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Santa Anita Picks & Predictions — October 23, 2026

October 23, 20269 racesAll Santa Anita picks

It's a beautiful Friday at Santa Anita — 70 degrees, partly cloudy skies, and what looks like a near-perfect surface day for both the main track and the green stuff. That kind of weather is a gift for handicappers: no slop, no wind excuses, just horses doing what they do best.

We've got a nine-race card on tap, split evenly between turf and dirt, ranging from maiden claimers to a Starter Optional Claiming bout on the grass. Four of the nine races go on the turf, so if you've been tracking any turf form trends this meet, today's a good day to cash in on that work.

Our TrackWiz models have been busy. The card has a mix of short-priced favorites we like and a few spots where the morning line looks beatable — including a couple of overlays in the claiming ranks that are absolutely worth your attention.

Best Bets

Race 1

8:00 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

A lopsided maiden claimer on the turf mile where one horse towers over the field on ratings — the intrigue is figuring out who fills the exacta behind him.

win2Mighty ToroML 1/2

Mighty Toro comes in with a TrackWiz rating of 90 — a full 11 points clear of the second-best horse in the field — and Joel Rosario in the irons is never an accident. The morning line of 1/2 tells you the market agrees, and at a mile on turf, pace setup should suit a horse of this profile. He's a maiden, so there's always unknown-quantity risk, but the numbers here are simply in a different league.

place4FaustoML 7/2

Fausto is the logical second choice with a rating of 79.11 and a morning line of 7/2 — solid backing for a maiden claimer. Tyler Baze keeps him grounded in a race where the favorite figures to control the tempo, giving Fausto a clean trip to chase into the stretch.

show1Corkscrew AndyML 4/1

Corkscrew Andy draws the rail and brings Richard Mandella's steady hand to a race where position on the turf matters. His rating of 58.73 puts him third in the field and at 4/1 on the morning line, he's a reasonable show anchor or third leg of an exacta if the top two fire as expected.

Race 2

8:29 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

With Fumo Grigio scratched, this five-horse dirt maiden claimer shapes up as a two-horse battle at the top, with a clear gap to the rest.

win4Johnny BML 2/1

Johnny B tops the TrackWiz ratings at 88.54 and comes in as the 2/1 morning-line choice, with Tyler Baze — a rider who knows this track — aboard for trainer Ian Kruljac. In a five-horse field on dirt, the pace scenario should be manageable, and that rating advantage over the rest of the field is hard to dismiss. This is as close to a standout as you'll find in a maiden claimer.

place2Big Time CoachML 4/1

Big Time Coach checks in at 73.58 on the TrackWiz ratings and draws Joel Rosario — arguably the best rider on the card — for trainer Ryan Hanson. At 4/1 on the morning line, he offers genuine place value if Johnny B handles his business up front, and the exacta with these two at a fair price is worth building tickets around.

show5IncaML 6/1

Inca at 6/1 is the third-ranked horse in the field with a rating of 58.61, giving him a clear edge on Spider John and Romanticon in what's a thin bottom half of the field. Alfredo Bautista has been active at the meet, and in a short field, show money here is realistic for exotic players looking to protect their tickets.

Race 3

8:59 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Turf

A tricky 6.5-furlong turf claimer where the morning-line favorite doesn't top the ratings — there's a real upset scenario brewing here.

win6GazonML 5/1

Gazon is our top-rated horse in this field at 84.17 despite carrying a 5/1 morning line — that disconnect between market price and TrackWiz rating is exactly the kind of value spot we look for. He's one of two horses posting an average speed figure of 57 in this field and trainer Val Brinkerhoff has placed him well on turf sprints before. The pace scenario looks like it could set up for a closer, which fits his profile nicely.

place4Mio BambinoML 2/1

Mio Bambino is the 2/1 public choice with Joel Rosario doing the steering, but his TrackWiz rating of 75.42 actually slots him second in the field — not first. His 11% career win rate suggests he's the type who runs well without always closing the deal, making him a strong place play in exotics without necessarily anchoring your win bets.

show5Straight BuzzinML 12/1

Straight Buzzin is a legitimate longshot angle that deserves show consideration and more — a 33% career win rate is the best in this field by a wide margin, and at 12/1 on the morning line, the market hasn't priced that in. His rating of 64.58 ranks him third in the race, and if the pace gets hot up front between Burning Rubber and others, he could be flying late.

