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Woodbine Picks & Predictions — July 16, 2026

July 16, 20268 racesAll Woodbine picks

This card ran on July 16, 2026.

Best bets at Woodbine, July 16, 2026

Race 14Albie FirstML 9/53:10 PM EDT

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Last 30 days at Woodbine: our top pick won 7 of 24 races (29%) and finished in the money in 10.

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It's a warm Thursday afternoon at Woodbine — partly cloudy skies and a comfortable 80°F — and the track is serving up an eight-race card that has something for every kind of bettor. From maiden claimers on the dirt to a five-furlong turf sprint, the variety keeps things interesting all the way through the late pick-4 sequence.

The dirt looks like it should be playing fair under these conditions, which matters when you're trying to project pace scenarios in the route races. Keep an eye on how the early speed is faring in the openers — if front-runners are holding, that's a real edge to carry into your later-race handicapping.

Three of today's eight races are available free to all TrackWiz readers, including our top plays in the early maiden and claiming events. Premium subscribers get the full treatment on the back half of the card, where the real wagering opportunities start stacking up.

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Race 1

3:10 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

A maiden claimer going a mile and a sixteenth on dirt, and the morning line tells the story — two horses are drawing most of the action while the rest of the field trails well off the pace in the ratings.

win4Albie FirstML 9/5

Albie First tops our TrackWiz ratings at 58.67 in this field and comes in as the morning-line second choice at 9/5, which suggests the market and our model are aligned. Ryan Munger gets the call for trainer Elizabeth R. Elder, and the 1 1/16-mile distance on dirt looks like a setup that rewards a horse with this rating edge. In a maiden field where no one has broken their duck yet, having the highest composite score by a meaningful margin is exactly the kind of edge you want.

place2Precious KidML 4/1

Precious Kid sits second in our ratings at 55.00 and comes in at a more attractive morning-line price of 4/1. Trainer Krista Cole sends out this runner with the second-best average speed figure in the field at 53, and in a wide-open maiden event, that combination of rating and price makes for solid place-ticket value. If Albie First gets tested early, Precious Kid has the profile to capitalize on any late fade.

show6Lady DayrellsML 6/5

Lady Dayrells actually posts the top average speed figure in this field at 54 — better than the morning-line favorite — which is an interesting wrinkle. She's the 6/5 chalk for trainer L. Rodney Barrow, making her a solid show anchor in exotics, and that speed number suggests she could be competitive for the top spot too. Don't sleep on her in the exacta box at short odds if you're playing the race deep.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

3:42 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Two horses dominate the TrackWiz ratings at the top by a wide margin, setting up what could be a decisive duel between the 8/5 and 9/5 morning-line co-favorites — with the rest of the field well in their wake.

win3Butterfly BillieML 8/5

Butterfly Billie leads all TrackWiz ratings in this race at a strong 85.48 and goes postward as the 8/5 morning-line choice for trainer Sylvain Pion with Rafael Manuel Hernandez up. Over 6.5 furlongs on dirt, that kind of rating separation from the bulk of the field is meaningful — only Crumlin Fashion comes close. In a maiden claiming sprint, the horse with the top composite score has a clear edge, and the market agrees.

place2Crumlin FashionML 9/5

Crumlin Fashion at 9/5 for trainer Donald C. MacRae is the natural place play here, posting a 80.32 TrackWiz rating that is the second-best in the field by a comfortable margin. Edgar Zenteno gets the mount and the horse shares the same average speed figure as two other rivals at 54, meaning the rating edge likely reflects form cycle and other class factors. At near even-money for place, there's not a ton of value, but as a safety net under Butterfly Billie in a single exacta, this is a sensible construction.

show6Can't Argue ThatML 7/2

Can't Argue That checks in at 55.83 in our ratings — a meaningful step below the top two — but what stands out is the best average speed figure in this field at 55, the only horse to hit that number. Trainer Allen Desruisseaux sends this runner out at 7/2 on the morning line, and if the two co-favorites engage in a duel and tire each other out, a closer with that kind of raw speed could sweep up the pieces. Worth including as a show horse and in the trifecta.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Our three free races cover the first three on the card — all on the dirt, all giving us a chance to calibrate the bias before the turf action kicks in. Albie First draws our attention in the opener despite a modest rating; in maiden claiming routes, pace setup often matters more than raw numbers, and we like the setup here. Butterfly Billie carries an 85.48 TrackWiz rating into Race 2 at 8/5 on the morning line — that kind of score in a maiden claimer over 6½ furlongs suggests a horse who should be tough to beat if she runs back to her best effort. Then Moventothecountry tops the card's free races in Race 3, posting an 88.54 rating in a one-turn mile-plus claiming event — that's a number that commands respect at 2/1.

If the dirt is playing true to form through those first three, watch for closers who are getting good trips. A consistent pace bias early gives us real conviction heading into the premium portion of the card.

