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Thistledown Picks & Predictions — September 9, 2026

September 9, 20268 racesAll Thistledown picks

This card ran on September 9, 2026.

Best bets at Thistledown, September 9, 2026

Race 18Guns and ShipsML 9/212:50 PM EDT

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We're heading to Thistledown on a warm Wednesday afternoon — 84°F and partly cloudy, which means a fast, consistent dirt surface is very much in play. Eight races on the card, all on the dirt, ranging from sprint sprints at 5½ furlongs to a pair of one-mile routes that should sort out who really belongs.

The claiming ranks dominate today's card, but don't let that fool you — claiming races at Thistledown can be a handicapper's best friend. Class shifts are subtle, pace scenarios are often predictable, and sharp angles pay off more consistently than at bigger tracks. That's exactly where TrackWiz analysis earns its keep.

First post is approaching, so let's break down what we're watching — and where we think the money is best spent today.

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Race 1

12:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

An 11-horse claiming sprint that splits neatly at the top — two horses rated in the mid-80s stand well above the pack, but a pair of double-digit morning line prices lurk as pace disruptors worth tracking.

win8Guns and ShipsML 9/2

Guns and Ships is our top selection in Race 1, and the TrackWiz rating of 84.9 is the highest in the field by a whisker. What really jumps out is the 25% career win rate — in a claiming field where most rivals are hitting single digits or low teens, that kind of strike rate signals a horse that knows how to finish the job. Luis Antonio Gonzalez gets the call, and at 9/2 on the morning line, there's still some meat on the bone here. Six furlongs on the Thistledown dirt should suit a horse with this kind of speed profile.

place10Eileen's DesperadoML 7/2

Eileen's Desperado is essentially a photo finish with Guns and Ships in our ratings (84.5 vs. 84.9), making the place slot a natural landing spot. A 16% career win rate is solid for this level, and trainer Loren Huepenbecker has two horses in this race, which often signals stable confidence. At 7/2 on the morning line, the place payoff should still be worth your while.

show4Daredevil DougML 12/1

Daredevil Doug is our show-spot value play at 12/1 on the morning line — a horse the crowd will likely overlook given that price but one whose 66.07 TrackWiz rating leads the middle tier of this field. An 18% career win rate is legitimately competitive for this company, and in a big field like this, closers can find sneaky spots on the board. Jockey Deshawn L. Parker gives this runner a capable hand.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 11 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

1:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Khali J looks like a short-priced standout, but Trotter is right there with legit numbers to make this a two-horse battle — the rest of the field faces a steep climb to get involved.

win2Khali JML 8/5

Khali J leads all comers in Race 2 with a TrackWiz rating of 89.12 and a 25% career win rate — the kind of consistent winner you can lean on in a claiming sprint. The 8/5 morning line makes this a short favorite, but the numbers back the price. Erik Barbaran is an experienced hand who knows how to navigate five-and-a-half furlongs, and trainer Robert M. Gorham is sending out a horse that profiles as the clear class of this field.

place3TrotterML 4/1

Trotter is the legitimate main threat here, rated 77.55 by TrackWiz — a full 12 points behind Khali J but well clear of the rest. A 22% career win rate is actually better than the favorite's, which tells you this horse just may be facing a tough task today against a red-hot rival. At 4/1, Trotter offers solid place value and could easily flip the result if Khali J hits any trouble.

show7Mary KatherineML 3/1

Mary Katherine gets the nod for show at 3/1 on the morning line, and while the career win rate of 8% is modest, the TrackWiz rating of 50.45 puts her ahead of the remaining field by a comfortable margin. Trainer Michelle Winters teams with jockey Alexander Chavez in what looks like a forward-pointing spot. In a short field of seven, the board positions should come fairly easily for the top three here.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

The first three races are on the house, and we like what we see. Guns and Ships opens the card in Race 1 at 6 furlongs at a morning line of 9/2 — that's a price worth circling. Our rating of 84.9 puts him squarely in contention, and if there's any pace pressure early, horses with tactical speed tend to thrive on a firm Thistledown dirt strip like we're expecting today. In Race 2, Khali J comes in as the 8/5 morning line favorite over 5½ furlongs with a TrackWiz rating of 89.12 — she looks like a short-field type who can control her own destiny on the front end. And in the Race 3 Maiden Special Weight, Oaklyn tops our free selections with an 89.71 rating and a 6/5 morning line that feels about right — but maiden races always carry risk, and we'll tell you exactly why we trust her numbers.

