Daily Picks

Woodbine Picks & Predictions — May 24, 2026

Sunday, May 24, 202610 racesWoodbine

We're heading to Woodbine on a cool, cloudy Sunday — 58°F and overcast skies greeting a full 10-race card run entirely on the dirt. The kind of spring afternoon where horses that love a firm, consistent surface get every opportunity to show out, and pace scenarios tend to play true.

Ten races, all on the dirt, spanning distances from a quick 5½ furlongs all the way out to 1 1/16 miles. You've got claiming battles, maiden fields trying to break their duck, and a couple of optional claiming spots where class separators can really come into play. There's plenty to dig into here.

TrackWiz analysis covers the full card — three races are open to everyone, and our seven premium breakdowns go deep on pace projections, exotic angles, and multi-race sequences. Let's get into it.

Best Bets

Race 1

5:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

A clear top-rated standout looms over this claiming route, but the 5/2 morning-line second choice and a solid 7/2 shot make this more than a one-horse show for exotic players.

win6Louis the ChampML EVN

Louis the Champ is the class of this field by our TrackWiz rating — a 90.0 puts him well clear of the competition, and the morning line favorite tag at even money reflects what the market already knows. He shares an average speed figure of 54 with Conn Smythe, but his overall profile is simply stronger on every dimension our model weighs. Pietro Moran gets the call and is a capable pilot who can steer a favorite home when the horse is this far ahead on merit. At even money the price is modest, but this looks like the safest win bet on the early card.

place4Conn SmytheML 5/2

Conn Smythe checks in with a TrackWiz rating of 79.63 — second-best in the field — and posts the joint-highest average speed figure (54) alongside the favorite. Trained by William Tharrenos, who also saddles You're So Lucky in the same race, Conn Smythe is clearly the barn's main hope for a piece of the purse here. At 5/2, he's a reasonable place ticket to pair alongside the top choice in exactas.

show2Sol de VeranoML 7/2

Sol de Verano (rating 72.04) sits third on our rankings and comes in at a fair 7/2 morning line, giving him some exotic value as a show play or exotics underneath. His average speed figure of 52 lags slightly behind the top two, but he's in the conversation and Luis Reyes provides a competent hand. Use him in trifecta combos if you're trying to catch some upside on the payout.

Race 2

5:51 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

This maiden claimer over six furlongs is a wide-open sprint between first-timers and lightly-raced youngsters, with our top pick flying well under the radar at morning-line 6/1 despite leading all comers in TrackWiz ratings.

win8Switchin' to GlideML 6/1

Switchin' to Glide tops our TrackWiz ratings in this field at 82.71 — comfortably ahead of the 3/1 morning-line second choice — yet the market has her at 6/1, which represents genuine value. Trainer Robert P. Tiller is a respected conditioner and Sofia Vives gets the mount, a pairing worth noting. Her average speed figure of 53 matches the field's competitive mid-range, but it's the overall rating that sets her apart. When a horse leads the field by this margin on our model but isn't the favorite, that's a spot TrackWiz analysts flag as a prime value opportunity.

place5Big LewML 3/1

Big Lew owns the second-highest rating in the race at 72.15 and comes in as the 3/1 second choice, suggesting the market is at least partially aligned here. Devon Gittens sends him out with Romero Ramsay Maragh, a jockey who knows this track well. An average speed figure of 53 is workmanlike and enough to suggest he'll be in the mix late in a short six-furlong dash.

show2Halcon NegroML 8/1

Halcon Negro is the show play at 8/1, carrying a 62.73 rating that ranks third in this field and offers some exotics value at that price. Jeffrey Ian Alderson gets the ride, and the 53 average speed figure gives him a legitimate chance to fill out the trifecta. In wide-open maiden fields, a third horse with a solid underlying rating at a double-digit morning line is exactly the type of ticket-builder we look for.

