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Penn National Picks & Predictions — October 14, 2026

October 14, 20267 racesAll Penn National picks

Penn National kicks off Wednesday under partly cloudy skies and a comfortable 74°F — about as good as mid-October gets in Grantville. The track is playing fast and the footing is consistent, which should reward horses with legitimate speed figures and honest pace projections.

Seven races are on the card today, stretching across a mix of claiming, allowance, and maiden special weight company. Distances range from a sharp 5 furlongs to a route trip of 1 mile and 70 yards, so there's plenty of variety to work with whether you're targeting sprints, routes, or multi-race wagers.

TrackWiz analysis has identified strong angles throughout the card — including a couple of morning-line overlays worth circling. Let's break it down.

Best Bets

Race 1

9:45 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A one-mile claiming opener where TrackWiz ratings reveal a clear top tier — but a double-digit morning line price lurking in second makes this worth playing deeper than just the top choice.

win3AtomicoML 5/1

Atomico earns the top TrackWiz rating in this field at 84.17, a meaningful gap over the rest of the contenders. His average speed figure of 54 ties for the best in the race alongside Max Barley, but Atomico's overall profile is far stronger. Jockey Yabriel O. Ramos gets the call for trainer Robert A. Wolfe, Jr., and the combination of top rating and competitive speed makes him the clear choice to lead this claiming field home.

place2Neptune BeachML 10/1

Neptune Beach is the value play of the race — he's priced at 10/1 on the morning line yet carries a TrackWiz rating of 75.71, second best in the field. That kind of rating-to-odds discrepancy is exactly what we look for when building exactas and trifectas. Trainer Timothy C. Kreiser keeps him sharp, and at a mile, there's plenty of ground for Inoel Beato to find a spot and make a run.

show1Bernie Goes BoomML 9/2

Bernie Goes Boom comes in at 9/2 with a rating of 68.21, slotting comfortably into the third tier of this field. He's a useful exotic inclusion precisely because he sits between the top two picks in the ratings ladder — if Atomico or Neptune Beach miss the board for any reason, Bernie is right there to fill a trifecta slot. Angel Cruz has navigated this kind of mid-field claiming race plenty of times.

Race 2

10:14 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A short and sharp six-furlong dirt sprint where two horses separate themselves from the rest of the field on both speed figures and TrackWiz ratings — the question is just how much pace pressure the favorite will face.

win5Souper VinnieML 9/5

Souper Vinnie owns the top TrackWiz rating in this field at 88.83 and draws in as the 9/5 morning line favorite, so the market agrees with our model here. His average speed figure of 53 holds up fine for this level, and trainer Bruce M. Kravets sends him out in good form. At six furlongs on dirt, horses with elite ratings tend to confirm it quickly, and Souper Vinnie looks like the one to beat.

place4War SaluteML 5/2

War Salute is a strong second choice at 5/2 with a TrackWiz rating of 81.72 and the best average speed figure in the race at 55 — that's not a throwaway number in a six-furlong sprint where early fractions matter. Trainer Joey Martinez has him positioned well, and jockey Leonardo Corujo should get a clean trip from post 4. If Souper Vinnie faces any resistance on the front end, War Salute is built to capitalize.

show3Lorden's PrideML 3/1

Lorden's Pride checks in at 3/1 with a rating of 62.72 and a 10% career win rate — the best win percentage in this five-horse field. Trainer Kathleen A. Demasi has kept him competitive, and post 3 gives jockey Andrew Wolfsont a chance to settle in and let the pace develop. He's a sensible show play and a trifecta anchor for those looking to key the top two.

