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Prairie Meadows Picks & Predictions — September 18, 2026

September 18, 202611 racesAll Prairie Meadows picks

Prairie Meadows is open for business on a beautiful Friday afternoon — partly cloudy skies, 83°F, and what looks like a fast, fair dirt track primed for some sharp speed figures. Eleven races are on the board, mixing short-burst quarter-horse sprints early in the card with a full slate of Thoroughbred action as the day rolls on.

What makes today interesting is the range — you've got 250-yard dashes that are over before you blink, a pair of route races stretching out to a mile and 70 yards, and several claiming races where class positioning and pace dynamics are going to matter. Our TrackWiz ratings are tight at the top across multiple races, which means the exotics could pay beautifully if you can separate a few key contenders.

Three races are open to all readers today, giving everyone a real taste of what the card has to offer. The full 11-race breakdown is available to TrackWiz subscribers — and on a card this deep, it's worth having every angle covered before you head to the windows.

Best Bets

Race 1

10:00 PM EDT

Allowance · 300 yd · Dirt

A seven-horse QH sprint over 300 yards with a clear top-rated contender, but the morning line spreads the love — expect a competitive opener with multiple threats in the exotics.

win2Tyme to FlyML 5/2

Tyme to Fly enters as our top-rated horse in the field with a TrackWiz rating of 87.81 — a full seven points clear of the next rival. Armando Alvidrez gets the call for trainer Jason L. Olmstead, a pairing worth noting at 5/2 on the morning line. A 14% career win rate is modest, but in a short field over 300 yards where fractions of a second decide it, his class edge is hard to ignore.

place3AnasyasiaML 9/2

Anasyasia comes in as the second-best rated horse in the field at 80.52, giving her a legitimate shot to hit the board at 9/2. Cristian R. Esqueda takes the mount for Fernando Ivan Manriquez, and though her 8% career win rate is on the modest side, quarter-horse sprints at this distance are often decided by a nose — place tickets here offer solid value.

show5Can You Here Me NowML 5/1

Can You Here Me Now sits at 5/1 on the morning line with a TrackWiz rating of 75.41, making her the third-ranked horse in the field and a live show play. She's held to an 8% career win rate, but in a 300-yard burst where any stumble out of the gates reshuffles the order, locking her in for exotics makes plenty of sense.

Race 2

10:25 PM EDT

Claiming · 250 yd · Dirt

Ought to Be Believin looks like a dominant favorite in this 250-yard claiming sprint, but a 50% career win rate lurking at 12/1 in the field adds a wild-card element worth monitoring.

win1Ought to Be BelievinML 7/5

Ought to Be Believin carries the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 89.42 and goes postward as the 7/5 morning line favorite under Angel O. Ramirez for trainer Tony Dean Jones. While her 9% career win rate is understated for a chalk, that rating gap — nearly 32 points over the third-ranked horse — screams class advantage in a 250-yard dash where the best horse often just blasts away.

place2Th Fancy and KoolML 4/1

Th Fancy and Kool is interesting here at 4/1 with a 20% career win rate, one of the better marks in the field. Trainer Manuel Mojica Campos also conditions Ts Fire 123 in this race, splitting his barn's attention — but Th Fancy and Kool's superior 57.77 rating and that win percentage make her the logical place anchor behind the favorite.

show7Ill WillML 3/1

Ill Will at 3/1 is the third pick in our sequence and has a 12% career win rate with a TrackWiz rating of 46.04 — good for fourth in the field. Ryder Olmstead picks up the mount for Stacy Charette-Hill. At a price that may compress on the board given the short field, using Ill Will underneath in exactas keeps you covered if the top two hold their spots.

Race 3

10:50 PM EDT

Maiden · 330 yd · Dirt

Wide-open maiden sprint over 330 yards with an entire field of first-time winners, making class separation tricky — but the TrackWiz ratings reveal a meaningful gap at the top.

win1LacylynML 7/2

Lacylyn draws the rail with a field-best TrackWiz rating of 86.35 and goes off at 7/2 on the morning line — excellent value for the top-rated horse in a maiden field. Armando Alvidrez takes the mount for Jason L. Olmstead, a combination that showed up in Race 1 as well, suggesting Olmstead trusts this jock on his best horses. In a first-time-winner race at 330 yards, raw talent tends to shine through, and Lacylyn appears to have plenty of it.

place5Triple SeisML 5/1

Triple Seis is the second-ranked horse at 72.92 and goes off at 5/1 — solid value for a maiden. Angel O. Ramirez guides him for trainer Edward Ross Hardy, who also saddles Triple Shotofcorona in this race. Hardy splitting his attention could cut either way, but Ramirez is clearly on the better-rated of the two Hardy runners, which tells you something.

show7Last RegardML 8/1

Last Regard at 8/1 is the third-rated horse in the field at 68.96 and represents a genuine longshot angle worth stashing in trifectas. Cristian R. Esqueda gets the call for Fernando Ivan Manriquez, and in a wide-open maiden where upsets are part of the game, Last Regard's rating positions him as a sneaky closer if the speed horses get into a short-distance battle.