The common thread across the free races: speed is shaping up to be rewarded early in the card on what should be a dry, sealed surface. Keep an eye on early fractions — if the pace is honest, closers get a look, but our top picks all profile as horses that can dictate or sit close to the tempo.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

1:50 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Maiden Special Weight tuneup with no career winners in the field — Oaklyn is a heavy chalk at 6/5, but the 3/1 and 4/1 shots aren't far behind in the ratings, making the undercard exotics worth a closer look.

win4OaklynML 6/5

Oaklyn is the standout in this maiden field with a TrackWiz rating of 89.71 — a full 33 points clear of the next-closest runner. Trained by David Wolochuk and ridden by Chelsey Keiser, this horse has been putting up average speed figures of 52, which leads the field in a race where two entrants are at 50 or 51. Yes, the 6/5 morning line limits the win payoff, but this looks like a legitimate top-notch maiden who should handle the step up to five-and-a-half furlongs with ease.

place6Miss MiddieML 3/1

Miss Middie comes in with a 56.67 TrackWiz rating — second-best in the field — and Fernando Salazar Becerra gets the ride at 3/1 on the morning line. In maiden races, trainer patterns and workout lines matter as much as past performance, and Robert C. Cline placing her here suggests confidence she can fire a big effort. She's close enough to Oaklyn in the ratings that a minor upset isn't out of the question.

show5Princess LeiasML 4/1

Princess Leias at 4/1 rounds out our vertical ticket with a 55.0 TrackWiz rating, just a hair behind Miss Middie in the pecking order. Trainer James R. Jackson and jockey T. D. Houghton connect here, and Jackson also trained I Just Don't No in Race 1 — a barn worth monitoring on the day. At a fair price in a wide-open maiden, she's a sensible show play.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 4

2:20 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 mi · Dirt

A tight allowance mile where two horses — Krissys Star and Creator of Magic — are separated by less than two TrackWiz points at the top, setting up what could be a stretch duel worth watching.

win6Krissys StarML 8/5

Krissys Star is our top pick in this allowance mile, rated 89.12 by TrackWiz — fractionally ahead of Creator of Magic but backed by a 30% career win rate that is genuinely elite for any level. Trainer William E. Morey sends her out at 8/5 on the morning line with Deshawn L. Parker in the irons, a productive pairing. At a mile on the dirt, horses who win nearly a third of their starts tend to know how to put rivals away in the lane, and that profile fits Krissys Star.

place4Creator of MagicML 2/1

Creator of Magic is almost impossible to leave off the ticket with a 42% career win rate — that is a legitimately staggering number that suggests a horse who competes hard every time it runs. Trainer Eric R. Reed has this one pegged at 2/1 on the morning line, and the 87.26 TrackWiz rating confirms near-elite form. If the favorite hits any traffic at the mile distance, Creator of Magic has the class to capitalize.

show2VesperaML 6/1

Vespera rounds out our show coverage at 6/1, offering genuine value in what is otherwise a top-heavy race. The 74.57 TrackWiz rating puts her third in the field, and a 17% career win rate is solid for allowance company. Trainer Jeffrey A. Radosevich places her at a mile with Luis Raul Rivera up — a combination that seems purpose-built for this route distance.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 5

2:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Three horses rated in the high-70s to high-80s make this a legitimate tri-way battle — the pace scenario figures to be honest with speed throughout the field, which could set things up perfectly for a closer.

win2Brief EncounterML 9/5

Brief Encounter tops our Race 5 ratings at 88.83 and brings a 22% career win rate into a five-and-a-half furlong sprint that looks tailor-made for her running style. At 9/5 on the morning line, she's the public's choice too, but the TrackWiz number backs the crowd here. Trainer James R. Jackson has multiple runners on today's card and is clearly a barn to watch — Luis Raul Rivera gets the mount and should have this filly well-positioned early.

place4Angel I'm NotML 7/2

Angel I'm Not is the value play at 7/2 with a 82.65 TrackWiz rating — third in the field but only a couple of points behind Drill Blitz. An 18% career win rate tells you this horse competes consistently, and trainer Robert C. Cline puts Victor R. Fernandez aboard. If the pace gets hot up front and Brief Encounter has to work hard, Angel I'm Not could sweep through for a big place dividend.

show3Drill BlitzML 2/1

Drill Blitz rounds out the trifecta at 2/1 — technically second in the morning line but third in our ratings at 78.48. The 13% career win rate is the notable caveat here; she's been close without winning as often as you'd like. Still, at the short price and with Jefferson Skerrett up for trainer Gary L. Johnson, she should at minimum be fighting for a spot on the board.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 6

3:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Wicca Wisdom dominates the TrackWiz ratings in this one-mile claiming race, but the betting market flips the order — Dreaming of Audrey is the 8/5 public choice while our top-rated horse goes off at 2/1, creating an interesting overlay angle.