Race 3

10:43 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 fur · Dirt

Maiden special weight sprints at five furlongs are notoriously tricky — no horse in this field has hit the board as a winner yet, so we're leaning heavily on speed figures and trainer reputation to sort it out.

win3Tis WellML 5/2

Tis Well lands at the top of our TrackWiz ratings for this maiden field at 57.50 and draws in at 5/2, which is fair value in a wide-open race. Trainer Cathal A. Lynch is a known commodity at this level, and jockey Angel R. Rodriguez gets a prime post in a five-furlong sprint. The combination of top rating and a horse with a recorded average speed figure of 52 gives Tis Well the most verifiable form in the field.

place2Supreme SendoffML 4/1

Supreme Sendoff is an intriguing second-choice play at 4/1 with a TrackWiz rating of 55.00. While we don't have a recorded average speed figure on file for this one — suggesting a debut or limited work history — trainer Elisha Perez knows this track well and clearly likes the spot. With jockey Angel R. Quinones up, there's enough upside to make Supreme Sendoff a strong exacta partner with Tis Well.

show1Sun Tan ManML 9/2

Sun Tan Man rounds out our top three at 9/2 with a rating of 54.17 and an average speed figure of 54, which is actually the best recorded figure among horses with PP data in this race. Trainer Andrew L. Simoff gives him a shot to fire a big number fresh, and Eliseo Ruiz should have him in the mix early. In wide-open maiden sprints, having a horse with some measured speed is worth plenty.

The first three races are open to all readers, and there's genuine value in there. Atomico (Race 1, 5/1 ML) stands out as the kind of pace-pressing type who can benefit from a clean trip around one mile on a fast dirt track — that 84-point TrackWiz rating suggests he's better than his odds imply. In Race 2, Souper Vinnie is the top-rated horse on the entire card with an 88.83 TrackWiz score at 9/5 — that's a rare case where the favorite might actually be the value play, so don't automatically fade the chalk. Race 3 flips to maiden special weight territory over 5 furlongs, where Tis Well draws our eye at 5/2 in what figures to be a wide-open field.

One thing connecting these early free races: the dirt has been playing evenly, and horses with clean early positioning have a meaningful edge today. Keep that in mind as you build your tickets.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

11:12 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

This claiming route at a mile and 70 yards features a standout on the TrackWiz ratings board who is somehow priced at a juicy 5/2 — with a 30-plus point edge over most of the field, this one sets up as a prime single for exotics players.

win6Gun RightML 5/2

Gun Right dominates this field with a TrackWiz rating of 87.81, and at 5/2 on the morning line, that's genuine value for a horse this far ahead of his rivals. Trainer Brandon L. Kulp puts jockey Angel R. Rodriguez in the irons — a pairing worth noting. Gun Right also brings a 16% career win rate, and while this field has some intriguing alternatives, nothing else comes close to matching his overall profile.

place1GanglyML 4/1

Gangly brings the best career win rate in the field at a whopping 22% and carries a TrackWiz rating of 66.59 — second best in the race. Trainer Timothy C. Kreiser is a steady presence at Penn National, and jockey Angel Cruz gets a favorable inside draw at post 1 for a route that gives closers time to find their footing. If Gun Right faces any setback, Gangly is well-positioned to grab a piece.

show3Town's WarriorML 5/1

Town's Warrior slots in third on our ratings at 61.09 and also runs for the Kravets barn, making it an interesting stable situation with Bold Ambition also in the field. Jockey Yabriel O. Ramos gets the mount, which is often a good sign when a barn has two in — typically the one with the better rider is the main hope. At 5/1, Town's Warrior is a reasonable show bet and trifecta fill.

Race 5

11:41 PM EDT

Allowance · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

An allowance sprint at five and a half furlongs with two horses sporting eye-catching career win percentages that dwarf the rest of the field — when you see 47% and 50% win rates lining up together, the pace scenario becomes critical.

win2Uncle MoneyML 5/2

Uncle Money is our top selection with a TrackWiz rating of 87.81 and a remarkable 47% career win rate — that's the kind of number that tells you this horse knows how to finish first. He pairs an average speed figure of 56 with trainer Timothy C. Kreiser, who is one of the sharper conditioners at Penn National. Jockey Angel Cruz gets the call, and at 5/2, there's still some value for a horse whose raw numbers are this strong.

