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Prairie Meadows Picks & Predictions — August 28, 2026

August 28, 202611 racesAll Prairie Meadows picks

Results are in — see the official Prairie Meadows chart and payouts (our top pick won 2 of 11)→

It's a warm Friday afternoon at Prairie Meadows — partly cloudy skies and 82°F — and the track is putting up a full 11-race card to close out the week. From the lightning-quick 250-yard sprints of the Quarter Horse races to a mile-and-seventy-yard allowance test late in the card, there's plenty of variety to sink your teeth into today.

The dirt is the name of the game all day, and with the weather cooperating nicely, we're expecting a consistent surface throughout. A few intriguing pace setups and some genuine overlay opportunities make this card worth your full attention — whether you're playing a few races or grinding the whole card.

Best Bets

Race 1

10:00 PM EDT

Claiming · 330 yd · Dirt

The morning line favorite doesn't come close to matching the top TrackWiz ratings in this short 330-yard dirt sprint — expect the oddsboard to flip once bettors dig into the numbers.

win2Deluxe DivaML 8/1

Deluxe Diva draws our top rating in this field at 79.79, a significant gap above most of her rivals in what is a wide-open claiming sprint. Her 25% career win rate is the strongest combination of rating and winning consistency in the field — that's a horse who knows how to finish the job. Trainer Tony Dean Jones has her at 8/1 on the morning line, which makes her a legit overlay if the public stays asleep. At 330 yards, there's no room for error, and Diva looks primed to pounce.

place4Bv Darling MarfaML 5/1

Bv Darling Marfa sits second in our TrackWiz ratings at 75.36 and goes postward at a fair 5/1. Her 14% career win rate is modest, but in a race where we're looking for multi-horse coverage, she's got enough class to hold a placing spot. Trainer Robert Don Johnson also saddles Prized Five Bar in Race 2, showing active barn form at this meet.

show8Lil Quick as a WinkML 5/2

Lil Quick as a Wink is the public's second choice at 5/2 and carries a 22% career win rate — the kind of horse that hits the board regularly even when she doesn't win. At 63.36, her TrackWiz rating lands third in the field, and at this price she's a natural anchor for exacta and trifecta tickets. Don't overthink it — she's done it before.

Race 2

10:25 PM EDT

Optional Claiming · 870 yd · Dirt

Broken Arrow looms as a dominant favorite in this optional claiming route, but there's real value underneath if the chalk stumbles or gets shuffled in traffic.

win4Broken ArrowML 4/5

Broken Arrow is the class of this field and it isn't particularly close — an 88.69 TrackWiz rating is the top mark on the card for this race by a wide margin. At 4/5 on the morning line, he's not a value play, but our analysis says he earns his favoritism. Trainer Robert Don Johnson has him sharp, and jockey Ramiro Haro Garcia provides an experienced hand for the 870-yard dirt test. When a horse this dominant goes postward in a field this thin, you still have to respect it.

place2Glittr FactoryML 8/1

Glittr Factory is an interesting piece underneath at 8/1. She carries a 79.79 TrackWiz rating — second best in the field — which suggests she can match up with the chalk more than her odds imply. Martin Lazalde gets the call for trainer Jose Manuel Barron, and a 16% career win rate isn't flashy, but she's capable of earning a placing check against this group.

show5Praying for BuxML 9/2

Praying for Bux slots in at third in our ratings at 70.04 and makes a ton of sense as a show bet or exotics piece at 9/2. Her 14% career win figure reflects consistency without dominance, which is exactly the profile of a horse who fills out the trifecta. Trainer Tony Dean Jones has been active at this meet, and Cristian Alvarado is a capable rider who can get her into position.

Race 3

10:50 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 250 yd · Dirt

A full field of maidens who have yet to hit the winner's circle makes this 250-yard dash genuinely difficult — all zeroes in the career win column means we're leaning hard on TrackWiz ratings and connections.

win3WhowehavetopaybML 6/1

Whowehavetopayb tops our TrackWiz ratings at 82.71 in a field where every horse is searching for that first career win. Trainer Jorge Miranda sends him out with Valente Vorrath aboard, and the 6/1 morning line represents a potential overlay given his rating edge over the field. In a short sprint like 250 yards, the horse that breaks cleanly and shows the most early ability tends to win — our metrics say that's this one.

