Daily Picks

Retama Park Picks & Predictions — July 23, 2026

Thursday, July 23, 20269 racesRetama Park

It's a scorcher out at Retama Park today — clear skies and 94°F mean the San Antonio heat is in full effect. That kind of baking sun can firm up a dirt strip in a hurry, and on a short-format quarter horse card like this one, every tenth of a second counts. Nine races, all on dirt, all sprints ranging from a quick 250 yards out to 400 yards. Blink and you'll miss them.

The card leans heavily on maiden claiming company, which means plenty of lightly raced and first-time starters finding their footing. That's actually good news for sharp bettors — maiden races create opportunity when you know what to look for. TrackWiz analysis has flagged some standout ratings across the board, and a few of today's morning lines look beatable if you do your homework.

Three races are open to all readers today, and our top free picks — Rustic Chic, Otts Moore, and Sheza Savage Yg — give you a solid foundation to build a card around. The premium half of the card is where it gets really interesting.

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Race 1

11:45 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 300 yd · Dirt

A wide-open maiden claiming sprint at 300 yards where TrackWiz ratings tell the story — Rustic Chic holds a significant edge over a field of first-timers with no prior speed data to separate them.

win2Rustic ChicML 5/1

Rustic Chic (No. 2) tops the TrackWiz ratings at 76.05 — a full 19 points clear of the next-best horse in this field — and that kind of separation in a maiden field is hard to ignore. Trainer Wendy Alejandra Garcia sends her out at 5/1 on the morning line, which looks like fair value given how much the ratings favor her. With all horses coming in without career wins or speed figures, the edge goes to the horse with the strongest underlying profile, and that's Rustic Chic.

place1Strike My FancyML 10/1

Strike My Fancy (No. 1) rates second-best in the field at 56.51 and draws the rail under jockey Nestor Duran — a clean break from post one can be a real asset in a short 300-yard burst. At 10/1 on the morning line, there's legitimate overlay potential here if the crowd underestimates trainer Gilberto Gonzalez's charge. A runner-up finish is a realistic ceiling in a maiden field this green.

show8Real ApolliticalML 7/2

Real Apollitical (No. 8) comes in as the morning-line second choice at 7/2 with a TrackWiz rating of 55.83, making her a natural inclusion in trifecta coverage. Victor Manuel Urieta, Jr. takes the mount, and he's a familiar name in the Retama Park irons. In a debut race where pedigree and connections matter as much as anything, she's worth including underneath at a reasonable price.

Race 2

12:15 AM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 330 yd · Dirt

This 330-yard Starter Optional Claiming race features a trio of horses with legitimate win percentages battling it out, and Otts Moore's combination of career winning percentage and top TrackWiz rating makes him the one to beat — but the top three could finish in any order.

win2Otts MooreML 4/1

Otts Moore (No. 2) is the class of this field by our numbers, posting the top TrackWiz rating at 85.62 and a career win percentage of 28% — the second-highest in the race. Trainer Jose Luis Sanchez III teams up with jockey Luis L. Vivanco, and this is a connection that knows how to place a horse. At 4/1 on the morning line, Otts Moore offers solid value as the top-rated horse with a proven winning profile.

place3Goodtime in TexasML 5/2

Goodtime in Texas (No. 3) owns a 27% career win rate, just a tick below Otts Moore's, and sits second in the TrackWiz ratings at 80.10. Morning-line favorite at 5/2, she's got the credentials to win outright, but with Otts Moore rated higher, the place spot is a natural fit. Trainer Ramiro Barajas Villarreal keeps her competitive at this level, and jockey Eliazar T. Vera should have her primed for a forward effort.

show1CholulaaML 10/1

Cholulaa (No. 1) is a sneaky inclusion at 10/1 on the morning line — that's a generous price for a horse with a 15% career win rate and a TrackWiz rating of 75.59, which ranks fourth overall but sits just 4.5 points behind third-best Louisiana Moves. Trainer Gilberto Gonzalez and jockey Nestor Duran reunite after their Race 1 entry, and the connections clearly have horses ready to fire. In a race where the top three are closely bunched, Cholulaa at double-digit odds is a live show play in exotic tickets.

