Woodbine Picks & Predictions — July 23, 2026

Sympatico is our place pick at 6/1, ranking second in the field on TrackWiz ratings at 59.35 despite an average speed figure that ticks one point below the leaders at 52. Trainer Bancroft DeSouza saddles Austin Adams — both are workmanlike Woodbine regulars who hit at a decent clip in the maiden claiming ranks. The 6/1 morning line makes this a genuine value inclusion in your exacta and trifecta combinations.

Call Me Misslucky sits just behind the top two on our model at 58.17, virtually inseparable from Sympatico on numbers alone. Trainer Kathy Patton sends out Rafael Manuel Hernandez, who is one of the busiest and most reliable riders on the Woodbine circuit. At 8/1 on the morning line, there's real overlay potential here for a horse whose raw figures are nearly identical to the second choice — worth including deep in trifectas and superfectas.

Catch the Drift is just two points behind the top on TrackWiz ratings at 85.62 and actually leads the field with the highest average speed figure at 54. Trainer Michael Mattine saddles Jeffrey Ian Alderson, and that combination has shown up ready in spot races throughout the meet. If Flying Black faces any traffic issues from the rail post, Catch the Drift at 4/1 is well positioned to pick up the pieces — a strong exacta partner.

Purrfect Girl presents an interesting profile as the third pick at 3/1 morning line — a 26% career win rate is among the best in this field, suggesting this horse knows how to close out races when conditions align. Trainer Michael Wright Jr. sends out Rafael Manuel Hernandez, and the 67.93 TrackWiz rating, while trailing the top two, is well clear of the rest. The high win percentage relative to the rating suggests a horse that may be returning to form and could outrun a 3/1 price.

Mrs. Hot Shot checks in with a 69.34 TrackWiz rating — second-best in the field and only one average speed figure point behind the leader at 53. Trainer Hannah C. Sprenger pairs with Sahin Civaci in what looks like a live claiming combination, and a 9/2 morning line gives you genuine value if you're building an exacta underneath the heavy favorite. The 10% career win rate is modest but consistent enough to trust at this level.

Naughty Destiny is our show pick at 6/1 with an average speed figure of 55 — the highest in the field — which tells you this horse has flashed raw speed even if the overall rating of 68.26 puts it third. Trainer Steven Chircop sends out Jose Luis Campos, and a 11% career win rate is workable. If the pace collapses in front, Naughty Destiny's raw early speed could produce a finish that outperforms the morning line.

Atlantic Passage rates second in our model at 63.88 with an average speed figure of 54, tied for the best in this eleven-horse field alongside just a couple others. Pietro Moran for Darwin D. Banach is a reliable local pairing, and the 4/1 morning line makes Atlantic Passage a strong exacta partner underneath Lady On the Nile. The 9% career win rate is modest but in a field this size, consistency matters.

Tabei gets the call from Ryan Munger for trainer James Bentley Begg and opens at 9/2 — a horse whose TrackWiz rating of 61.34 slots it comfortably into the third tier of this field. The average speed figure of 54 matches the top horses in the race, suggesting more underlying ability than the 6% career win rate would indicate. In a full field on the turf, pace dynamics can get messy, and a consistent speed horse sitting mid-range in ratings is exactly the type to collect checks.

Olivia's Melody is our place pick at 6/1 morning line and rates second on the TrackWiz model at 67.30 — a significant jump in price for a horse that's clearly the second-best number in the field. Christoff Douglas handles the mount for Kerron Palmer, and while the 5% career win rate is low, the raw rating suggests performance that hasn't fully translated yet into wins. At 6/1, this is a genuine value play for exacta builders.

Shining Silver is the morning-line favorite at 5/2 but rates third in our model at 58.10 — interesting divergence that suggests the market may be overweighting connections or recent form we haven't measured as strongly. The 16% career win rate is the best in this field and demands respect; Rafael Manuel Hernandez has the experience to put a horse in the right spot in a short sprint. A show bet or trifecta inclusion at 5/2 isn't about value, it's about having a proven win-rate horse covering your bases.

Chocolatecroissant is the morning-line favorite at 8/5 and carries an 81.63 TrackWiz rating — just a tick below our win pick, which makes it a natural place inclusion even if we're siding against it on top. Rafael Manuel Hernandez rides for Kevin Attard, one of the meet's elite trainers, and the market clearly respects this combination. The proximity in ratings means Chocolatecroissant finishing second is a very real outcome, and it anchors the exacta underneath perfectly.

Chervonaruta rounds out a remarkably tight top three in this race with an 80.32 TrackWiz rating — just 2.4 points separating first from third on the model, which is essentially statistical noise. Jason Hoyte rides for Michael P. De Paulo, and a 5/2 morning line shows the market considers this a major player. Trifecta players should feel comfortable using all three of these horses across the top in various combinations — the model says they're nearly interchangeable in quality.