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Thistledown Picks & Predictions — August 11, 2026

August 11, 20268 racesAll Thistledown picks

This card ran on August 11, 2026.

Best bets at Thistledown, August 11, 2026

Race 19GapperML 5/112:50 PM EDT

Race 2 is free with an account, and the other 6 races are for members.

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Rain is falling at Thistledown today and 78°F temperatures mean the dirt is going to be playing wet all afternoon. That changes everything — pace scenarios tighten up, closers get a little more life, and horses with proven wet-track form move to the top of the pile. Eight races are on the card, and the conditions are going to be a factor in nearly every single one of them.

It's a mixed bag of conditions — three Claiming races, two Allowances, and a Maiden Special Weight sprinkled in early — so there's something for every style of bettor today. Three of the eight races are available free to all TrackWiz readers, and our top-rated pick of the card, Ed's Reward, lands right in that free tier.

Best Bets

Race 1

12:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A wide-open mile claimer where the TrackWiz ratings reveal a clear top tier — but with morning-line prices scattered from 7/2 to 30/1, there's real spread betting potential here.

win9GapperML 5/1

Gapper (9) sits atop the TrackWiz ratings with an 84.17 — a full ten points clear of the next rival — which is a meaningful edge in a field this spread out. Jockey Luis Antonio Gonzalez gets the call, and at 5/1 on the morning line, the market hasn't fully caught up to how dominant this rating gap is. The one-mile distance on dirt should play to a horse with this kind of overall profile. Trainer Enrique Lopez Jr. lands a well-rated runner in a spot that looks very winnable.

place3ControllerML 7/2

Controller (3) checks in at 74.62 on our ratings and draws the services of Rocco Bowen, one of the more reliable jockeys in this Thistledown colony. Posted at 7/2 on the morning line, this Timothy Hamm trainee brings a consistent profile to a one-mile claimer — and a 17% career win rate is respectable in this company. Worth anchoring your exacta and trifecta tickets.

show2HiteML 4/1

Hite (2) rates out at 71.93 and carries a 19% career win rate, landing squarely in the third tier of this competitive field. Trainer Ivan Vazquez also saddles Gray Tormentor, but Hite is clearly the barn's better gun here at 4/1. A horse with this rating and David Haldar up figures to be fighting for a share of the purse at the very least — solid exotic inclusion.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 11 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

1:20 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 fur · Dirt

A maiden special weight sprint at five furlongs where nobody has broken their maiden yet — this is a wide-open first-time or lightly-raced field where trainer and jockey angles carry extra weight.

win2Maximum GlowML 3/1

Maximum Glow (2) leads the TrackWiz ratings at 56.67 and is the morning-line favorite at 3/1, suggesting the connections and the market agree on this one. Fernando Salazar Becerra gets the mount for trainer Robert C. Cline, and with an average speed figure of 53 — tied for the top among horses who have recorded a workout — there's measurable upside here. In maiden sprints, the combination of a strong rating and a fair price is enough to make this the logical top selection.

place7Miss ExoticaML 7/2

Miss Exotica (7) rates at 55.83 — just a hair behind Maximum Glow — and comes in at 7/2 on the morning line for trainer Dale Carrington and jockey Rishawn Blanche. In maiden company, the razor-thin separation between the top three rated horses means the order can scramble in the stretch, and Miss Exotica has the profile to grab a piece. She's the natural pairing with Maximum Glow in exacta and quinella wagers.

show4Sea DreamsML 4/1

Sea Dreams (4) posts a 55.00 rating for the Timothy Hamm barn, which is an organization worth tracking at Thistledown. Jockey Laureano Sosa gets the call here at 4/1, and Hamm's double-barrel entry in this race — he also has Ati Mint — suggests real stable confidence in Sea Dreams specifically. Without a speed figure on record, there's a blank-slate quality to this runner, but the trainer's overall program and the rating make her a smart show ticket.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

The three free races today span a maiden sprint, a one-mile claimer, and a one-mile allowance — and the rain ties them together in a big way. On a sealed or sloppy track, early speed can either dominate or get swallowed up depending on how deep the footing gets, so pace scenario reads are crucial. Gapper in Race 1 gets our attention at 5/1 on the morning line, a price that might drift even further if the crowd underestimates the distance switch to a mile on this kind of surface. Race 2's Maximum Glow is a maiden special weight — always unpredictable, but our model still finds enough to like there at 3/1.