Race 3

12:42 AM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 250 yd · Dirt

The lone maiden claimer at 250 yards on the card is dominated on paper by one horse — Sheza Savage Yg's rating stands well apart from the field — though Fast Looking Chilita's morning-line favoritism makes this a two-horse discussion with a sprinkle of intrigue behind them.

win9Sheza Savage YgML 5/1

Sheza Savage Yg (No. 9) is the standout play here, posting the field's highest TrackWiz rating at 84.17 — more than 21 points clear of the next-best horse — while somehow going off at 5/1 on the morning line. That's a significant disconnect between the ratings and the public's projected pricing, and it's exactly the kind of overlay TrackWiz analysis is designed to uncover. Trainer Edgar V. Mendoza puts Manuel Lara aboard, and for a 250-yard maiden sprint where raw ability is the primary separator, this horse's rating screams value.

place7Fast Looking ChilitaML 2/1

Fast Looking Chilita (No. 7) is the morning-line chalk at 2/1 and sports the second-best rating in the field at 62.88, making her a legitimate contender to hit the board. Victor Manuel Urieta, Jr. gets the call for trainer Ramiro Barajas Villarreal, and this is a strong rider-trainer combination. The gap between her and our top pick Sheza Savage Yg is notable, but she's fast enough to earn the place in a field where most horses are well below her on ratings.

show2Lil Tiny FlirtML 4/1

Lil Tiny Flirt (No. 2) holds the third-best rating in the field at 55.00 and goes off at 4/1, which keeps her interesting in trifecta and exacta combinations. Trainer Jesus Huitron Lira sends her out with Nestor Duran in the irons — a reliable pairing at this level. In a maiden sprint where anything can happen out of the gate, she's a reasonable hedge for the show spot.

Our three free races today cover Races 1 through 3, and they share a common thread: short-field maiden claiming sprints where early speed and gate sharpness rule the outcome. In these ultra-short distances — 250 to 330 yards — there's no pace scenario to speak of. It's a pure burst, and the horse that breaks cleanly almost always wins. That's the lens we're applying to Rustic Chic (Race 1, 5/1 ML) and Sheza Savage Yg (Race 3, 5/1 ML), both of whom show the kind of early kick that plays on a fast, sun-baked Retama strip.

Otts Moore in Race 2 is the standout of the free trio — an 85.62 TrackWiz rating in a Starter Optional Claiming spot at 4/1 is the kind of line that doesn't last long. Starter Optional Claiming means the horse is eligible to run for a claiming price but doesn't have to be — it's a class layer that often attracts horses dropping down with something left in the tank. Keep an eye on that one.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

1:09 AM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 350 yd · Dirt

Race 4 is a 350-yard maiden claiming affair that features three horses rated in the 80s — a genuinely competitive top tier that should make for a sharp exacta and trifecta race, even if one of them separates from the pack.

win3La PandemiaML 5/2

La Pandemia (No. 3) leads the TrackWiz ratings at 87.81 — the highest mark among the top contenders — and comes in at a very fair 5/2 on the morning line. Trainer Jose Marcial Garcia gives jockey Luis F. Palacios the assignment, and the numbers suggest this is the one to beat. In a field where the top three are separated by just over seven points, La Pandemia's edge at the top of the ratings makes her the most defensible win selection.

place6Mr NandinML 9/2

Mr Nandin (No. 6) rates second in the field at 82.78 and is posted at 9/2 — a touch of value for a horse this close to the top-rated runner. Jose R. Herbert pilots the entry for trainer Fernando Chavez, and the 350-yard distance is the longest sprint on the card today, slightly favoring horses with sustained acceleration. If La Pandemia hits the front and Mr Nandin chases, a place finish looks well within reach.

show2Bull DawggML 3/1

Bull Dawgg (No. 2) rounds out the top-three rated horses at 80.37 and is the 3/1 morning-line second choice — meaning the public actually favors him over Mr Nandin despite a lower TrackWiz rating. Trainer Jose Luis Sanchez III has multiple entries today, suggesting a barn in good form, and jockey Luis L. Vivanco is one of the busier riders on the card. Regardless of how the top two play out, Bull Dawgg is a logical show inclusion in all exotic plays.

