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Santa Anita Picks & Predictions — September 25, 2026

September 25, 20268 racesAll Santa Anita picks

It's a warm, breezy Friday at Santa Anita — 85 degrees under partly cloudy skies — and the kind of afternoon where the turf course figures to be playing fast and fair. Eight races are on the card today, split between dirt and turf, with distances ranging from a quick 5½ furlongs all the way out to 1⅛ miles. Plenty of variety to keep both sprint bettors and route players locked in all day.

The card leans heavily on maiden and claiming company, which means pace scenarios can get scrambled and overlays are very much in play. TrackWiz analysis has flagged some interesting angles across the full card — including a couple of spots where the morning line looks a little generous to us.

Best Bets

Race 1

8:00 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Turf

A short turf maiden where the morning line tells the whole story — Baffert sends out a heavy favorite, but two legitimate challengers lurk at attractive odds.

win5Smashing MachineML 3/5

Smashing Machine is the class of this field on paper, carrying a TrackWiz rating of 60 — the highest in the race — and drawing the Bob Baffert barn, which consistently delivers sharp maiden turf debutants. At 3/5 on the morning line, the market agrees this is a standout, and Juan J. Hernandez is a strong rider to have aboard for a race where positioning on the turf could be decisive. The 57 average speed figure matches Ruler of Law at the top of the experienced runners, but Baffert's horsemanship edge gives this one the nod.

place3Conquer We MustML 3/1

Conquer We Must (3/1) represents genuine value behind the chalk, posting a solid 56.67 TrackWiz rating with Joel Rosario — one of the best grass riders in the country — in the irons. Simon Callaghan has a strong record with turf maidens and this horse looks well-placed to grab a piece at a decent price if the favorite hits any traffic.

show4Ruler of LawML 9/2

Ruler of Law clocks the joint-best average speed figure in the field at 57, giving Edwin Maldonado live material at 9/2. The Luis Mendez trainee is worth slotting into exotics as a pace factor who could hang on for third if the favorite and Conquer We Must engage each other early.

Race 2

8:32 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Dirt maiden claimers on a 6-furlong sprint — there's a clear standout at the top, but a double-digit longshot could complicate exacta and trifecta tickets.

win5DrulinerML 3/2

Druliner is the horse to beat, full stop. A TrackWiz rating of 85.13 towers over this field, and Craig Anthony Lewis has the horse prepped for a sharp effort under Juan J. Hernandez, who brings serious horsemanship to a race where early speed can be decisive. At 3/2 on the morning line, the public recognizes the edge here — but that rating gap over the second-ranked horse (73.90) is wide enough to warrant confidence.

place3Sissy GirlML 5/2

Sissy Girl (5/2) pairs the second-best rating in the field at 73.90 with a competitive 55 average speed figure, and Edwin Maldonado has the tactical ability to get her into a ground-saving trip on the rail. If Druliner hits any trouble or gets away slowly, Sissy Girl has the profile to pounce for the place spot.

show1Grape Juice TooML 10/1

Here's the longshot angle worth a look: Grape Juice Too opens at 10/1 but carries a 66.53 TrackWiz rating — actually higher than the 6/1 morning line shot Queen of Bantry — making her a legitimate overlay in the show pool and in horizontal wagers. Trainer Melanie W. McDonald keeps the horse lightly raced and fresh, and Armando Ayuso knows this circuit well.

Race 3

9:04 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A competitive 5½-furlong dirt claimer with experienced horses — win percentages scattered across the board and two standout ratings at the top, making pace scenario the key factor.

win1EltonsingsanotherML 3/1

Eltonsingsanother tops the TrackWiz ratings at 87.08 in a race full of horses with real form, and Tyler Baze knows how to save ground in sprint routes at Santa Anita. The 13% career win rate on an experienced horse isn't flashy, but the rating gap over the field is significant — this runner has been earning it in tougher spots. At 3/1, there's fair value on a horse who should be sitting close to the pace in a field where multiple speed horses could battle each other into submission.

place2Miz ClubcaliML 5/2

Miz Clubcali is the most dangerous rival at an 80.01 TrackWiz rating, and her 20% career win rate tells you she hits the board consistently. Tiago Josue Pereira gets the call and the 5/2 morning line likely holds — this filly is sharp enough to close off a heated pace duel and grab the place if Eltonsingsanother gets a clear lead.

show4Chasing KatML 5/1

Chasing Kat at 5/1 is a sneaky show play — an 18% career win rate means she finishes in the money far more often than not, and trainer Gary Stute puts the horse in competitive spots. With a 68.57 rating and a five-horse pace scenario that could get chaotic early, Chasing Kat is the type to sweep up late.

