Daily Picks

Thistledown Picks & Predictions — June 29, 2026

Monday, June 29, 20268 racesThistledown

Clear skies and 85°F at Thistledown today — ideal conditions for a fast, front-runner-friendly strip. Eight races are on the board, all on dirt, and the card leans heavily claiming with one allowance closer to close things out in Race 8.

That kind of card might look routine on paper, but don't sleep on it. Claiming races at Thistledown can be volatile in the best way — horses dropping in class, trainers hunting easy spots, and pace scenarios that set up big payoffs if you know where to look. Today's card has all of that in play.

Our TrackWiz analysis has flagged several standouts worth building your tickets around, including a couple of prices that should give casual fans and serious grinders alike something to get excited about.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Three horses are bunched within two points at the top of the TrackWiz ratings in this 6-furlong dirt claimer, making this a genuine three-way battle at the wire — value hunters, take note.

win3Bo RunkleML 6/1

Bo Runkle tops the TrackWiz ratings at 82.71 in a race where the top three horses are separated by fewer than two points, so every edge matters. Trainer Manuel Vlaun sends him out with jockey Chelsey Keiser in the irons, and a 17% career win rate gives this runner a respectable foundation of consistency. His average speed figure of 53 matches the pack leaders, so he'll need to be at his best to hold off Crackle and Anotherhope. At 6/1 on the morning line, he offers real value if the TrackWiz number holds up at post time.

place6CrackleML 9/2

Crackle is the narrowest of margins behind Bo Runkle with an 81.26 rating, and trainer Khadeem Galloway has Luis Alberto Batista up — a combination worth watching in these lower-level claimers. His 16% career win rate is solid at this level, and his 53 average speed figure ties him with the top of this field. Even if he gets edged for the win, his profile screams top-two finisher.

show8AnotherhopeML 5/2

Anotherhope checks in at 80.94 on our ratings — the third member of this closely packed trio at the top — and brings an 18% career win rate that's the best of these three top picks. Trainer Shane Meyers keeps Luis Raul Rivera in the saddle, maintaining a familiar partnership. At 5/2 on the morning line, he's likely to be heavily bet, but his consistent speed figures (53 avg) make him a logical exotics anchor.

Race 2

5:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Thistle Queen looks like a standout in this 5½-furlong dirt claimer, but Castle Queen and Victoria Command figure to make her work for it — the exacta underneath could be where the real money lives.

win4Thistle QueenML 8/5

Thistle Queen is the class of this field with a TrackWiz rating of 89.12 — a significant gap over the second-rated Castle Queen at 66.90. Jockey Ricardo Feliciano teams up with trainer Joseph M. Poole, a combo to keep on your radar at Thistledown. Her 16% career win rate is respectable, and her 52 average speed figure ties her at the top of the speed column alongside Victoria Command. At 8/5 on the morning line, she's a deserving favorite, though bettors should expect a compressed payout.

place2Castle QueenML 9/5

Castle Queen enters with the second-best TrackWiz rating in the field at 66.90 and a standout 20% career win rate — the highest among all seven runners. Trainer Timothy E. Hamm keeps Fernando Salazar Becerra aboard, and that jockey is having a busy day at Thistledown. Her 51 average speed figure is just a tick off the leaders, which may cost her the win, but she profiles as a reliable place finisher.

show1Victoria CommandML 4/1

Victoria Command sits third in our ratings at 63.26 and matches Thistle Queen's 52 average speed figure, meaning she won't be embarrassed on pure pace. The concern is a 4% career win rate, which is the lowest among the top three picks here, so the show slot is the right way to play her. Trainer Rey Juarez-Mendoza and jockey Victor R. Fernandez will need a clean trip to get her in the exotics.

Race 3

5:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Man's Choice owns the top TrackWiz number AND the best speed figure in this 6-furlong claimer despite a morning line that says 9/2 — this could be a prime overlay opportunity if casual money piles onto the 2/1 favorite.

win5Man's ChoiceML 9/2

Man's Choice is our top-rated runner at 84.90 and flashes the highest average speed figure in the field at 54 — a genuine edge in a race where most horses are clustered at 52-53. Fernando Salazar Becerra picks up the mount for trainer Richard Zielinski, who also saddles Cannon Man in this same race, showing confidence by spreading across entries. A 6% career win rate is the one cautionary flag, but the speed and rating advantage are hard to dismiss at a potential overlay price of 9/2.

place4Dr. ZarnettML 2/1

Dr. Zarnett is the morning-line favorite at 2/1 with a solid 66.31 TrackWiz rating and an 18% career win rate that gives him legitimate credentials. Trainer Shane Meyers puts Chelsey Keiser in the irons — a partnership that's been active on today's card. His 52 average speed figure slightly trails Man's Choice, which is why we slot him second, but he's the most likely horse to run Man's Choice down if something goes wrong up front.

show3MutinyML 6/1

Mutiny rounds out the exotics at 58.36 on the TrackWiz scale and brings an 18% career win rate that matches Dr. Zarnett — the best rate of any horse in this race outside the top two picks. Trainer Ricardo Bailey sends him out with T. D. Houghton up, and a 53 average speed figure keeps him competitive on raw pace. At 6/1, he's a sneaky exotics inclusion if the pace sets up for a closer.

