Unlock the other 5 races on today's card, plus AI ratings on every runner and SmartBet ticket construction.

The winner is in our top 4 picks 75% of the time, across 17 tracks.

Daily Picks

Will Rogers Picks & Predictions — October 19, 2026

October 19, 20268 racesAll Will Rogers picks

It's a crisp October Monday at Will Rogers Downs in Claremore, Oklahoma — partly cloudy skies, 64°F, and conditions that look tailor-made for fast times on the dirt. Eight races are on the card today, ranging from 330-yard sprints to the longest test of the afternoon at 870 yards, so you're getting a real cross-section of Quarter Horse racing.

The headliner is Race 7, a Stakes event going 440 yards — the kind of race that draws the barn's best and gives you a legitimate reason to build a ticket around. But don't sleep on the undercard. Between a pair of Maiden races, multiple Allowance spots, and a Claiming event, there are angles all over this card if you know where to look.

Best Bets

Race 1

5:00 PM EDT

Allowance · 350 yd · Dirt

A wide-open 350-yard opener with three perfect career records in the mix, but TrackWiz ratings tell a clear story — one horse grades well above the rest of this field.

win9Bf ValentinoML 3/1

Bf Valentino earns the top TrackWiz rating in this field at 87.08, a significant gap above the next-best contender. Roman Cruz gets the call in the irons, and trainer Michael Moss has this horse pointing at the right spot. At 3/1 on the morning line, there's genuine value here for a horse the numbers say should be favored — back him with confidence.

place8First Speeding BulletML 8/1

First Speeding Bullet checks in with a solid 60.77 rating and draws the 8 post for trainer Jesus Ruben Ruiz. The 8/1 morning line makes him an attractive exotics piece — if Bf Valentino does his thing up front, Bullet has the profile to be filling out exactas at a price.

show1Hott MemoriesML 2/1

Hott Memories sports a 100% career win rate and a 58.33 TrackWiz rating, good enough for third-best in the field. Trainer Jed Vane has this one ready, and at 2/1 she's the public's second choice — she's a safe show anchor and a key player in any trifecta combination.

Race 2

5:28 PM EDT

Allowance · 870 yd · Dirt

Three horses are clustered near the top of the TrackWiz ratings in this 870-yard allowance, setting up a compelling multi-horse battle at a distance that rewards class and stamina.

win5Fancy Mountain ManML 3/1

Fancy Mountain Man paces the field with an 87.08 TrackWiz rating — easily the best number in this 870-yard allowance test. Roman Cruz, who gets plenty of good horses at this meet, settles into the saddle for trainer Stacey Capps. The 3/1 morning line is fair, but don't be surprised if he opens at shorter — the numbers say he's the one to beat.

place3Lightning GalML 4/1

Lightning Gal rates just behind the top pick at 77.10 and goes for trainer Jayce Carlson with Gonzalo Gutierrez up. She's drawn the 3 post in a seven-horse field, which sets her up nicely to find a clean trip at the longer 870-yard route. The 4/1 price is workable in exactas with Fancy Mountain Man.

show1Destinyofthenile BcML 2/1

Destinyofthenile Bc carries a 75.28 rating into this spot — third-best overall — and gets the 2/1 morning line as co-favorite. Trainer Bryan Calloway sends this one out with Aram Martinez, and the class indicators are solid even if the 10% career win rate is modest. A reliable show anchor and trifecta key.

Race 3

5:56 PM EDT

Maiden · 330 yd · Dirt

All six runners are maiden runners at 330 yards — nobody has won before, which makes the TrackWiz ratings and trainer form the clearest handicapping tools we have today.

win6Fly N CowgirlML 3/1

Fly N Cowgirl tops the maiden field with a commanding 87.08 TrackWiz rating — the only horse in this race to crack the 70 mark, let alone 80. Trainer Robert Esqueda sends her out with Jacob Cardenas, and the 3/1 morning line is actually a bit of value given how much she outrates the competition. In a race without past-performance wins to lean on, this numerical edge matters most.

place3SwivelsML 6/1

Swivels rates second in the field at 68.19 under trainer Manuel Mojica Campos, with Giovany Estrada piloting from post 3. She's priced at 6/1 on the morning line, which could make her a solid exacta fill behind our top pick — and if Fly N Cowgirl has any issues, Swivels is the horse most likely to capitalize.

show4Relentless WineML 2/1

Relentless Wine earns a 66.84 rating — just a tick behind Swivels — and carries the morning-line favoritism at 2/1. Trainer Jason Olmstead is a familiar name at this meet and keeps this one sharp. She's the kind of horse you'd rather have onside in trifectas than be betting against.

