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Free Saratoga Picks & Predictions — August 20, 2026

August 20, 20268 racesAll Saratoga picks

The Spa is open for business on a comfortable Thursday afternoon — 78°F, cloud cover keeping the heat in check, and conditions that set up beautifully for both dirt and turf runners. Eight races are on the slate today, and this card has some genuine intrigue from the first post to the finale.

The turf courses have been playing well lately, and with three of today's eight races run on the green, pace scenarios and surface preferences are going to do a lot of the heavy lifting in your handicapping. Meanwhile, the maiden ranks are crowded — four of the eight races feature first-time winners or repeat maidens — so there's real opportunity for sharp players to find overlays the crowd sleeps on.

TrackWiz has full analysis across all eight races. Three are available free to everyone, and five are unlocked for premium subscribers — including the turf stakes in Race 7 and a spicy Allowance Optional Claiming mile that looks wide open on paper.

3 Free Races at Saratoga

Race 1

5:10 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A maiden claiming mile on the dirt where the Linda Rice barn holds a two-horse stranglehold at the top of the market — but the TrackWiz ratings say there's a clear pecking order even within her own stable.

win5Jayme's TurnML 3/1

Jayme's Turn (#5) tops our ratings with an 86.38 — that's the highest mark in the field and nearly 10 points clear of the next-closest horse. Trained by Linda Rice and piloted by Dylan Davis, she carries the best average speed figure in the race at 55. In a maiden field where nobody has broken their maiden yet, that edge in both raw speed and overall rating makes her the logical top choice at a fair 3/1 morning line.

place3Ms Nikki DML 6/1

Ms Nikki D (#3) is the most interesting non-Rice horse in the field, posting a 63.26 TrackWiz rating that slots her firmly between the two favorites. Edgard Zayas takes the mount, and at 6/1 she offers real each-way value if Jayme's Turn gets into any kind of trouble on the front end. Her avg speed of 53 is middle of the pack, but her overall rating suggests more upside than that raw number implies.

show6OathML 9/5

Stablemate Oath (#6) is the morning line favorite at 9/5 with Manuel Franco up, but our rating of 58.67 actually places her third in the field behind both of our top two selections. She's not a bad horse — Franco is a savvy pilot — but the rating gap between her and Jayme's Turn is significant enough that we're using her underneath in exotics rather than on top.

Race 2

5:44 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

A turf sprint claiming race with two horses — Tamino and Light Fantastic — rated significantly above the rest of the field, setting up a fascinating head-to-head battle at the top while the rest scramble for minor spoils.

win8TaminoML 7/2

Tamino (#8, 7/2) is our top-rated horse in this race at 86.35 — a full six points clear of Light Fantastic and nearly 13 points ahead of third-best Armet. Kendrick Carmouche gets the call for trainer Kinnon LaRose, and while the 14% career win rate is modest, the rating dominance here is hard to ignore. In a 5.5-furlong turf sprint at the claiming level, a horse who grades out this cleanly on our model has to be considered the value play even at less than 4/1.

place6Light FantasticML 3/1

Light Fantastic (#6) has everything you want in a place horse: a 79.95 rating, a 25% career win percentage, and Manuel Franco in the irons for Brad Cox — one of the top trainer-jockey combos in the country. She's the 3/1 morning line choice and likely to attract serious money, but our model likes Tamino slightly more on the numbers. Use her confidently in exactas and underneath in trifectas.

show4ArmetML 4/1

Armet (#4) brings a 25% career win rate — tied for the field's best — and Jose Ortiz aboard for the powerful Steve Asmussen stable. The 73.55 rating is third-best in the field, and at 4/1 he's not being dismissed by the morning line maker either. He's the right horse to round out your exotics given the trainer-jockey firepower backing him.

Race 3

6:19 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A maiden claiming sprint on the dirt where the morning line features two heavy hitters — Max O Nidas and Maddenbleu — and the question is whether the Asmussen/Ortiz machine can justify the short price in a tricky first-time starter scenario.

win3Max O NidasML 8/5

Max O Nidas (#3) is our top-rated horse at 59.0, installed as the 8/5 morning line favorite with Jose Ortiz in the irons for Steve Asmussen. Asmussen is one of the premier trainers in the game and Ortiz is perennially among the top jockeys at Saratoga — this is as powerful a horse-trainer-jockey combination as you'll find in a maiden claimer. No avg speed figure is listed, suggesting he's working toward a debut or returns off a layoff, but the overall rating and connections justify the short price.

place6MaddenbleuML 5/2

Maddenbleu (#6) is a fascinating second choice at 5/2 with Manuel Franco taking the mount for Linda Rice. The 57.5 rating is within striking distance of the favorite, and Rice has been one of the most active trainers at Saratoga for years. No avg speed listed here either, which means we're betting on upside — but at 5/2 with Franco doing the driving, she belongs in your exotics.

show4ParkridgeML 4/1

Parkridge (#4) checks in at 55.0 on the TrackWiz scale and holds a 53 average speed figure — the best recorded number among horses who have actually seen the track in this field. Jose Lezcano rides for Hall of Famer Bill Mott, which is always a connection worth noting. At 4/1, he offers solid show value and could outrun that morning line if the pace sets up kindly.

