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Thistledown Picks & Predictions — July 28, 2026

July 28, 20268 racesAll Thistledown picks

This card ran on July 28, 2026.

Best bets at Thistledown, July 28, 2026

Race 15Pride and AttitudeML 5/212:50 PM EDT

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It's a pleasant Tuesday at Thistledown — 74°F, partly cloudy, and the kind of weather that keeps the dirt playing fair and fast. Eight races are on tap today, a mix of claiming and allowance company spread across distances ranging from a tight 5½ furlongs to a full mile. No rain in the picture means we're likely looking at a consistent surface all afternoon, which is good news for speed figures and pace projections holding their value.

The card is headlined by a pair of allowance spots — Race 2 and Race 7 — where the class of competition steps up noticeably from the claiming ranks surrounding them. Keep your eyes on those races if you're hunting for exacta and trifecta overlays. TrackWiz analysis has strong opinions on both.

Best Bets

Race 1

12:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Three horses are separated from the field by a significant rating gap in this one-mile dirt claimer, but the pace scenario over a route distance could shuffle the order at the wire.

win5Pride and AttitudeML 5/2

Pride and Attitude (No. 5) tops our TrackWiz ratings at 85.63 and lands in the mild-favorite zone at 5/2 on the morning line, which feels fair given the competition. The concern with a 7% career win rate is real — this horse doesn't win a ton — but the rating edge over the field is genuine, and trainer Joseph M. Poole puts Ricardo Feliciano up, a confident jockey booking at a mile. Speed figures (avg 52) are right in line with the pace of this field, meaning no wasted energy chasing or getting buried early.

place6Secret CallerML 5/1

Secret Caller (No. 6) is our place pick and arguably the most dangerous horse in the field to beat based on profile alone — an 18% career win rate is among the best here, and the TrackWiz rating of 84.17 trails only Pride and Attitude. Angel I. Diaz gets the call for trainer Nestor R. Rivera, and that combination has been active at this meet. At 5/1 on the morning line, Secret Caller offers real place value if the top selection gets into trouble late.

show2I Belong FirstML 7/2

I Belong First (No. 2) rounds out the TrackWiz top three at a 81.99 rating and posts a 16% career win percentage — which is above average for this field. Jose A. Bracho, a consistent presence at Thistledown, handles the riding duties for trainer Justin Radosevich. At 7/2, this isn't a big overlay, but the horse is consistent enough to land in the exotics at a manageable price.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

1:20 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

Whiskey Point looks like a clear class standout in this six-furlong allowance, but the question is whether the morning-line favorite delivers or creates value for the prices underneath.

win8Whiskey PointML 2/1

Whiskey Point (No. 8) carries the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 88.54 and is pegged as the 2/1 morning-line favorite — both indicators pointing the same direction. Trainer Kim A. Puhl sends out Luis Antonio Gonzalez, and the avg speed figure of 54 ties for the top mark in the race. In a six-furlong dirt sprint, a horse that already profiles as the fastest and most accomplished in the field is hard to fade, even at a short price.

place4Blake JamesML 5/1

Blake James (No. 4) is a clear second choice in our TrackWiz model at 74.54, a solid gap above the third-rated horse in this allowance. Trainer Shane Meyers puts Alexander Chavez up, and while the 10% career win rate isn't eye-popping, the 5/1 morning line represents fair value for a horse projecting solidly to hit the board. Blake James should be a fixture in exacta and trifecta tickets here.

show6NantucketML 4/1

Nantucket (No. 6) checks in at 53.93 on the TrackWiz scale and brings a 16% career win percentage, the second-best mark in the field. Trainer Marco Ccamaque has Erik Barbaran aboard, and at 4/1, Nantucket is a legitimate show option that also pops on trifecta bottoms. The avg speed of 53 is competitive for this distance, and if Whiskey Point draws clear early, Nantucket figures to be scrapping for the place and show spots.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Our three free previews today cover Races 1 through 3, and there's a nice through-line connecting them: all three are dirt sprints or route events where early pace shapes the outcome heavily. Pride and Attitude (Race 1, 5/2 morning line) earns an 85.63 TrackWiz rating going a flat mile in the opener — a score that suggests she's the most well-rounded horse in a claiming field that tends to flatten out late. In Race 2, Whiskey Point is our top-rated free pick of the day at 88.54, which is the highest rating among all free races on the card. At 2/1 on the morning line, he's not a screaming overlay, but that rating suggests he's legitimately the best horse in the allowance field. Then in Race 3, Spectacular Tango (7/2) gives us a slight value edge in the 5½-furlong claiming sprint — a touch of pace pressure in that race could set things up perfectly for a closer, and our model has him positioned exactly right.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

1:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Spectacular Tango sits atop a legitimate pace contentious field in this 5.5-furlong claimer, but Rock My Style's career win percentage makes this tighter than the ratings alone suggest.