place4PaternoML 9/5

Paterno comes in as the 9/5 morning line favorite, and his 33% career win rate and average speed figure of 56 match Uncle Money's top-line speed. Trainer Bruce M. Kravets keeps him primed, and Yabriel O. Ramos is a capable hand at this distance. If the TrackWiz ratings edge goes to Uncle Money, Paterno's sheer consistency makes him nearly impossible to leave off an exacta.

show3SuyayML 5/1

Suyay is the sleeper of this allowance sprint — a 50% career win rate is the highest in the entire field, yet he's sitting at 5/1 on the morning line. The TrackWiz rating of 53.33 doesn't match that win percentage, which suggests he may be facing a slight class challenge here, but at that price, he's a worthwhile third-slot play. Trainer Ricardo A. Murillo saddles him with an average speed figure of 56, matching the top horses for raw foot.

Race 6

12:10 AM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

Didn't It Rain and Delray are the class of this allowance optional claiming field, and with both coming in rated in the mid-80s, the real intrigue is whether the slightly underpriced morning line on our top pick creates a value spot.

win4Didn't It RainML 4/1

Didn't It Rain sits atop the TrackWiz ratings at 85.62 and is priced at 4/1 — a genuinely attractive overlay when you consider Delray is rated just below him at 83.28 but is the 9/5 favorite. Trainer Timothy C. Kreiser doubles up in this race, and he's putting Angel Cruz on our top pick, which speaks volumes about where the barn's confidence lies. A 23% career win rate and an average speed of 53 round out a profile that demands respect at a mile and 70 yards.

place2DelrayML 9/5

Delray is the market favorite at 9/5 with a 33% career win rate — the best in this field — and a TrackWiz rating of 83.28. Trainer Jamie Ness sends him out with Martin Chuan in the irons, and this horse has clearly learned how to win. The slight ratings gap behind Didn't It Rain makes him our place pick rather than win, but in a five-horse field, he's nearly a lock to hit the board.

show5Pink RoseML 4/1

Pink Rose rounds out our selections at 4/1 with a TrackWiz rating of 67.29 and an impressive 30% career win rate. Trainer Ernesto Padilla-Preciado keeps her competitive, and with an average speed figure of 53, she's right in the mix on raw foot. In a short field where the top two are closely matched, a horse with a 30% win rate is always worth a show bet and exotic inclusion.

Race 7

12:39 AM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A wide-open six-furlong claiming sprint with three horses bunched tightly at the top of the TrackWiz ratings — and one of them is going off at 8/1, making this race a serious opportunity for value-minded exotic players.

win4No No JoeML 5/2

No No Joe leads our selections with a TrackWiz rating of 80.16 and a 23% career win rate, the best in this field. His average speed figure of 55 is tied for tops in the race, and jockey Leonardo Corujo pairs with trainer Cody Beattie — a combination that knows how to win at Penn National. At 5/2, he's fairly priced as the top pick, but the tight ratings cluster means he has to be on his game.

place5Chain ReactionML 8/1

Chain Reaction is the value play of the card — an 8/1 morning line price on a horse with a TrackWiz rating of 79.79, essentially dead even with our win pick. He also carries an average speed figure of 55 and runs for the same Cody Beattie barn as No No Joe, which raises the interesting possibility that this is a live stablemate threat. Inoel Beato gets the mount, and at that price, Chain Reaction should be on every exacta ticket.

show2Bermuda TriangleML 7/2

Bermuda Triangle rounds out the top three with a TrackWiz rating of 77.35 and a 15% career win rate. Ricardo Chiappe rides for trainer Bruce M. Kravets — a familiar and effective combination at this level. His average speed figure of 54 is slightly behind the top two, but in a sprint that could get messy with pace pressure, having a horse that can rate and run is a legitimate edge.

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Today's Penn National card is compact but loaded with playable spots. Souper Vinnie in Race 2 is our strongest free selection, Atomico offers real value at 5/1 in the opener, and the premium races feature a quartet of competitive fields where pace and positioning will be decisive. Full pace projections, exotic structures, and best bets for Races 4–7 are available to TrackWiz subscribers — check out our plans and get set for post time. Good luck out there.

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