place1Rr Jess a LegacyML 5/2

Rr Jess a Legacy is close behind at a 78.94 rating and draws the rail with Giovany Estrada up for trainer Rodrigo Covarrubias. The 5/2 morning line makes her the public's favorite, and the rating supports that confidence. She's a natural backup if Whowehavetopayb misses the break, and at short odds she's a reasonable anchor in vertical tickets.

show9Ms ChieviousML 7/2

Ms Chievious rounds out our top three at 77.48 — the third-highest rating in the field — and goes at 7/2 with Angel O. Ramirez up for trainer Edward Ross Hardy. She's tightly bunched with the top two in our ratings, which signals a competitive race at the top. Including her in trifecta coverage is a smart play given how compressed the top ratings are.

We're giving everyone a free look at the first three races, and there's already a reason to pay attention. Deluxe Diva opens the card at a juicy 8/1 morning line in a short 330-yard dirt sprint — that's the kind of price that can set up a nice early bankroll boost if TrackWiz's 79.79 rating holds up in a wide-open claiming field. Race 2 flips the script with Broken Arrow installed as the 4/5 chalk going 870 yards, a well-rated effort at 88.69 that screams morning-line favorite for a reason. And in the 250-yard maiden claimer, Whowehavetopayb draws our eye at 6/1 — not a name you'll forget, and potentially a price worth grabbing if the morning line holds soft.

The early Quarter Horse races reward pace-smart bettors. At these ultra-short distances, it's all about who breaks cleanly and who has the raw speed figures to match. Our free picks in Races 1–3 reflect exactly that kind of analysis — no fluff, just the numbers and the angles that matter.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

11:16 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

The morning line favorite doesn't own the top TrackWiz rating in this maiden special weight sprint — Sassy Girl at 4/1 makes a compelling case as the value play against a shorter-priced rival.

win2Sassy GirlML 4/1

Sassy Girl commands the field with an 85.62 TrackWiz rating — well clear of any rival in this six-furlong maiden special weight. Trainer Riley Parsons sends her out with Ken S. Tohill, one of the meet's busier riders, and her average speed figure of 54 is on par with the field. The 4/1 morning line is generous given that rating edge, and she's exactly the kind of horse who rewards patience — solid numbers, fair price, strong connections.

place3Magic CowgirlML 9/5

Magic Cowgirl is the morning line favorite at 9/5 and owns the field's best average speed figure at 56. Trainer Kevin Eikleberry is a consistent presence in the win column at Prairie Meadows, and Glenn Corbett is a capable pilot. Her 58.67 TrackWiz rating trails Sassy Girl, but the speed advantage and public support make her a logical place bet to protect your ticket.

show6Angel's SpeedML 2/1

Angel's Speed is the second choice on the morning line at 2/1, but her 58.33 TrackWiz rating is nearly identical to Magic Cowgirl's — making the show position reasonable coverage on a race where the top two might battle each other into submission. Trainer Logan Ashford also has Sweet Serenity in this race, showing confidence in the barn's runners today. Alfredo Triana Jr. picks up the mount, and this filly could sneak a check at a decent price.

Race 5

11:42 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Freddy J towers over this claiming field on ratings, but Milton Street adds an interesting value dimension for players looking to spread in exotics.

win3Freddy JML 2/1

Freddy J is the standout of this race with an 88.54 TrackWiz rating — comfortably the best in the field. He goes at 2/1, which is a fair price for the class of the race. Trainer Tanner Tracy also saddles Spanish Kiss in this spot, suggesting the barn is double-shooting, but Freddy J is clearly the main event with Elvin Gonzalez — a sharp jockey — picking him up. His average speed figure of 55 leads all horses listed with a figure in this race.

place6Milton StreetML 3/1

Milton Street rates second in our analysis at 69.88 and brings a respectable 18% career win rate to the table. He's 3/1 on the morning line with Orlando Mojica, a jockey who knows Prairie Meadows well. The pace scenario at six furlongs could set up beautifully for a horse with his profile — let the speed horses battle early and come running.

show1Warren LML 4/1

Warren L lands third in our ratings at 60.15 and owns the field's best career win rate at 20% among the top contenders. Trainer Logan Ashford keeps him busy, and Alfredo Triana Jr. takes the reins. The 4/1 morning line offers a touch of value, and a 20% career win percentage tells you this horse is capable of finding the winner's circle — showing isn't a stretch.

