Daily Picks

Thistledown Picks & Predictions — May 25, 2026

Monday, May 25, 20268 racesThistledown

Happy Memorial Day Monday at Thistledown. Eight races are on the board this afternoon under partly cloudy skies and a comfortable 67°F — about as good as it gets for a late-May holiday card in northeast Ohio. The track is playing fast, and with all eight races going 6 furlongs on the dirt, pace scenarios and early speed are going to be the story all day long.

It's a compact but action-packed card that mixes Allowance openers, a Maiden Claiming second, and a string of Claiming and Starter Optional Claiming battles through the backend. Whether you're here for a casual holiday flutter or building multi-race tickets, there's plenty to dig into. TrackWiz has you covered with free analysis on the first three races and full-card premium breakdowns for subscribers.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:50 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

The morning line favorite gets bypassed here — TrackWiz analysis points to a standout rating gap that makes this allowance opener less competitive than it looks on the surface.

win4Right On the MunnyML 9/2

Right On the Munny posts the field's top TrackWiz rating at 84.9, a significant margin above the second-best horse in the field. That 44% career win rate is elite at this level — nearly half the time this horse has shown up, it's left the track a winner. Rocco Bowen takes the mount, and the 9/2 morning line looks like a gift given how lopsided the ratings are. This is our strongest play in Race 1.

place5Private MomentML 7/2

Private Moment comes in at 7/2 on the morning line with a 65.49 rating — third-best in the field but a solid step up from the lower tier. A 26% career win rate suggests consistency without dominance, which is exactly the profile you want in a place spot. David Haldar rides, and this horse figures to be competitive enough in a pace scenario to secure a check.

show1Playing for KeepsML 6/1

Playing for Keeps at 6/1 offers some exotic appeal as our show selection. The 61.03 rating ranks fourth in the field, but Mauro Cedillo is a reliable hand and this horse's 21% win rate says it knows how to compete. At 6/1 projected odds, threading it into trifecta combos makes sense.

Race 2

5:20 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A wide-open maiden claimer where nobody has broken their maiden yet, but one horse carries a rating that towers over the rest of the field — this one has a clear favorite role despite the morning line.

win2Goldie GloryML 9/5

Goldie Glory is the standout in this maiden claimer with an 88.83 TrackWiz rating — more than 20 points clear of Golden Haul in second. Posted at 9/5 on the morning line, the public already knows. Jefferson Skerrett pilots for trainer Jeffrey Skerrett, a barn-jockey combination that's worth noting in any race. Average speed figure of 53 tops the field, and this horse shapes up as the one to beat in a field of first-time maiden breakers.

place5Golden HaulML 3/1

Golden Haul hits the board as our place pick with a 66.19 rating and an average speed of 52 — tied for second-best in the field alongside Justworthashot and Seyval Blanc. Carlos Martinez gets the call for trainer Nestor R. Rivera, and the 3/1 morning line reflects legitimate public support. In a maiden race with lots of unknowns, Golden Haul's profile suggests enough class to earn a place finish.

show4JustworthashotML 10/1

Justworthashot is the sneaky value in this field at 10/1 on the morning line. A 64.64 TrackWiz rating actually outranks the 3/1 morning line shot Golden Haul, which tells you this horse might be undervalued in the wagering pools. Victor Fernandez rides for Rey Juarez-Mendoza, and this kind of overlay — strong rating, long odds — is exactly what TrackWiz is built to surface. Worth including in trifectas at that price.

Race 3

5:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A two-horse show shaping up on the numbers, with a clear class standout at short odds and a capable second choice — the rest of the field is a significant drop in quality.

win2Over the FallsML 8/5

Over the Falls enters this claiming race with a dominant 89.12 TrackWiz rating — the highest of any horse in this field by a comfortable margin. Jose Bracho takes the mount for trainer Justin Radosevich, and the 8/5 morning line accurately reflects how much better this horse profiles than its competition. A 14% career win rate in claiming ranks might seem modest, but paired with that rating and an average speed of 52, this horse has the tools to wire the field.

place5Princess EmML 7/2

Princess Em is our place pick at 7/2, carrying a solid 68.98 rating and matching Over the Falls with an average speed of 52. The 3% career win rate raises an eyebrow, but this is a horse that's been competitive without closing the deal — the right pace scenario could finally get her home. Anthony Rodriguez rides for Susan Yoder, and at 7/2, there's enough value to include in exactas beneath Over the Falls.

show6Mamma in the CloudML 9/5

Mamma in the Cloud brings a 20% career win rate to the table — by far the best in this field — along with a 63.62 rating that keeps her relevant in the show discussion. Mauro Cedillo rides for Megan Fadlovich, and a horse that's been winning at a 20% clip at this level isn't going to get buried on talent alone. She figures as a live piece at 9/5 for exotics even if she can't quite match the top two on the ratings.

