Thistledown Picks & Predictions — July 7, 2026

Southern Dawn rates just a hair back at 58.33 and actually draws the shorter 2/1 morning line, which suggests the public may like her even slightly more than Empire Vybz in terms of win probability. Luis Raul Rivera pilots for trainer James R. Jackson, and in a five-horse field this tight, the margin between first and second could easily come down to a trip. She's more than capable of hitting the board and makes total sense underneath.

Jasper Valley is the only horse in this race with a recorded average speed figure (54), which is a meaningful data point when others are coming in without that benchmark. Trainer Timothy E. Hamm runs two horses here, showing confidence in his barn's readiness. At 3/1 with Rocco Bowen aboard, Jasper Valley is a logical third piece in any exotic structure — the top-rated horse is a solid show anchor in a five-horse maiden race.

Tricky Tiger rates at 71.93 — second best in the field — and comes in at 2/1 on the morning line, meaning the public actually installs him as the morning-line favorite. Trainer Nestor R. Rivera is double-entered today, showing barn confidence. Tricky Tiger's 12% career win rate is modest, but at 6 furlongs on dirt with a competitive speed figure, he's a logical horse to follow El Muchacho Alegre home and pick up the place check.

Go West owns the field's highest average speed figure at 55 alongside El Muchacho Alegre, and his 65.12 rating puts him clearly third in class. At 3/1, trainer Kim A. Puhl sends him out with Luis Antonio Gonzalez up. He's a horse who figures to be involved on or near the lead all the way around, and that pace positioning in a 6-furlong sprint gives him a real shot to hang on for third money.

Mas Que Nada rates 71.49 and actually owns the field's best average speed figure at 54 — a tick above Guns and Ships — which makes her intriguing on pure pace terms. Trainer Nestor R. Rivera saddles her with Alexander Chavez up, a solid combination. At 9/5 on the morning line, the public has installed her as the near-co-favorite, and in a route race where early pace can matter, she's the logical main threat to Guns and Ships.

Lao Way comes in at 5/1 morning line — the best price among our three picks — and rates at 50.6, which is modest but worth noting in a field where the bottom half of the field shows some serious gaps. Fernando Salazar Becerra gets the mount for trainer Joshua Langley. If the top two battle each other and tire, Lao Way is a horse who could pick up the pieces late at a mile — and the price makes her worth a small show investment in exotics.

Sharp Az Can Be at 8/5 is the public's choice for a reason — an 18% career win rate and a 76.01 rating make her a legitimate contender. Luis Alberto Batista is one of the more active riders at Thistledown and gives this horse a capable handler. Even if she gets beaten by Quick Recovery, she's likely to hit the board, and including her under the top pick in exactas makes sense.

Blazing Zenna rates 73.99 and sports an average speed figure of 54 that matches the top of this field. At 5/2 morning line with Fernando Salazar Becerra aboard for trainer Joseph P. Mahan, she's not without a win chance. In a race where we're questioning the favorite's value at 8/5, Blazing Zenna offers a middle-ground option — solid enough to hit the board but priced better than the chalk for exotics purposes.

Renewed rates 84.84 — just behind Spectacular Tango — and actually holds the field's best average speed figure at 53, which is a notable edge in a pure speed sprint. Ricardo Feliciano takes the mount for trainer Jevon D. Crumley, and while the 11% career win rate is the lowest among the top contenders, this horse's pace profile suggests she'll be competitive throughout. At 9/5, she's actually the morning-line favorite, making the place position feel almost conservative.

Tier Ones Legacy rates 62.1 — a meaningful step below the top two but a clear tier above the rest of the field. A 25% career win rate is genuinely impressive and among the best in this race, suggesting Kevin Gonzalez gets on a horse that knows how to compete. At 7/2, trainer Jeff Fletcher's runner is well-priced for what you're getting, and in exotics, he's the natural third leg of any trifecta structure behind the top pair.

Lowells Legacy rates a solid 79.01 — second best in the field — and draws Kevin Gonzalez from trainer Jeff Fletcher, a combination that appeared in Race 7 as well, showing the stable is active and engaged today. At 4/1, there's legitimate value here for a horse with a real rating edge over most of the field. In a ten-horse maiden route, finding a 4/1 shot with the second-best number is exactly the kind of place bet that pays dividends over time.

Rivers Run Fast draws program post 1 with Brandon Tapara up for trainer Richard J. Rettele, and rates at 62.81 — a clear step below the top two picks but well clear of the rest of the field. At 7/2 morning line, the price is fair for a horse with a 52 average speed in a mile race where stamina and positioning matter. In a big field with plenty of uncertainty, Rivers Run Fast is the kind of consistent mid-tier presence that sneaks into third money — a smart inclusion in trifecta and superfecta plays.