Daily Picks

Sam Houston Picks & Predictions — May 22, 2026

Friday, May 22, 202610 racesSam Houston

Sam Houston is rolling out a 10-race Friday card on May 22nd, and the conditions are about as Texas as it gets — 86°F under a partly cloudy sky with the dirt track playing fast. This is a pure quarter horse program, and if you love short, explosive sprints where fractions of a second separate winners from also-rans, you're in the right place.

Distances range from the lightning-quick 250-yard dashes all the way out to the 870-yard mid-distance test in Race 4 — which stands out as one of the most tactically interesting races on the card. With warm, dry conditions helping horses get good footing out of the gates, early speed figures should be at a premium today.

Three races are fully unlocked for everyone, so casual fans and new TrackWiz users can follow along without a subscription. The remaining seven races are part of our full premium breakdown — let's get into it.

Best Bets

Race 1

11:30 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 300 yd · Dirt

A clear top-heavy opener at 300 yards — the morning line favorite carries a massive ratings gap over the field, but there's a cluster of live contenders in the middle that could make the exotics interesting.

win4Your Tempting Me GlML 9/5

Your Tempting Me Gl (#4) is the standout of this field by a wide margin, posting a TrackWiz rating of 88.83 that dwarfs nearly every rival in here. A 30% career win rate is elite in short-distance quarter horse racing, where win percentages are naturally compressed. Luis L. Vivanco gets the call, and the 9/5 morning line suggests the market already respects this one — but that figure may still be beatable in exotics. When a horse checks the boxes on both ratings and win consistency, you play them.

place3CalmebigpoppaML 5/2

Calmebigpoppa (#3) pairs a solid 63.79 TrackWiz rating with a 21% career win rate — numbers that quietly belong in this race. Alejandro Medina has a live mount here, and at 5/2 on the morning line, there's a fair case this horse runs second even if the favorite fires as expected. A natural place play in the exotics.

show1Bless Em DirtyML 7/2

Bless Em Dirty (#1) comes in with a 61.93 rating and a 15% career win rate, making it the third-best number in the field on both fronts. Oliver E. Martinez in the irons is a workmanlike combination, and the 7/2 morning line reflects a horse that should be factored into your trifecta construction. Don't overthink it — the top three here rate out cleanly.

Race 2

11:56 PM EDT

Claiming · 250 yd · Dirt

The morning line favorite and our top-rated horse are different horses in this 250-yard claimer, setting up a potential upset scenario and creating some interesting value in the middle of the field.

win7Runaway Prize DashML 3/1

Runaway Prize Dash (#7) sits atop the TrackWiz ratings at 87.08 despite being listed at 3/1 on the morning line — a gap worth noting. Trainer Jose Luis Sanchez III sends out Noe Villatoro, a jockey who's active throughout this card. A 14% career win rate is modest, but the model's confidence here is strong, and 3/1 offers fair value if the rating holds up at 250 yards.

place3Sadie Sweet WattersML 9/5

Sadie Sweet Watters (#3) is the morning line favorite at 9/5 with a 72.98 rating and a 20% career win rate — the best win percentage in this field. Oliver E. Martinez rides for trainer Arnold Lewis, and there's clearly a reason the oddsmakers favor this horse. She's a natural place play if Runaway Prize Dash fires on top.

show8All Lights OutML 9/2

All Lights Out (#8) carries the third-best TrackWiz rating at 69.04 and draws Raul Padilla Hernandez Jr. for trainer Marc E. Jungers. The 4/9 career win rate is thin, but the model likes the underlying profile, and at 9/2 on the morning line, including this one in trifecta tickets as the third wheel is a reasonable call.