Race 3

6:24 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A William Tharrenos one-two punch dominates the ratings in this Starter Optional Claimer at 5½ furlongs, with his top runner at 7/2 and a stablemate lurking at 9/2 — the barn is loaded for bear.

win5LazioML 7/2

Lazio leads the field with a TrackWiz rating of 86.35 and lands at a fair 7/2 morning line in what should be a pace-friendly sprint. Emma-Jayne Wilson is one of Woodbine's most accomplished riders and her partnership with trainer William Tharrenos is a combination worth respecting. A 20% career win rate and a 56 average speed figure — the joint-best in the field — complete a profile that checks every box. The 5½-furlong trip over dirt looks tailor-made for a horse with this kind of speed profile.

place1EndrickML 9/2

Stablemate Endrick adds further depth to the Tharrenos barn here, carrying an 81.48 rating and a career win percentage of 26% — best in this race. Sofia Vives rides and the 55 average speed figure keeps him within striking distance. At 9/2, there's real place value here, especially if the barn has a pace plan that sets Lazio up from the front and lets Endrick close into a contested pace.

show4Fifty B M GML 6/1

Fifty B M G comes in at 6/1 with a 67.9 rating and a 17% career win rate that makes him respectable without being flashy. Eswan Flores rides for trainer Audrey Cheung, and the 56 average speed figure — tied for best in the field — suggests he can go with the pace and hang around for a piece. He's the natural trifecta fill here for anyone playing the top two.

The first three races give us a nice cross-section of today's card. Louis the Champ opens the book at even money in a 1 1/16-mile dirt claimer — when the morning line installer lands on even money, it usually means something, and our rating of 90 backs up the hype. In Race 2, Switchin' to Glide jumps out at 6/1 in a maiden claiming sprint — that's the kind of overlay in an unpredictable field that gets our attention. Then Lazio draws our top nod in the Starter Optional Claiming at 5½ furlongs, sitting at 7/2 on the morning line with an 86-plus TrackWiz rating.

On a consistent dirt surface like today's, pace shape matters. All three of these early-card picks carry pace profiles that suit the expected flow — keep that in mind as you structure your tickets through the afternoon.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:54 PM EDT

Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

A competitive seven-furlong dirt claiming race where the TrackWiz top pick sits just off the morning-line favorite, setting up a potential pace battle that could benefit closers further down the order.

win3Arya's QuestML 7/2

Arya's Quest tops our ratings at 86.35 and lands at 7/2 — value relative to her profile when you consider the 14% career win rate and a 55 average speed figure that ties for best in the field. Jason Hoyte rides for Michael P. De Paulo, a trainer who knows how to spot spots, and this looks like a race where the class edge is real. In a seven-furlong dirt sprint, a horse with the speed figure advantage and a strong overall rating is exactly the type to anchor your tickets.

place5Quinns Silent RoarML 5/2

Quinns Silent Roar is the morning-line favorite at 5/2 with an 81.41 rating, and Keveh Nicholls is a capable pilot who can navigate a pace scenario well. The 11% career win rate is modest but this horse appears to be aimed at a race that fits, and trainer James Bentley Begg doesn't put horses where they don't belong. If the pace gets hot early, Quinns Silent Roar could be ideally placed to come calling in the stretch.

show6Got a ComplexML 3/1

Got a Complex rates third in this field at 74.92 and carries the best career win percentage in the race at 16%, which speaks to a horse that knows how to finish. Jodeien Anderson rides for Debra E. Rombis, and the 55 average speed figure matches the top of the class here. At 3/1, she won't return much in the show pool, but for trifecta and exacta construction she's a necessary inclusion.

Race 5

7:25 PM EDT

Optional Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

An intriguing optional claimer at 1 1/16 miles where a heavy morning-line favorite carries the highest TrackWiz rating but faces two sneaky-live rivals that offer exotic upside at much longer prices.

win5ImyourmedicinemanML 6/5

Imyourmedicineman is the horse to beat — a 89.71 TrackWiz rating is dominant in this field, and the 25% career win rate backs it up with real-world results. Jose Luis Campos gets the mount for trainer Harold Ladouceur, who places horses shrewdly. At 6/5, the price is short, but when a horse leads the field this convincingly on our model in an optional claimer, you take the value for what it is and put him in every ticket.

place4Somekinda MischiefML 6/1

Somekinda Mischief rates second in the field at 81.04 and comes to this 1 1/16-mile dirt route posting a 55 average speed figure — best among the supporting cast. Trainer Preston Ferris sends her out with Fraser Aebly, and at 6/1 morning line, this is a legit overlay on the place ticket. The class of optional claimers rewards horses who show up ready, and the profile here says she can go two-three in a field where the favorite takes all the money.

show3Paradise PerfectML 8/1

Paradise Perfect at 8/1 is the value play in the exotics here — a 78.12 rating ranks third in the field, and a Romero Ramsay Maragh–Krista Cole combination gives her professional handling. The 5% career win rate might look pedestrian, but the overall rating says she's capable on her best day. Use her underneath in exactas and trifectas if you want to chase some payout upside.

