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Will Rogers Picks & Predictions — October 13, 2026

October 13, 202610 racesAll Will Rogers picks

It's a warm Tuesday afternoon at Will Rogers Downs — 87°F and partly cloudy, which means a fast, consistent dirt surface and ideal conditions for the sprinters dominating today's card. Ten races are on the slate, all on the dirt, ranging from a lightning-quick 250-yard dash to a more stamina-testing 870-yard route.

The mix of Claiming, Maiden Claiming, Allowance, and straight Maiden races gives us plenty of angles to work with — class drops to target, pace scenarios to exploit, and a handful of morning-line favorites that our ratings genuinely back up. This is a card where doing your homework pays off.

TrackWiz analysis covers all ten races today. The first three are free for every reader — no subscription required. Races 4 through 10 are part of the full premium breakdown, where we dig into pace projections, exotic plays, and multi-race sequences.

Best Bets

Race 1

5:00 PM EDT

Claiming · 250 yd · Dirt

The morning line and TrackWiz ratings don't agree here — the top-rated horse goes off at 5/2 while the morning-line favorite is actually a slightly lower-rated rival, setting up a compelling betting battle in this 250-yard opener.

win4Kj Sunday ServiceML 5/2

Kj Sunday Service earns the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 87.81 and carries the best career win percentage in the race at 16% — that's a meaningful edge in a short-field claiming sprint. Jockey Cordarelton J. Benn gets the call for trainer Waylan Melton, and at 5/2 on the morning line, the price is fair without being generous. Over 250 yards, gate speed and raw ability separate contenders fast, and Sunday Service profiles as the most complete package in this spot.

place1Cuz Sooner MagicML 3/1

Cuz Sooner Magic checks in with a TrackWiz rating of 85.46 — just a whisker behind the top selection — and comes in at 3/1 on the morning line. Trainer Jesus Ruben Ruiz sends out Roman Cruz, a solid pairing that should ensure this one breaks alertly. With the rating gap between Sunday Service and Sooner Magic being razor-thin, a placing effort looks highly probable.

show3Icy TurnpikeML 2/1

Icy Turnpike has a 71.11 TrackWiz rating and draws the 2/1 morning-line favoritism, suggesting the public expects more than our model does. That slight overlay in public confidence makes Icy Turnpike a sensible show inclusion — if the betting public is right, you're covered; if our model is right, you're still likely in the money. Trainer Matt Whitekiller and jockey Cody Rodger Smith are a reliable local combination worth respecting.

Race 2

5:28 PM EDT

Claiming · 870 yd · Dirt

Two horses dominate the TrackWiz ratings by a wide margin in this 870-yard claiming route — the rest of the field is essentially playing for third, making this look like a match race between the top two selections.

win7Pete Be RowdyML 2/1

Pete Be Rowdy tops the field with an 88.54 TrackWiz rating, and while the 6% career win percentage looks modest at first glance, our model factors in quality of competition and form cycles — not just raw win totals. At 2/1, jockey Jacob Cardenas gets the mount for trainer Gary K. Walker in what is the longest race of the evening card at 870 yards, a distance that rewards horses who can sustain pace rather than just break fast. Pete Be Rowdy profiles as exactly that kind of athlete.

place1Praying for BuxML 8/5

Praying for Bux (rating: 86.96) is the morning-line favorite at 8/5, which tells you the public is sweet on this one — and with good reason. Trainer Tony Dean Jones teams with Angel O. Ramirez, and a 12% career win percentage gives Praying for Bux a legitimate win chance of his own, though our model slots Pete Be Rowdy just ahead. Use this one confidently underneath in exactas.

show6Say Famous GoldustML 5/1

Say Famous Goldust at 5/1 is the clear third-best horse in this field per our ratings at 75.08 — a full 18-plus points clear of the fourth-ranked horse. Bryan Ernst picks up the mount for trainer Anthony Nichols, and in a race where the top two horses may hook each other late, Say Famous Goldust's ability to run through the stretch could deliver a solid show return at a decent price.