Three races are open to all readers today, and they cover both dirt and turf, giving you an early feel for how the two surfaces are playing. Smashing Machine opens the day in a Maiden Special Weight sprint on the turf in Race 1 — keep an eye on how those early fractions develop, because it'll tell you a lot about whether the grass is playing to closers or pace-setters today. On the dirt side, Druliner (Race 2) and Eltonsingsanother (Race 3) are our top free picks in the maiden and claiming ranks respectively, and both bring ratings that suggest they're legitimately better than their opposition on paper.

The common thread across the free races: class and consistency matter in these lower-level fields. When a horse has a clear edge in TrackWiz ratings — as Druliner does at 85+ — betting against the crowd in maiden claiming company is often where value lives. Don't sleep on the early card.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

9:36 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 1/8 mi · Turf

A premium-content race built around a well-backed even-money favorite in a 1 1/8-mile turf maiden — beat the chalk at your own risk, but there are two fringe runners worth using underneath.

win6Mighty ToroML EVN

Mighty Toro enters as the clear public choice at even money with the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 90, and Joel Rosario — one of the top turf riders in the country — is exactly the right pilot for a 1 1/8-mile grass route. The John W. Sadler barn is elite when it comes to longer-route turf maidens, and this combination of elite rating, top jockey, and top trainer is hard to fade. Unlock the full race analysis with a TrackWiz subscription at /pricing.

place1FaustoML 9/2

Fausto (9/2) carries the second-best rating in the race at 77.53 under Tyler Baze, and trainer Robert B. Hess Jr. has a knack for placing horses in spots they can hit the board. The slightly lower average speed figure of 53 suggests Fausto may need pace to set up, but at 1 1/8 miles on turf, pace usually does collapse — leaving closers with a clean path.

show2Born to RockML 7/2

Born to Rock (7/2) sits third in the TrackWiz ratings at 73.94 and gets Umberto Rispoli, who is one of the savviest grass riders on the West Coast circuit. Trainer Michael W. McCarthy is a turf specialist with a strong record at this distance, making Born to Rock a logical exotics piece even at a price that doesn't scream value.

Race 5

10:08 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A wide-open 6-furlong dirt maiden claimer where the top three in our ratings are separated by just a handful of points — pace and break from the gate will matter enormously.

win3MrsaintpatrickML 8/5

Mrsaintpatrick comes in as the 8/5 morning line favorite with a 59.0 TrackWiz rating — best in the field — and Doug F. O'Neill is a proven trainer when it comes to putting debut runners on the front end at six furlongs. Edwin Maldonado brings tactical awareness to get this horse a clean break and a ground-saving path, which matters in a sprint where the first quarter often decides the finish. At 8/5, the market has priced this correctly as the most likely winner, though the field is tightly bunched and anything can happen.

place6Here Comes Too TooML 4/1

Here Comes Too Too (4/1) deserves serious consideration with a 55.0 TrackWiz rating and trainer George Papaprodromou, who has a history of placing horses intelligently at Santa Anita. Jeremy Laprida brings local knowledge to the saddle, and at 4/1 on a horse this close to the top of the ratings, there's legitimate place value here — especially if the favorite gets shuffled back early.

show7Catfish CoryML 9/2

Catfish Cory (9/2) ties Big Time Coach in TrackWiz ratings at 54.17 but gets the nod for show on the strength of Kazushi Kimura's aggressive early style and the Steven Miyadi barn's ability to have horses ready to fire first out. In a wide-open maiden sprint, three horses can hit the board out of order — Catfish Cory is a reasonable hedge in exotics.