win2Spectacular TangoML 7/2

Spectacular Tango (No. 2) leads all horses with a 86.35 TrackWiz rating and gets trainer David Wolochuk's call with Luis Raul Rivera in the irons. The avg speed of 53 is near the top of this field, and in a short 5.5-furlong dash, horses who have the speed figure advantage tend to carry it. A 16% career win rate is steady, and at 7/2, this is a horse worth keying on top in all your exotic plays.

place3Rock My StyleML 9/2

Rock My Style (No. 3) brings the best career win percentage in the entire race at 25%, which is a meaningful edge in a claiming field that tends to feature serial bridesmaids. Jose A. Bracho rides for trainer Jeffrey A. Radosevich, and the TrackWiz rating of 76.37 is a clear second in the field. At 9/2 on the morning line, there's a slight overlay here for a horse that wins at a higher rate than most of its rivals.

show1Calling TillieML 2/1

Calling Tillie (No. 1) is the lukewarm morning-line favorite at 2/1 but lands third in our TrackWiz ratings at 67.41, creating a spot where the public may be overrating her versus the top two. Trainer Justin Radosevich, who has multiple runners today, uses David J. Haldar and the 16% career win rate is respectable. At a short price she's a show hedge rather than a win single, but she's safe enough to include in trifecta construction.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 4

2:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Kozem and Holiday Lights figure to draw most of the handle in this one-mile claiming route, but Right Trappe lurks just off the pace as a potential spoiler at a sneaky price.

win6KozemML 4/1

Kozem (No. 6) tops our TrackWiz ratings at 85.62 and owns a 20% career win rate — a consistent performer who gets Humberto Haldar up for trainer Caryn Vecchio. The avg speed of 53 is second-best in the field, and over a mile, that combination of tactical speed and stamina gives Kozem a prime setup. At 4/1 on the morning line, there's fair value here for a horse the model clearly prefers.

place4Holiday LightsML 3/1

Holiday Lights (No. 4) is the morning-line favorite at 3/1 and isn't without a legitimate case — a 27% career win rate is the highest in this field, and the avg speed figure of 54 leads everyone. Trainer Saul M. Morales gives the mount to Brandon Tapara, a booking that signals confidence. The TrackWiz rating of 80.19 ranks second, making Holiday Lights a horse who probably belongs on the ticket even if our model slightly prefers Kozem on top.

show8Right TrappeML 9/2

Right Trappe (No. 8) rates third in our model at 74.36 and carries a 21% career win rate, a mark that suggests this horse knows how to finish. Luis Raul Rivera gets the call for trainer Michael L. Rone, and at 9/2, the morning line price is workable for show and trifecta use. With Kozem and Holiday Lights likely drawing the bulk of the action, Right Trappe should come back at fair odds if the top two set up a pace duel.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 5

2:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Dr. Zarnett and Rumble Strip Ron enter as a tight 1-2 at the top of the TrackWiz model, and with Mails Here lurking at 6/1, this 5.5-furlong claimer shapes up as a genuine tri-horse affair.

win7Dr. ZarnettML 5/2

Dr. Zarnett (No. 7) is the top-rated horse in this race at 86.83 and gets Chelsey Keiser aboard for trainer Shane Meyers. A 19% career win rate is solid for the claiming ranks, and the avg speed of 53 keeps this horse right in the thick of the pace flow at 5.5 furlongs. At 5/2 on the morning line, Dr. Zarnett is a deserving favorite and the horse to beat in our TrackWiz analysis.

place8Rumble Strip RonML 9/2

Rumble Strip Ron (No. 8) sits just behind at an 84.90 rating — essentially a dead heat with our top pick in terms of model confidence — and ships in at 9/2, a price that looks like mild value. Jefferson Skerrett rides for Gary L. Johnson, and the 13% career win rate is similar to Dr. Zarnett's profile. If there's any pace pressure early, Rumble Strip Ron is precisely the type who can capitalize in the final furlong.

show5Mails HereML 6/1

Mails Here (No. 5) is the third horse in our TrackWiz sequence at 80.46 and is worth including at 6/1. Trainer Rey Juarez-Mendoza puts Alexander Chavez up, and the 17% career win rate ties for second-best in this field. The avg speed of 54 is right there with the top two, which means Mails Here isn't simply a pace sacrifice — there's genuine finishing ability here at a price that's hard to leave off trifecta tickets.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 6

3:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Channel Fury's eye-catching 36% career win rate makes this one-mile claimer more straightforward than the crowded field suggests, though Eddie M and Rhythm 'n Blues have the ratings to challenge.