Race 6

12:08 AM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Prince and Penny separates from a modest maiden claiming field on our ratings, though the morning line doesn't reflect the size of that gap — this looks like a single-horse race on paper.

win6Prince and PennyML 5/2

Prince and Penny is a significant standout here — an 87.81 TrackWiz rating dwarfs everyone else in this six-furlong maiden claiming field. Trainer Tanner Tracy puts his best foot forward with Elvin Gonzalez in the saddle, and the 5/2 morning line actually looks reasonable given the rating gap over Fallen Star and Strollinwithashlee. Average speed figure of 54 is right in line with the field, so no red flags there. This is a structured single in your exotics.

place2Fallen StarML 9/2

Fallen Star checks in at 57.43 on our ratings — second best in the field — and draws Ken S. Tohill for trainer Larry D. Donlin Jr. The 9/2 morning line is fair, and her average speed of 54 matches the rest of the field. She's the most logical beneficiary if Prince and Penny encounters any trouble, making her a solid place-side anchor.

show5StrollinwithashleeML 3/1

Strollinwithashlee shows the highest average speed figure in the race at 56, which is an interesting wrinkle for a horse going off at 3/1. Trainer Tanner Tracy also saddles Prince and Penny — this barn is stacking its best cards here — and Alex Birzer provides a competent ride. If the pace gets honest and she can sustain that speed figure, a piece of the prize is in play.

Race 7

12:34 AM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Oswald draws the top rating in a competitive maiden claiming mile, but the clustering of ratings in the middle of the field makes this an intriguing exotics race with several live contenders.

win1OswaldML 5/2

Oswald sits atop our TrackWiz ratings at 87.81 — tied for the highest mark of any horse on the card today — and goes as the 5/2 second choice behind Cause I'm Rollin on the morning line. Jose Barnes gets the call for trainer Don Schnell, and his average speed figure of 54 is consistent with the field. At a mile on the dirt, this is a test of stamina and positioning — our analysis says Oswald has the tools to handle both.

place5Rub of the GreenML 4/1

Rub of the Green is a solid second in our ratings at 77.22 and makes plenty of sense underneath at 4/1. Ken S. Tohill is one of the more dependable riders at this meet, and trainer David D. McShane also conditions Cinnamons Fireball here — he's clearly familiar with the competition. Her average speed of 54 gives her a baseline to work from in a grinder of a maiden mile.

show4Cause I'm RollinML 3/1

Cause I'm Rollin is the morning line favorite at 3/1 despite sitting third in our TrackWiz ratings at 71.72 — that gap between public support and our numbers makes him a logical show bet rather than a win play. Trainer Henry Guillory Jr. has a horse in this race, and Jarred Journet provides a capable ride. Even if he can't win this, he profiles as a pace-setting type who could hold for third.

Race 8

1:00 AM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

Ratings are tightly bunched in this six-furlong maiden special weight, with a narrow gap separating the top four — small edges matter more than usual here.

win3Cambri's FlashML 2/1

Cambri's Flash tops our ratings at 58.33 in a field where the margins are razor thin, going as the 2/1 morning line favorite. Trainer Logan Ashford is familiar with this type of race, and Elvin Gonzalez is one of the more active jockeys at this meet. She lacks a published speed figure, which adds some unknown, but the TrackWiz model's confidence in her is clear — she's the call in a tough spread.

place4Epic PeaceML 3/1

Epic Peace is just behind at 56.67 and comes with the added data point of an average speed figure of 54 — one of only two horses in this field with a published figure. Trainer Kevin Eikleberry has had success at Prairie Meadows, and Walter De La Cruz provides a professional ride. In a race this competitive, having actual speed figure data is an edge, and Epic Peace has it.

show1Starlet SupremeML 7/2

Starlet Supreme slots in third at 55.83 on our ratings, going at 7/2 with Alex Birzer for trainer Tristan Ashford. The ratings separation between the top three horses in this field is just over two points — essentially a dead heat on paper. That makes Starlet Supreme a logical show play or trifecta piece if the race unfolds with any chaos at the top.