Race 6

7:56 PM EDT

Maiden Optional Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

A deep maiden optional claiming route where the morning-line favorites underwhelm on our ratings model, opening the door for a 6/1 shot with the top TrackWiz score to steal the show.

win5Maker's FlatterML 6/1

Maker's Flatter leads every horse in this nine-runner maiden field with a rating of 82.71, yet the morning line has her at 6/1 — a textbook overlay situation our TrackWiz model loves to flag. Eswan Flores rides for trainer Michael P. De Paulo, a combination with the experience to handle a longer 1 1/16-mile maiden route on dirt. The 52 average speed figure is consistent, and in a field where no horse has won before, the horse with the highest rating often has the most upside. Circle this as a value win play.

place4Auntie's BambinoML 4/1

Auntie's Bambino checks in with a 66.34 rating — second in the field — and brings a 53 average speed figure that matches the competitive mid-range. Chad Lee rides for Louis M. Capi, and the 4/1 morning line reflects some market respect without making her a lock. In a wide-open maiden race at a route distance, she profiles as a horse who can grind her way to a placing without needing to dominate.

show8Keynote SpeakerML 3/1

Keynote Speaker at 3/1 is the morning-line second choice and brings a 56.67 rating along with a 53 average speed figure that's among the better numbers in a somewhat modest field. Pietro Moran is one of the sharper riders on the grounds and trainer Kevin Attard has a strong record with maiden horses at Woodbine. He's the natural show safety valve here if you're structuring a trifecta.

Race 7

8:28 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

A Maiden Special Weight route where the market has latched onto a short-priced favorite, but our TrackWiz ratings tell a very different story — the real standout in this field is being spotted at triple the odds.

win6Lover Boy MoML 3/1

Lover Boy Mo is our top-rated horse in this race at 87.08 — nearly 28 points ahead of the morning-line favorite Willful Warrior — yet the morning line has him sitting at 3/1. Christoff Douglas gets the call for trainer Harold Ladouceur, who we've seen place horses smartly throughout this card. The 54 average speed figure is tied for best in the field, and in a Maiden Special Weight at 1 1/16 miles, a horse who leads our model by this margin at a comfortable price is a strong value play. Back him with confidence.

place7Willful WarriorML 6/5

Willful Warrior draws plenty of market attention at 6/5 morning line, and trainer Mark E. Casse is as accomplished as it gets at Woodbine — his MSW runners typically show up fit and ready. Pietro Moran rides, a top-tier pairing, and the 54 average speed figure is consistent with the top of the field. Even if he's overshadowed on our ratings, the barn and jockey combination justify keeping him in your place tickets.

show4Niigon's LawML 4/1

Niigon's Law at 4/1 earns a 55.38 rating that ranks third in this field — a solid score for a maiden that positions her well for exotics play. Emma-Jayne Wilson rides for trainer Rachel Halden, a connection that shows up ready at Woodbine. The 52 average speed figure is modest but enough to suggest she can hang around for a piece if the top two set up the pace for a closer.

Race 8

9:00 PM EDT

Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

A sharp seven-furlong claiming sprint where the TrackWiz top pick comes in posting a strong win percentage and solid ratings, but a 10/1 shot with an impressive speed edge lurks as the primary upset candidate.

win1This Dude a BreezeML 7/2

This Dude a Breeze is our top-rated horse in Race 8 at 85.03, backed by an eye-catching 26% career win rate that leads all starters in this field. Rafael Manuel Hernandez takes the mount for trainer Sarah Ritchie, and the 7/2 morning line offers fair value for a horse the model likes this much. The 52 average speed figure is slightly behind a couple of rivals on raw numbers, but the combination of a high rating and an elite win rate suggests a horse who competes fiercely when the conditions are right.

