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Will Rogers Picks & Predictions — October 6, 2026

October 6, 202610 racesAll Will Rogers picks

It's a beautiful Tuesday at Will Rogers Downs — clear skies, 76°F, and a fast, dry dirt surface that should reward pure speed all afternoon. That's exactly what you want for a 10-race quarter horse card where every furlong counts and gate breaks can be the whole ballgame.

The card mixes Claiming, Maiden, Maiden Claiming, and Allowance company across distances ranging from a blistering 250 yards out to a relatively marathon 870 yards in Race 2. With conditions like these, speed figures should translate cleanly and our TrackWiz ratings are projecting some sharp performance lines across the board.

Three races are open to everyone today, and they include a couple of our highest-confidence reads on the card — so whether you're a free user or a premium subscriber, there's plenty of action to dig into.

Best Bets

Race 1

5:00 PM EDT

Claiming · 250 yd · Dirt

A wide-open 250-yard claiming sprint where the morning line favorite looks vulnerable and our top-rated horse is sitting at a juicy price — the kind of opener that rewards digging past the chalk.

win6Turnpike PrincessML 8/1

Turnpike Princess lands at the top of our TrackWiz ratings with an 79.79 score despite being priced at 8/1 on the morning line — that gap between rating and odds is exactly the value signal we look for in short sprints. Randy Vega gets the call, and at just 250 yards, there's no margin for error, which puts a premium on a horse with the profile our model trusts. The morning line paints her as an afterthought, but the numbers say otherwise. If she breaks clean, this field may not have the firepower to hold her off.

place2LachismosaML 4/1

Lachismosa comes in as our second-rated horse at 69.62, a meaningful step above most of this field. Jockey Osvaldo Quinonez-Lopez gets the mount for trainer Juliana Mancillas, and at 4/1, there's solid value here if she settles into the exacta slot. A 9% career win rate in a sprint field this competitive is workable — place money could come easy.

show4Clutch ShotML 5/2

Clutch Shot checks in with a 52.81 TrackWiz rating and draws the morning line favorite nod at 5/2, making him a logical show anchor in your exotics. Trainer Able Aguilar's runner has only a 5% career win rate, which tempers enthusiasm for the top spot, but at this short distance the board can get chaotic fast. In a trifecta, he's a sensible underneath play.

Race 2

5:28 PM EDT

Maiden · 870 yd · Dirt

An all-maiden field at 870 yards — a longer test than most on this card — where a shared trainer could control the outcome from top to bottom, and one runner has quietly earned the best rating in the field.

win6Rhaegals RoseML 2/1

Rhaegals Rose tops the TrackWiz ratings in this maiden field at 88.54 — the highest score in today's opener group — and draws the 2/1 morning line, suggesting the market is already on board. Trainer Tyler Cole Crawford doubles up here, running both the win pick and One Helluva Candy, which shows stable confidence at this distance. Jockey Bonifacio Quiroz gets the mount and will need to manage the pace over this longer 870-yard trip. When the top-rated horse and the morning line agree, you pay attention.

place2Fancy Mountain ManML 5/2

Fancy Mountain Man sits just behind at an 86.19 rating and is priced at 5/2 — nearly the same as our top pick, making this a legitimate 1-2 battle on paper. Trainer Stacey L. Capps sends out Francisco Calderon, and the narrow rating gap between the top two horses suggests the finish could be tight. At those odds, Fancy Mountain Man makes plenty of sense in the exacta and quinella.

show5One Helluva CandyML 3/1

One Helluva Candy rounds out our top three with a 73.7 rating and a 3/1 morning line, and the shared trainer connection with Rhaegals Rose under Tyler Cole Crawford is worth noting — Crawford clearly has confidence in this stable's runners here. Edwin G. Escobedo rides, and at a mile-and-a-half-equivalent distance for quarter horses, fitness and preparation matter. She's a natural show anchor in trifectas.