win6Channel FuryML 7/2

Channel Fury (No. 6) leads our TrackWiz ratings at 86.35 and, crucially, owns the best career win percentage in the field at 36% — that's a horse that converts opportunities into wins at a high clip. Trainer James R. Jackson puts Deshawn L. Parker up, and the avg speed of 53 is competitive for this class level at a mile. At 7/2, Channel Fury is the kind of profile TrackWiz loves: high rating, high win rate, and a price that hasn't been hammered to chalk.

place3Eddie MML 4/1

Eddie M (No. 3) comes in second in our ratings at 83.48 and brings a 28% career win rate, the second-best mark in the field — this is clearly a horse that competes to win, not just show up. Trainer Nestor R. Rivera gets Alexander Chavez, a capable hand, and at 4/1 on the morning line Eddie M is a logical place complement to Channel Fury. The avg speed of 52 is a hair below the top two, suggesting a closer's trip fits best.

show5Rhythm 'n BluesML 2/1

Rhythm 'n Blues (No. 5) is the morning-line favorite at 2/1, which means the public is higher on this one than our model — TrackWiz rates the horse third at 81.04. That said, a 23% career win rate and Luis Raul Rivera in the irons make this a horse you can't completely toss. At 2/1, the value isn't there for a win single, but as a show hedge in trifectas under Channel Fury and Eddie M, Rhythm 'n Blues is a reasonable safety net.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 7

3:50 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

Devil's Tower enters as the top-rated horse and a 39% career winner in a competitive allowance sprint, but Without Objection and Sweet as Sin make this a race where the trifecta could pay nicely.

win5Devil's TowerML 3/1

Devil's Tower (No. 5) tops the TrackWiz field at 87.08 and owns a 39% career win rate — that's an elite conversion figure that very few horses at any level sustain. Fernando Salazar Becerra rides for trainer Armando Hernandez, and the avg speed of 56 is second only to Honeyquist's 57 — giving this horse a strong chance to control or sit just off a contested early pace. At 3/1, Devil's Tower is a legitimate single in exotics.

place2Without ObjectionML 8/1

Without Objection (No. 2) is an interesting overlay in this allowance — the TrackWiz rating of 79.79 ranks second in the field, yet the morning line is 8/1, suggesting the public is sleeping on this horse. Trainer Kim A. Puhl gets Rocco Bowen up, and the avg speed of 55 is third-best in the field. A 28% career win rate underlines that this horse can finish the job, and if Without Objection hits the board at 8/1, the place payoff shapes up very nicely.

show6Sweet as SinML 4/1

Sweet as Sin (No. 6) rates third in our model at 79.31 — only one point behind Without Objection — and gets Luis Antonio Gonzalez for the Kim A. Puhl barn. At 4/1, this horse is priced closer to what TrackWiz thinks the true probability is, and a 27% career win rate backs up the idea that Sweet as Sin can compete in an allowance field. Trifecta players should note this horse's similar profile to Without Objection, making a two-headed Puhl barn attack a legitimate exotic angle.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 8

4:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Quick Recovery headlines a wide-open ten-horse claimer at six furlongs, with the field bunched closely enough that pace and trip will likely determine the finishing order.

win1Quick RecoveryML 7/2

Quick Recovery (No. 1) leads all horses in this field with an 86.35 TrackWiz rating — the same mark as Channel Fury in Race 6, calibrated against a slightly weaker overall field. Jose A. Bracho rides for trainer Jeffrey A. Radosevich, a barn that is well-represented on today's card. A 17% career win rate is solid, the avg speed of 54 is among the best in the race, and at 7/2 on the morning line, Quick Recovery represents genuine top-end value rather than a short-priced laydown.

place7Tizzy JojoML 9/2

Tizzy Jojo (No. 7) sits second in our ratings at 75.82 and gets Anthony Rodriguez in the irons for trainer Gary L. Johnson. At 9/2, this horse projects to be active in the early stages of a six-furlong sprint with an avg speed of 53, and the 13% career win rate suggests a horse that's competitive but tends to find the board more than the winner's circle — which is exactly what you want from a place pick. Include Tizzy Jojo underneath Quick Recovery in exactas.

show4Special BeachML 4/1

Special Beach (No. 4) and Airforce Lightning (No. 3) are virtually inseparable on TrackWiz metrics, but Special Beach edges it at 67.12 with an avg speed of 54 — the joint-best mark in the field alongside Quick Recovery. Jefferson Skerrett rides for trainer Joseph P. Mahan, and at 4/1, Special Beach is a natural third in trifecta construction. In a race this deep, don't leave this horse off your tickets.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

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Today at Thistledown, Whiskey Point in Race 2 is our marquee free play, and Devil's Tower in Race 7 is the premium race we're most excited about. Conditions are clean, the surface should be consistent, and there's real value to be found if you've done the homework. Full card analysis — pace projections, exotic angles, and all five premium races — is available to TrackWiz subscribers. Good luck out there, and bet smart.

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