Race 3

5:53 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 250 yd · Dirt

A wide-open maiden claiming sprint at 250 yards with a 10-horse field and zero career wins among the entrants — it's a pure talent assessment, and two horses have pulled noticeably clear of the pack in our ratings.

win1Magical MayzelML 2/1

Magical Mayzel leads the field with an 85.66 TrackWiz rating and draws the morning-line favoritism at 2/1, putting our model and the oddsmakers in agreement. Jockey Gonzalo Gutierrez takes the mount for trainer Luz Chavira — notably, Chavira also saddles Super Kitty in this race, but Magical Mayzel is clearly the barn's stronger entry by the numbers. In a maiden event where no horse has broken their maiden, a top-rated horse at a fair price is exactly the kind of structured bet you want.

place6Eyesa Fancy FlingML 5/1

Eyesa Fancy Fling rates just behind the top pick at 84.17 and offers genuine value at 5/1 on the morning line. Roman Cruz rides for trainer Jesus Ruben Ruiz, a combination that has shown up consistently throughout this card. The rating gap between Eyesa Fancy Fling and the third-ranked horse (Another Rownd at 61.39) is substantial, which makes this one a strong exotics anchor for the place and exacta.

show3Another RowndML 4/1

Another Rownd at 4/1 is the clear third option in the ratings at 61.39 — a meaningful step ahead of the rest of the field. Mario Delgado has the mount for trainer Samuel E. Valdivia, and while Another Rownd won't be mistaken for a standout, the clustering of the bottom half of this field means the 4/1 morning line likely understates the gap. A show wager here fills out a nice trifecta structure with the top two picks.

The first three races on the card give us a nice cross-section of what Will Rogers is serving up today. In Race 1, Kj Sunday Service opens at 5/2 and earns an 87.81 TrackWiz rating — solid for a 250-yard Claimer. Race 2 stretches out to 870 yards, the longest race on the card, where Pete Be Rowdy lands at the top of our board with an 88.54 rating despite a short 2/1 morning line. Race 3 brings us into Maiden Claiming territory at 250 yards, and Magical Mayzel at 2/1 is the horse our numbers like best in what should be a wide-open field.

One thing worth noting across the free races: on a warm, dry afternoon like this, the dirt at Will Rogers tends to play true and fast. Speed off the gate matters enormously at these short distances, and all three of our free top picks profile as horses that can get out of the gate cleanly. That's not an accident — it's a key angle we weighted heavily in today's ratings.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:18 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 250 yd · Dirt

This maiden claiming 250-yarder features a clear top two in the ratings, but the morning line has them nicely separated in price — the top-rated horse goes at 2/1 while a legitimate second option is listed at 3/1, setting up an attractive exacta.

win9No OffenceML 2/1

No Offence draws the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 88.54 — a significant margin over the second-ranked Calender Girl at 76.73 — and the 2/1 morning line reflects that status. Cody Rodger Smith, who has been one of the busiest and most productive jockeys on this card, picks up the mount for trainer Stacey L. Capps. In short-distance maiden races, this kind of rating separation is often decisive — No Offence looks like the horse to beat.

place8Calender GirlML 3/1

Calender Girl's 76.73 rating is comfortably second-best in the field, and at 3/1 with jockey Juan Pulido aboard for trainer Kash Reed, this filly profiles as the logical place horse. The gap between Calender Girl and the third-ranked horses (Eos Tough Guy and Bluegrass Fancy, both at 62.35) adds further confidence that she'll be in the frame at the wire.

show1Eos Tough GuyML 6/1

Eos Tough Guy and Bluegrass Fancy share the third spot in our ratings at 62.35 each, but Eos Tough Guy gets the nod in the show slot with Angel O. Ramirez aboard for trainer Edward Ross Hardy. The 6/1 morning line offers a touch of value for a horse rated this clearly ahead of the lower half of the field, and he makes a solid inclusion for trifecta tickets.

Race 5

6:43 PM EDT

Allowance · 330 yd · Dirt

The most intriguing race on the card — an allowance sprint at 330 yards featuring a field where career win percentages tell a very different story than the morning line, and two horses are virtually dead-even at the top of our ratings.

win5BrowneyegalML 4/1

Browneyegal earns a 85.62 TrackWiz rating — the top mark in the field — and the career win percentage of 66% is jaw-dropping, easily the best among all horses in this race. Trainer Samuel Mendoza sends out Ruben Castro, and at 4/1 on the morning line, there's genuine value here on a horse with dominant career credentials. When a horse combines the top model rating with a historically elite win rate, that's the kind of convergence you look to bet.