Three races are open to everyone today, and they make for a nice appetizer. Bo Runkle (Race 1, 6/1 ML) is our first headliner — a legitimate price in a six-furlong claiming sprint where the pace should set up perfectly for a closer. In Race 2, Thistle Queen (8/5 ML) comes in as a deserved favorite at 5½ furlongs and carries one of the stronger TrackWiz ratings on the card at 89.12. Race 3 gives us Man's Choice (9/2 ML), another solid play in a spot where the morning line suggests the market may be underestimating him.

With a fast, dry surface expected all day, early speed is worth respecting — but keep an eye on horses that have shown the ability to settle and pounce in the stretch. The six-furlong trips on this card tend to favor horses that can sit a length or two off the pace and unleash in the final panel.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Lil Bit and Over the Falls form a sharp one-two punch at the top of the ratings in this 5½-furlong claimer, and both carry a 22% career win rate — this race has the feel of a duel that could leave the rest of the field scrambling for third.

win6Lil BitML 9/5

Lil Bit tops the TrackWiz ratings at 88.83 — the highest mark of any horse on today's card through the first four races — and her 22% career win rate underscores a genuine knack for hitting the board. Trainer Robert M. Gorham sends Erik Barbaran to the gate, a combination worth following in short-price spots. The slight puzzle is a 50 average speed figure, which is actually the lowest among the top contenders, but our composite rating accounts for more than raw speed and clearly favors her overall profile.

place5Over the FallsML 2/1

Over the Falls is the natural complement to Lil Bit with an 84.20 TrackWiz rating and a matching 22% career win rate — and his 53 average speed figure is the best in the field. Trainer Justin Radosevich has Jose A. Bracho in the irons, and the combination of pace speed and a strong win percentage makes him a prime place threat. If anything disrupts Lil Bit's trip, this horse is poised to pounce.

show3Forever FlowingML 5/1

Forever Flowing sits third in our ratings at 51.05 with a 22% career win rate — matching the top two picks on that metric, which is notable. Trainer Richard Zielinski saddles her with Brandon Tapara up, and her 52 average speed figure puts her in the mix pace-wise. At 5/1 on the morning line, she's the best value option for the show slot in an exacta or trifecta ticket.

Race 5

6:50 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

It's a maiden claiming sprint with a wide range of TrackWiz ratings — H F S Memories and Golden Haul sit well clear of the rest, but in maiden ranks, form can be flaky and upsets are never far away.

win6H F S MemoriesML 8/5

H F S Memories leads all runners with an 86.40 TrackWiz rating and draws the 8/5 morning-line favoritism that reflects public confidence as well. Trainer Michael L. Rone keeps Luis Raul Rivera in the irons, a consistent pairing on today's card. In a maiden event where no horse has yet won, our composite rating — which factors in more than just speed — gives H F S Memories a meaningful edge over the field, and a 51 average speed figure is competitive at this level.

place1Golden HaulML 9/2

Golden Haul is nearly as strong at 84.90 on our ratings and matches H F S Memories' 52 average speed figure, making this a legitimate pace battle between the top two. Trainer Nestor R. Rivera pairs with Fernando Salazar Becerra, who's one of the busiest jockeys on the Thistledown card today. At 9/2 on the morning line, Golden Haul represents a nice overlay in the exotics if the favorite gets any traffic.

show2My Baby BulletML 7/2

My Baby Bullet checks in at 69.58 — a clear step below the top two but well clear of the rest of the maiden field. Jerome J. Innis rides for trainer James R. Jackson, and a 52 average speed figure keeps her honest from a pace standpoint. At 7/2 on the morning line, she may be underpriced to win but is a sound exotics anchor for bettors looking to round out a trifecta key.