place4El CoheteML 9/2

El Cohete rates second in the field at 78.94 with a 53 average speed figure and a 15% career win rate that shows he can close deals. Luis Contreras rides for Michael P. De Paulo — a trainer who has entries throughout this card and clearly knows the conditions at Woodbine. At 9/2, El Cohete is the natural place companion to the top pick and makes for a comfortable exacta key underneath.

show6Uncaptured MomentML 10/1

Uncaptured Moment is the value show play at 10/1 morning line, carrying a 76.88 rating that ranks third in this field — and his 55 average speed figure is the best among any starter in Race 8. Fraser Aebly rides for Ryan A. Jones, and when a horse posts the highest speed figure in a claiming sprint while sitting at double digits on the morning line, our model treats that as a pace-scenario wild card. Tuck him in at the bottom of trifecta tickets.

Race 9

9:30 PM EDT

Optional Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

Ciunas looks like the class of this optional claiming sprint and brings an elite TrackWiz rating at a manageable price, but a lively place contender at 5/2 and a 15/1 longshot with a strong win rate make the exotics worth building carefully.

win7CiunasML 2/1

Ciunas commands this field with an 88.54 TrackWiz rating and an extraordinary 40% career win rate — the highest win percentage of any starter across the entire Woodbine card today. Pietro Moran gets the call for trainer Rachel Halden, and at 2/1 morning line the market agrees this is the horse to beat. The 54 average speed figure is competitive, but it's that win rate that truly stands out — horses who win 40% of their races aren't here by accident, they're here to add another tally.

place1Paynes SpiritML 5/2

Paynes Spirit profiles as the main danger at 5/2, bringing a 79.6 rating and a 22% career win rate that makes her a legitimate contender rather than a token threat. Emma-Jayne Wilson rides for trainer Julia Carey, a pairing with the tactical savvy to navigate a seven-furlong pace scenario. The 55 average speed figure is the joint-best in this race, and if Ciunas has any trouble — or the pace scenario doesn't set up perfectly — Paynes Spirit is right there to capitalize.

show2ChambersML 15/1

Chambers at 15/1 is the longshot show play here, rated 64.21 with a 25% career win rate and a 55 average speed figure that matches the top tier. Prayven Badrie rides for Harold Ladouceur — the same trainer who has Ciunas's stablemate and has been active and sharp throughout this card. A horse posting a 25% win rate who is priced at 15/1 is worth a look in any exotic structure; the market may simply be underestimating the stable's depth today.

Race 10

10:00 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 7 fur · Dirt

A wide-open twelve-horse Maiden Special Weight sprint to close the card, where our TrackWiz model breaks from the morning-line consensus and points squarely at an 8/1 overlay as the horse to beat.

win11ApeldoornML 8/1

Apeldoorn leads our ratings in this twelve-horse MSW at 79.79 despite being posted at 8/1 on the morning line — that gap between market price and model score is exactly the kind of overlay TrackWiz analysis is built to find. Keveh Nicholls rides for trainer Stuart C. Simon, a capable combination to navigate a full field. The 52 average speed figure is workmanlike but consistent, and in a wide-open maiden sprint where no horse has a career win, the advantage goes to the horse whose overall profile is most polished. This is the value play of the final race.

place7El CapoML 7/2

El Capo is rated 76.60 and comes in as the 7/2 morning-line second choice, posting a 53 average speed figure that is competitive in this field. Pietro Moran gets the mount for trainer Preston Ferris — a jockey–trainer combo that has shown up multiple times today, indicating live horses throughout. He's a natural place ticket alongside our top pick and an anchoring piece in exactas.

show4Will WinML 4/1

Will Win at 4/1 brings a 76.41 rating that's just a tick below El Capo and a 55 average speed figure that is the best of any horse among our top three picks in this race. Fraser Aebly rides for the powerful Mark E. Casse stable — the same barn that sent out Willful Warrior earlier in the card — and Casse's maiden runners at Woodbine routinely show up fit and capable. The name might be on-the-nose, but the numbers back up the hype in trifecta construction.

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Bottom line: Louis the Champ headlines the free card and looks like the most solid single on the board. Switchin' to Glide is the value swing in Race 2. Premium subscribers should have eyes on Ciunas and Lover Boy Mo as the afternoon deepens. Ten races, all dirt, with a consistent surface — good conditions to trust your homework. Good luck out there.

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