Ed's Reward is the headliner of the free card. An 88.83 TrackWiz rating in a one-mile allowance is the highest mark among the free picks, and the 9/5 morning line suggests the morning-line maker agrees. Allowance horses stepping back onto a wet surface can be vulnerable, but Ed's Reward profiles as the kind of runner who handles the off going. This is our anchor play of the afternoon.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

1:50 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 mi · Dirt

A tight two-horse battle tops this allowance mile, with Ed's Reward and Brick Ambush both carrying elite ratings and single-digit morning lines — the rest of the field is just filling out the exotics.

win5Ed's RewardML 9/5

Ed's Reward (5) is our top-rated horse in Race 3 at 88.83 and carries the most impressive career win percentage in the field at 33% — one in three starts ends in a win, and that's a genuinely strong number at the allowance level. Rocco Bowen takes the mount for the Timothy Hamm barn, a combination that's been clicking all day. At 9/5 on the morning line, this isn't a value play, but when the rating, the win rate, and the trainer-jockey tandem all line up, you back the horse.

place1Brick AmbushML 8/5

Brick Ambush (1) is the natural foil here — an 85.48 rating and the rail post under Luis Raul Rivera for trainer Jeffrey A. Radosevich. The 8/5 morning line actually makes Brick Ambush the marginal betting favorite despite our ratings preferring Ed's Reward, so the market sees a real race here. An 18% career win rate in allowance competition is workmanlike, and this horse figures to be head-and-head with our top pick through the stretch.

show6MetaphorML 8/1

Metaphor (6) is worth the exotic inclusion at 8/1 given the top speed figure in the field at 55 — that raw speed number stands out in a race where most horses are clustered at 52-53. Trainer Anthony F. Rini sends Ricardo Feliciano out on a horse that, on pure speed, can outrun both top picks on the right day. A 15% career win rate keeps expectations measured, but at 8/1, Metaphor is a smart trifecta underneath.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 4

2:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

This 5½-furlong claimer is headlined by a fascinating top-rated surprise — Union Swag carries the field's best TrackWiz score despite a juicy 7/2 morning line, setting up a potential value scenario against two lower-priced rivals.

win5Union SwagML 7/2

Union Swag (5) tops the field with an 86.35 TrackWiz rating — actually outscoring the 7/5 morning-line favorite — and that disconnect between our model and the morning line is exactly the kind of angle worth exploiting. Jockey Deshawn L. Parker gets the call for trainer Gary L. Johnson in what looks like a sharp placement. The 7/2 price on the highest-rated horse in the field is where value bets are born, and TrackWiz analysis points here with confidence.

place1Leo's LegacyML 7/5

Leo's Legacy (1) draws the rail under Luis Raul Rivera for trainer Jeffrey A. Radosevich and carries an 84.16 rating — just two points off Union Swag's mark. The 7/5 morning line signals heavy public support, and a 10% career win rate in a short-distance sprint suggests this horse competes consistently without always closing the deal. A prime candidate to finish second and anchor your exacta underneath Union Swag.

show2Good StuffML 9/5

Good Stuff (2) comes in at a 79.33 rating with the top average speed figure in the field at 54, suggesting genuine early zip over this 5½-furlong trip. Fernando Salazar Becerra handles the mount for Robert M. Gorham, and at 9/5, the market likes this one too. Third place feels like the floor for a horse with this speed profile in a short sprint — a reliable show bet and trifecta component.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 5

2:50 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

A loaded six-furlong allowance where the morning-line favorite actually rates below two rivals on the TrackWiz model — this race has the feel of a wide-open contest that could produce a lucrative exacta.

win4She's Willie FastML 4/1

She's Willie Fast (4) leads all TrackWiz ratings at 85.34 despite posting only the third-shortest morning line at 4/1 — that's the value gap we look for. Trainer Joseph M. Poole sends out Luis Antonio Gonzalez, and a 33% career win rate is elite in any company. An average speed figure of 54 matches the field's best, and at a mile-less-than-two-to-one bet, this is the clearest overlay in the race.

place1Grimes GlenML 8/1

Grimes Glen (1) is an eye-catching figure here — a 50% career win rate is the kind of number that jumps off the page, and a 79.79 rating backs it up. Trainer David Wolochuk sends out Chelsey Keiser at 8/1, which means the market is sleeping on a horse that wins half its starts. The longer the career win percentage holds, the harder it is to leave off your tickets.

show6Jasper MaximusML 2/1

Jasper Maximus (6) is the morning-line favorite at 2/1 for the Timothy Hamm barn, and Rocco Bowen is a dangerous combination anywhere at Thistledown. A 60% career win rate is staggering — the highest in the field by a wide margin — though an average speed figure of 50 is the lowest among horses with a figure recorded. That speed number is a flag, but you can't fully dismiss a horse that wins three of every five starts. A show ticket at minimum.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 6

3:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Double Agent looks like a dominant class standout at the top of the TrackWiz ratings, but the real intrigue here is whether a 37% career winner at 12/1 can sneak into the exacta and blow the trifecta wide open.

