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Retama Park Picks & Predictions — August 1, 2026

August 1, 202610 racesAll Retama Park picks

It's a hot Saturday afternoon at Retama Park — and we mean that literally. Temps are sitting at 93°F under partly cloudy skies, which means the track surface is going to be firm and fast. For quarter horse fans, that's music to your ears. When the ground is hard and the air is thick, early speed rules, and today's card is packed with short-course sprints that reward horses who break clean and hit the ground running.

We've got 10 races on the board, all on dirt, ranging from the lightning-quick 250-yard dashes to a pair of 550-yard tests that will ask a little more of the field. The conditions mix is heavy on Maiden Claiming action — six of the ten races — with three Allowance spots and a pair of straight Claiming events rounding things out. Plenty of angles to attack.

TrackWiz has full ratings on every runner in the field. Three races are open to all readers today, with the remaining seven available to premium subscribers. Let's get into it.

Best Bets

Race 1

11:45 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 330 yd · Dirt

A wide-open maiden claimer at 330 yards with a full field of first-timers, but two horses carry TrackWiz ratings that dwarf the rest of the field — making this less of a puzzle than it first appears.

win5Holy MondayML 7/2

Holy Monday draws the 5-hole and tops the TrackWiz ratings at 86.35 — the highest mark in the field by a comfortable margin. Trainer Adan Guzman keeps a steady presence at Retama Park, and jockey Noe Villatoro is a familiar name in the irons at this spot. In a sprint as short as 330 yards, breaking cleanly and showing early foot is everything, and our analysis likes this horse's profile to do exactly that at a reasonable 7/2 morning line.

place4Vp Dragon KingML 5/2

Vp Dragon King rates second-best in this field with a 78.81 TrackWiz score, a significant gap above the rest of the non-contenders. Trainer Zackery N. Rios sends this one out with Nestor Duran aboard, and at 5/2 on the morning line this horse figures to be heavily supported. A place ticket here offers solid coverage if Holy Monday stumbles out of the gate.

show7One Classy DynastyML 3/1

One Classy Dynasty isn't far off the pace projection at 48.08 and lands in the show slot as a reasonable safety net in a race where the top two should fight it out. Trainer Randall R. Read pairs with Claudio Ponce Aguilar, a jockey who knows his way around this oval. At 3/1, the price is modest but the spot in exotics makes sense.

Race 2

12:15 AM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 350 yd · Dirt

The top TrackWiz-rated horse in Race 2 carries a substantial edge over a 350-yard field of maiden claimers, but a pair of mid-tier horses could make the exacta interesting if the favorite gets shuffled at the break.

win8Mighty Bug ReasonML 5/2

Mighty Bug Reason posts the field's best TrackWiz rating at 85.44, a sizeable advantage over the second-best horse in here. Trainer Jorge Rivas Correa puts Luis Angel Maldonado in the saddle, and at 5/2 on the morning line the market is already catching on. Over 350 yards, a horse that profiles this cleanly above the field is hard to fade — this is our top selection of the early card.

place2Dulces HeroML 4/1

Dulces Hero rates a solid 63.41, a comfortable step above the rest of the field aside from the top pick. Trainer Zackary Stinebaugh sends this one out at 4/1 with Rosendo E. Pina Garcia up, and the value proposition here is real — the place payoff on a 4/1 morning line horse in a race with a short-priced favorite can be meaningful. This is the horse to key underneath in exactas.

show7Rcv Blue FireML 3/1

Rcv Blue Fire slots in at a 56.67 rating and goes with the strong Adan Guzman-Noe Villatoro combo, a pairing that consistently shows up in the tickets at Retama. At 3/1, the morning line actually prices this horse like a contender, and while Mighty Bug Reason looks like the class of the field, Rcv Blue Fire has enough profile to hit the board in a short sprint.