Race 3

5:53 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 250 yd · Dirt

Ten horses in a 250-yard maiden claiming dash make for a chaotic speed board — the field is large and spread thin on talent, but one runner's rating stands well clear of the pack.

win9Arabella StoneML 2/1

Arabella Stone posts an 88.54 TrackWiz rating — tied for the highest mark on today's full card — and draws the 2/1 morning line in a ten-horse field where most competitors rate well below her. Jockey Angel O. Ramirez gets the call for trainer Tyler Stein, and at 250 yards, a clean break is everything. With this kind of rating separation from the rest of the field, she's the clear top choice even at a short price.

place5Queens Royal RideML 6/1

Queens Royal Ride is the hidden threat in this field, rating 78.89 and going off at 6/1 — that's a significant rating advantage over most of this field at a price the morning line isn't respecting enough. Jorge Torres rides for trainer Tony Dean Jones, and in a ten-horse sprint, post position chaos can open lanes. She's the main value play in the exotics here.

show8Dont Give a RipML 6/1

Dont Give a Rip checks in at 59.33 on our ratings — a clear step above the bottom half of this field — and offers 6/1 morning line odds that make him an attractive trifecta piece. Trainer Jose Hernandez-Martinez sends out Erik N. Esqueda, and in a field this large at 250 yards, anything can happen in the first few strides. He's your hedge against a scrambled result.

Our three free races — Races 1, 2, and 3 — give you a solid cross-section of the early card. In Race 1, Turnpike Princess stands out as a genuine overlay at 8/1 morning line, with a TrackWiz rating of 79.79 in a short field over a surface that should suit her. Longshots in short-distance claiming sprints have real value when the pace sets up right, and that's exactly the scenario our analysis is flagging here. In Race 2, Rhaegals Rose carries an 88.54 TrackWiz rating and draws the favorite's chair at 2/1 in the only route on the card — the 870-yard maiden. That rating is among the strongest of the day, so don't let the morning line fool you into thinking this is a banker-and-move-on situation. Race 3 brings Arabella Stone in at 2/1 in Maiden Claiming company over 250 yards, matching that same elite 88.54 mark.

The common thread across all three free picks? This dry, fast surface is rewarding horses with strong out-of-the-gate acceleration, and our top-rated contenders in each race profile as exactly that type. Pace will be honest and quick — there's no reason to expect any of these sprints to set up for closers.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:18 PM EDT

Claiming · 350 yd · Dirt

Trainer Samuel E. Valdivia saddles two of the top-rated horses in this 350-yard claimer, setting up a potential stable sweep — but it's the one flying slightly under the morning line radar that our analysis likes best.

win7Fancy Workin GirlML 5/1

Fancy Workin Girl leads all TrackWiz ratings in Race 4 at 84.17, and at 5/1 on the morning line, she's actually priced longer than stablemate Lets Go Fancy despite rating higher — that's the kind of overlay our model flags immediately. Roman Cruz handles the riding duties, a capable stick at Will Rogers, and the Valdivia barn clearly has this horse ready. Her 14% career win rate isn't flashy, but in a seven-horse claiming field at 350 yards, she doesn't need to be — she just needs to run her number.

place6Lets Go FancyML 3/1

Lets Go Fancy sits just behind at an 80.01 rating and draws the 3/1 morning line, making the stablemate connection with Fancy Workin Girl a real factor in how this race sets up. Cody Rodger Smith rides, and trainer Valdivia running two in the same race often signals genuine confidence in both. At 3/1, she's a natural exacta partner with her barn buddy.

show5Royal Candy PML 2/1

Royal Candy P rates 65.33 and is the 2/1 morning line favorite, which means the public is leaning on a horse our model has ranked third in the field — that's a potential value opportunity underneath. Trainer Marco Adair Chavez-Gutierrez also conditions Ae Forty Five in this race, adding another dual-entry angle. Royal Candy P's 20% career win rate is the best mark among the top contenders, keeping her relevant in all exotic combinations.

Race 5

6:43 PM EDT

Allowance · 250 yd · Dirt

An allowance sprint at 250 yards where the two top-rated horses are separated by just half a point — this figures to be a true match race, and the morning line reflects it with tight pricing at the top.

win2Caseys DynastyML 2/1

Caseys Dynasty owns an 88.54 TrackWiz rating — the top mark in this allowance field — and draws a 2/1 morning line that confirms the market consensus. Cody Rodger Smith gets the mount for trainer Stacey L. Capps, and this pair's 14% career win rate is enough to be competitive at the allowance level. In a 250-yard dash, the horse with the highest pre-race rating most often dictates the outcome, and Caseys Dynasty has earned that distinction today.

place3Favorito CartierML 5/2

Favorito Cartier is a genuine threat to upset the top pick, rating 84.03 — just 0.51 points behind — and going off at 5/2, making this a near-even matchup on paper. Ruben Castro rides for trainer Samuel Mendoza, and Favorito Cartier's 16% career win rate actually edges out our top pick's. If there's any pace trouble or a slow break from the #2 slot, Favorito could be there to pounce.

show5Oceans 13ML 3/1

Oceans 13 rates 71.97 and is priced at 3/1, offering a nice bridge between the top two contenders and the rest of the field. Trainer Jesus Ruben Ruiz sends Roman Cruz to ride, and notably Ruiz also conditions Ms Relentless Streak in this same race — a dual-entry from a barn often signals readiness. Oceans 13's 3% career win rate is low, but the rating tells a different story and makes him a worthy show play in this spot.