Our three free picks today give you a solid foundation to work from. Jayme's Turn opens the card in a one-mile maiden claimer on dirt — a route trip that should help sort out who actually wants to run. Over on the turf in Race 2, Tamino brings one of the highest TrackWiz ratings on the entire card (86.35) into a sprint claiming affair, and that number is tough to ignore at a morning line of 7/2. Then Race 3 brings us back to the dirt for a six-furlong maiden claimer where Max O Nidas draws the favorite's spotlight at 8/5.

The thread connecting these three free races? None of them project as runaway favorites — morning lines of 3/1, 7/2, and 8/5 suggest competitive fields where finding the right contender matters more than blindly backing the chalk. Tamino stands out as the most compelling of the trio based on our ratings, but all three offer something worth examining before you head to the windows.

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Race 4

6:54 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

A Maiden Special Weight sprint on the dirt — the classiest maiden conditions on the card — where the Chad Brown and George Weaver stables go to war at the top of the market with razor-thin separation in the ratings.

win4Cash BurnML 8/5

Cash Burn (#4) is our top pick, rated 59.0 and sent out by Chad Brown with Flavien Prat up — a combination that routinely terrorizes maiden fields at Saratoga. Brown's win percentage in maiden special weight events is consistently elite, and Prat has been one of the meet's most effective pilots. No prior speed figures on record suggests this is a debut runner, but with these connections, that debut is likely to be a polished one.

place2Dry DrasticML 2/1

Dry Drastic (#2) is the 2/1 morning line second choice, rating 58.33 — just a hair below Cash Burn — with Hall of Famer John Velazquez aboard for George Weaver. JohnnyV on a Weaver horse in a prestigious maiden race at Saratoga is a combo that demands respect. The razor-thin gap between these two at the top of our model means Dry Drastic is a legitimate contender to finish on top, and she's a must-use in exactas.

show5Secret ConnectionML 5/1

Secret Connection (#5) is the only horse in this race with a recorded average speed figure — 53 — which at least gives us some tangible evidence of ability. Manuel Franco takes the mount for Jeremiah Englehart, and at 5/1 there's genuine each-way value here if the two favorites beat each other up on the front end. The 53.33 TrackWiz rating is a step below the top pair, but not so far back that she can't sneak onto the board.

Race 5

7:29 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

A wide-open turf maiden claimer that looks like a two-horse market on paper — No Compromise at 4/5 and Deported at 8/5 — but our ratings say the real standout is a horse the morning line has dramatically underestimated.

win4Ink LiesML 4/1

Ink Lies (#4) is the most compelling horse on the entire card today with a 85.62 TrackWiz rating — the highest in this field by a significant margin. Wesley Ward saddles her with Katie Davis up, and Ward is an elite conditioner of young turf sprinters, particularly at short distances. Her 57 average speed figure leads all horses with recorded figures in the race, and at 4/1 she represents the kind of overlay that serious bettors live for when the morning line undervalues a horse this dominant on the ratings.

place3OligarchML 5/1

Oligarch (#3) is an intriguing second choice at 5/1, rated 70.46 — a full 15 points above the morning line favorite No Compromise. Edgard Zayas is a capable pilot who gets results at this level, and the 54 average speed figure is respectable for a 5.5-furlong turf sprint. If Ink Lies is the overlay win play, Oligarch makes for an excellent exacta partner at a price.

show10No CompromiseML 4/5

No Compromise (#10) is the public's choice at 4/5 with Flavien Prat riding for George Weaver, and while our model rates her third at 60.0, she's clearly a horse of ability. A 56 average speed figure is solid, and Weaver-Prat is a dangerous duo at any price. We have her underneath in our picks — she's too short to go on top given how we see the race — but she's a legitimate contender to hit the board.