Our free analysis covers the first three races, and it's a solid sampler of what today's card has to offer. Bf Valentino opens the day in a 350-yard Allowance and draws our top rating, posting an 87.08 on the TrackWiz model — a number that suggests a competitive effort right out of the gate. In Race 2, Fancy Mountain Man steps up to 870 yards in the day's longest Allowance, and that added distance could be the key differentiator against a field that may be more comfortable in the short stuff. Then Race 3 shifts to a Maiden event at 330 yards, where Fly N Cowgirl carries our top mark and the morning-line 3/1 price looks like fair value for a horse we like.

One theme to watch across these early races: the 64°F temperature and firm, dry conditions typically favor horses with quick early speed on this surface. All three of our free picks profile as horses that can get out of the gate cleanly — and in races measured in seconds, that first step matters enormously.

Send me tomorrow's free Will Rogers card before post time.

Free picks in your inbox each morning. No card required, unsubscribe anytime.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:24 PM EDT

Allowance · 350 yd · Dirt

This 350-yard allowance features a genuine upset alert — the top TrackWiz-rated horse is listed at 5/1 while the morning-line favorite comes in with weaker numbers, creating potential value at the windows.

win1Mr Miller CreekML 5/1

Mr Miller Creek tops the TrackWiz ratings at 84.17 despite going off at 5/1 on the morning line — a notable disconnect that suggests public money may be drifting elsewhere without cause. Trainer Juan Villa and jockey Cordarelton Benn combine on a horse whose rating outpaces both the 2/1 favorite and the 3/1 second choice. This is the kind of overlay TrackWiz analysis is built to find — play him to win.

place5Boaz DynastyML 8/1

Boaz Dynasty rates at 79.26 — second-best in the field — and has shown a 14% career win rate that is respectable for this level. Bryan Candanosa gets the mount for trainer Marco Chavez-Gutierrez, and the 8/1 morning line makes him a strong value play in exactas and trifectas. He's the type who can run into the board quietly at a big price.

show3Political SpinML 4/1

Political Spin logs a 77.74 TrackWiz rating for trainer Jason Olmstead, who saddles multiple runners at this meet and knows how to have them ready. The 4/1 price with Jhaciel Soto up is reasonable, and he profiles as a horse that finds the board even when he doesn't win — a solid show bet and exotics anchor.

Race 5

6:52 PM EDT

Maiden · 350 yd · Dirt

A maiden 350-yard sprint where the top two TrackWiz-rated horses create a clear upper tier, but at 2/1 and 4/1 respectively, the real interest is in the gap between them and the rest of this nine-horse field.

win4Kiss My TailML 2/1

Kiss My Tail leads all horses in this race with an 88.54 TrackWiz rating — the highest mark of any horse on today's entire card — and goes at just 2/1 on the morning line. Trainer Samuel Mendoza sends Ruben Castro to the saddle, and the short price is fair given the rating dominance. Even in a maiden field full of unknowns, you ride your best number — this is it.

place5Wrs Shadow DancerML 4/1

Wrs Shadow Dancer rates a strong 84.67 and is only a step behind the top pick numerically, which is reflected in her 4/1 morning line. Mario Delgado rides for trainer Samuel Valdivia, and in a race where both the 1 and 2 picks come from different barns, there's no reason to expect them to help each other — Shadow Dancer should be running her own race. She's a must-use in exactas.

show2Bye Bye MondayML 8/1

Bye Bye Monday comes in at 54.31 — a clear step below the top two but well ahead of the bottom of this field — and offers solid value at 8/1 with Cordarelton Benn up for trainer Luz Chavira. In maiden races, surprises happen, and having an 8/1 shot with a legitimate rating in your trifecta is exactly the kind of value play that pays off over time.