The first three races give us a nice cross-section of today's card, and a clear theme emerges: horses with the cleanest speed figures and the ability to settle near the pace — not necessarily on the lead — look well-positioned on a track where the rail has been neutral to slightly speed-favoring in recent programs. Keep that in mind as you read through.

Right On the Munny kicks things off at a juicy 9/2 morning line in the opening Allowance, earning an 84.9 TrackWiz rating that stands out in what shapes up as a winnable spot. Goldie Glory follows in Race 2 as a morning-line favorite in the Maiden Claiming at 9/5 — that 88.83 rating is the highest of the free trio and commands respect. Then Over the Falls closes out the free races in Race 3 with an 89.12 rating, the top mark of any horse in today's entire free offering, at a surprisingly fair 8/5 on the morning line. Three solid plays, three different price levels — something for every approach.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:20 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A tightly bunched trio at the top of the ratings makes this starter optional claimer one of the toughest calls on the card — three horses within four points of each other, all at viable prices.

win6Absolute MiracleML 8/5

Absolute Miracle tops our rankings with an 88.11 TrackWiz rating and draws the 8/5 morning line favorite role for good reason. Jefferson Skerrett rides for trainer Jeffrey Skerrett — a barn that's already sending out multiple horses today — and a 21% career win rate anchors the confidence here. Average speed of 53 matches the best in the field, and in a race where the top three are bunched this tightly, the edge goes to the horse with the sharpest rating.

place2Holiday LightsML 4/1

Holiday Lights is just a tick behind at 85.62 with a career win rate of 26% — the best in this field — and that's a meaningful edge in a race like this. Alexander Chavez gets the mount for Saul Morales, and with an average speed of 53 matching the top tier, this horse isn't just a place filler — she's a legitimate threat to win. At 4/1, she represents solid exacta value underneath Absolute Miracle.

show1Chess Not CheckersML 3/1

Chess Not Checkers rounds out the top three with an 85.05 rating that's barely a point behind Holiday Lights. Joshua Radosevich rides for Jeffrey Radosevich — a trainer that also has Dreaming of Audrey in this race — and a 53 average speed keeps this horse in every pace scenario. At 3/1, the morning line almost undersells the rating, and trifecta players should treat all three of our top picks as interchangeable based on price.

Race 5

6:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

The morning line favorite doesn't match up on the TrackWiz numbers here — a couple of live overlays could make this claiming race a prime betting opportunity if the public loads up on the wrong horse.

win1Frosty PawsML 5/1

Frosty Paws is our top pick at 5/1 despite sitting fourth on the morning line — that's the kind of value gap TrackWiz analysis is designed to find. An 84.17 rating leads all comers, and Luis Alberto Batista takes the call for Craig Sweeting. Average speed of 55 is tied for best in the field, and a 19% career win rate says this horse competes at the top of every field it enters. The 5/1 price is real value if the public is leaning elsewhere.

place3QuarantinoML 6/1

Quarantino comes in at 6/1 with a 77.17 rating and a 16% career win rate for the Jeffrey Skerrett barn. The average speed of 51 is a bit off the pace leaders, but Jefferson Skerrett is aboard and this horse has shown enough consistency to figure in the place spot. If the pace up front gets hot between the speed horses, a closer like Quarantino is perfectly set up to collect.

show4Stormin'unclejackML 2/1

Stormin'unclejack is the 2/1 morning line choice and gets our show spot on the strength of a 23% career win rate — best in the field — and an average speed of 54 that's legitimate. Erik Barbaran rides for Rodney Faulkner, and while the 71.23 rating ranks him third behind Frosty Paws and Quarantino, win percentage alone keeps him in the picture. At 2/1 he's likely overbet, but he'll pick up a check more often than not.

