Thistledown Picks & Predictions — July 28, 2026
It's a pleasant Tuesday at Thistledown — 74°F, partly cloudy, and the kind of weather that keeps the dirt playing fair and fast. Eight races are on tap today, a mix of claiming and allowance company spread across distances ranging from a tight 5½ furlongs to a full mile. No rain in the picture means we're likely looking at a consistent surface all afternoon, which is good news for speed figures and pace projections holding their value.
The card is headlined by a pair of allowance spots — Race 2 and Race 7 — where the class of competition steps up noticeably from the claiming ranks surrounding them. Keep your eyes on those races if you're hunting for exacta and trifecta overlays. TrackWiz analysis has strong opinions on both.
Best Bets
Race 1
Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt
Three horses are separated from the field by a significant rating gap in this one-mile dirt claimer, but the pace scenario over a route distance could shuffle the order at the wire.
Pride and Attitude (No. 5) tops our TrackWiz ratings at 85.63 and lands in the mild-favorite zone at 5/2 on the morning line, which feels fair given the competition. The concern with a 7% career win rate is real — this horse doesn't win a ton — but the rating edge over the field is genuine, and trainer Joseph M. Poole puts Ricardo Feliciano up, a confident jockey booking at a mile. Speed figures (avg 52) are right in line with the pace of this field, meaning no wasted energy chasing or getting buried early.
Secret Caller (No. 6) is our place pick and arguably the most dangerous horse in the field to beat based on profile alone — an 18% career win rate is among the best here, and the TrackWiz rating of 84.17 trails only Pride and Attitude. Angel I. Diaz gets the call for trainer Nestor R. Rivera, and that combination has been active at this meet. At 5/1 on the morning line, Secret Caller offers real place value if the top selection gets into trouble late.
I Belong First (No. 2) rounds out the TrackWiz top three at a 81.99 rating and posts a 16% career win percentage — which is above average for this field. Jose A. Bracho, a consistent presence at Thistledown, handles the riding duties for trainer Justin Radosevich. At 7/2, this isn't a big overlay, but the horse is consistent enough to land in the exotics at a manageable price.
Race 2
Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt
Whiskey Point looks like a clear class standout in this six-furlong allowance, but the question is whether the morning-line favorite delivers or creates value for the prices underneath.
Whiskey Point (No. 8) carries the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 88.54 and is pegged as the 2/1 morning-line favorite — both indicators pointing the same direction. Trainer Kim A. Puhl sends out Luis Antonio Gonzalez, and the avg speed figure of 54 ties for the top mark in the race. In a six-furlong dirt sprint, a horse that already profiles as the fastest and most accomplished in the field is hard to fade, even at a short price.
Blake James (No. 4) is a clear second choice in our TrackWiz model at 74.54, a solid gap above the third-rated horse in this allowance. Trainer Shane Meyers puts Alexander Chavez up, and while the 10% career win rate isn't eye-popping, the 5/1 morning line represents fair value for a horse projecting solidly to hit the board. Blake James should be a fixture in exacta and trifecta tickets here.
Nantucket (No. 6) checks in at 53.93 on the TrackWiz scale and brings a 16% career win percentage, the second-best mark in the field. Trainer Marco Ccamaque has Erik Barbaran aboard, and at 4/1, Nantucket is a legitimate show option that also pops on trifecta bottoms. The avg speed of 53 is competitive for this distance, and if Whiskey Point draws clear early, Nantucket figures to be scrapping for the place and show spots.
Race 3
Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt
Spectacular Tango sits atop a legitimate pace contentious field in this 5.5-furlong claimer, but Rock My Style's career win percentage makes this tighter than the ratings alone suggest.
Spectacular Tango (No. 2) leads all horses with a 86.35 TrackWiz rating and gets trainer David Wolochuk's call with Luis Raul Rivera in the irons. The avg speed of 53 is near the top of this field, and in a short 5.5-furlong dash, horses who have the speed figure advantage tend to carry it. A 16% career win rate is steady, and at 7/2, this is a horse worth keying on top in all your exotic plays.
Rock My Style (No. 3) brings the best career win percentage in the entire race at 25%, which is a meaningful edge in a claiming field that tends to feature serial bridesmaids. Jose A. Bracho rides for trainer Jeffrey A. Radosevich, and the TrackWiz rating of 76.37 is a clear second in the field. At 9/2 on the morning line, there's a slight overlay here for a horse that wins at a higher rate than most of its rivals.
Calling Tillie (No. 1) is the lukewarm morning-line favorite at 2/1 but lands third in our TrackWiz ratings at 67.41, creating a spot where the public may be overrating her versus the top two. Trainer Justin Radosevich, who has multiple runners today, uses David J. Haldar and the 16% career win rate is respectable. At a short price she's a show hedge rather than a win single, but she's safe enough to include in trifecta construction.
Our three free previews today cover Races 1 through 3, and there's a nice through-line connecting them: all three are dirt sprints or route events where early pace shapes the outcome heavily. Pride and Attitude (Race 1, 5/2 morning line) earns an 85.63 TrackWiz rating going a flat mile in the opener — a score that suggests she's the most well-rounded horse in a claiming field that tends to flatten out late. In Race 2, Whiskey Point is our top-rated free pick of the day at 88.54, which is the highest rating among all free races on the card. At 2/1 on the morning line, he's not a screaming overlay, but that rating suggests he's legitimately the best horse in the allowance field. Then in Race 3, Spectacular Tango (7/2) gives us a slight value edge in the 5½-furlong claiming sprint — a touch of pace pressure in that race could set things up perfectly for a closer, and our model has him positioned exactly right.
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Today at Thistledown, Whiskey Point in Race 2 is our marquee free play, and Devil's Tower in Race 7 is the premium race we're most excited about. Conditions are clean, the surface should be consistent, and there's real value to be found if you've done the homework. Full card analysis — pace projections, exotic angles, and all five premium races — is available to TrackWiz subscribers. Good luck out there, and bet smart.