Race 3

12:42 AM EDT

Allowance · 550 yd · Dirt

This 550-yard allowance is the card's first route-style quarter-horse sprint, and it features a legitimate standout alongside a sneaky longshot who brings the field's best career win percentage to the gate.

win5RosserML 3/1

Rosser tops the TrackWiz ratings at 87.08 and goes at a fair 3/1 on the morning line — not a giveaway price, but the numbers support it. Jockey Eliazar T. Vera teams with trainer Jose Dolores Camacho, and Rosser carries a 9% career win rate, consistent with a horse that competes regularly. Over 550 yards, early positioning matters, and our analysis projects this as the class of an allowance field that's closer on paper than the ratings suggest.

place4Ss KratosML 5/2

Ss Kratos rates 78.39 and runs for the powerful Adan Guzman barn with Noe Villatoro aboard — that's one of the stronger combinations you'll see on this card. The 8% career win rate is modest, but in allowance company at this level the horse has clearly been competitive. At 5/2, the morning line has Ss Kratos priced near the top, making the place slot a logical landing spot.

show7Chilito PotML 10/1

Here's the angle that stands out in the show position: Chilito Pot brings a 28% career win rate into this spot — far and away the best winning percentage in the field. Trainer Francisco Campos Jr. drops this horse into a race where the TrackWiz rating of 53.61 looks pedestrian, but a horse with that kind of lifetime winning percentage clearly knows how to find the wire. At 10/1, this is a legitimate value inclusion in any exacta or trifecta wager.

The three free races today give us a nice cross-section of what this card is all about. We kick off with Holy Monday in the opener — a 330-yard Maiden Claimer where our ratings peg this one as the standout at 86.35 despite a 7/2 morning line that suggests there's genuine value on the board. Race 2 shifts to 350 yards where Mighty Bug Reason comes in as the morning-line choice at 5/2 and earns an 85.44 TrackWiz rating — solid, if not spectacular. Then Race 3 steps up in class to an Allowance event at 550 yards, and that's where things get genuinely interesting. Rosser tops our board with an 87.08 rating and is one of the stronger figures we've logged all card. The 3/1 morning line gives this one real win potential without asking you to lay a heavy price.

The common thread across all three free races: early speed matters. With the track playing firm in this heat, horses that break alertly and put rivals on the defensive from the gate are your friends today. Keep that in mind when you're reading our race-by-race breakdowns.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

1:09 AM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 250 yd · Dirt

A nine-horse maiden claimer at the ultra-short 250-yard dash, where gate speed is king and the TrackWiz model has identified a clear standout — though a pair of double-digit undercard hopefuls make the exotic tickets worth building out.

win9Rr ChromeML 5/2

Rr Chrome leads the TrackWiz ratings in this field at 87.81, the top mark across all nine horses by a wide margin. Jockey Alejandro Medina pairs with trainer Martin Rodriguez in what looks like a confident send-out. At 250 yards there's no room to recover from a poor start, and the model strongly projects this horse to break on top and clear — making the 5/2 morning line look like fair value rather than a laydown.

place4Miss AbrilML 5/1

Miss Abril rates 65.70, second-best in the field, and the connections are noteworthy — trainer Brittany N. Tellez sends her out with Froylan Tellez Ramirez up, keeping it in the family. The 5/1 morning line offers genuine place value if Rr Chrome runs as expected and Miss Abril fires at her number. In a big field sprint, finishing second is very much in play for the second-rated horse.

show5Favorite DashinML 7/2

Favorite Dashin sits at a 55.83 rating and goes postward at 7/2 with Olvin Josue Martinez in the irons for trainer Jose Ivan Martinez. The rating gap between this horse and the top two is real, but in a 250-yard scramble anything can happen at the break, and Favorite Dashin's profile as the third-best rated horse in a nine-horse field makes the show spot a reasonable hedge.

Race 5

1:36 AM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 550 yd · Dirt

Race 5 stretches out to 550 yards for maiden claimers, and while the gate-to-wire pace dynamics change at this distance, the TrackWiz model sees a clear separation between the top two horses and the rest of the field.

win3Noble Fast ManML 9/2

Noble Fast Man rates 84.90 in a field where the next-best horse is nearly 13 points back — that kind of gap in the ratings doesn't happen often. Trainer Jose Antonio De La Rosa sends this one out with Eleazar Rivera Hernandez aboard at 9/2, which is actually a touch above where the model would have this horse priced. Over 550 yards, stamina becomes a factor alongside raw speed, and Noble Fast Man's profile suggests this is a horse built for the slightly longer trip.

place7Jess Go AwayML 3/1

Jess Go Away rates 72.22, a comfortable step above the rest of the field in the place slot. Oliver E. Martinez takes the mount for trainer Arnold Lewis, and at 3/1 this horse is well-backed by the morning line — suggesting the market sees the same two-horse race our analysis identifies. In a maiden race at 550 yards, the second-best horse often finds board money, and Jess Go Away is the logical exacta partner.

show4JeremiahML 6/1

Jeremiah rates 55.05 and profiles as the clear third option in what looks like a race with a defined top tier. Trainer Jose Luis Sanchez III sends this one out with Claudio Ponce Aguilar at 6/1, and the price is enough to make the show spot worth including in trifecta tickets. The gap to the top two is real, but in a nine-horse maiden field at 550 yards, anything can happen in a pack scramble.