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Race 3

4:15 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

This claiming route has a clear TrackWiz standout, but the morning line has a 2/1 shot under double the price of the 10/1 third-place finisher in our ratings — creating a setup where value and top pick align neatly at the top.

win5MoventothecountryML 2/1

Moventothecountry is the standout in this field, posting a TrackWiz rating of 88.54 — more than 16 points clear of the next-best horse. Trainer Michael Mattine sends this runner out at 2/1 with Sahin Civaci in the irons, and the 13% career win rate in a claiming field is respectable. At 1 1/16 miles on dirt, the rating edge is the kind that translates to real race outcomes, and our model is firmly on board.

place1Amazin QueenML 5/2

Amazin Queen at 5/2 is the morning-line favorite and posts a solid 71.83 TrackWiz rating to go with a 15% career win percentage — the best in this field. Christoff Douglas rides for trainer William Tharrenos, and this horse's record suggests a runner that consistently competes at this level. As the place pick behind our top-rated horse, she makes sense as the primary exacta partner.

show2Beautiful SkyML 10/1

Beautiful Sky at 10/1 is a sneaky inclusion here — the morning line grossly undervalues the 65.62 TrackWiz rating, which ranks third in this field. Trainer Dale A. Powell has this runner posting an 11% career win rate, and the price creates genuine overlay potential in the trifecta. If you're building a full ticket, Beautiful Sky at that number is worth including as a show leg and potentially wider.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 4

4:48 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 fur · Turf

A five-furlong turf sprint for claimers with an interesting dynamic — the morning-line favorite at 2/1 is not our top-rated horse, and a longshot from the same barn as the top pick adds a wrinkle to the exotics.

win3Rock Hard RoseML 9/5

Rock Hard Rose is our top-rated runner at 88.83 and goes off at 9/5 for trainer Steven Chircop with Fraser Aebly aboard. The 21% career win rate is respectable for a claiming turf sprinter, and the average speed figure of 55 ties with two other rivals, suggesting the rating edge comes from form and consistency. In a five-furlong turf sprint, early speed matters, and our model sees this as the clear top selection.

place6Quiet MaddelenaML 12/1

Quiet Maddelena is a genuine value angle here — the 12/1 morning line drastically underestimates a horse with a 34% career win rate, the highest in the field by a significant margin. Trainer Steven Chircop also saddles the top pick, which means the barn is in form, and Da-Sean Zavier Gaskin takes the mount. The 58.96 TrackWiz rating isn't the highest, but a horse winning at a 34% clip over a career deserves far more respect than 12/1 at the windows.

show4Empty GestureML 3/1

Empty Gesture checks in at a 51.31 TrackWiz rating and posts the highest average speed figure in the field at 56 — the only horse to hit that number across the entire race. Juan Crawford rides for trainer Sharon Ceccato at 3/1 on the morning line, and in a short five-furlong turf sprint where raw speed can be decisive, that figure is worth noting. As a show play and a trifecta piece, Empty Gesture gives you coverage on the speed side of the pace scenario.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 5

5:21 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Five and a half furlongs on dirt with a surprising dynamic — the morning-line favorite at 2/1 isn't our top-rated horse, and the value play at 4/1 leads our model, setting up an interesting overlay situation.

win3Jinx MeML 4/1

Jinx Me tops the TrackWiz ratings at 85.62 and is listed at 4/1 on the morning line — a clear overlay relative to what the ratings suggest. Daisuke Fukumoto rides for trainer Jason Marrocco, and the 11% career win rate is modest but the model sees something the oddsmakers may be underweighting. In a seven-horse claiming sprint, a horse with this kind of rating gap over much of the field at a price above 3/1 is exactly the kind of spot TrackWiz targets.

place4Where's SamnbaileyML 5/2

Where's Samnbailey at 5/2 is the morning-line second choice with a 76.92 TrackWiz rating — second-best in the field. Jason Hoyte teams up with trainer Evette Chartrand-Hoek, and the horse's 7% career win rate in this sprint context is offset by solid composite scores. As the place leg behind Jinx Me, the 5/2 price makes for a reasonable exacta investment.

show7Midnite SadieML 2/1

Midnite Sadie is the 2/1 morning-line favorite and brings a legitimate 25% career win rate — by far the best in this field — which explains why the market is backing her heavily. Austin Adams rides for trainer William Tharrenos, and at an average speed figure of 54, she's in the mix on raw numbers. Our model has her third, but a horse winning one in four career starts deserves respect as a show anchor, and she's a real threat to spoil the upset if Jinx Me doesn't fire.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 6

5:55 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Six and a half furlongs on dirt with a clear TrackWiz overlay — the top-rated horse comes in at 8/1 despite the model giving him the edge over the morning-line favorite, making this one of the more interesting value spots on the card.