win6Double AgentML 9/5

Double Agent (6) carries an 88.83 TrackWiz rating — the highest in this six-horse claimer — and that's a 36-point gap over the next closest rival, which is about as lopsided a rating edge as you'll see. Rocco Bowen rides for trainer Timothy Hamm, a barn that has been one of the most active and effective at Thistledown all card long. At 9/5 on the morning line, the public has noticed, but the rating edge is so pronounced that you can't argue with taking a short-priced standout.

place4Fast and FriendlyML 12/1

Fast and Friendly (4) is the hidden form horse in this field — a 37% career win rate is the best among all six runners, and yet the morning line has this horse at 12/1. Jose A. Bracho gets the mount for trainer Johanson Serrano, and a horse that wins more than one in three starts simply cannot be dismissed regardless of morning-line price. This is your trifecta pivot horse and a legitimate 12/1 value play to finish second.

show5Counting On ClydeML 5/2

Counting On Clyde (5) enters with a 30% career win rate — second best in the field — and posts at 5/2 for trainer Craig Sweeting with German Terraza up. The 54 average speed figure is tied for the field's best, giving this horse genuine sprint credentials over 5½ furlongs. A reliable show ticket that should figure in any multirace wager.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 7

3:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Playing for Keeps owns the top rating and a legitimate case as the class of this six-furlong claimer, but with Rogues a Plotting carrying a 50% career win rate at 5/1, the trifecta could get very interesting.

win1Playing for KeepsML 3/1

Playing for Keeps (1) leads the field with an 87.08 TrackWiz rating and a 22% career win rate, which is solid in claiming company. Jockey Mauro Cedillo handles the mount for trainer Louis V. Ruberto Jr., and the 55 average speed figure is the highest in the entire eight-horse field — that raw speed matters enormously over a six-furlong trip. At 3/1 on the morning line, the market is aligned with our model, and this one looks like a legitimate single for win tickets.

place3Momma K's BoyML 5/2

Momma K's Boy (3) is a sharp play at 5/2 — a 32% career win rate for trainer Jeffrey A. Radosevich (who doubles up with Red Chips) with Jose A. Bracho in the irons. The 74.64 rating is a clear second in the field, and in exactas and trifectas, a horse that wins nearly one in three starts at a reasonable price is exactly the kind of runner you want underneath. This is a confident place selection.

show7Rogues a PlottingML 5/1

Rogues a Plotting (7) carries the most eye-catching career win rate in this field at 50% — winning half of all career starts is extraordinary at any level. Luis Raul Rivera rides for trainer Michael L. Rone at 5/1, and while the 72.09 rating trails the top two, a horse with this kind of closing percentage has a habit of showing up in the trifecta. Don't let the lower rating fool you — this runner's win percentage alone demands a spot on your ticket.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 8

4:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Truest Air sits atop the TrackWiz ratings in this 5½-furlong claimer but goes off at a generous 5/1, suggesting the public is overestimating a few lower-rated horses — a potential overlay situation worth pouncing on.

win7Truest AirML 5/1

Truest Air (7) posts the field's best TrackWiz rating at 84.17 and the field's best average speed figure at 54 — a combination that's hard to beat at five and a half furlongs on dirt. Luis Raul Rivera has been active all day for trainer Michael L. Rone, a barn with multiple runners on the card who clearly know the Thistledown oval. At 5/1 on the morning line for the top-rated horse in the field, this is a value situation — the crowd may be overreacting to the 2/1 and 5/2 morning-line horses.

place8GabadostML 5/2

Gabadost (8) rates at 74.8 — a solid second in the field — and shows up at 5/2 for trainer Christi Lynn Esposito with Bailey Weatherly up. A 7% career win rate is modest, but in a short sprint with compressed rating differences, it's the recent form cycle and overall rating that drives TrackWiz selections. Gabadost slots in cleanly behind Truest Air and should be included in all your exacta combinations.

show5TrustthefactML 2/1

Trustthefact (5) is the morning-line second choice at 2/1 with a 25% career win rate — the best in this particular field. Jefferson Skerrett gets the mount for trainer Susan D. Yoder, and that win percentage suggests a horse that consistently competes near the front. The 66.31 rating is third in the field, making this a solid show anchor, though our model suggests the public price is a touch too short given how much Truest Air and Gabadost stand out above.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

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Bottom line: Thistledown is serving up a wet, unpredictable afternoon and eight races worth of opportunity. Ed's Reward is our marquee free pick, Gapper offers value at a price in Race 1, and the premium side of the card has some genuinely interesting pace setups to exploit. Check out the full subscriber breakdown — including pace projections and exotic ticket structures — at TrackWiz Premium. Good luck out there, and watch that footing.

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