Race 6

2:03 AM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 250 yd · Dirt

The biggest field on the card at ten horses goes 250 yards in a maiden claimer, and the TrackWiz model zeroes in on a near-prohibitive favorite — but at 2/1 the win price may push bettors toward more creative ticket structures.

win2Volcom TacML 2/1

Volcom Tac dominates this field with an 88.54 TrackWiz rating — the highest mark posted in any race on today's card. Trainer Brittany N. Tellez has been a consistent presence at Retama Park, and Froylan Tellez Ramirez rides, keeping the connections tight. At 2/1 on the morning line the win price won't be generous, but our analysis sees this horse as a clear standout, and in 250-yard sprints dominance often means exactly that — a wire-to-wire win.

place4Sixes Fly HigherML 3/1

Sixes Fly Higher rates 56.67, which puts this horse clearly in the second tier but with a meaningful edge over the rest of the field. Victor Manuel Urieta Jr. — one of the busier jockeys on this card — takes the mount for trainer Brian Stroud at 3/1. The place ticket on a 3/1 horse in a race dominated by a 2/1 favorite can generate value in the pools, and Sixes Fly Higher has the profile to be the one chasing Volcom Tac home.

show6First a TarzanitoML 9/2

First a Tarzanito sits at 54.17 and goes at 9/2 with Claudio Ponce Aguilar up for trainer Miguel Angel Medina. The rating is nearly identical to the place pick, which makes this a close call for the third spot — but the slightly higher morning line price gives First a Tarzanito a touch more exotic value in trifecta boxes. A 10-horse maiden sprint produces enough chaos that having the third-rated horse covered in the show slot is smart wagering.

Race 7

2:30 AM EDT

Claiming · 250 yd · Dirt

Race 7 is a straight claiming event over 250 yards with experienced horses carrying real career win percentages — this isn't a bunch of maidens, and the pace figures to be fierce from gate to wire.

win1Haleys Lil EagleML 4/1

Haleys Lil Eagle tops the TrackWiz ratings at 85.62 and carries a 12% career win rate — respectable numbers for a claimer at this level. Trainer Wendy Alejandra Garcia sends this one out with Rosendo E. Pina Garcia in the irons at 4/1, which represents fair value for a horse that profiles as the class of the field. At 250 yards the horse with the most ability off the gate wins, and the model projects Haleys Lil Eagle to be exactly that.

place9All Lights OutML 8/1

All Lights Out rates 76.21 and goes at 8/1 on the morning line — that's a significant gap between the TrackWiz score and the morning line price, which is exactly the kind of value angle we look for. Trainer Marc E. Jungers pairs with Raul Padilla Hernandez Jr., and despite a modest 4% career win rate, the horse's overall rating suggests it has been competitive at a higher level. At 8/1, this horse makes a compelling place overlay.

show4Pyc Blue JessML 3/1

Pyc Blue Jess brings the second-best career win rate in the field at 16%, and the 63.73 TrackWiz rating puts this horse solidly in contention. Noe Villatoro rides for trainer Jose Luis Sanchez III at 3/1, and a horse with that kind of winning frequency doesn't end up in the show spot by accident — it's a legitimate threat to hit the board. Include this one in all trifecta tickets.

Race 8

2:57 AM EDT

Claiming · 250 yd · Dirt

A ten-horse claiming battle at 250 yards features two horses with nearly identical TrackWiz ratings at the top, setting up what could be a dead-heat sprint to the wire — making the exacta box a smart play.

win5Runaway Prize DashML 7/2

Runaway Prize Dash edges to the top of our ratings at 86.35 and goes at 7/2 with Oliver E. Martinez up for trainer Jose Luis Sanchez III. The 11% career win rate is solid for claiming company, and the combination of a top rating with a jockey as active and reliable as Martinez makes this the horse to beat. In a field this competitive, the slight edge in the model tips our analysis toward Runaway Prize Dash as the win selection.