Race 6

7:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

The morning line favorite and our top-rated horse are not the same animal here — that split creates real betting value if you trust the numbers over the public's early money.

win6Driven for SuccessML 4/1

Driven for Success carries the field's highest TrackWiz rating at 85.62 and checks in at 4/1 on the morning line — a notable overlay against a 2/1 morning line favorite that rates lower. A 20% career win rate is solid for a claiming horse, and Luis Raul Rivera rides for the Jeffrey Radosevich barn, which is sending out multiple horses today. Average speed of 54 matches Salute the Kid and Shez Shacked Up, but the rating edge is significant enough to make this our top selection.

place5Shez Shacked UpML 2/1

Shez Shacked Up drew the 2/1 morning line but rates a tick below Driven for Success at 65.76 — still a quality number. Jefferson Skerrett is in the irons for the Jeffrey Skerrett stable, a combination that's proven productive throughout this card. A 15% career win rate and average speed of 53 suggest enough ability to hit the board even if the rating plays second fiddle to our top pick.

show2Lady FortuneML 8/1

Lady Fortune is a genuine longshot angle at 8/1 morning line with a 62.01 rating that honestly keeps her closer to the conversation than her odds suggest. Victor Fernandez rides for Richard Zielinski, and a 15% career win rate in this company tells you she's been competitive. At 8/1, she's a natural inclusion in trifecta exotics as a deep closer if the pace scenario sets up right.

Race 7

7:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Two horses at the top of the ratings are separated by less than a point, while the morning line favorite falls a full ten points behind them — the public money and the numbers aren't telling the same story.

win2ElopedatthederbyML 3/1

Elopedatthederby leads all horses with an 86.22 TrackWiz rating and lands at 3/1 on the morning line — very fair value given the numbers. Victor Fernandez rides for Robert Cline, and a 15% career win rate is respectable in this field. Average speed of 51 is a touch off the top, but the rating suggests this horse outperforms that figure when it matters, and 3/1 is an honest price for the best horse in the race.

place4Stick AroundML 4/1

Stick Around is separated from our win pick by just 0.6 rating points at 85.62 — effectively a dead heat on the numbers. Alexander Chavez pilots for Saul Morales, and the 4/1 morning line is legitimate overlay territory when you factor in the near-identical profile to the top horse. Average speed of 53 is actually better than Elopedatthederby's 51, which adds another layer to the case for exacta plays involving these two.

show1My Kinda PartyML 9/5

My Kinda Party comes in as the 9/5 morning line choice despite rating a full nine points below Elopedatthederby — that's a significant gap the public may be overlooking. Fernando Salazar Becerra rides for Robert Gorham, and the 77.58 rating is legitimately third-best in the field. A 12% career win rate suggests modest winning habits, but average speed of 53 keeps this horse competitive, and the morning line price makes it worth including in trifecta and exacta wheels.

Race 8

8:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

The 2/1 morning line choice rates well below several horses at bigger prices in this wide-open claimer — expect some wagering chaos and an overlay or two worth targeting.

win4Scary PropositionML 6/1

Scary Proposition is our top pick at 6/1 morning line with an 82.71 TrackWiz rating that tops this field by more than seven points. Angel Diaz rides for Justine Eder, and a 14% career win rate is mid-range for this company, but the rating separation is the story here. Average speed of 54 ties her with Miss Classified for the field's best, and at 6/1, this is a genuine value play against a morning line favorite that trails badly on the numbers.

place6Tall GirlML 9/2

Tall Girl brings a 75.50 rating and a 13% career win rate into this eight-horse field, giving her a clear edge over the public's top choice. Fernando Salazar Becerra takes the mount for Ivan Calderon, and average speed of 52 is a tick off the leaders — but in a pace-honest race, a stalker's profile could be ideal. At 9/2, she's a natural pairing with Scary Proposition in exactas.

show1Here Kitty KittyML 5/2

Here Kitty Kitty rounds out our trifecta at 5/2 morning line — she'll likely be overbet, but the 71.49 rating justifies at least some inclusion. Carlos Martinez rides for Nestor Rivera, and average speed of 52 matches Tall Girl. A 12% career win rate is modest, but this horse profiles as the kind of consistent claimer that finds a way to grab a check even when not at peak form. Cover her in trifecta tickets and move on.

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A crisp holiday afternoon, a fast Thistledown strip, and eight 6-furlong dirt sprints — the setup is clean and the opportunities are real. Right On the Munny, Goldie Glory, and Over the Falls headline our free plays, while Absolute Miracle, Frosty Paws, Driven for Success, Elopedatthederby, and Scary Proposition round out the full-card analysis for subscribers. Good luck out there, and remember — the best bet you can make is an informed one.

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