Race 6

7:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 330 yd · Dirt

A ten-horse 330-yard claimer where the morning-line favorite matches up with the top TrackWiz rating, but a double-digit longshot hiding near the top of the ratings board could shake up the exotic payouts.

win6The Master PainterML 2/1

The Master Painter leads the field with an 87.06 TrackWiz rating and gets the 2/1 chalk ticket from the morning-line makers. Ryder Olmstead rides for trainer Fernando Manriquez, and at a 16% career win rate in claiming company, this horse knows how to fire. The rating and the price align well — straightforward best bet in Race 6.

place10Yegua RancheraML 10/1

Yegua Ranchera rates second in the field at 76.88 and carries a 20% career win rate into this claiming sprint, yet the morning line has her at 10/1 — a number that looks generous based on the TrackWiz data. Ruben Castro rides for Samuel Mendoza, who also saddles our Race 5 top pick. If you're looking for an exacta that pays, The Master Painter over Yegua Ranchera is worth constructing.

show5Sp Cyber CityML 8/1

Sp Cyber City logs a 61.41 rating and a 14% career win rate, giving her a legitimate profile in this claiming field. Cordarelton Benn picks up the mount for trainer Joe Davis, and at 8/1 on the morning line she's a comfortable show option. She brings enough back-class to find the board in a field where several runners are rated well below her.

Race 7

7:48 PM EDT

Stakes · 440 yd · Dirt

The stakes race is the headline event of the card — a loaded 440-yard test with three horses rated above 80 and legitimate class at every turn, making this one of the toughest races to handicap all day.

win5Emerald BayML 3/1

Emerald Bay tops the stakes field with an 87.08 TrackWiz rating and brings a 37% career win rate to this spot — among the strongest win percentages in the race. Roman Cruz, one of the meet's busiest and most reliable jockeys, teams with trainer Michael Moss. The 3/1 morning line is solid value for a horse who rates clear of most of this field.

place9AmarillisML 4/1

Amarillis is compelling — a 81.75 TrackWiz rating paired with a 41% career win rate that is the second-best strike rate in the entire field. Cody Rodger Smith rides for trainer Stacey Capps, and the 4/1 price could be fair or even generous depending on how the public plays the top two. She's the exacta partner you want behind Emerald Bay.

show1Ruse Ticle KnockoutML 2/1

Ruse Ticle Knockout brings the most impressive career win rate in this field at 46% — nearly half his starts have ended in victory — and a solid 81.17 rating backing it up. Edwin Escobedo rides for trainer Marc Jungers, and the 2/1 morning line reflects genuine public confidence. He's a key show anchor and a horse to include in all your stakes exotics today.

Race 8

8:16 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 330 yd · Dirt

A ten-horse maiden claiming sprint over 330 yards where every runner is still looking for that elusive first win — form lines are thin, so TrackWiz ratings and connections carry extra weight here.

win10Hes a DaytripperML 4/1

Hes a Daytripper rates 85.62 — best in this maiden claiming field by a meaningful margin — and comes in at 4/1 on the morning line, representing solid value. Cody Rodger Smith gets the call for trainer Stacey Capps, who has multiple runners at this meet and clearly knows the conditions. In a field where nobody has won before, the biggest number usually matters most.

place8Jess Sea Me DashML 3/1

Jess Sea Me Dash rates 76.50 and draws post 8 for trainer Kash Reed with Juan Pulido in the irons. The 3/1 morning line makes her the public's second choice, and the rating supports that sentiment — she's the most logical exacta fill behind our top pick. In maiden races, the second-best rating often lands on the board.

show5Wrs Cyber SamML 10/1

Wrs Cyber Sam carries a 71.05 TrackWiz rating into this spot — third-best overall — yet the morning line has him at 10/1, which represents a notable overlay. Roman Cruz rides for trainer Samuel Gaytan Jr., and a horse with this rating going off at double digits in a maiden claimer is exactly the kind of show/trifecta value play that builds a winning day at the windows.

Premium Content

Get the Full Card Analysis

Unlock expert picks for every race, detailed speed figures, trainer angles, and our SmartBet recommendations.

View Plans Sign In

Bottom line: Will Rogers is serving up a well-rounded eight-race card on a beautiful fall afternoon, with Bf Valentino, Fancy Mountain Man, and Fly N Cowgirl as our free best bets and Emerald Bay headlining the premium slate. Conditions are as good as it gets — now it's about finding the right prices. Subscribers can access the complete analysis, pace scenarios, and exotic plays right here on TrackWiz.

← All Will Rogers picks & predictions

You're reading 3 of 8 races free