place4T N a Money WagonML 5/2

T N a Money Wagon rates 85.30 — just one point below the top pick — and the Brittany N. Tellez-Froylan Tellez Ramirez connection has already shown up as a live combo on today's card. At 5/2, this horse is priced as a co-favorite, and rightly so — the gap between these two horses and the rest of the field is real. Exacta boxes and quinellas involving both top horses make plenty of sense here.

show10Volcoms Relagate YgML 4/1

Volcoms Relagate Yg rates 77.02 — a clear step below the top pair but meaningfully ahead of the rest. Trainer Jose Uriegas Jr. sends this one out with Eliazar T. Vera at 4/1, and a 10% career win rate suggests this horse knows how to compete. If either of the top two horses has a rough start, Volcoms Relagate Yg is the logical beneficiary and a necessary inclusion in trifecta plays.

Race 9

3:24 AM EDT

Allowance · 250 yd · Dirt

The penultimate race of the night is a 250-yard allowance — a step up in class from the claimers — and the field features a horse with a 33% career win rate going at a price that looks very much like an overlay.

win6Sadie Sweet WattersML 9/2

Sadie Sweet Watters tops our allowance ratings at 84.90 and brings a 33% career win rate to the gate — the best winning percentage among the primary picks on tonight's full card. Oliver E. Martinez picks up the mount for trainer Arnold Lewis, and at 9/2 the morning line underprices what the model sees as the clear class of this field. A horse that wins a third of its career starts at allowance level is exactly the type of horse TrackWiz analysis flags as a prime win play.

place5Tornado DynastyML 7/2

Tornado Dynasty rates 83.12 and comes in with an impressive 25% career win rate, making this a genuine threat to go all the way. Trainer Victor G. Fierro sends this one out with Claudio Ponce Aguilar at 7/2, and the morning line actually has this horse priced tighter than our win pick despite a lower rating — which may create some pool value on Sadie Sweet Watters. Tornado Dynasty is a legit place horse and a strong contender to reverse the order.

show4Bp Rich ManML 5/2

Bp Rich Man rates 69.21 and carries a 20% career win rate — the third-best in the field. Luis L. Vivanco rides for trainer Raul Rodriguez Jr. at 5/2 on the morning line, which is actually tighter than both of our top two selections. That morning line price suggests this horse has strong connections-based support, and in a race where two high-win-rate horses are fighting it out, a 20% winner landing on the board in the show spot is a very realistic outcome.

Race 10

3:51 AM EDT

Allowance · 350 yd · Dirt

The closing race of the card is a 350-yard allowance featuring a dominant TrackWiz favorite and a pair of horses with real career earning power — a fitting finale with genuine betting interest across multiple positions.

win4El Princpe CarlosML 3/1

El Princpe Carlos leads all horses in Race 10 with an 87.08 TrackWiz rating and owns a 14% career win rate — solid credentials for an allowance closer. Victor Manuel Urieta Jr. has been one of the most active jockeys on tonight's card, and trainer Martin Rodriguez sends this one out at 3/1 in what our analysis considers a fair price. At 350 yards, the distance is long enough for pace to be a factor, and El Princpe Carlos profiles as the horse most likely to control the tempo and not surrender it.

place8Call Me DiamanteML 5/1

Call Me Diamante rates 69.19 and brings a 14% career win rate — matching the top pick in that department. Trainer Richard G. Washington keeps J.R. Ramirez Jr. in the irons at 5/1, which is a live price for a horse that profiles well enough to finish second in a quality allowance field. The gap between this horse and the top pick is real but not insurmountable, and at 5/1 the place value here is genuine.

show3Hot CindiML 9/2

Hot Cindi rates 62.00 with an 11% career win rate for trainer Steven Salazar and jockey Oliver E. Martinez, who closes out a busy night in the irons. At 9/2 on the morning line, this horse is priced like a contender, and the show slot reflects the reality that three horses separate from the field in this allowance finale. Hot Cindi in the show position rounds out the trifecta key and gives conservative bettors a sensible safety net to end the card.

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Bottom line: this is a sharp, fast card built for horses that can explode out of the gate on a hard, sun-baked Retama surface. Rosser in Race 3 is our marquee free pick of the day, and premium subscribers have seven more races worth of detailed breakdowns waiting. Don't play this card blind — let TrackWiz do the work. Full analysis is one tap away for subscribers.

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