Race 9

1:26 AM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

Out Flat is the rare case of a heavy favorite whose rating actually backs up the chalk price — this may be a race where the right play is cashing place and show tickets rather than chasing value.

win7Out FlatML 4/5

Out Flat is the top-rated horse on the entire card today with a 90.0 TrackWiz rating, and the market agrees — she opens at 4/5. Trainer Kelli Martinez has three horses in this race, which speaks to her familiarity with this field, and Walter De La Cruz picks up what looks like the barn's best. Her average speed figure of 55 tops the field alongside Avalon Jetty. In six furlongs, a horse this dominant on ratings rarely needs much help.

place6BandstandML 4/1

Bandstand rates second in this field at 55.0 with Orlando Mojica aboard for trainer Kelli Martinez — same barn as Out Flat, which means connections understand how these two stack up. The 4/1 morning line is workable, and her average speed of 53 is in range. If you're building a ticket around the favorite, Bandstand is the natural place-side backup from the same connections.

show5Avalon JettyML 5/1

Avalon Jetty offers a slight speed figure edge — averaging 55, tied with Out Flat for best in the field — and goes at 5/1 with Elvin Gonzalez for trainer Lane D. Johnston. Her 53.33 TrackWiz rating is just below Bandstand, but the speed figure data is encouraging. In a short sprint where early position matters, a horse with that kind of raw speed deserves show consideration.

Race 10

1:52 AM EDT

Allowance · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

The morning line heavy favorite Moon Over Choctaw gets challenged by a higher-rated rival in Sic' Em' Sis — this allowance route could be more competitive than the odds suggest.

win2Sic' Em' SisML 6/1

Sic' Em' Sis carries our top TrackWiz rating in this race at 82.71 — edging the 4/5 morning line favorite Moon Over Choctaw — and brings a remarkable 40% career win rate to the table. That win percentage is elite by any measure, and trainer Kevin Eikleberry is a sharp conditioner at Prairie Meadows. The 6/1 morning line on the highest-rated horse in the field is exactly the kind of overlay TrackWiz analysis is built to find.

place1Moon Over ChoctawML 4/5

Moon Over Choctaw is the public's darling at 4/5 and owns a solid 25% career win rate for trainer Ron Moquett. Walter De La Cruz gets the mount, and at a mile and 70 yards, her experience at this distance should keep her in the mix even if Sic' Em' Sis runs her down. Backing the chalk on the place side is a conservative but reasonable approach given the legitimate class question.

show4MiwomanML 5/1

Miwoman checks in third on our ratings at 60.56 and posts a 25% career win percentage — matching the favorite's mark. The 5/1 morning line for a horse with that kind of winning history in an allowance field is interesting. Trainer Ruben Fuentes and jockey Luis A. Fuentes — likely a family connection — keep this horse sharp, and the show position in a three-horse race feels attainable.

Race 11

2:18 AM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

A deep nine-horse allowance field with multiple horses rated in the 80s sets up as one of the toughest races on the card — the top three in our ratings are separated by just over five points.

win5KanjengML 5/2

Kanjeng tops our TrackWiz ratings at 87.81 and owns a sterling 25% career win rate in allowance company — that's a horse that belongs at this level and knows how to win. The 5/2 morning line is fair but not overly generous given the quality of the field. Trainer Kelli Martinez has been active at this meet, and Alberto Pusac gets the call. His average speed figure of 56 is tied for best in the race alongside Gotta Love Life — and at six furlongs, that speed advantage is meaningful.

place3FoxtonML 7/2

Foxton is a razor-thin second in our ratings at 82.69, making him a genuine threat to steal the win at 7/2. Ken S. Tohill gives him an experienced pilot, and trainer David D. McShane has a strong book of horses at Prairie Meadows. His 11% career win rate is the one soft spot, but in a rated race this tight, the place position feels very secure.

show2Muffin ThiefML 4/1

Muffin Thief rounds out our top three at 81.96 — just 0.73 points behind Foxton — and brings a 16% career win rate with an average speed figure of 55. The 4/1 morning line is a nice number for a horse this close to the top on our ratings. Trainer Jon G. Arnett puts Alfredo Triana Jr. up, and in a wide-open allowance sprint like this, a horse rated this tightly with the leaders is rarely far from the money.

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Bottom line: Prairie Meadows is serving up a diverse, 11-race dirt card with genuine value scattered throughout — from the Deluxe Diva longshot angle in Race 1 to the high-confidence Out Flat in Race 9. The free picks give you a strong start, but the full picture is in the premium analysis. Grab your picks, build your tickets, and let's have a good Friday at the track. Full card analysis available to TrackWiz subscribers at /pricing.

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