Race 3

12:22 AM EDT

Optional Claiming · 300 yd · Dirt

This optional claiming sprint at 300 yards features a top-heavy ratings battle between two horses in the mid-80s, with an intriguing morning line mismatch that creates some real value at the windows.

win3Fabulous CasinaML 4/1

Fabulous Casina (#3) tops our analysis with an 85.62 TrackWiz rating and a strong 30% career win rate — one of the better win percentages you'll find on this card. Jockey Froylan Tellez Ramirez rides for trainer Brittany N. Tellez, a barn that shows up multiple times today with live horses. The 4/1 morning line looks generous given these numbers, making Fabulous Casina not just a top pick but a potential value play.

place9Mrs Pyc Painted NovaML 7/2

Mrs Pyc Painted Nova (#9) is right there with an 81.46 rating and a 23% career win rate, drawing Claudio Ponce Aguilar for trainer Randall R. Read. Listed at 7/2, this horse is actually shorter on the morning line than our win pick — suggesting the public may have these two flipped. That dynamic makes Fabulous Casina the better play on top and Mrs Pyc Painted Nova a reliable place horse to back underneath.

show8Embers TimeML 6/1

Embers Time (#8) brings legitimate credentials at 66.57 on the TrackWiz scale with a 31% career win rate — actually the highest in this field. Francisco Giles rides for Martin Rodriguez, and while the model has this one third, that win percentage tells you this horse knows how to hit the board. Solid show inclusion and a credible piece of any trifecta.

Our three free races — Races 1, 2, and 3 — give you a nice appetizer to open the afternoon. Your Tempting Me Gl draws our top rating on the card's opener at 300 yards, carrying an 88.83 TrackWiz rating into a Starter Optional Claiming spot where that kind of edge matters. In Race 2, Runaway Prize Dash comes in at morning-line odds of 3/1 in the 250-yard claiming dash — a touch of value if the rating (87.08) holds up at the windows. Then Fabulous Casina closes out the free slate in Race 3, another 300-yard Optional Claimer where the 4/1 morning line could represent real overlay territory given our 85.62 rating.

One common thread across all three: these are short-burst races on a warm, firm dirt surface, so gate speed is everything. Horses who have shown clean break tendencies in recent works and past performances are getting an extra tick up in our models today.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

12:48 AM EDT

Optional Claiming · 870 yd · Dirt

A rare longer-distance quarter horse test at 870 yards with three horses bunched tightly in the mid-80s on our ratings — this one could come down to pace management and who handles the added ground best.

win1Unlimited CandyML 3/1

Unlimited Candy (#1) leads our TrackWiz analysis with an 87.08 rating and a jaw-dropping 42% career win rate — by far the best win percentage on this entire race card. Eliazar T. Vera gets the call for trainer Manuel Roman, and at 3/1 on the morning line, this feels like a horse that should be odds-on. The distance stretches out to 870 yards, which demands more tactical ability than a pure 300-yard blast, and Unlimited Candy's win consistency suggests this is a horse that handles varying conditions.

place6Eye Will DecideML 2/1

Eye Will Decide (#6) is the morning line favorite at 2/1 with an 83.30 rating and a 23% career win rate. Noe Villatoro rides for Adan Guzman, and while our analysis slots this one second, the public may end up making it the favorite to beat. At the longer 870-yard trip, a closer-type could benefit from a strong pace scenario, and Eye Will Decide profiles as exactly that kind of horse.

show5Hondo HocksML 6/1

Hondo Hocks (#5) rounds out a very strong top three at 82.71 on the ratings and a 23% career win rate — nearly identical to the favorite on paper. Luis L. Vivanco aboard for Arnold Lewis is a combination that's active throughout this card. At 6/1, there's some overlay value here if you believe this race is closer than the morning line suggests, and the numbers back that up.

Race 5

1:14 AM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 550 yd · Dirt

A wide-open 10-horse maiden claiming field at 550 yards where career win percentages are all zeroes — our ratings separate one horse from the pack in a race that figures to be a lottery for everyone else.

win2Chickies Kool CoronaML 5/2

Chickies Kool Corona (#2) is the clear standout in a field of maidens, posting an 87.81 TrackWiz rating that is head and shoulders above the competition — the second-highest individual horse rating on today's full card. Luis L. Vivanco rides for Juan Johnny M. Hernandez, and the 5/2 morning line is fair for a horse this much better than its rivals on paper. In a maiden race where nobody has broken their maiden yet, the one with the strongest underlying profile is your best bet.

place9Jm RoseML 15/1

Jm Rose (#9) is a genuine value angle here at 15/1 on the morning line, but the TrackWiz rating of 68.54 says there's more here than the odds suggest. Oliver E. Martinez gets the mount for trainer Joe Chapa. In a field this competitive among the lower-rated runners, a horse with a 68-point rating sitting at morning line longshot territory is exactly the kind of overlay that makes exotic tickets worth building.

show5Em Royal SecretML 12/1

Em Royal Secret (#5) comes in at 62.89 on our ratings, the third-best number in the field, and is listed at 12/1 — another potential overlay in a maiden race where the public often defaults to name recognition. Claudio Ponce Aguilar rides for trainer Abraham Rangel, and at 550 yards the field will be sorting out a longer trip than typical short sprints. Include this one in your trifectas.