win3Wicca WisdomML 2/1

Wicca Wisdom leads the field with an 88.54 TrackWiz rating — 13 points clear of Dreaming of Audrey — and Deshawn L. Parker in the saddle for trainer Johanna Urieta gives this one a strong connections profile. The 18% career win rate is respectable for a mile-distance claimer, and an average speed figure of 51 is competitive in this group. At 2/1 morning line, she's not the public favorite, which is exactly the kind of overlay situation TrackWiz looks to exploit.

place4Dreaming of AudreyML 8/5

Dreaming of Audrey is the morning line favorite at 8/5 and rated 75.43 by TrackWiz, so the public clearly sees something to like — a 19% career win rate and a speed figure of 52 that matches the top speed in the field. Trainer Jeffrey A. Radosevich and jockey Erik Barbaran combine here, a barn-and-rider duo that shows up multiple times on today's card. She's legit on the place end even if we have her one notch below Wicca Wisdom.

show2CevicheML 7/2

Ceviche at 7/2 is our show play in Race 6, and while a 5% career win rate raises an eyebrow, the 62.88 TrackWiz rating puts her third in the field with a healthy gap back to the rest. Trainer Tina Casalinova also enters Princess Opal in this race, so she has a read on the field from inside the barn. Chelsey Keiser aboard gives this long-priced shipper a fighting chance to hit the board.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 7

3:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Little Bit of That is a standout on paper with a 43% career win rate and the top speed figure in the field, but Crackle and She's So Sexy are talented enough to make the exacta genuinely competitive — this race has a clear favorite but not an unbeatable one.

win5Little Bit of ThatML 9/5

Little Bit of That is as impressive a claiming horse as you'll find at this level — a 43% career win rate is remarkable, and the average speed figure of 55 leads the field outright. TrackWiz has this horse rated 86.76, and at 9/5 on the morning line, that's a fair reflection of the talent gap. Luis Alberto Batista takes the mount for trainer Kent Knudsen in a five-and-a-half furlong sprint where speed figures like these tend to translate directly into wins.

place3CrackleML 6/1

Crackle is the value angle at 6/1 in a race where the favorite gets a lot of public attention. A TrackWiz rating of 82.71 is legitimately elite for this field — only Little Bit of That scores higher — and while the 14% career win rate trails the top contender by a wide margin, that gap may be partly circumstantial based on competition level. Fernando Salazar Becerra takes the call for trainer Khadeem Galloway, and at 6/1, a place finish pays handsomely.

show6She's So SexyML 5/2

She's So Sexy checks in with a 76.74 TrackWiz rating and an average speed figure of 54 — tied for second-best in the field. Trainer Jeffrey A. Radosevich, who is having a busy card today, sends her out at 5/2 with Luis Raul Rivera up. She may be underrated by the market relative to her numbers, making her a solid show-bet anchor and a logical bottom leg of the trifecta.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 8

4:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Lordbetwentothorns headlines a wide-open claiming sprint where the top three rated horses are separated by more than 34 points from the rest of the field — the win looks like a two-horse race, but the show spot is surprisingly open.

win6LordbetwentothornsML 2/1

Lordbetwentothorns sits atop the Race 8 ratings at 88.54 and posts the best average speed figure in the field at 54 — a number that stands out in a race where most rivals are clustered at 52-53. Trainer Justin Radosevich keeps David J. Haldar aboard, and at 2/1 on the morning line, the public is clearly aware of this horse's edge. A 7% career win rate is the one number that gives pause, but the raw speed and rating more than compensate in a soft field like this.

place5Mo Mo LightningML 3/1

Mo Mo Lightning is our place selection at 3/1, backed by a 77.69 TrackWiz rating that places him a comfortable second in the field. An 11% career win rate is modest, but trainer Megan Fadlovich saddles a horse who consistently puts up competitive speed figures of 53. Mauro Cedillo keeps the ride, and in a race where the favorite has some question marks in the win column, Mo Mo Lightning is the natural beneficiary.

show2He's My BoyML 5/1

He's My Boy at 5/1 rounds out our exotic coverage despite a 54.5 TrackWiz rating that trails the top two significantly. The 4% career win rate is low, but Jefferson Skerrett — who also has a mount in Race 7 for a different barn — is a competent jockey who can maximize a horse's effort on race day. Trainer Rodney C. Faulkner is also represented in Race 2 today, and if his barn is running hot, He's My Boy could sneak into the money at a generous price.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

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Eight dirt races, warm weather, and a card loaded with claiming intrigue and at least one maiden race that could go sideways in all the right ways. Our best bets on the day are Guns and Ships (R1), Khali J (R2), and Oaklyn (R3) — all available free. For the full card, including pace breakdowns, exotic tickets, and our premium picks in Races 4–8, subscribe to TrackWiz and get every angle before first post. Good luck out there — ride smart.

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