Race 6

7:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

I'll Figure It Out comes in with the highest TrackWiz rating in this mile claimer, but Smash and Coalminer's Kitten are close enough to complicate things — the one-turn mile at Thistledown can produce some surprising results.

win1I'll Figure It OutML 2/1

I'll Figure It Out tops the field at 88.54 on the TrackWiz scale and brings an elite 25% career win rate — one of the highest marks on the entire card today. The jockey-trainer combination of Jefferson Skerrett and Jeffrey Skerrett — a family connection — adds a level of communication and trust that can matter at the claiming level. His 53 average speed figure is mid-pack, but in a one-mile race, fitness and tactical intelligence often outweigh raw sprint speed, and the ratings strongly favor him here.

place5SmashML 3/1

Smash sits at 81.79 in our ratings and gives trainer Justine Eder another strong runner on the card with Angel I. Diaz up. A 17% career win rate is solid, and his 51 average speed figure suggests he'll be stalking the pace rather than leading — which in a one-mile race could be a tactical advantage. At 3/1 on the morning line, he's an honest price for a horse this well-rated.

show6Coalminer's KittenML 4/1

Coalminer's Kitten is fascinating — she posts a 55 average speed figure that's the highest in this entire seven-horse field, yet she checks in third in our composite ratings at 72.39. Trainer Rodney C. Faulkner has David J. Haldar up, and a 25% career win rate (tied with the favorite) shows she knows how to seal the deal. At 4/1, she's worth a long look in the exotics, and if the pace collapses, her raw speed figures could make her dangerous all the way to the wire.

Race 7

7:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

He's My Boy and Beat the Buzzer are rated 1-2 but separated by 5½ points in this 6-furlong claimer — and don't sleep on Affair to Remember lurking at 15/1 with a rating nearly identical to Beat the Buzzer.

win3He's My BoyML 3/1

He's My Boy leads the TrackWiz ratings at 75.59 and gets trainer Rodney C. Faulkner, who also has Coalminer's Kitten in Race 6 — a good day for this barn if things go right. David J. Haldar is in the irons, and while the 5% career win rate is a yellow flag, our ratings account for consistency of performance beyond just wins, and the composite number here is clear. His 52 average speed figure is competitive, and if he gets a clean trip on the front end or just off the pace, he's the most likely winner.

place2Beat the BuzzerML 2/1

Beat the Buzzer is the morning-line favorite at 2/1, and there's a case to be made — his 70.06 TrackWiz rating is second-best, and trainer Robert M. Gorham keeps Erik Barbaran aboard, a combination that also has Lil Bit in Race 4. A 10% career win rate is modest, but at 2/1 the public clearly sees him as competitive, and his 52 average speed figure matches He's My Boy stride for stride. He's likely to be right there at the wire.

show6Affair to RememberML 15/1

Affair to Remember is the value play in this race — a 69.58 TrackWiz rating that is virtually identical to Beat the Buzzer's 70.06, yet he's listed at 15/1 on the morning line. That's a massive discrepancy between perceived and calculated value, and TrackWiz analysis flags it as an underlay on the favorite and an overlay on this one. Trainer Richard L. Genovese has Noel Vigil up, and a 53 average speed figure is the best in the field — if he gets loose on the lead or a soft pace sets up, he could shock at a big number.

Race 8

8:20 PM EDT

Allowance · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

This 5½-furlong allowance features a genuine overlay angle — Picaro tops our TrackWiz ratings at 8/1 on the morning line while the morning-line favorite Invictus sits well below him in the numbers, setting up a potential prime value spot.

win2PicaroML 8/1

Picaro is our top-rated runner in Race 8 at 79.79 yet goes off at 8/1 on the morning line — that's the kind of disconnect TrackWiz analysis lives for. Trainer Rey Juarez-Mendoza sends him out with Alexander Chavez up, and a 55 average speed figure is second-best in the field behind only Invictus's 56. In an allowance field where class matters, a 7% career win rate is the one concern, but the rating edge over the morning-line favorite is substantial and hard to ignore at this price.

place5Saving HeartML 7/2

Saving Heart sits second in our ratings at 73.98 and brings a 16% career win rate that's one of the better marks in this allowance field. Trainer Kim A. Puhl has two entries in this race (also Mellifluous), and Jefferson Skerrett — who rode I'll Figure It Out in Race 6 — takes the call here. A 55 average speed figure ties her for second in the field, and at 7/2 she's a reasonable price for a horse firmly in the mix.

show6Drury LaneML 4/1

Drury Lane rounds out the exotics at a 71.00 TrackWiz rating with an 18% career win rate — the highest among our three picks in this race and a mark that says she consistently fires her best effort. Trainer Jeffrey A. Radosevich sends her out with Luis Raul Rivera up, who has been active throughout the Thistledown card. Her 54 average speed figure is right in the middle of this field, and at 4/1 she's an honest price to land in the exacta.

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Bottom line: Thistledown is putting out a clean, fast eight-race card today under ideal weather, and TrackWiz has identified multiple angles worth attacking — from Bo Runkle's value price in Race 1 to Picaro's longshot appeal closing out the card in Race 8. The free picks are a strong starting point, but the real edge is in the full-card analysis available to subscribers. Head to TrackWiz Premium and make today count.

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