We're opening the card with three free best bets across the first three races, and there's a clear theme tying them together: early pace pressure and horses that have shown the ability to rate and finish. In Race 1, Mighty Toro comes in as a heavy morning-line favorite at 1/2 on the turf mile — that kind of price demands a strong profile, and our analysis says it's earned. Race 2 flips to the dirt, where Johnny B at 2/1 gives you a bit more value in the maiden claiming ranks. Then Race 3 is where things get interesting — Gazon is sitting at 5/1 on the turf sprint, and that's a price our models flagged as a potential overlay in a wide-open claiming field.

The common thread through these three? All three top picks project well to pace scenarios that set up for closers or stalkers — the kind of trips that tend to hold up when the track is playing fair, which it looks like it will today. Dive into each race card for the full breakdowns on these three.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

9:30 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

An eight-horse dirt sprint claiming race with a heavy favorite on the morning line, but a pair of double-digit longshots at the bottom could complicate the ticket for frugal players.

win8HankeringML EVN

Hankering is the clear TrackWiz top choice with a maxed-out rating of 90 and comes in as the even-money morning-line favorite — that's a combination that's hard to fade. His 25% career win rate is the second-best in the field among horses with a meaningful record, and Drayden Van Dyke is one of the sharpest pilots at Santa Anita right now. In a 6-furlong dirt sprint, he should be able to dictate or sit close to whatever pace develops.

place3Twilight TimeML 4/1

Twilight Time owns the best career win rate in the field at 33% — that alone stands out in a claiming race — and Kazushi Kimura gives him a live rider. His TrackWiz rating of 73.51 slots him second in the race, and at 4/1 on the morning line, he's a reasonable place option for players who want exposure without doubling up on a heavy favorite.

show7AmadorML 5/2

Amador at 5/2 is the third-rated horse in the race at 71.37, and Jeff Mullins is a trainer who knows how to get his horses ready for sprint routes. His 14% career win rate is respectable for a claiming horse, and with Edwin Maldonado up, he's capable of tracking the pace and grinding out a piece of the purse.

Race 5

10:00 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Turf

A competitive starter optional claiming on the turf with three horses rated in the 77-to-89 range — this race should be genuinely contested all the way to the wire.

win2Hey Lil LadyML 9/5

Hey Lil Lady tops the field with a TrackWiz rating of 88.83 and posts the highest average speed figure in the race at 56. Julien Leparoux is a turf specialist who makes the right moves in tight spots, and trainer Robert Hess Jr. has her ready — it's worth noting Hess also saddles Camila Catalina, so he's double-barreled here. At 9/5, she's the rightful favorite and our top selection.

place1WinikaML 5/2

Winika is razor-close behind on ratings at 86.22 and brings the best career win rate in the field at 33% — that's a horse who converts when the setup is right. Jeff Mullins conditions her and Juan Hernandez provides the ground experience at this distance on turf. At 5/2, this is a legitimate win threat being treated as a place play — keep her on top of tickets as well.

show3Empress MatildaML 3/1

Empress Matilda rates third in the field at 77.02 and posts the best average speed figure of anyone in the race at 57 — raw speed is real here. Adrian Escobedo has been riding with confidence, and at 3/1, she's the third wagering choice who actually might outrun her price if the top two get into a pace duel. A solid show anchor and a horse to consider on top of exacta tickets.

Race 6

10:30 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

The public figures to load up on the 7/5 favorite going a mile on dirt, but the TrackWiz ratings tell a different story — the real top-rated horse is at more than triple the morning-line odds.

win6Hurricane WayML 9/2

Hurricane Way sits atop the TrackWiz ratings at 84.9 and is the best-rated horse in this field — yet comes in at 9/2 on the morning line while a lesser-rated rival gets bet down to 7/5. That's a value gap we don't see often, and Juan Hernandez gives him a sharp rider who knows how to navigate a one-mile dirt trip. His average speed figure of 56 is the highest in the race, and with a 7% career win rate in what appears to be a tougher class, a drop here sets up well.

place2Hoosick FallsML 7/5

Hoosick Falls is the public's pick at 7/5 and his rating of 77.54 is second in the field, so there's legitimate form behind the market support. Kyle Frey keeps him competitive and Jeff Mullins has him ticking over nicely. He's a logical place play for conservative tickets, even if our analysis suggests he's being slightly over-bet relative to Hurricane Way.

show1Farmer TomML 8/1

Farmer Tom at 8/1 is a sneaky show option with a 16% career win rate and a rating of 74.51 that puts him third in the field. The wide morning-line price suggests he's lightly regarded, but Armando Aguilar brings local track savvy, and if there's pace pressure on the front end in this mile, a closer like Farmer Tom can pick up the pieces.

