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Thistledown Picks & Predictions — September 14, 2026

September 14, 20268 racesAll Thistledown picks

It's a beautiful Monday at Thistledown — 67°F, clear skies, and a fast dirt track that should reward speed throughout an eight-race card. Conditions like these tend to produce honest fractions and clean trips, so pace scenarios will be worth watching closely all afternoon.

The card is a solid mid-week mix of claiming and allowance company, sprints and a lone route, giving bettors plenty of angles to work. Three of today's races are available free to all TrackWiz readers, and our top-rated pick of the day — Box Office Hit in Race 3 — checks in at an 88.54 TrackWiz rating against allowance foes at 6 furlongs.

Whether you're firing singles or building multi-race tickets, there's enough variation in this card to keep things interesting from the first post to the nightcap.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Two horses sit well above the rest on ratings in this 6-furlong dirt claimer, setting up a potential match race between the morning-line favorite and a close rival — but a pair of overlooked mid-board prices could complicate things.

win6Holidays Army BratML 2/1

Holidays Army Brat tops our TrackWiz ratings at 88.54 and draws the morning-line favoritism at 2/1 for good reason. The Anthony Rini trainee carries an average speed figure of 53, matching the best in the field, and Ricardo Feliciano gets the call in the irons. At 15% career wins the win rate isn't flashy, but the rating separation over the rest of the field is real — this horse has the profile of a race-shaper who can control or press the pace and still have something left in the tank.

place2Cat's CradleML 5/2

Cat's Cradle is virtually deadlocked with the top pick on ratings (87.61 vs. 88.54), which tells you this one is a legitimate threat rather than a consolation ticket. Trainer Robert M. Gorham sends out Erik Barbaran, and a 25% career win rate gives Cat's Cradle legitimate credibility in any exacta or place ticket. The 5/2 morning line might even compress further on the board — keep that in mind if you're building exotics.

show1ThebeesenvymeML 6/1

Thebeesenvyme at 6/1 is the most intriguing hedge in the race. A TrackWiz rating of 66.9 separates this horse clearly from the bottom half of the field, and that 28% career win percentage is quietly the second-best figure in the entire field. Victor R. Fernandez has a live mount here at a price that rewards inclusion in trifectas.

Race 2

5:20 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A wide-open maiden claimer where every horse is still chasing that first career win — the key is finding who has the best underlying form and speed to graduate today over 5½ furlongs of Thistledown dirt.

win9Pleasure PearlML 7/2

Pleasure Pearl stands out from a crowded maiden field with the top TrackWiz rating at 86.35, a full 13+ points clear of the next contender. Erik Barbaran takes the mount, a plus in itself, and the horse's average speed figure of 54 ties for the best in the race. At 7/2 on the morning line, this is a manageable favorite price for a horse who clearly profiles as the class of this maiden bunch.

place10Oak MirnaML 5/1

Oak Mirna is worth singling out at 5/1 with a rating of 72.92 and an average speed of 54 that matches the top figures in this race. Trainer Jose Atala puts Fernando Salazar Becerra aboard, and the program number 10 post means pace is important — if Oak Mirna gets a clean trip from outside, there's enough upside here to make her dangerous in the exacta.

show2Destiny's TotML 6/1

Destiny's Tot (6/1) rounds out the TrackWiz top three with a rating of 70.44 and a 54 average speed — identical to Oak Mirna and Pleasure Pearl at the top of the speed hierarchy. Trainer Oscar Romero gives Alexander Chavez the call, and in a maiden race where the entire field is winless, clustering the top-rated trio in your trifecta is the sensible play.

Race 3

5:50 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

This 6-furlong allowance features a pair of unbeaten horses mixing it up with a morning-line favorite who owns a dominant TrackWiz rating — the pace scenario here is the defining factor, with multiple horses likely to push early.

win2Box Office HitML 2/1

Box Office Hit is the TrackWiz top-rated horse in this allowance at 88.54 and draws the morning-line chalk at 2/1 under Erik Barbaran for trainer Robert M. Gorham. A 33% career win rate is genuinely strong for an allowance runner, and the 54 average speed figure is among the best in the field. Gorham also saddles Bee Boppin in the race, giving the barn a two-pronged attack — but Box Office Hit is clearly the stable's A-game entry based on the ratings.

place3Chestnut QueenML 9/2

Chestnut Queen carries a 69.36 rating and a 25% career win rate, and trainer Timothy E. Hamm has her well-placed at 9/2 on the morning line. Her 54 average speed matches the top figures in this field, and with Laureano Sosa aboard, she has a legitimate shot to run into the exacta behind the favorite.

show5Bee BoppinML 3/1

Bee Boppin is interesting as a show hedge at 3/1 — notably, this horse owns a perfect 100% career win rate, which suggests a lightly raced but undefeated profile. The average speed of 52 is a tick off the leaders, but if the pace gets hot early between the multiple speed horses, Bee Boppin's tactical versatility could land a piece.