Race 6

1:40 AM EDT

Optional Claiming · 400 yd · Dirt

One horse dominates the morning line and the TrackWiz ratings in this optional claiming 400-yard sprint, but two legitimate contenders lurk at prices that could make the exotics very rewarding.

win4Lil Perry WagonML 6/5

Lil Perry Wagon (#4) is the heavy morning line favorite at 6/5 and backs it up with a top TrackWiz rating of 89.71 — the highest single-horse rating on today's card. Froylan Tellez Ramirez rides for trainer Brittany N. Tellez, a barn that is clearly in form based on their presence throughout the card. A 22% career win rate is solid, and when the ratings, the market, and the trainer form all point the same direction, you go with it.

place6Dm Chasing MoneyML 4/1

Dm Chasing Money (#6) counters with an 83.23 rating and an impressive 30% career win rate — the best win percentage in this specific field. Claudio Ponce Aguilar rides for trainer Kie Mushinski, and at 4/1, there's legitimate reason to include this horse underneath the favorite. If Lil Perry Wagon has any kind of bad trip, Dm Chasing Money has the class profile to capitalize.

show2Lil Kool MargeML 10/1

Lil Kool Marge (#2) is the sleeper of this race — a 75.92 TrackWiz rating combined with a 27% career win rate, yet the morning line has this horse at 10/1. Luis L. Vivanco picks up the mount for trainer Esteban Rubio, and the disconnect between the numbers and the odds is notable. If you're building trifecta tickets, Lil Kool Marge at double-digit morning line odds is exactly the type of value play that pays.

Race 7

2:06 AM EDT

Claiming · 550 yd · Dirt

A competitive 10-horse claiming field at 550 yards where the top of the TrackWiz ratings is spread across several legitimate contenders — this race has the feel of a value-seeker's paradise with our top pick at 8/1.

win3Lbh Hice Un ChilitoML 8/1

Lbh Hice Un Chilito (#3) leads our analysis with a 79.79 TrackWiz rating despite being listed at 8/1 on the morning line — a significant overlay if the model is right. Froylan Tellez Ramirez has been one of the busier and more effective jockeys on this card, and trainer Angel Almaguer sends this one out in good position. A 14% career win rate is respectable in a tough claiming environment, and the gap between this horse's rating and the morning line price is the kind of thing that makes a race worth playing.

place9Tex Hex BrujaML 5/1

Tex Hex Bruja (#9) sits at 72.43 on our ratings with a 12% career win rate and draws Oliver E. Martinez for trainer Enrique Alvarado. The 5/1 morning line is fair, and this horse profiles as a natural underneath play to complement our top pick. In a race where the favorite on the morning line — Pull a Cork at 3/1 — actually rates third in our model, the top two in our analysis both come at prices.

show8Pull a CorkML 3/1

Pull a Cork (#8) comes in at 67.85 on the TrackWiz scale and carries the lowest morning line odds in our top three at 3/1. Claudio Ponce Aguilar rides for Esteban Rubio — the same trainer who runs Hawks Glory in this race — and the 12% career win rate keeps this horse honest. It's our third pick but the public's top choice, which means it's a logical show anchor in your exacta and trifecta combinations.