win6Indy OneML 8/1

Indy One leads the TrackWiz ratings at 79.79 and is listed at 8/1 — that's a significant overlay in a field where the model sees him on top. Romero Ramsay Maragh gets the call for trainer Sylvain Pion, and a 28% career win rate is the second-highest in this field, behind only Ninja Star's 20% — actually, the highest among the realistic contenders. In a 6.5-furlong dirt sprint with a competitive pace scenario, a horse with this rating and that win percentage at a generous price is a strong value play.

place5Arabian PrinceML 2/1

Arabian Prince at 2/1 is the morning-line co-favorite with a 76.67 TrackWiz rating — closely packed with our win pick. Keveh Nicholls rides for trainer Audrey Cheung, and while the 4% career win rate is the lowest among the top-rated horses, the model still sees this runner as the second-best in the field. At 2/1, the price is short, but as the exacta partner to Indy One, the combination could produce a solid overlay payout.

show1Indian PeakML 5/2

Indian Peak at 5/2 brings a 74.96 TrackWiz rating and a 16% career win rate to this sprint, giving him third in our rankings with a solid overall profile. Jose Luis Campos rides for Robert P. Tiller, a trainer who knows how to spot horses in spots they can win. The average speed figure of 55 ties with several rivals, keeping the pace scenario honest and giving a closer like Indian Peak a reasonable look to fill the trifecta.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 7

6:27 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A maiden special weight sprint at five and a half furlongs, and with several first-time starters or horses without recorded speed figures, this is one of the more unpredictable races on the card — making the top two in our ratings even more important as anchors.

win5Pepper BrooksML 8/5

Pepper Brooks heads our TrackWiz ratings at 59.00 and comes in at 8/5 on the morning line for the always-dangerous Robert P. Tiller barn, with Rafael Manuel Hernandez taking the mount. No average speed figure is on file for this one, which likely means a debut runner, and in maiden special weight company, trainer reputation and model scores carry extra weight when past performance data is limited. Tiller's operation consistently produces ready-to-run first-timers, and the market's confidence at 8/5 aligns with our top rating.

place6Starship SaluteML 2/1

Starship Salute sits just a hair below at 58.33 in our ratings and is listed at 2/1 with Sahin Civaci aboard for trainer Michael P. De Paulo. Like the top pick, no speed figure is on file, so this is a projection race — but the model's rating and morning-line price suggest a horse that's impressed in the mornings. The De Paulo-Civaci combination at Woodbine is worth noting, and as the place leg in an unpredictable maiden sprint, this runner offers strong coverage.

show3Auntie's BambinoML 7/2

Auntie's Bambino at 7/2 does have an average speed figure on record at 53, which immediately gives trainer Louis M. Capi's runner a form edge over some of the unknown quantities in this field. Xarel Forde rides, and the 51.10 TrackWiz rating slots comfortably third behind the top two. In a race with multiple first-timers, a horse that has already been on the track and posted a serviceable figure is a reliable show anchor in your trifecta.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 8

6:57 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A six-furlong dirt claimer with three horses bunched tightly at the top of our ratings between 84 and 89 — this is a race where the top pick is clear but the underneath is genuinely competitive, making the exacta and trifecta the plays.

win3Napa SpiritML 2/1

Napa Spirit leads the field at 88.54 in our TrackWiz ratings and comes in at 2/1 on the morning line for the respected Robert P. Tiller barn, with Xarel Forde in the irons. A 30% career win rate is the highest of any horse in this race by a meaningful margin — that kind of sustained winning at this class level tells you this horse competes hard and converts. Six furlongs on dirt is a straightforward test, and our model combined with that career percentage makes this a confident top selection.

place6Always a WayML 4/1

Always a Way at 4/1 posts an 85.62 TrackWiz rating — essentially deadlocked with Harper City — and brings trainer Sharon Ceccato and jockey Juan Crawford to the gate. The 11% career win rate is modest, but in a field this competitive, place money is what you're hunting at 4/1, and the rating says this horse belongs right in the mix. The price makes for a clean overlay in the exacta behind Napa Spirit.

show8Harper CityML 5/2

Harper City at 5/2 sits at 84.60 in our ratings — the third horse in this tight trio — and brings a 13% career win rate for trainer Allen Desruisseaux with Pietro Moran up. The morning-line price of 5/2 is the most compressed of the three top-rated runners, suggesting the market sees the same clustering our model does. As a trifecta piece and show bet, Harper City at that price is solid, and don't rule out a top-two finish if the pace sets up for a closing run.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

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Today's Woodbine card shapes up as a genuine all-day handicapping opportunity. Our top free plays — Albie First, Butterfly Billie, and Moventothecountry — anchor the early going, while the premium back half offers value angles and exotic structure that subscribers won't want to miss. Check your TrackWiz subscription and get your tickets in early — first post is coming fast.

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