Daily Picks

Saratoga Picks & Predictions — July 16, 2026

Thursday, July 16, 20269 racesSaratoga

Clear skies, 83 degrees, and the Spa is buzzing — it's a perfect midsummer Thursday at Saratoga, and the nine-race card today gives us plenty to sink our teeth into. From a marathon turf stakes stretching nearly two and a half miles to a pair of maiden special weights on the dirt, there's a wide range of race types that reward sharp handicapping.

The turf courses are the story today. Five of the nine races are run on the grass, and with firm, fast conditions expected under the afternoon sun, pace scenarios are going to matter. Horses who can sit close without burning up early are going to have a significant edge over deep closers in this kind of heat and on a course that figures to favor tactical speed.

TrackWiz has crunched the full card and identified high-confidence plays in the free races and deeper value angles hiding in the premium slots. Let's get into it.

Best Bets

Race 1

5:10 PM EDT

Stakes · 2 3/8 mi · Turf

A marathon turf stakes at 2 3/8 miles that will separate stayers from pretenders — the pace scenario and class at the trip are everything here, and our ratings reveal a clear separation at the top.

win1Mr PercyML 9/2

Mr Percy draws the rail and tops our TrackWiz ratings at 84.9 — a significant gap over the rest of the field at a grueling 2 3/8 miles where superior class tends to prevail. Graham Watters knows how to settle a horse in a true staying test, and getting the fence at this distance is a meaningful advantage. At 9/2 on the morning line, there's genuine value in a horse that grades out this cleanly over a stakes field. The distance alone will sort out pretenders, and Mr Percy profiles as a legitimate stayer worth anchoring your exotics around.

place3Cyber NinjaML 7/2

Cyber Ninja comes in with a 21% career win rate — one of the stronger strike rates in this field — and a TrackWiz rating of 76.88 that slots in comfortably as the second-best figure in the race. Trainer Jack Fisher has shown an eye for placing horses at the right distance, and at 7/2 on the morning line, Cyber Ninja should be live for a piece late in this marathon. A horse that wins one in five starts for life is rarely running empty.

show6Famous Figure (IRE)ML 2/1

Famous Figure (IRE) is the morning-line favorite at 2/1 and carries an eye-catching 100% career win rate — unbeaten on record, which demands respect regardless of how limited the sample may be. The Irish suffix hints at a European pedigree that often translates well at classic staying distances on turf. Trainer Richard J. Hendriks saddles both this horse and Lynches Knock, which can sometimes signal stable confidence in the stablemate, but Famous Figure's unbeaten mark keeps it firmly in the exotic mix.

Race 2

5:48 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Dirt

A wide-open maiden special weight on the Saratoga dirt mile with no previous winners in the field — but the ratings are anything but even, with one horse standing well clear of the pack.

win4Irish GoodbyeML 5/2

Irish Goodbye is the standout in this maiden field, posting an 87.81 TrackWiz rating that towers over the rest — a full 29 points clear of the second-ranked horse. Trainer Brad H. Cox is one of the most respected conditioners in the sport when it comes to developing maidens, and Manuel Franco has proven himself a top finisher at Saratoga time and again. The 5/2 morning line feels like fair value given that rating edge, and a one-mile dirt sprint at the Spa suits a horse with this profile. This is our strongest confidence play of the early card.

place2Term PremiumML 2/1

Term Premium brings the second-best rating in the race at 58.33 and gets the coveted Flavien Prat-Chad C. Brown combination — a pairing that consistently fires at major meets. Both horses showed similar average speed figures in workouts, but the trainer-jockey edge gives Term Premium a legitimate place profile at 2/1 on the morning line. If Irish Goodbye gets first run, Term Premium has the class to hold for the runner-up spot.

show6In Front RunnerML 4/1

In Front Runner rates third in the field at 55.0 and draws Jose L. Ortiz, who ranks among the top jockeys at Saratoga summer after summer. Trainer Antonio Sano has a knack for developing horses at this level, and the 4/1 morning line offers mild overlay potential if this horse fires its best effort. Worth including in trifecta tickets as the logical third finisher.