The first three races on the card are free for everyone, and they give us a nice cross-section of what Prairie Meadows is offering today. Tyme to Fly (Race 1, 5/2 morning line, 87.81 TrackWiz rating) kicks things off in a 300-yard allowance — a short, explosive format where our top-rated horses tend to hold up well when the track is playing fast. Ought to Be Believin follows in Race 2 with the highest TrackWiz rating of the free trio at 89.42, posting as the 7/5 morning-line favorite in a 250-yard claiming sprint where that edge in raw ability should be hard to overcome. Round out the free look with Lacylyn in the 330-yard maiden in Race 3 — a slight overlay at 7/2 given her 86.35 rating, and maiden quarter-horse races at this distance can be volatile, so that morning-line price looks workable.

The quarter-horse sprint format rewards horses that break cleanly and have elite early acceleration — there's almost no room to make up ground in 250 or 300 yards. Keep that in mind as you handicap these early races, because gate speed and recent workout sharpness carry extra weight in this format.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

11:15 PM EDT

Claiming · 250 yd · Dirt

This 250-yard claiming sprint hides a legit longshot story: The Master Painter sits at 15/1 despite a top-four TrackWiz rating, making the exotics unusually interesting.

win6Vic MorettiML 5/2

Vic Moretti is our top selection at 5/2 with the field's highest TrackWiz rating of 78.31. Armando Alvidrez, a busy rider on this card, takes the mount for Jason L. Olmstead — the same barn-jockey combo we've flagged elsewhere today. A 14% career win rate won't blow anyone away, but in a sub-three-second race, that rating advantage is the difference-maker.

place7The Master PainterML 15/1

The Master Painter at 15/1 morning line is one of the more intriguing values on the card — a 69.58 TrackWiz rating that ranks fourth in the field despite being the longest price among our picks. Cristian R. Esqueda rides for Fernando Ivan Manriquez, and if the top contenders clip heels or break slow in the gate, this price could look very generous in the place pool.

show8Relentless GirlML 9/2

Relentless Girl comes in with a 65.40 rating and a 20% career win rate, one of the stronger win percentages in this field. Angel O. Ramirez rides for Tyler Stein, who also trains Dashing Envy S — Stein is clearly engaged in this race with multiple entries, and Relentless Girl at 9/2 looks like the barn's secondary threat. Solid show play for trifecta coverage.

Race 5

11:41 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A tightly-bunched maiden claiming field going six furlongs, where the speed figures are nearly identical across the top horses — pace scenario and jockey decisions late could be the deciding factor.

win5Dont Mess WithblueML 2/1

Dont Mess Withblue tops our ratings at 58.33 and goes off at 2/1 with Ken S. Tohill in the irons for Larry D. Donlin, Jr. He's one of three horses in this field averaging 54 on speed figures, but that slight rating edge combined with Tohill's experience makes him the logical play in a compressed field. In maiden claiming company, small edges tend to compound over six furlongs.

place1Bee a CycloneML 3/1

Bee a Cyclone at 3/1 owns a 56.67 TrackWiz rating — just off the top — and sports an average speed figure of 53, one tick below the leaders. Ronnie Huckaby takes the mount for Kevin Eikleberry, and the 3/1 price gives you enough juice to make the place ticket worthwhile. If pace gets hot early, a horse with Bee a Cyclone's profile can sit just off the pace and pounce.

show4Smart EdgeML 8/5

Smart Edge is the morning line favorite at 8/5, which actually makes him the value play in the show pool if you believe the top two hold. Trainer Tristan Ashford sends him out under Alex Birzer with an average speed figure of 54, matching the field's best. His 53.97 rating is third in the field, and the favorite role suggests the connections have plenty of confidence here.