place4BeauxreguardML 3/1

Beauxreguard rates just 0.49 points behind the top pick at 85.13 — essentially a dead heat in our model — and goes at 3/1 with Cristian R. Esqueda for trainer Edward A. Cobos. A 33% career win percentage is legitimately strong, and the morning-line price is shorter than Browneyegal's, suggesting the public might actually prefer this one. Using both horses on top of each other in exactas is a smart play in a race this close at the top.

show2Miss Dashin HocksML 15/1

Miss Dashin Hocks is our show pick at a generous 15/1 morning line, and the value angle here is real. A 28% career win percentage is strong, and trainer Joe M. Davis runs two horses in this race — suggesting the barn is comfortable with conditions. At a price that far exceeds our rating assessment of 58.82, she's the kind of horse that can turn a modest $2 show ticket into a nice return.

Race 6

7:08 PM EDT

Allowance · 300 yd · Dirt

A tight allowance sprint at 300 yards where the top three in our ratings are separated by less than 10 points — but the morning-line prices tell very different stories, creating a potential overlay situation worth exploring.

win7ArockML 2/1

Arock tops the field with an 83.34 TrackWiz rating and gets the call of Cody Rodger Smith — one of the hottest jockeys working this card today — for trainer Stacey L. Capps. The 25% career win percentage leads the entire field and is a strong indicator of a horse who converts when pointed right. At 2/1 on the morning line, Arock is a deserving favorite, and the Smith-Capps combination should ensure a professional trip.

place1First Gentry LarkML 6/1

First Gentry Lark rates just 0.63 points behind Arock at 82.71 and is available at a generous 6/1 on the morning line — that's a significant price for the second-best horse in the field per our model. Roman Cruz has the mount for trainer Samuel E. Valdivia, and while the 7% career win percentage is modest, this is a horse whose current form merits far more respect than the morning line suggests. First Gentry Lark is the value play of the race.

show3Southard LegendML 4/1

Southard Legend brings a 74.47 TrackWiz rating — clearly third in the field — and posts at 4/1 for jockey Francisco Raul Ramirez Jr. and trainer Jason L. Olmstead. The 7% career win percentage mirrors First Gentry Lark's, but Southard Legend's rating provides a comfortable cushion over the rest of the field. A solid trifecta anchor at a price that won't kill the ticket.

Race 7

7:33 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 330 yd · Dirt

A large 10-horse maiden field at 330 yards where two horses have separated themselves meaningfully from the pack — the question is which of the two top contenders gets to the wire first in what could be a sharp-looking exacta.

win8Dead Game ZoomieML 3/1

Dead Game Zoomie earns the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 87.08 and goes at 3/1 on the morning line — solid value for the top-rated horse in a maiden event. Fernando Fonseca-Soto gets the mount for trainer Haley N. Hobbs, who also saddles Six Jetz in this race. When a trainer splits runners and one has a rating nearly 32 points higher than the other, you know which horse the barn is pointing at. Dead Game Zoomie is the play.

place9Bulletproof BrielML 2/1

Bulletproof Briel (rating: 79.83) is listed at 2/1 on the morning line — actually favored over our top pick — which tells you the public respects this one a great deal. Cody Rodger Smith aboard for trainer Stacey L. Capps is a powerful combination, and while our model slots Dead Game Zoomie ahead, the margin isn't enormous. Bulletproof Briel is a very real win threat and a confident place selection.

show7Mp Classy NicML 6/1

Mp Classy Nic rates third in the field at 75.45 with Roman Cruz up for trainer Jesus Ruben Ruiz, available at 6/1 on the morning line. The rating gap between Mp Classy Nic and the fourth-ranked Six Jetz (55.76) is meaningful, suggesting three horses have separated from the pack in this maiden. Include Mp Classy Nic in trifecta tickets as the natural third option.

Race 8

7:58 PM EDT

Claiming · 300 yd · Dirt

A competitive 10-horse claiming sprint at 300 yards where three horses are tightly bunched at the top of the ratings — the winner could come from any of the top trio, but the prices suggest some intriguing value in the place and show spots.

win5Whatta PrizeML 2/1

Whatta Prize leads our ratings at 80.81 and is the 2/1 morning-line choice with Roman Cruz in the irons for trainer Samuel E. Valdivia. A 14% career win percentage is respectable in claiming company, and the combination of top rating, top jockey, and the shortest price on the board tells a consistent story. Over 300 yards, early foot is everything, and Whatta Prize should be in the thick of it from the gate.