Race 3

6:22 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

Three horses grade out within two points of each other at the top of our ratings in this seven-furlong dirt starter optional claimer — setting up a possible pace duel that could benefit a closer sneaking up late.

win6Lucky DudeML 3/1

Lucky Dude tops the TrackWiz ratings at 85.58 with a 19% career win rate and draws Kendrick Carmouche, a savvy Saratoga veteran who knows how to navigate traffic in sprint conditions. The 3/1 morning line is honest, not generous, but the rating edge is real — this horse grades out above both Princip and Tizmarkus in a race where fractions figure to be honest. Seven furlongs on dirt is a distance that rewards tactical versatility, and Lucky Dude's profile fits the conditions.

place9PrincipML 5/1

Princip is just a whisker behind at 84.17 and gets Irad Ortiz, Jr. in the irons — arguably the best rider in the country and a force at Saratoga every summer. A 16% career win rate is respectable in a claiming/optional spot, and at 5/1 on the morning line, there's legitimate overlay value here. If the pace scenario plays out with a fast early tempo from others, Princip could be sitting in perfect striking position.

show5TizmarkusML 5/2

Tizmarkus rates third overall at 83.69 with a standout 26% career win rate — the highest win percentage among the three top horses in this race. Ricardo Santana, Jr. is in the saddle for trainer James W. Ferraro, a combination worth noting in a race with a competitive pace setup. At 5/2, Tizmarkus is actually the shortest price of our top three, which means show-ticket value is modest, but don't overlook this one in exacta and trifecta plays.

Our three free best bets today span two surfaces and three very different race types — which is actually what makes them connect. Race 1 kicks things off with Mr Percy (morning line 9/2) in that unusual 2 3/8-mile turf stakes, where stamina and a clean trip are everything. If you've never bet a race this long, think of it as a chess match — positioning over the first mile wins it in the final quarter. Race 2 brings Irish Goodbye (5/2) into a one-mile maiden special weight on the dirt, where our TrackWiz rating of 87.81 leads the card among free-race picks. And Race 3 features Lucky Dude (3/1) in a seven-furlong starter optional claiming event on the dirt — a spot where pace dynamics heavily favor a presser who can control fractions without getting wired.

The throughline across these three? All three top picks project to be in good striking position at the top of the stretch rather than asking their riders to go wide and run through horses late. On a warm, dry day at Saratoga, that's the profile you want.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:56 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

A sprawling 12-horse maiden claiming field on the turf mile, and despite a stacked roster of big-barn trainers, one horse has separated itself significantly in our ratings — making this a prime spot to attack.

win1Arabian PowerML 7/2

Arabian Power draws the rail with a 86.35 TrackWiz rating — clear best in a field that features multiple Chad Brown runners and a Todd Pletcher entry. The Brad H. Cox-Irad Ortiz, Jr. pairing is one of the most formidable combinations in the game, and turf maiden races at Saratoga frequently see Cox-trained horses debut with sharp performances. At 7/2 on the morning line with the top figure in the race, Arabian Power is our anchor in this race. An average speed of 55 ties for the field's best and supports the rating.

place2AlgheroML 8/1

Alghero is one of three Chad Brown runners in the race, which always complicates the handicapping — but at 8/1, this one offers the best value of the Brown trio. Our rating of 62.93 is the second-best in the full field, and Flavien Prat, Brown's go-to pilot, gets the mount. In turf maiden races, Brown often wins with horses that needed a start or two to find their form, so the price is worth noting for exotic players.

show10Stream ItML 8/5

Stream It carries the morning-line favoritism at 8/5, which reflects the market's respect for the Linda Rice training operation in this spot. A 59.28 rating places this horse third in the field, and while the odds won't pay much to show, Stream It belongs in exacta and trifecta keys as a likely contender for a piece. The shorter price means win-ticket value is limited, but don't eliminate this horse from your combinations.