Race 6

12:07 AM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Two horses — Olympic Flame and Anchored in Love — have a massive rating advantage over the rest of this claiming field, setting up what could be a match race with a value play lurking underneath.

win4Olympic FlameML 9/5

Olympic Flame edges the field with an 88.83 TrackWiz rating and goes off at 9/5 morning line under Walter De La Cruz for trainer Pam Schutz. The 8% career win rate is the lowest concern here — the rating gap is so significant over the rest of the field (more than 15 points to the next cluster) that this looks like a horse that simply belongs in a tougher spot. At six furlongs with an average speed figure of 54, he should be running by horses in the stretch.

place3Anchored in LoveML 7/5

Anchored in Love is a hair behind at 87.12 and goes as the 7/5 morning line — actually shorter than our win pick, which is interesting. Alex Birzer rides for Tom Wellington, and a 14% career win rate in claiming company is respectable. The slight rating edge for Olympic Flame is why we have him second, but if Anchored in Love gets a clean trip on the front end, this order could easily flip.

show6Addy UpML 6/1

Addy Up at 6/1 is the value play in the show spot, rating out at 72.61 with an average speed figure of 54 — matching the best in the field on that metric. Israel Hernandez rides for Brandi Jo Fett, and a 7% career win rate won't excite anyone, but the speed figure parity with the top contenders suggests she can run with this group. At 6/1, she's worth slotting into trifectas.

Race 7

12:33 AM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Shesacinch owns a commanding rating advantage at 7/2 in a six-horse claiming field, but Taking It All is the morning line favorite — a compelling disconnect that makes this race one of the more interesting pricing debates on the card.

win5ShesacinchML 7/2

Shesacinch carries the top TrackWiz rating at 86.35 and is the clear standout on our numbers despite going off at 7/2 — not the shortest price in the field. Elvin Gonzalez rides for Tyrone Gleason, and a 21% career win rate is genuinely strong in claiming company. Her average speed figure of 55 is the best in the field, and over 5.5 furlongs on dirt, that kind of gate-to-wire profile is hard to beat.

place3Taking It AllML 2/1

Taking It All is the 2/1 morning line choice, which tells you the public and the conditions sheet believe in him — but our rating of 66.04 puts him second in the field, not first. Luis A. Fuentes rides for Ruben Fuentes, and the 15% career win rate is solid. His average speed figure of 53 trails Shesacinch, but if our top pick gets into early trouble, Taking It All has the class to capitalize.

show6Glad Von DML 8/5

Glad Von D at 8/5 morning line is interesting as a show selection — shorter odds than our win pick, yet third in our ratings at 58.40. Orlando Mojica climbs aboard for Kelli Martinez. The 14% career win rate and 54 average speed figure are serviceable, and being third on our ratings while going off as a co-favorite tells you the market is leaning her direction — that's useful information to keep in mind for all wager types.

Race 8

12:59 AM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

Contact Tracing dominates the ratings in a nine-horse claiming route going over a mile, but the real story is Battle Cruiser lurking at 8/1 as a legitimate place and show threat with hidden upside.

win3Contact TracingML 2/1

Contact Tracing is a standout at 88.54 — the highest rating in a nine-horse field by a significant margin — and goes at 2/1 morning line under Walter De La Cruz for Kelli Martinez. A 15% career win rate in route company is respectable, and the average speed figure of 53 is right in line with the field. At a mile and 70 yards, horses with this kind of overall profile tend to settle beautifully and close hard.

place9Battle CruiserML 8/1

Battle Cruiser is the value call at 8/1 with a 60.97 TrackWiz rating that ranks second in the field — a significant gap between him and the horses rated below. Jose Barnes rides for CC Perkinson, and while an 8% career win rate is low, that rating profile in a mile-plus race suggests he can sustain pace over distance. The 8/1 price makes this a genuine overlay in the place pool.

show6Pronti O MenoML 9/2

Pronti O Meno at 9/2 has the most impressive career win rate in the field at 27%, which is a number that commands respect in any class. Ronnie Huckaby gets the mount for Jashua Robinson, and the 53 average speed figure is consistent with the field's pace profile. He may not have the raw rating of the top two, but that win percentage says he knows how to finish — and finishing is all that matters in the show spot.

