skies, 78°F, and the kind of late-summer afternoon that tends to produce fast times on the main track. With seven races spread across both dirt and turf, today's card has something for every type of player.

Four of the seven events go on the dirt, and with comfortable temperatures and no rain in the picture, expect a consistent surface throughout the day. The turf gets action in Races 2 and 6, with a late-card optional claiming sprint on the lawn that could be a spot for a sneaky value play. Keep that one on your radar.

The card is front-loaded with three free previews to get you started, and the back half features four premium races where the pace scenarios and exotic angles get particularly interesting.

Best Bets

Race 1

7:10 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A clear TrackWiz rating gap separates the top choice from the field in this 6-furlong dirt claimer, but a legitimate price horse lurks to complicate the exacta.

win6Signature SirML 8/5

Signature Sir is the standout of this field by a wide margin — a TrackWiz rating of 89.12 towers over everyone else in the race, and Pietro Moran gets the call in a spot where that edge should translate. The 8/5 morning line reflects the market's agreement, but even at short odds, you're backing a horse whose numbers say he belongs at a higher level than this company. At 6 furlongs on the dirt, pace-pressing types thrive, and Signature Sir profiles as exactly that. Hard to beat him here.

place2Lean Music MachineML 5/2

Lean Music Machine is interesting at 5/2 despite a modest 8% career win rate — what stands out is a TrackWiz rating of 63.72, second-best in the field by a meaningful margin. Trainer Devon Gittens sends him out with Sahin Civaci in the irons, a capable combination at this level. If Signature Sir gets into any kind of trouble or the pace collapses, Lean Music Machine is well-positioned to grab the place spot.

show4Big Bold and FirstML 6/1

Big Bold and First at 6/1 is a sneaky inclusion in your exotics. A 20% career win rate is genuinely solid for a claimer, and he shares the stable with race favorite Signature Sir under trainer William Tharrenos — that barn knows both horses well. His average speed figure matches the top tier of this field, and he brings enough competitive history to hit the board at a number that pays.

Race 2

7:43 PM EDT

Maiden Optional Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

Wide-open maiden optional claiming on the turf with a full field of first-time or lightly raced horses — ratings spread wide and a 12/1 shot cracks the top three.

win3ChervonarutaML 5/2

Chervonaruta tops our TrackWiz ratings at 87.81 and comes in off a 5/2 morning line that suggests the market also respects this runner. Jason Hoyte rides for trainer Michael P. De Paulo, and the 1 1/16-mile turf distance is exactly the kind of test that rewards horses with stamina and tactical pace — both qualities this profile suggests. In a maiden field where experience is thin across the board, posting the field's highest rating gives Chervonaruta a meaningful edge.

place1ChocolatecroissantML 3/1

Chocolatecroissant sits just behind at a 82.83 TrackWiz rating and gets the services of Pietro Moran for Kevin Attard's barn — Attard is one of the sharper trainers in the Woodbine ecosystem. The 3/1 morning line is fair, and in a race where the top two horses are genuinely close in the ratings, Chocolatecroissant landing the place spot is a highly realistic outcome.

show9Heart TapML 12/1

Heart Tap at 12/1 is the value play here, carrying a 72.13 TrackWiz rating — third-best in this field, which is impressive for a horse the morning line has so generously priced. Trainer Steven Chircop sends out Luis R. Reyes in a spot where the turf surface and extra distance could unlock something the odds don't reflect. If you're building a trifecta around the top two, Heart Tap is the show leg that offers real pop.