Race 6

8:04 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

An allowance optional claiming mile on the dirt where one horse stands well above the field in the ratings — making this more of a 'how do we play underneath' race than a genuine puzzle at the top.

win2ValtellinaML EVN

Valtellina (#2) is our top-rated horse in this field at a commanding 90.0 — nine points clear of Princess Becca and nearly 17 points above Sweetest Princess. Dylan Davis rides for Raymond Handal, and Valtellina's 26% career win rate confirms she converts when it matters. Installed as the even-money morning line favorite, the price won't be pretty, but when a horse rates this cleanly above an allowance field, you're picking spots to bet her rather than reasons to fade her.

place6Princess BeccaML 7/2

Princess Becca (#6) is the most compelling place horse in the race, rated 80.22 with a 25% career win percentage — both of which represent genuine class. Jose Ortiz takes the mount for trainer Orlando Noda, and at 7/2 on the morning line, she offers legitimate value to hit the board. If anything beats Valtellina today, it's most likely this one.

show3Sweetest PrincessML 5/1

Sweetest Princess (#3) checks in at 73.43 on our scale with a 15% career win rate, and Jose Lezcano gives the Linda Rice trainee a dependable hand in the irons. At 5/1, she represents the best price among the legitimate top-three horses in this field, making her an attractive show play or a key in the trifecta. Her 53 average speed is level with most of the field, so she's not giving up anything on raw pace.

Race 7

8:39 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 mi · Turf

A turf mile stakes with genuine intrigue at the top — the 3/5 morning line chalk has a gaudy win rate but our model says there are three horses rated higher, including a 7/2 shot with the best overall score in the field.

win9Sunday BoyML 7/2

Sunday Boy (#9) tops our ratings at 86.35 — the highest mark in this stakes field — and Jose Ortiz gets the call for trainer James T. Ryerson. A 20% career win rate might look modest in a stakes race, but the 55 average speed figure and dominant TrackWiz score suggest he's been doing things right. At 7/2 in a field where the morning line favorite is nearly half that price, Sunday Boy is an excellent value if you trust the ratings over the tote.

place8Nessuna PaginaML 4/1

Nessuna Pagina (#8) carries an eye-catching 100% career win rate — undefeated in her career — and a 78.81 TrackWiz rating that places her second in this field. Kendrick Carmouche gets the mount for Paul Barrow, and the 56 average speed figure is the best recorded number among horses with figures in this race. A perfect record in stakes company warrants serious respect, and at 4/1 she might actually be the most interesting bet on the board.

show7JaxerML 5/2

Jaxer (#7) brings a 50% career win rate and a 68.21 rating — third best in the field — with Flavien Prat aboard for H. Graham Motion, who is one of the country's foremost turf horsemen. The 5/2 morning line puts him close to favoritism without the dominant rating to match, but with Motion conditioning and Prat steering, he's absolutely worth including in your exotics. A horse that wins half its races and is trained by Graham Motion on the turf needs to be on your ticket.

Race 8

9:14 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

A starter optional claiming turf sprint that looks like a two-horse battle at the top — Oklahoma Smoke and She's Got Will — with a field of capable veterans trying to find the board behind them.

win1Oklahoma SmokeML 4/1

Oklahoma Smoke (#1) leads our ratings at 85.62 and carries the most impressive career win percentage in the field at 50% — meaning she converts one out of every two starts. Flavien Prat takes the mount for trainer Adam Rice, a powerful combination at any level. At 4/1 morning line odds, she's the top pick on value and raw ability — a horse this efficient at winning doesn't need to be odds-on to be the right play.

place2She's Got WillML 3/1

She's Got Will (#2) is the natural backup at 78.18 and 3/1, with Manuel Franco riding for the always-dangerous Brad Cox barn. A 22% career win rate is solid for this level, and her 56 average speed figure is the second-highest recorded number in the field. Cox trains winners at nearly every circuit he visits, and Franco is one of the more reliable finishers in New York — this duo will have her in the right position turning for home.

show9From ScratchML 5/1

From Scratch (#9) rounds out our top three at a 66.61 rating, giving Jose Ortiz another live mount from the Asmussen stable. The 10% career win rate is modest, but at 5/1 the price compensates nicely, and Ortiz has a way of getting horses placed even when they're not the best horse in the field. She's the right show play in a race where the top two look fairly dominant — use her to round out trifecta boxes.

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Today's Saratoga card is worth your attention from gate to wire. Tamino is our most confident free selection, Sunday Boy headlines the premium slate in the stakes, and Valtellina's even-money tag in the AOC sets up a fascinating pace puzzle. Dig into the free races, then let TrackWiz's full-card analysis take you the rest of the way — see subscriber options here and good luck at the windows.

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