Race 7

11:00 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A wide-open maiden claimer over 5.5 furlongs of dirt with no dominant rating standout — the top handful of horses are separated by just a few points, making this a prime exotic-building race.

win4AdiaML 9/2

Adia tops the TrackWiz ratings at 69.7 and draws rider Welfin Orantes for trainer Ryan Hanson, who has shown the ability to prep maidens off short works. Her 9/2 morning line represents fair value given the field's tightness — in a five-and-a-half furlong sprint, breaking alertly and finding the right trip will be key, and Hanson's barn tends to have their horses ready to run on debut or near-debut efforts.

place5Mustang KnickyML 3/1

Mustang Knicky is just a tick behind Adia at 67.7 on the ratings and brings a slightly better average speed figure of 55. At 3/1, Tiago Pereira will try to keep her close to the pace in a field where the early fractions could get lively, and Steve Knapp also conditions Quick Sip in this race — a trainer who double-enters often has one he really likes, and Mustang Knicky is the more likely live one.

show6Queen of BantryML 5/2

Queen of Bantry at 5/2 is the betting public's second choice and rates third in our analysis at 57.5. Cristobal Herrera gives her a competent pilot and her average speed figure of 55 ties several rivals — she's not at a disadvantage physically. In a race where the top three are closely matched, she's a show lock candidate and worth including in all your spread tickets.

Race 8

11:30 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A nine-horse dirt claiming sprint with a clear top two on the ratings sheet and a wide gap to the rest — the battle for third in exotics is where the real handicapping puzzle lies.

win4Miz ClubcaliML 9/5

Miz Clubcali headlines this field with a TrackWiz rating of 88.83 — tied for the top mark on today's card among claiming horses — and she comes in at 9/5 on the morning line. Her 19% career win rate is solid for the claiming ranks, Tiago Pereira gives her a strong ride, and trainer Ian Kruljac keeps horses coming back to the track sharp. In a 6-furlong dirt sprint, she has the figures to lead or sit close and hold.

place7Harney LaneML 3/1

Harney Lane is the clear second choice on our ratings at 83.11 and his 25% career win rate is the best in this nine-horse field — that's a horse who closes deals when pointed right. Ricardo Gonzalez is a capable pilot, and with an average speed figure of 56 — the highest in the race — Harney Lane has raw ability to threaten the top. At 3/1, he's a legitimate win threat being slotted here as a place play.

show6Chasing KatML 6/1

Chasing Kat at 6/1 rates third in the field at 67.49 with a 17% career win rate that speaks to some consistency. Armando Aguilar has local experience and Gary Stute conditions horses to run hard in spot starts. In a nine-horse sprint where pace could get crowded early, a horse with Chasing Kat's profile can pick up pieces — she's a solid show hedge and a worthwhile addition to exacta boxes.

Race 9

12:00 AM EDT

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Turf

Two horses dominate the late turf nightcap and the morning line has them flipped relative to our ratings — there's a genuine value play on top if you trust the numbers over the crowd.

win5Danzingwith MaxineML 2/1

Danzingwith Maxine tops the TrackWiz ratings at 88.54 with a 33% career win rate — the best conversion rate among the main contenders — and Hall of Famer Mike Smith rarely takes a mount he doesn't believe in. She's the 2/1 choice on the morning line, which actually makes her the better price between the top two despite being the higher-rated horse on our end. Mark Glatt conditions her, and Glatt is one of the sharpest turf trainers at Santa Anita. At 6.5 furlongs on the grass, her profile fits the distance perfectly.

place6Issa CourtML 7/5

Issa Court is the morning-line favorite at 7/5 — shorter odds than our top pick — but her TrackWiz rating of 81.72 actually slots her second in the field. Joel Rosario is a perennial A-list jockey and trainer Robert Hess Jr. has another runner going here, which sometimes means resources are split. She's a worthy place play and a horse to keep alive in exactas, but the value line puts her second rather than first.

show1Oveta's HobbyML 8/1

Oveta's Hobby at 8/1 is the show pick and a legitimate dark horse for the exotics — her TrackWiz rating of 72.69 puts her third in the field and her 15% career win rate shows she can win at this level. Emisael Jaramillo is a strong turf rider, and trainer Ryan Bratcher has her positioned at a price that could make a trifecta very interesting if the top two do their jobs. She's the kind of horse that makes the third spot of a trifecta pay.

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Bottom line: Santa Anita is serving up ideal conditions today, and our top free plays — Mighty Toro, Johnny B, and the value play Gazon at 5/1 — give every reader a strong starting point. For the full card, including pace projections, exotic ticket construction, and our best bets in Races 4 through 9, premium subscribers have everything they need. Good luck, and as always — bet smart, not big.

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