Race 3

8:19 PM EDT

Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

Three horses are tightly bunched at the top of the TrackWiz ratings in this 7-furlong dirt claimer, setting up a genuine pace battle that could benefit a closer.

win5ChargethatmountainML 7/2

Chargethatmountain leads our ratings at 86.35 and goes at 7/2 morning line — arguably the best value among the top contenders in this race. Trainer Devon Gittens puts Jason Hoyte up, and a 12% career win rate across what appears to be a competitive record adds credibility to this profile. At 7 furlongs on the dirt, horses with tactical speed who can sit just off the pace are dangerous, and Chargethatmountain fits that mold.

place3Closing AppealML 5/2

Closing Appeal is nearly as strong at 84.18 and gets Emma-Jayne Wilson, one of Woodbine's most accomplished riders. The 5/2 morning line actually makes this horse a reasonable win contender too, but the place spot is where we're targeting given Chargethatmountain's slight ratings edge. Trainer Frank Huarte is sending out a horse whose profile points to durability at this distance.

show4Scat HumorML 2/1

Scat Humor at 2/1 is the public's second choice and boasts a 77.65 TrackWiz rating — third in the field. Luis Contreras takes the mount for Ryan A. Jones, a barn that knows how to place horses. Even at a short show price, Scat Humor belongs in your exotics because the race shape could see the top two battle early, leaving this horse to finish powerfully through the stretch.

Our three free races today give you a solid foundation before the card heats up. On the dirt, Signature Sir opens the show in Race 1 — a 6-furlong claiming sprint where our TrackWiz rating of 89.12 puts him clear of the field at morning-line odds of 8/5. In Race 3, Chargethatmountain draws the eye in a 7-furlong dirt claiming event, offering a touch more value at 7/2 on the morning line with an 86.35 rating behind him.

Sandwiched between those two dirt sprints is a surface switch worth noting: Race 2 heads to the turf for a 1 1/16-mile Maiden Optional Claiming, where Chervonaruta tops our TrackWiz ratings at 87.81 and is posted at 5/2. When you have a top-rated horse on a turf route going at a fair price, that's a combination worth respecting. All three free picks are available now — no sign-in required.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

8:53 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Ondine Lady presents as a strong class edge at 3/1 against an even-money favorite that rates below her on our model — a potential overlay situation worth noting.

win1Ondine LadyML 3/1

Ondine Lady posts the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 87.08, and yet the morning line has her at 3/1 with Society's Kat listed as the even-money choice — that's a pricing discrepancy our model finds compelling. A 17% career win rate is sturdy, her average speed figures are in line with the top tier, and Edgar Zenteno gets the mount for Donald C. MacRae. At 6.5 furlongs on the dirt, early speed from post one can be a double-edged sword, but the talent here is undeniable.

place6Society's KatML EVN

Society's Kat is listed as the morning-line favorite at even money for trainer Michael Mattine, and Romero Ramsay Maragh is a dangerous rider. The 76.91 TrackWiz rating is second-best, but there's a real gap between her and Ondine Lady. She profiles as a pace-pressing type with an above-average speed figure who should hit the board — just not necessarily first.

show7Crumlin TroubleML 6/1

Crumlin Trouble at 6/1 brings a 21% career win rate, which is the highest winning percentage among horses that our model has rated in the competitive range for this race. Trainer James Bentley Begg and rider Keveh Nicholls team up with a horse who has a solid track record of hitting the board. The 69.21 TrackWiz rating keeps him in contention for third, and at 6/1, he offers legitimate exotic value.

Race 5

9:26 PM EDT

Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

Sil's Gamble dominates the TrackWiz ratings in this 7-furlong dirt claimer, but a deep field with multiple closers could set up an interesting pace scenario.

win6Sil's GambleML 5/2

Sil's Gamble tops the field with an 87.81 TrackWiz rating and goes at 5/2 morning line, which is fair value for the class of the race. Fraser Aebly rides for Josie Carroll — Carroll is one of the most respected conditioners at Woodbine, and she doesn't send horses out in spots they can't win. The 9% career win rate is modest, but ratings and trainer caliber tell a more complete story here. At 7 furlongs, horses with strong raw ratings tend to find room to express their ability.