Race 8

2:32 AM EDT

Maiden · 250 yd · Dirt

An all-maiden field at just 250 yards where every horse is winless — in a race like this, the TrackWiz ratings do the heavy lifting, and there's a fairly clean separation between the top tier and the rest.

win4Outside the LinesML 2/1

Outside the Lines (#4) tops the TrackWiz ratings in this maiden field at 58.33 and is also the morning line favorite at 2/1, so the market and the model are aligned here. Luis L. Vivanco gets the mount for trainer Ben Olaveson, and at 250 yards, gate speed and early burst are everything — there's no time to make up ground. In a race where no one has won before, the horse with the best underlying profile is your best starting point.

place1Our Eagle Has LandedML 7/2

Our Eagle Has Landed (#1) is rated 55.83 — the second-best figure in the field — and comes in at 7/2 on the morning line, which is fair value. Miguel R. Vallejo rides for trainer Jose Ivan Martinez, and the half-point rating difference between this horse and Outside the Lines suggests a legitimate race between them. A natural place play in the exacta.

show2Nbc Mr Bruce BellML 9/2

Nbc Mr Bruce Bell (#2) rounds out the top three at 54.17 on the TrackWiz scale, just a tick behind Our Eagle Has Landed. Angel A. Fierro rides for Raul E. Galvan, and the 9/2 morning line makes this one a value show play in trifectas. In a tight maiden field at 250 yards, separating the top three by more than a few lengths will be difficult, and all three of these horses project to factor.

Race 9

2:58 AM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 300 yd · Dirt

Another all-maiden field at 300 yards, this time in the maiden claiming ranks — the ratings are tightly bunched across the top half of the field, and the difference between first and show comes down to single digits.

win7FlaxenML 3/1

Flaxen (#7) leads our TrackWiz analysis at 56.67 and is listed at 3/1 on the morning line — a nice alignment of model and market. Alejandro Landeros Zuniga rides for trainer J. Ryan Basham, and in a field where none of these horses has ever won, any edge in the ratings is worth following. The 56.67 figure might not look impressive in isolation, but it leads this field and that's what matters in a maiden claiming sprint.

place5Our Secret BabyML 7/2

Our Secret Baby (#5) comes in at 55.83 — just under a full point behind Flaxen — and draws H. Javier Hernandez for trainer Adan Guzman. The 7/2 morning line is nearly identical to our win pick's price, which is interesting and suggests this race is genuinely close. A strong place play, and a natural partner to Flaxen in the exacta.

show8Zenith ZtormiML 4/1

Zenith Ztormi (#8) holds a 55.00 rating and is the third-best figure in the field, with Claudio Ponce Aguilar in the irons for trainer Juan Johnny M. Hernandez. At 4/1 on the morning line, the price is right for a trifecta anchor. The top three rated horses in this field are separated by less than two rating points — in a maiden sprint, any one of them could hit the board in any order.

Race 10

3:24 AM EDT

Maiden · 250 yd · Dirt

The card closer is a maiden sprint at 250 yards with a clear morning line favorite who also tops our ratings — but a tight cluster of horses in the mid-50s means the exacta and trifecta could be very live.

win9Noah MoonML 8/5

Noah Moon (#9) leads our TrackWiz analysis at 59.00 and carries the shortest morning line in the field at 8/5 — the public clearly agrees this is the horse to beat. Francisco Giles rides for trainer Martin Rodriguez, a barn that has been active throughout this Sam Houston card. At 250 yards, the race is over in a blink, and the horse that gets out cleanly often decides the outcome — Noah Moon's ratings edge makes this one the logical play.

place8Sunny BoiML 3/1

Sunny Boi (#8) is rated 56.67, the second-best figure in the field, and draws Olvin Josue Martinez for trainer Joseph D. Manucy — another barn that appears multiple times on today's card. The 3/1 morning line offers fair value for a horse that projects to fight for the exacta, and the two-point gap separating Sunny Boi from Noah Moon is narrow enough to keep things interesting in a 250-yard sprint.

show1SanremoML 4/1

Sanremo (#1) comes in at 55.00 on the TrackWiz scale and is listed at 4/1, making it the third horse in a tight cluster at the top of this field. Raul Padilla Hernandez Jr. rides for trainer Carlos Cruz Lopez, and while the outside draws in a short sprint can be tricky, the ratings support including Sanremo in your trifecta. This is a solid card-closer where the top three rate out cleanly — structure your tickets accordingly.

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It's a warm, fast Friday at Sam Houston and there's plenty to work with across 10 races. Your Tempting Me Gl in Race 1, Runaway Prize Dash in Race 2, and Fabulous Casina in Race 3 are your free best bets to get the day started. If you want the full picture — pace projections, exotic tickets, and our take on that juicy 8/1 play in Race 7 — the complete breakdown is waiting for subscribers. Good luck at the windows today.

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