Race 5

7:30 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

One of the toughest puzzles on the card — a massive 16-horse maiden special weight field on the turf at 5 1/2 furlongs where every runner is winless and the ratings are compressed in a tight band.

win3All Star LeighML 7/2

All Star Leigh tops our pick selections with a 55.83 rating and draws Jose L. Ortiz for trainer Anthony W. Dutrow — a pairing with genuine Saratoga pedigree. In large maiden turf sprints, having a tactically versatile jockey like Ortiz is invaluable when navigating traffic through a 16-horse field. The 7/2 morning line makes this a near-favorite, and with no average speed figure available to drag down the projection, the rating stands on its own merits. In a chaos race, backing the most capable jockey-trainer combination is often the sharpest play.

place13ExtravaganzooML 4/1

Extravaganzoo rates at 55.0 — essentially dead-even with our win pick — and gets Tyler Gaffalione for George Weaver, a trainer who has shown excellent results in maiden turf sprints at the Spa. The 4/1 morning line offers a slight edge in value over the win pick, and an average speed of 53 confirms this horse has shown something in preparation. In a field this size, the place spot often comes down to which horse gets the cleanest trip, and Gaffalione is skilled at finding one on the turf.

show4J'ray's JewelML 9/2

J'ray's Jewel rates at 54.17 with Junior Alvarado in the irons for Hall of Famer Bill Mott — a stable that rarely wastes Saratoga starts on unprepared horses. The 9/2 morning line is workable, and Mott's meticulous preparation means this horse is likely ready to fire a big effort. With an average speed of 53, J'ray's Jewel has shown enough in the mornings to earn a spot in your trifecta plays in a wide-open sprint.

Race 6

8:04 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 1/8 mi · Dirt

Three horses break away from the pack in this maiden special weight at 1 1/8 miles on the dirt, with a sub-5/2 favorite and a pair of big-barn horses right behind — but the morning-line prices don't reflect the tight gap in our ratings.

win4Ati GirlML 5/2

Ati Girl tops the TrackWiz ratings at 86.65 with Irad Ortiz, Jr. aboard for the legendary Bill Mott — a combination that rarely shows up in a race without confidence. The 5/2 morning line is fair for the top-rated horse, and at 1 1/8 miles on dirt, Mott-trained horses that have shown average speeds of 53 in preparation often find another gear when the real money is on the line. This is a maiden race where class and preparation separate contenders, and Ati Girl checks both boxes.

place6Pippa AddsML 3/1

Pippa Adds is separated by less than a point from our win pick at 85.89 and gets Jose L. Ortiz for Todd Pletcher — one of the premier trainer-jockey tandems at Saratoga's summer meet. The 3/1 morning line reflects the market's awareness of this horse's potential, and an average speed of 55 is the best raw figure in the field. If the pace scenario sets up for a closer, Pippa Adds has the profile to sweep past the field in the final furlong.

show1Morning MenaceML 6/1

Morning Menace rates third at 82.71 and draws Flavien Prat for Chad C. Brown — the same barn also saddles Prairie Princess at 12/1, but Prat's assignment on Morning Menace is the clearest stable indicator of which one they prefer. At 6/1, this is the best morning-line value among our top three, and an average speed of 54 is competitive. Brown's maidens at Saratoga are always worth a look, and Morning Menace is a live show ticket at a price.

Race 7

8:38 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

A full, deep turf claiming field at 1 1/16 miles where the top of the market is legitimately loaded — but our ratings suggest the favorite is the right horse and a pair of overlays could make the exotics very interesting.

win13I'm WorthyML 2/1

I'm Worthy rates highest in our analysis at 75.35 with a 16% career win rate and draws Kendrick Carmouche for Linda Rice. The 2/1 morning-line favoritism is deserved — this horse grades out meaningfully above most of the field, and Rice consistently places horses well at Saratoga claiming levels. At 1 1/16 miles on the turf, tactical positioning matters, and Carmouche has the savvy to find the right spot in a 13-horse field.

place7Ciro di MarzioML 5/2

Ciro di Marzio rates at 74.62 — just barely behind the top pick — and is handled by Wesley A. Ward, a trainer renowned for producing sharp turf performers. Junior Alvarado gets the call at 5/2 on the morning line, which makes this horse the second choice and a likely part of most winning tickets. The zero career win percentage is notable but not disqualifying in a claiming context where horses may be lightly raced.

show2English LawML 7/2

English Law rates 70.84 with a 7% career win rate, which is modest, but the William Walden training angle and Flavien Prat in the irons at 7/2 keep this horse very much alive. Seven percent on the record may reflect tough competition faced previously — a drop into claiming conditions can unlock a new level. At 7/2, there's real value in exotics if the pace scenario sets up for a late-running trip.