place2Shining SilverML 7/2

Shining Silver is the most compelling secondary play in this race — a 28% career win rate is exceptional at any level, and that kind of hit rate speaks to a horse that competes hard every time. The 65.37 TrackWiz rating is second-best in the field, and Rafael Manuel Hernandez has the ability to get the most out of a horse at this trip. At 7/2, there's solid place value if Sil's Gamble dominates up front.

show7Worry LessML 10/1

Worry Less at 10/1 is our value inclusion, carrying the highest average speed figure in the race at 55. Trainer Beverley Chubb sends Juan Crawford out on a horse that looks underestimated by the morning line. A 61.92 TrackWiz rating puts Worry Less squarely in the competitive mix, and if the pace collapses in front — which is a real possibility with multiple front-runners in this field — a closer like this is exactly what you want underneath.

Race 6

9:58 PM EDT

Optional Claiming · 5 fur · Turf

Five furlongs on the turf is a sprint specialist's game, and Rose Fortune carries the class edge here despite not being the betting favorite.

win7Rose FortuneML 7/2

Rose Fortune sits atop the TrackWiz ratings at 86.35 and shows a 20% career win rate — a very healthy number that suggests this is a horse that knows how to close the deal. Pietro Moran rides for Kevin Attard, and that combination deserves full respect on any turf sprint at Woodbine. The 7/2 morning line is generous relative to the ratings edge, making this a legitimate best-bet situation where the price and the data are pointing in the same direction.

place4Sipping HistoryML 2/1

Sipping History is the morning-line favorite at 2/1 for trainer James Bentley Begg, and Keveh Nicholls is a capable pilot at this distance. The 77.51 TrackWiz rating is strong — second in the field — and a 10% career win rate on what appears to be a short-sprint turf record is reasonable. The public may have it slightly backwards with the odds, but Sipping History absolutely belongs on the board.

show3Vegas RoadML 6/1

Vegas Road at 6/1 is worth including in the exotics. A 56.24 TrackWiz rating is third-best here, and a 16% career win rate for trainer Tara Neigel hints at a horse that competes consistently. Ryan Munger gets the call, and at 5 furlongs on the turf — where a step-up in field size can scatter the pace — a horse with a clean profile and a fair price makes for an attractive show play.

Race 7

10:27 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

A maiden claiming field of first-time winners going 1 1/16 miles on the dirt, with a clear ratings leader and a couple of second-tier contenders offering real exotic value.

win2Toast the GhostML 7/2

Toast the Ghost leads all comers with an 86.35 TrackWiz rating and goes at a very reasonable 7/2 morning line — that's a good price for the top-rated horse in a maiden field. Fraser Aebly gets the mount for Gail Cox, and an average speed figure of 53 is competitive for this condition and distance. Going long at 1 1/16 miles on the dirt can expose maiden types, but the ratings advantage here is significant enough to trust.

place4Don't Say a WordML 6/1

Don't Say a Word at 6/1 is a genuine sneaky play with a 76.76 TrackWiz rating, second-best in the field. Christoff Douglas rides for Nicholas Nosowenko in a spot where the morning line seems to underestimate this horse's potential. The slight concern is a 51 average speed figure, which is at the lower end of the competitive tier — but in a maiden race where consistency matters more than raw speed, the ratings profile earns a place-bet consideration.

show5Danish CookieML 8/1

Danish Cookie at 8/1 rounds out the top three with a 70.84 TrackWiz rating and a 53 average speed figure that matches the better horses in this field. Leo Salles rides for Frank Huarte, and Huarte has a knack for placing maiden horses in winnable spots. The 8/1 morning line is generous for a horse with this profile, and Danish Cookie makes strong sense as a show play or trifecta closer.

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Bottom line: Woodbine gives us a clean, weather-friendly card today with legitimate plays on both surfaces. Signature Sir is our marquee free-race selection, Chervonaruta is the turf play to watch in Race 2, and the premium card rounds out with several pace-dependent spots that reward the prepared bettor. Get the full-card analysis, exotic ticket breakdowns, and pace projections with a TrackWiz Premium subscription — details at /pricing. Good luck out there.

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