Race 5

1:36 AM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 300 yd · Dirt

This 300-yard maiden sprint features a clear ratings standout in Volcom Tac, but the morning line tells a different story — Jeezus is the public's choice at 2/1 while our top-rated horse sits at 7/2, setting up a potential value scenario.

win6Volcom TacML 7/2

Volcom Tac (No. 6) posts the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 86.35 and goes off at 7/2 on the morning line — a full point-and-a-half behind morning-line favorite Jeezus. That gap between the public's assessment and our ratings is where the value lives. Trainer Brittany N. Tellez hands the reins to Ruben Delarosa, Jr., and this horse's rating is high enough to warrant a win single in all exotic structures. In a 10-horse maiden field with no career speed figures available, our ratings provide the most reliable separation.

place5JeezusML 2/1

Jeezus (No. 5) sits atop the morning line at 2/1 and carries the second-best TrackWiz rating at 70.50, making this a legitimate win threat even if we prefer Volcom Tac. Trainer Arnold Lewis sends Aniceto Gomez to post, and the public's confidence in this horse is real — heavy action here suggests connections believe this horse is ready. If Volcom Tac does beat him to the wire, Jeezus has the profile to hold on for the place.

show9Sheza Patriot 47ML 9/2

Sheza Patriot 47 (No. 9) earns the third-best rating on the card at 54.17 and is listed at 9/2 on the morning line — right in the zone for show-ticket value in a wide-open maiden field. Trainer Adan Guzman puts H. Javier Hernandez aboard, and with the top two rated horses separated from the rest of the pack, she's the logical trifecta closer. Don't overlook her in multi-leg wagers.

Race 6

2:03 AM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 250 yd · Dirt

The 250-yard maiden claimer in Race 6 is tighter than most races on the card — the top five rated horses are clustered within a five-point window, which makes pace and post position as important as raw ratings.

win7What the Hawk SashayML 5/2

What the Hawk Sashay (No. 7) leads the field with a TrackWiz rating of 57.50 and is the 5/2 morning-line choice, suggesting the public has picked up on the same angle. Trainer Ricardo Aguirre puts the consistent Nestor Duran in the saddle — Duran is one of the more active jockeys on today's card and brings strong local knowledge. In a tight field at 250 yards where the margin for error is essentially zero, having the top-rated horse with a capable rider is the clearest path to a winning ticket.

place1Shes a War EagleML 7/2

Shes a War Eagle (No. 1) rates 55.83 — just 1.67 points behind our top pick — and draws the rail, which in a short sprint can be a genuine tactical advantage if she breaks sharply. Victor Manuel Urieta, Jr. takes the mount for trainer Martin Rodriguez, and the combo has shown up multiple times today. At 7/2, she's a natural place-half in an exacta with What the Hawk Sashay.

show10Jordash JeansML 9/2

Jordash Jeans (No. 10) rounds out the picks at a 54.17 rating and 9/2 odds — nearly identical to Shes a War Eagle on both fronts, which tells you just how closely matched this field is. Trainer Janessa Lee Muniz sends out J.R. Ramirez, Jr., another jockey logging heavy miles today. The outside post in a sprint this short is worth monitoring, but the rating holds up well enough to warrant show coverage in trifectas.

Race 7

2:30 AM EDT

Maiden · 400 yd · Dirt

Race 7 stretches out to 400 yards — the longest sprint on the card — and two horses, Seis Fire Dash and One Ladys Eagle, stand well apart from the field on TrackWiz ratings while Free Flight's 3/1 morning line sets up an interesting public-vs-ratings gap.

win10Seis Fire DashML 7/2

Seis Fire Dash (No. 10) tops the field with a TrackWiz rating of 84.90 and is posted at 7/2 on the morning line, which looks workable given the strength of that rating. Trainer Janessa Lee Muniz gets Ruben Delarosa, Jr. for this one — notably, Muniz also has Jordash Jeans in Race 6, and active trainers with multiple entries on a card often indicate a barn running hot. The 400-yard distance rewards horses with sustained speed, and Seis Fire Dash's top rating suggests she has the engine for it.

place3One Ladys EagleML 4/1

One Ladys Eagle (No. 3) sits just under the top pick at a rating of 82.00 and draws the 4/1 morning line, making her a natural complement in exacta plays. Trainer John A. Stinebaugh and jockey Gilberto Linares team up here, and with a rating this close to the top horse, the place is very much in range. In a maiden race at the longer 400-yard trip, any horse rated in the 80s deserves board consideration.

show6TroffeeML 5/1

Troffee (No. 6) is the third-rated horse at 68.95 but goes off at 5/1 — making her slightly the more generous price relative to her standing in the ratings. Trainer Ben Olaveson puts Luis L. Vivanco up, the same combination handling Bailleys in Race 8, suggesting the stable is well-organized on the afternoon. She's a useful show inclusion in trifectas, and the 400-yard distance may actually suit a horse with her rating profile better than the shorter sprints.