Race 8

9:12 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

The starter optional claimer at one mile on the dirt features a clear ratings leader and a pair of legitimate challengers — this race has the feel of a short-priced winner with exotics built around the closers.

win7PalaciosML 5/2

Palacios is the top-rated horse in the race at 87.81 with a 22% career win rate — a strong strike rate that signals a genuine winner. Irad Ortiz, Jr. takes the mount for William Walden, and at 5/2 on the morning line, the price is fair for a horse that leads all comers in both our rating and historical win percentage. An average speed of 55 matches the best in the field and underscores the consistency that earned this horse our top selection. This is as clean a win-pick setup as you'll find on the card.

place5GethsemaneML 4/1

Gethsemane rates second overall at 83.44 with Jose L. Ortiz in the irons for Linda Rice. The 14% career win rate won't jump off the page, but in a starter optional claimer, that figure represents a horse that has competed and won at this level. At 4/1, there's value relative to the top pick, and Ortiz is capable of timing a sustained run at the stretch. Gethsemane fits neatly as the place horse in exacta and trifecta combinations.

show3Life Is GravyML 6/1

Life Is Gravy rates third at 80.07 with an impressive 25% career win rate — one win in every four starts is genuine class for this level. Tyler Gaffalione gets the assignment for Chad Summers, and an average speed of 55 ties for best in the field. At 6/1, this horse offers legitimate show value and could easily upset the top two if the pace falls apart — worth including in all your combination bets.

Race 9

9:46 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

A chaotic 16-horse maiden claiming field on the turf at 1 1/16 miles — the ratings are spread wide, but one horse stands well clear of the field and offers a compelling profile despite going postward at a fair price.

win12Island CharmML 5/1

Island Charm tops our TrackWiz ratings in this race at 84.17 — a significant margin over most of the field — and draws Manuel Franco for trainer Ilkay Kantarmaci. Franco is one of the premier tacticians at Saratoga's meet, and his ability to find position early in a 16-horse turf field can be the difference between a winner and a traffic casualty. At 5/1 on the morning line, the odds are reasonable for the top-rated horse. The Kantarmaci barn also has My Devine One in the race, and Franco's assignment on Island Charm likely signals stable confidence in this one.

place9Whatta WeekendML 5/1

Whatta Weekend comes in with a 71.2 rating — second best in the full field — and gets Jaime Rodriguez for David P. Duggan at 5/1 on the morning line. In a maiden turf field this large, finding a horse with a rating in the 70s is a luxury, and Whatta Weekend's figure gives it a real chance to be involved at the finish. The value-to-rating ratio here is one of the better bets on the late card for exotic players.

show6Roasted RedsML 3/1

Roasted Reds rates at 56.67 with Flavien Prat — one of the finest turf jockeys in North America right now — in the saddle for Jorge R. Abreu. The 3/1 morning line makes this the shortest price of our top three selections, but Prat's turf IQ and Abreu's solid placement record argue for inclusion in trifectas and superfectas. An average speed of 54 is competitive in this field, and Prat rarely shows up without a live horse under him.

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Today's Saratoga card is tailor-made for smart bettors — firm turf, a clear pace bias favoring tactical runners, and a headline stakes race that kicks things off with some serious intrigue around Mr Percy. On the free side, Irish Goodbye is our highest-rated top pick of the day and the one we feel best about at the price. For the full nine-race breakdown, pace maps, and exotic tickets, the complete analysis is available to TrackWiz subscribers — see our plans at /pricing.

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