Retama Park Picks & Predictions — August 21, 2026

Rude Boi rates at 74.51 and is tucked into a middle post at program number 8, which at 250 yards is close enough to the rail to not be a major concern. Trainer Abraham Rangel doubles up in this race with Political Policy, but our analysis points to Rude Boi as the stable's stronger entry. The 9/2 morning line makes him an overlay candidate if the top choice absorbs most of the win pool money.

Pyc Blue Jess draws the outside post (10) but carries a 73.24 rating and a 14% career win rate — tied for the best in the field alongside Black Chilita. Trainer Jose Luis Sanchez III gives Noe Villatoro the mount, and Villatoro is one of the hotter riders on this card today. At 3/1 on the morning line, he's the shortest-priced show pick we're using today, but the talent justifies inclusion in all exotics.

Bok Black Diamond is the 3/1 morning line choice but rates second at 75.42 in our model — 12 points behind Asc Jettazoom. Victor Manuel Urieta Jr. gets the call for trainer John Boegner, and Boegner is no stranger to winning maiden races at this track. She's a logical place play regardless of how the win pool shakes out, and pairing her underneath Asc Jettazoom in exactas looks like the smart play.

Muddys Jack and Coke is priced as the 2/1 morning line favorite, yet our analysis rates her third in the field at 69.10. That divergence between public perception and our model is worth noting — she's not without talent, but she may be overbet at those odds. Including her in the show spot of trifecta tickets is the right way to use her: get paid if she runs into the board without putting win money on what looks like an overlay.

Ms Easter Deb rates just one point behind at 77.69 and is actually the 3/1 morning line second choice, suggesting she'll absorb significant public action. Trainer Antonio S. Martinez puts Alejandro Landeros Zuniga in the irons — a solid combination for this level. The separation between her and Btd Painted Rivanne is so narrow that the order could flip on any given day; stacking them both in exactas in both directions is the prudent move.

Jeremiah clocks in third on our ratings at 73.73 and is the morning line favorite at 5/2, which makes him the most interesting horse in the race from a wagering standpoint — the public loves him, our model slightly downrates him. Trainer Jose Luis Sanchez III pairs him with Claudio Ponce Aguilar, a competent rider. He fits as the show anchor in trifectas but we'd fade him on top given what looks like a modest overlay advantage for Btd Painted Rivanne.

Th Rum Runner is our place selection at 84.90 — just three points behind the top choice — and comes in at 9/2 on the morning line, which looks like honest value. Trainer Arturo Archundia Garcia gives Jose Elias Villarreal the mount, and a 12% career win rate shows this horse has found the winner's circle before. If The Fiscal Chick gets crowded at the break, Th Rum Runner is perfectly positioned to grab the runner-up spot.

Ml Preciado rates third at 80.55 and is priced at 5/1 on the morning line — the deepest-priced horse in our top three, making her the value anchor of exotic tickets. Trainer Jose Misael Martinez puts Claudio Ponce Aguilar up, and the 11% career win rate suggests she's capable of delivering on her talent. In a race this competitive with three horses bunched within a few rating points, she belongs in the bottom of all trifecta combinations.

Love Lies Bleedin rates at 70.32 and brings an impressive 22% career win rate to the table, proving this is a horse that competes hard even when not winning outright. Trainer Bradley C. Bolen puts Jose R. Herbert in the saddle at 4/1 on the morning line — a touch of value for a horse who should naturally find the top two. She's a strong exacta play underneath Chasing Glory and worth singling in the place spot of any trifecta.

This Eagles a Leader rounds out our ticket at 5/1 on the morning line with a 58.97 rating and a solid 16% career win rate. Trainer John A. Stinebaugh, who also has Goldd Card in this race, likely views this horse as a legitimate contender — and Ali Rivera is an experienced hand at this circuit. The 5/1 price gives you real trifecta value if the top two run as expected and Eagle sneaks into the board.

Noble Fast Man rates at 69.69 and gets Eleazar Rivera Hernandez up for trainer Jose Antonio De La Rosa. The 9/2 morning line is fair and perhaps slightly generous given that Noble Fast Man checks in third-best on our ratings in a field that quickly drops off in quality. With a 9% career win rate in optional claiming company, the talent is there — the trick is converting that talent to a top-two finish, which looks very achievable in this spot.

Dont Let Me Downn carries a 64.48 rating and a 12% career win rate into this optional claiming event. Trainer Richard D. Sedillo sends Ruben Delarosa Jr. out at 3/1 on the morning line, making him the second shortest-priced horse in our show selection. That's slightly compressed value, but the talent justifies a show wager — and pairing him with the top two in trifectas is where the real payoff opportunity lives.

Lil Kool Marge rates at 61.22 and brings a 28% career win rate — second-best among our picks in this race — for trainer Esteban Rubio with Ali Rivera in the irons. The 3/1 morning line is fair for a horse with that kind of historical win frequency. Even against a standout like Ring a Ling Ding, Lil Kool Marge has the proven ability to compete and find the board.

Gettsome rounds out the ticket at 9/2 on the morning line with a 53.96 rating and an 18% career win rate for trainer Isidro Hinojosa. Luis L. Vivanco picks up the mount, and this combination is workmanlike without being flashy. The 9/2 price gives show bettors a little extra on top of what should be a reliable top-three effort from a horse that wins nearly 1-in-5 starts.

Dr Pepper 123 rates at 81.98 — just four and a half points behind Eagles Up — and carries a 25% career win rate for trainer J. W. Plunkett. Luis Angel Flores Garcia handles the riding duties at 5/1 on the morning line, which looks like potential overlay value in a race where the public may concentrate heavily on the chalk. In stakes company, horses with 25% win rates have proven they belong, and Dr Pepper 123 belongs right in the mix here.

Shakers No Secret is the 2/1 morning line favorite but rates third among our selections at 80.24 — a meaningful gap behind the top two on our model. The 26% career win rate is strong, and trainer Marc E. Jungers once again doubles up (he has three in this race), which means he's spreading risk across multiple live threats. Including Shakers No Secret in the show spot captures the scenario where public perception was right, but our model had the top two in the correct order.

Flaxen rates at 66.24 — second-best in the field by a healthy margin — and is assigned to Rigoberto Camarillo Ortega for trainer J. Ryan Basham, who also had Mr Canas in the opener. Basham runs a tight operation and his horses show up ready. The 9/2 morning line makes Flaxen an attractive place bet in a race where the win pool is likely to be top-heavy, and she fits perfectly in the exacta underneath Kj Money Maker.

Rocknnroll 701 rates at 56.67 and is priced at 3/1 on the morning line — which means the market values him slightly more than our model does relative to Flaxen. Trainer Zackery N. Rios puts Jose R. Herbert in the irons, and Herbert is no stranger to finding the board at Retama. As a show selection in a maiden race, a 3/1 price is below ideal value, but the talent is there to hit the board if the top two run as expected.