Race 9

1:25 AM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Dixie Surprise and Ready Time form a formidable one-two punch atop the ratings, but the wide-open 2/1 and 5/2 prices mean exotics could pay better than expected if the field sorts out messily.

win5Dixie SurpriseML 2/1

Dixie Surprise sits atop the field with an 88.54 TrackWiz rating at 2/1 morning line, guided by Ken S. Tohill for Riley Parsons. The 5% career win rate is strikingly low for a top-rated horse, which suggests she may be lightly raced or returning from a layoff — but the rating model accounts for quality over quantity. An average speed figure of 54 ties her with several rivals, making this a case where overall rating tells the fuller story.

place7Ready TimeML 5/2

Ready Time at 5/2 is our second pick and the second-best rated horse at 84.52 — a very tight margin behind the top selection. Orlando Mojica rides for Henry Guillory, Jr., a trainer worth watching on a card like this. The 11% career win rate is modest, but 54 average speed and a deep rating in a six-furlong dirt sprint make Ready Time a strong place anchor who could easily flip with the top selection depending on trip.

show6Missed My RideML 6/1

Missed My Ride at 6/1 brings the most intriguing career win percentage in the field at 25% — a strong number that says this horse competes when conditions click. Ronnie Huckaby rides for David D. McShane, and the 53 average speed figure is just a tick off the leaders. At 6/1, he's a legitimate show play and a strong trifecta include if the top two hold their billing.

Race 10

1:51 AM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

Night Birdie holds the top rating in a nine-horse route field, but C'Mon Lucky at 2/1 morning line sets up a fascinating pricing standoff — the ratings and the odds don't fully agree, which is where opportunity lives.

win6Night BirdieML 7/2

Night Birdie leads the field with an 86.35 TrackWiz rating at 7/2 morning line under Orlando Mojica for Kelli Martinez. A 23% career win rate is excellent for a route horse in claiming company, and an average speed figure of 54 matches the best in the field. In a mile-and-70-yard route, horses who can sustain a consistent pace profile tend to pull away late — Night Birdie checks all those boxes.

place5Klimt's GirlML 5/1

Klimt's Girl at 5/1 holds a 72.81 rating — third-best in the field — and brings an 18% career win rate with an average speed figure of 53. Ken S. Tohill rides for Don Schnell, and the 5/1 price offers real value for a horse this well-rated in a route race. If Night Birdie falters and C'Mon Lucky can't hold, Klimt's Girl has the profile to emerge as the place horse.

show4C'Mon LuckyML 2/1

C'Mon Lucky goes off at 2/1 on the morning line — the public favorite — yet sits third in our ratings at 71.72. Walter De La Cruz rides for Kelly R. Von Hemel, and a 23% career win rate is tied for the field's best. The gap between her public price and our rating suggests the crowd is overweighting a factor we're not fully capturing, so keeping her in the show spot as a hedge makes plenty of sense.

Race 11

2:17 AM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Singzilla stands alone at the top of this maiden claiming field with a rating nearly 28 points higher than the next contender — in a wide-open race of first-time winners, that gap is a siren call.

win2SingzillaML 4/1

Singzilla is the dominant selection at 85.62 — an enormous margin over the rest of this maiden field — and goes at 4/1 morning line under Alex Birzer for Bonnie Birzer. The trainer-jockey combination is a family connection, and those tend to mean business when they show up with a horse this far ahead on ratings. An average speed figure of 53 is solid for maiden claiming company, and the 4/1 price looks like an overlay given how wide the gap is.

place4SaralML 5/2

Saral at 5/2 morning line is the public's second choice, with a 57.50 rating and an average speed figure of 53. Elvin Gonzalez rides for Kevin Eikleberry, and while the 5/2 price makes Saral the second-shortest horse on the board, she's actually second in our ratings as well — so the market and our model are in agreement here. A clean trip at six furlongs should keep her firmly in the picture for the place.

show7Kaylee's RoseML 5/1

Kaylee's Rose at 5/1 owns a 53.33 rating and an average speed figure of 53, making her a consistent speed profile in the field. Cristian Alvarado gets the mount for Tyrone Gleason, who also trains Classy Legend in this race — Alvarado on the better-rated of the two entries tells you which one the barn prefers. In a competitive maiden field, she's the right third-pick to anchor your trifecta.

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Today's card at Prairie Meadows has real teeth. Tyme to Fly, Ought to Be Believin, and Lacylyn headline the free races, while Contact Tracing, Dixie Surprise, and Olympic Flame are among the names our full-card subscribers will be leaning on in the premium half of the card. It's a warm, playable afternoon in Iowa — now let's make it profitable. Full analysis is waiting for subscribers at /pricing. Good luck at the windows.

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