Our three free races today span a range of conditions — a 6-furlong claiming sprint in Race 1, a maiden claiming dash at 5½ furlongs in Race 2, and an allowance feature at 6 furlongs in Race 3. On a clear, dry day with the dirt playing true, early speed has every reason to hold. Keep that in mind when evaluating Holidays Army Brat (Race 1, 2/1 ML, 88.54 rating) and Box Office Hit (Race 3, 2/1 ML, 88.54 rating) — both figure to be near or on the lead and should benefit from what looks like honest but not killing early pace.

In between, Pleasure Pearl lands in a maiden claiming field at 7/2 on the morning line — a spot where TrackWiz analysis sees enough upside to take a swing even at a price that won't light up the tote board. All three free picks carry ratings above 86, which is a strong baseline for a Monday card.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Commissioner D enters this 5½-furlong dirt claimer as a clear class standout on the ratings, but a competitive mid-field keeps the trifecta wide open and makes the race worth attacking with exotics.

win6Commissioner DML 5/2

Commissioner D tops TrackWiz ratings at 87.81 — nearly 10 points clear of the second-ranked horse — and posts the best average speed in the field at 54. Jose A. Bracho takes the mount for trainer Justin Radosevich, and that 30% career win percentage is among the strongest in this claiming field. At 5/2 on the morning line, Commissioner D is a deserving favorite and our best bet in Race 4.

place5Feeling EasyML 4/1

Feeling Easy rates second in the field at 77.87 and goes off at 4/1 morning line, offering legitimate place value. Trainer Nestor R. Rivera puts Gerardo Corrales up, and a 15% career win rate at the claiming level is respectable. The 53 average speed matches several other contenders, but the rating edge separates Feeling Easy as the most logical exacta partner.

show3Kettle KissML 5/1

Kettle Kiss at 5/1 rates third in the field at 72.79 for trainer Jeffrey A. Radosevich, who also saddles Quick Rendezvous — giving the barn a dual entry to track. A 23% career win rate is solid, and Luis Raul Rivera gets the call. For trifecta players, Kettle Kiss is a durable third piece at a price that won't crater your payout.

Race 5

6:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

The morning-line favorite here carries a surprisingly low TrackWiz rating given the 2/1 odds, opening the door for Renewed to offer genuine value at a bigger number in this 5½-furlong dirt claimer.

win2RenewedML 4/1

Renewed is our TrackWiz top pick at 85.62 — easily the highest rating in the field — yet the morning line has this horse going off at 4/1, which is a potential value disconnect worth exploiting. Angel I. Diaz picks up the mount for trainer Jevon D. Crumley, and a 53 average speed figure is among the best in the race. The 9% career win rate is modest, but the underlying rating strongly suggests this runner is better than that number implies.

place6Seyval BlancML 3/1

Seyval Blanc rates second in the field at 59.0 under trainer Michael L. Rone with Erik Barbaran aboard. A 12% career win rate isn't dazzling, but at 3/1 morning line, Seyval Blanc has the speed figure (53) to sit off whatever pace develops and get involved late. An exacta combining Renewed over Seyval Blanc looks attractive at the projected prices.

show5Calling TillieML 8/1

Calling Tillie at 8/1 is a compelling show inclusion — a 57.55 rating slots in third in the field, and notably this horse serves as both trainer and jockey, with Kirsten Swan wearing both hats. That personal investment often translates to sharp condition awareness. A 14% career win rate and 52 average speed give Calling Tillie a legitimate shot to hit the board.