Race 8

2:57 AM EDT

Allowance · 400 yd · Dirt

The lone allowance race on the card is the most competitive event of the day — three horses rated in the 80s, all with proven career win percentages above 25%, and a field where the morning line doesn't stray too far from our TrackWiz numbers.

win8Lil Perry WagonML 5/2

Lil Perry Wagon (No. 8) tops the field with the highest TrackWiz rating at 87.81 and owns a 29% career win rate across her starts — a strong foundation in a race where experience and consistency matter. Trainer Brittany N. Tellez is having a solid card today with multiple entries, and jockey H. Javier Hernandez takes the mount. At 5/2 on the morning line, this is the most defensible win play of the day — top rating, proven winning percentage, and a trainer in form.

place3Flying Lil SashayML 4/1

Flying Lil Sashay (No. 3) is the most intriguing horse in the field from a value standpoint — she posts a 33% career win rate, the highest of any horse in the race, and yet she's listed at 4/1 while carrying a 85.62 TrackWiz rating. Trainer Mario J. Loza sends her out with Nestor Duran, who's been active all card. She's a legitimate win threat, and the place position in this analysis reflects just how strong Lil Perry Wagon rates — not any shortcoming of her own.

show7BailleysML 9/2

Bailleys (No. 7) brings the most impressive career win percentage in the field at 42% — meaning nearly half her starts have resulted in a win — and rates third on TrackWiz at 81.93. Trainer Ben Olaveson teams with Luis L. Vivanco (the same combination from Race 7's Troffee), and a horse winning 42% of its races belongs in every exotic ticket. The 9/2 morning line is a gift if she's anywhere close to her best form.

Race 9

3:24 AM EDT

Maiden · 300 yd · Dirt

The finale is a 300-yard maiden event where Catching Your Dreams holds a dominant ratings edge at 84.17, but the crowded morning line at 5/1 and a competitive mid-range tier make the exotics genuinely interesting.

win8Catching Your DreamsML 5/1

Catching Your Dreams (No. 8) posts the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 84.17 — nearly 27 points clear of the third-best horse — and is priced at 5/1 on the morning line, suggesting the public may be undervaluing the rating gap. Trainer John A. Stinebaugh puts Gilberto Linares in the saddle, and this duo also handles One Ladys Eagle in Race 7, indicating a stable with live horses throughout the card. In a maiden race with this much separation at the top of the ratings, Catching Your Dreams is a strong win single.

place4Fdd BajaML 5/2

Fdd Baja (No. 4) is the 5/2 morning-line choice and rates second in the field at 57.50, which makes her the public's pick despite trailing our top selection by a wide margin in the ratings. Trainer Jesus Huitron Lira gives the assignment to Victor Manuel Urieta, Jr. — one of the most active and accomplished riders on today's card. The morning-line support is real, and if Catching Your Dreams encounters any trouble in a 10-horse field, Fdd Baja is the next logical finisher.

show10Ojo CalienteML 7/2

Ojo Caliente (No. 10) rates 55.83 and is posted at 7/2, landing in the third-best position by our numbers while offering fair exotic value. Trainer J. Ryan Basham sends out Alejandro Landeros Zuniga, and the outside post in a 300-yard sprint won't help, but the rating holds up well enough for show coverage. In a trifecta with the top two picks, Ojo Caliente is the most logical closer at a price that keeps the payouts alive.

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Bottom line: Retama Park is serving up nine fast and furious dirt sprints under a Texas summer sun, and TrackWiz has horses we like in nearly every race. Otts Moore is our top free play of the afternoon, and Lil Perry Wagon headlines the premium card as one of the two highest-rated runners of the day. Casual players, start with the free three and have fun. Grinders, the full card breakdown — pace projections, exotic tickets, and all — is waiting for subscribers at /pricing. Good luck out there.

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