Race 6

10:40 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

A quality allowance optional claiming mile on turf with a fascinating dynamic — the morning line favorite isn't our top-rated horse, and the horse with a 60% career win rate is going off at 5/2.

win1He's a KnockoutML 5/2

He's a Knockout is the pick at 5/2, and the 60% career win rate is the number that jumps off the page — this horse wins when he runs, plain and simple. His 79.99 TrackWiz rating leads the field, and trainer Carla Gaines keeps consistent horses in winning form. Juan J. Hernandez gets a confident, proven winner on a surface (turf, 1 mile) where pace control can be decisive — and this horse's profile screams he'll be forwardly placed from the jump.

place3IriseachML 7/2

Iriseach (7/2) is a sneaky play at a better price than the morning line favorite — a 78.19 rating is nearly identical to He's a Knockout's figure, and a 12% career win rate understates how often this horse finds the board. Umberto Rispoli is one of the most reliable turf pilots in Southern California, and a Philip D'Amato-trained horse in an allowance turf mile is always live.

show2Jordi BearML 6/5

Jordi Bear opens as the 6/5 morning line choice, which puts the show analysis in an interesting spot — the market loves this horse more than we do. The 72.6 TrackWiz rating ranks third in the field, and while Joel Rosario is a world-class jockey, zero career wins from the D'Amato barn's second entry here is a flag. Use in the show position for exotics coverage but don't be surprised if He's a Knockout and Iriseach run 1-2.

Race 7

11:11 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A 5½-furlong dirt claimer with a clear top-rated horse that the morning line undervalues — Battle School's 87.08 TrackWiz rating is the standout number in a field where everyone else checks in well below.

win6Battle SchoolML 3/1

Battle School is the bet of the race for the second half of the card. An 87.08 TrackWiz rating is a significant edge over the field — Desert Kat is next at 77.05 — and trainer Steve R. Knapp has a 20% career win rate with this horse, showing the connection knows how to get results. Tiago Josue Pereira is an underrated pilot who will have Battle School in a forward position early in a sprint where the first call matters, and the 3/1 morning line makes this a genuine value play given the ratings gap.

place7Desert KatML 5/2

Desert Kat (5/2) is the most credible threat to Battle School with a 77.05 TrackWiz rating, and trainer George Papaprodromou is sharp — he also saddles Here Comes Too Too in Race 5, showing he's active and confident on this card. Jeremy Laprida rides a horse that is capable of sitting just off the early pace and pouncing in the final furlong, making Desert Kat the logical place horse.

show2Harbor CodeML 9/5

Harbor Code comes in as the 9/5 morning line chalk, which suggests the public is higher on this horse than our analysis. A 56.06 TrackWiz rating with a 12% career win rate and an average speed figure of 56 gives Harbor Code a real profile — Kazushi Kimura will keep this horse in contention, and at morning line odds that imply a near-favorite, there's minimal show pool value. Use as a safety net in trifectas.

Race 8

11:41 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Turf

The nightcap is a 6-furlong turf maiden with a heavily favored morning line chalk and several first-time starters showing zero speed figures — rider and trainer quality will separate the contenders.

win8ThebeachisbackML 6/5

Thebeachisback tops the TrackWiz ratings at 59.67 and is the clear public choice at 6/5 under Juan J. Hernandez, paired with trainer Michael W. McCarthy — one of the most respected turf horsemen on the West Coast. McCarthy's horses are almost always ready to fire first out on grass, and Hernandez gives any horse a professional trip. In a field with several first-time starters showing no published speed figures, a horse with a 55 average speed figure and the top rating has a meaningful edge.

place1GoldenlynnML 5/2

Goldenlynn (5/2) holds the second-best TrackWiz rating in the field at 57.5 and Blaine D. Wright puts her in a spot she can compete. With no published average speed figure, this is a horse with a more opaque form profile — but Ricardo Gonzalez is a capable jockey who knows the Santa Anita turf course, and the market respects this runner enough to price her second in the field.

show5VallendarML 5/1

Vallendar (5/1) is the only horse in the race besides the top two with a published average speed figure — checking in at 55 — and trainer Ian Kruljac sends this runner out with Armando Ayuso in the irons. A 53.33 TrackWiz rating trails the top two but puts Vallendar well clear of the rest, making this a logical exotics piece in a race where the bottom half of the field is largely unknown quantities.

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Bottom line: this is a workable Friday card with real value hiding in the lower-level fields and a couple of turf races that could get interesting late. Our free picks — Smashing Machine, Druliner, and Eltonsingsanother — are a solid starting point, but the full picture is in the premium analysis. Good luck out there, and as always, bet smart.

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