Race 6

7:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Stretching out to a mile in this dirt claimer, the pace scenario becomes critical — several closers could be set up for a big late run if the speed horses burn each other up in the first half.

win4Remember the FearML 7/2

Remember the Fear leads our TrackWiz ratings at 86.35 and is lined at 7/2 morning line with Brandon Tapara in the irons for trainer Saul M. Morales. A 53 average speed figure and a 16% career win rate at the claiming level are workmanlike numbers, but the rating margin over the field is the real story here. Morales also runs Skibidi Rizz in this race, but Remember the Fear is clearly the barn's primary missile.

place6John's RockML 3/1

John's Rock rates second in the race at 79.67 and offers strong place credentials at 3/1 morning line. The 25% career win rate is the best among the top-rated trio, and Jose A. Bracho piloting this horse for trainer Nestor R. Rivera is a reliable combination. Over a mile of dirt, John's Rock's pace versatility could make this horse a major factor throughout the stretch.

show5Florida GatorML 10/1

Florida Gator at 10/1 is the value show option, rating third overall at 72.11 with the best average speed in the race at 54. Trainer Johanna Urieta gives the mount to Deshawn L. Parker, and a 17% career win rate for a horse going off at double-digit odds suggests some market inefficiency here. In a two-turn race where pace can unravel, Florida Gator's speed could be deadly late.

Race 7

7:50 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

This 6-furlong allowance is shaping up as a clash between the morning-line chalk and a pair of horses who outrate the public favorite significantly — it's a race where the crowd may be looking in the wrong direction.

win8MieshaML 4/1

Miesha carries the top TrackWiz rating in this allowance at 85.62 yet draws a 4/1 morning line, making this horse worth singling on win tickets. Luis Raul Rivera gets the mount for trainer Michael L. Rone, and a 54 average speed figure matches the best in a quality field. The 13% career win rate is the one soft spot, but the ratings data strongly supports Miesha over the morning-line favorite in this spot.

place4Officially YoursML 8/1

Officially Yours is a genuine value play at 8/1 on the morning line with a 78.25 TrackWiz rating — the second-best figure in the race. Trainer Robert M. Gorham puts Erik Barbaran up, and a 27% career win rate is among the strongest in this allowance field. If the crowd over-bets Kissin Cash at the top of the market, Officially Yours becomes an excellent exacta overlay.

show2Kissin CashML 2/1

Kissin Cash draws the 2/1 morning-line favoritism but rates third in the field at 72.77 on TrackWiz — which is a potential pricing red flag. The 21% career win rate and 53 average speed are solid, and trainer Kim A. Puhl has Luis Antonio Gonzalez aboard. As a show ticket hedge, Kissin Cash makes sense given the crowd support, even if our ratings suggest the horse is overpriced to win.

Race 8

8:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A deep nine-horse claiming field at 6 furlongs closes out the card, with Authoritarian Girl standing apart on both ratings and career win percentage — though Waves of Liberty and Perfect Date make this a legitimate trifecta puzzle.

win9Authoritarian GirlML 5/2

Authoritarian Girl is the standout of the entire day's card with a 87.81 TrackWiz rating and a remarkable 62% career win percentage — the highest win rate on the entire card. Luis Antonio Gonzalez rides for trainer Marco Ibarra, and a 54 average speed figure ties for the best in this nine-horse field. At 5/2 on the morning line, this may actually be underpriced given that career win rate, but it still offers a reasonable return for a horse that clearly knows how to finish first.

place8Waves of LibertyML 6/1

Waves of Liberty rates second in the field at 78.75 and draws a 6/1 morning line, which looks like genuine place value. Trainer Timothy E. Hamm has Laureano Sosa aboard, and a 25% career win rate combined with a 53 average speed gives this horse real credentials in an exacta behind the top pick. A 6/1 place horse in a field this size is worth stacking in your exotics.

show6Perfect DateML 7/2

Perfect Date slots in at 7/2 morning line with a 74.47 rating — third-best in the field — and a strong 26% career win percentage. Ricardo Feliciano takes the mount for trainer Joseph M. Poole, and the 53 average speed is consistent with the mid-tier of this field. As the third piece of a trifecta, Perfect Date has both the ratings and the market backing to make show tickets look smart.

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Clear skies, a consistent dirt surface, and eight races with some legitimate top-end contenders — Thistledown is giving us a workable Monday card. Box Office Hit is our marquee play of the day, and Holidays Army Brat and Pleasure Pearl round out a free-preview trio worth watching. Subscribers have the full roadmap — pace angles, exotic tickets, and all five premium race breakdowns — ready to go. Good luck at the windows.

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