Race 6

7:08 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 330 yd · Dirt

A maiden claiming field at 330 yards where the morning line favorite and our top pick are two different horses — creating a clear overlay opportunity and making this one of the more interesting betting races on the card.

win6Blood E FastML 4/1

Blood E Fast lands atop our TrackWiz ratings at 85.62 in a field where the morning line 2/1 favorite — Sp Cyber City — rates a full 18 points lower at 67.11. That divergence is significant, and at 4/1, Blood E Fast represents real value. Bryan Candanosa gets the mount for trainer Joe M. Davis, who also saddles Sp Cyber City, meaning Davis is double-entered with his barn's confidence presumably leaning toward the higher-rated runner. At 330 yards, this type of rating edge tends to hold up.

place3My Kind of FancyML 8/1

My Kind of Fancy checks in at a solid 69.08 rating and draws an 8/1 morning line — that's an underlay situation worth targeting in the exotics. Randy Vega rides for trainer Luis Villafranco, and the fact that she rates above the morning line favorite while going off at considerably longer odds makes her the value play in the exacta. Don't overlook her in trifectas either.

show8Sp Cyber CityML 2/1

Sp Cyber City is the 2/1 morning line chalk here, which means the public will pile on — but at a 67.11 rating, our model has her ranked third in the field. Cordarelton J. Benn rides for trainer Joe M. Davis, who as noted also runs Blood E Fast. She's a safe show play given her public support, but the true value in this race sits at longer prices.

Race 7

7:33 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 250 yd · Dirt

A sprawling ten-horse maiden claiming sprint at 250 yards with a clear class separation at the top — two horses rate significantly above the rest, making the win pool straightforward but the trifecta bottom wide open.

win3Fabulous Desire EbML 3/1

Fabulous Desire Eb leads all comers in Race 7 with an 87.08 TrackWiz rating and draws a 3/1 morning line that reflects solid but not overwhelming public confidence. Roman Cruz handles the mount for trainer Jose Angel Burciaga, and the pairing of a high rating with a fair price is the sweet spot our analysis targets. In a ten-horse maiden field at 250 yards, breaking position and early composure are everything — and this horse's profile suggests she's ready to deliver.

place9Jess Duanes CapoML 2/1

Jess Duanes Capo rates 82.34 — a strong second-best in the field — and draws the 2/1 morning line favorite nod, meaning the public actually prefers this horse slightly despite a lower rating. Jaime Mata rides for trainer Manuel Carrillo Jr., and the tight rating gap between the top two makes an exacta wheel in both directions a smart play. This is a genuine photo-finish candidate for the top two slots.

show7This Gals Not EasyML 8/1

This Gals Not Easy comes in at an 8/1 morning line with a 56.54 TrackWiz rating — notably higher than the next several horses in the field — and offers real trifecta value as a show anchor. Juan Pulido gets the call for trainer Guillermo Valdivia, and in a wide, ten-horse sprint, the middle of the pack can surprise when the top contenders tangle. She's the logical bridge in any trifecta combination.

Race 8

7:58 PM EDT

Maiden · 300 yd · Dirt

Ten first-time-or-maiden runners at 300 yards, and one horse stands apart with the top rating by a wide margin — the question is whether the morning line has already priced that edge out of the win pool.

win6The Best FreightrainML 2/1

The Best Freightrain sits at an 88.54 TrackWiz rating — the highest in Race 8 and tied for the card's best mark today — and draws the 2/1 morning line, aligning our model perfectly with public expectation. Juan Arellano gets the mount for trainer Hernesto Ramirez, and in a ten-horse maiden field this spread out on talent, a horse with this rating separation rarely gets beat without bad luck. At 2/1 the price is modest, but the confidence level is high — this is a horse to anchor your tickets around.