place2Miz Lighten WranglerML 8/1

Miz Lighten Wrangler rates 79.79 — essentially tied with the top pick — and is a compelling value at 8/1 on the morning line. Jasten Pedraza rides for trainer Valerie Torres, and the 33% career win percentage is among the best in the field. If the market has underestimated this horse, the exacta with Whatta Prize on top could pay handsomely — the rating suggests the two are near-equal in ability.

show10Stephanie RosieML 3/1

Stephanie Rosie brings a 75.27 rating and a 25% career win percentage to the table, landing at 3/1 on the morning line for Cody Rodger Smith and trainer Stacey L. Capps. She's clearly the third-best horse in the field by our numbers, and the Smith-Capps combo has been firing all card. A place or show wager on Stephanie Rosie provides a sensible safety net in what could be a tight three-horse photo.

Race 9

8:23 PM EDT

Allowance · 440 yd · Dirt

The feature allowance of the evening at 440 yards — the longest race on the card — where the top-rated horse is a substantial standout in a field that drops off quickly after the first two contenders.

win7Heza PeteML 2/1

Heza Pete dominates this field with an 88.54 TrackWiz rating — the top mark on the entire 10-race card — and is correctly installed as the 2/1 morning-line choice. Cody Rodger Smith, who has been the card's marquee jockey all night, takes the mount for trainer Stacey L. Capps. At 440 yards, the longest distance on the card, pace management matters, and Heza Pete's overwhelming rating advantage suggests the talent to control the race on his terms.

place4Jr Pay the ManML 3/1

Jr Pay the Man rates second in the field at 78.58 and posts at 3/1 with Aram S. Martinez for trainer Able Aguilar. A 20% career win percentage in allowance company is legitimate, and the 10-point gap between Jr Pay the Man and the third-best horse (Naughty Cuban Cowboy at 63.10) provides a comfortable cushion in the place spot. This is the natural exacta partner with Heza Pete.

show5Naughty Cuban CowboyML 12/1

Naughty Cuban Cowboy is our show selection at 12/1, and the value case is straightforward — a 63.10 rating that ranks third in the field, available at a morning-line price that implies only a longshot chance. Angel O. Ramirez picks up the mount for trainer Edward Ross Hardy, and a 16% career win percentage shows this horse knows how to compete. At 12/1, a small show investment or trifecta inclusion offers substantial upside.

Race 10

8:48 PM EDT

Maiden · 350 yd · Dirt

The finale is a maiden sprint at 350 yards where one horse has pulled so far clear of the field in our ratings that the question isn't whether to bet it — it's whether to use it single or spread underneath.

win3Wrs TellerssintachaML 2/1

Wrs Tellerssintacha carries an 88.54 TrackWiz rating — the joint-highest on the entire card — and is appropriately listed as the 2/1 morning-line choice. Roman Cruz gets the mount for trainer Samuel E. Valdivia, a pairing that has been sharp throughout the evening. The nearest competitor, Henry Standing Bear, rates a full 22-plus points lower at 65.87 — that kind of separation in a maiden field is rarely seen, and it points strongly to a dominant performance.

place5Henry Standing BearML 4/1

Henry Standing Bear rates second in the field at 65.87 and is priced at 4/1 with Edwin G. Escobedo for trainer Joe M. Davis. While the gap between Henry Standing Bear and the top selection is wide, the gap between Henry and the third-ranked Kool Trick (56.35) provides a reasonable cushion for the place position. If Wrs Tellerssintacha dominates as expected, the exacta with Henry Standing Bear underneath should be well within reach.

show4Kool TrickML 3/1

Kool Trick draws the 3/1 morning-line price — second shortest in the field — for jockey Ryder Olmstead and trainer Jason L. Olmstead, a family combination that knows this horse well. The 56.35 rating places Kool Trick clearly third in the field, and the public's confidence reflected in the short morning line suggests this one has shown ability in training. A trifecta ticket using the top three rated horses in order is a clean, structured approach to close the card.

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Ten races, a fast and fair dirt track, and a card that rewards sharp handicapping over gut instinct. Pete Be Rowdy (R2) and Magical Mayzel (R3) headline the free best bets, while Heza Pete (R9) and Wrs Tellerssintacha (R10) are among the names to know in the premium stretch. Full card analysis, exotic plays, and pace projections are all waiting for subscribers — check out /pricing to get access before post time.

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