place1Midnyght ExpressML 4/1

Midnyght Express rates 67.73 and is priced at 4/1, making him the clear second choice by our model in a field where the drop-off from first to third is steep. Ryder Olmstead rides for trainer Jason L. Olmstead — a family connection that often signals extra attention to detail in race preparation. He profiles as a likely place finisher and should be in every exotic combination underneath The Best Freightrain.

show8Made His JackML 5/1

Made His Jack rates 63.05 and draws a 5/1 morning line, rounding out our top three in a field where most runners rate well below the 60-point mark. Jose Sosa handles the riding duties for trainer Buddy Leon Clay, and the 300-yard distance offers a slight edge to horses who can get out and sustain through the middle portion of the race. He's a dependable show play in a race where the bottom of the field is very beatable.

Race 9

8:23 PM EDT

Allowance · 250 yd · Dirt

A quality allowance field at 250 yards where the top TrackWiz rating and the morning line agree — but a pair of horses rated nearly identically in the 73-range offer interesting underneath value at reasonable prices.

win2Wf Tuff as DiamondsML 2/1

Wf Tuff as Diamonds clocks in at an 88.54 TrackWiz rating — the top score in Race 9 and among the best on the full card today — and draws the 2/1 morning line for trainer Haley N. Hobbs. Fernando Fonseca-Soto gets the mount, and the horse's 14% career win rate in an allowance company is competitive. When the model's top rating and the public's morning line consensus align this cleanly, there's little reason to fight it — this is a confident top selection.

place1Mariahs Candy GirlML 3/1

Mariahs Candy Girl rates 73.85 and goes off at 3/1, giving her the second-best TrackWiz score in the race and a price that reflects legitimate contention rather than speculative hope. Jonathan Dominguez rides for trainer Erik N. Rodriguez-Garcia, and her 14% career win rate mirrors our top pick's, meaning she can win this outright if something goes wrong for Wf Tuff as Diamonds. She's the natural exacta partner and a horse to take seriously in all formats.

show3Mh Aj Laico BirdML 5/1

Mh Aj Laico Bird rates 73.58 — just a whisker below Mariahs Candy Girl — and offers 5/1 morning line odds in what amounts to a near three-way dead heat at the top of the ratings. Cody Rodger Smith gets the mount for trainer Eddie D. Willis, and the 16% career win rate is actually the best of the top three contenders. At 5/1, she's underpriced by the model and worth including in trifectas as a legitimate show threat.

Race 10

8:48 PM EDT

Maiden · 250 yd · Dirt

To close out the card, a ten-horse maiden sprint at 250 yards with one horse carrying a dominant rating and a price that should offer some value — a fitting nightcap with a clear top choice and live longshot underneath.

win4Zoomin CapoML 5/2

Zoomin Capo leads all runners in Race 10 with an 87.81 TrackWiz rating and draws the 5/2 morning line — a reasonable price that still offers some margin over what the model projects as the class of this field. Gonzalo Gutierrez gets the mount for trainer Gerardo Quinones-Sarmiento, and in a maiden field at 250 yards, this level of rating separation usually translates to a result. He's the horse to build your final-race tickets around.

place8Hang Tight Honey NhML 5/1

Hang Tight Honey Nh rates 77.68 and is priced at 5/1, offering the second-best score in the field at a price the morning line is undervaluing relative to the rating gap. Angel O. Ramirez rides for trainer William S. Harris, and the 10-point rating advantage Hang Tight holds over the third-best horse in the field is meaningful. She's a strong exacta partner and a legitimate place contender.

show10Tnr Aunt GML 10/1

Tnr Aunt G draws the 10/1 morning line but checks in with a 73.63 TrackWiz rating — third-best in the field by a comfortable margin and a significant underlay at those odds. Oscar Jaquez gets the mount for trainer Everardo N. Escamilla-Gonzalez, and in a maiden sprint where anything can scramble in the first few yards, a horse this well-rated at double-digit odds is a gift in the trifecta. Don't let that price tag fool you — the numbers say she belongs in this conversation.

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Bottom line: Will Rogers is giving us a fast, fair track today and a full 10-race card with some genuine value opportunities — Turnpike Princess at 8/1 in Race 1 is the kind of overlay you build your day around. Rhaegals Rose and Arabella Stone round out a strong free-race trio for casual players. For subscribers, the back half of the card is loaded with pace angles and exotic plays worth exploring. Full analysis is live now for premium members — see /pricing to unlock everything.

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