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Penn National Picks & Predictions — July 31, 2026

July 31, 20268 racesAll Penn National picks

It's a beautiful Friday at Penn National — clear skies, 83°F, and the kind of firm, fast dirt that rewards horses who want to run freely on the front end. Eight races are on the card today, spanning everything from six-furlong sprints to route distances on both dirt and turf, so there's plenty of variety to keep things interesting all afternoon.

The turf course gets its lone look in Race 3, and with conditions this dry and sunny, the grass should be playing quick — worth keeping in mind when you're sizing up pace scenarios. On the main track, the fast surface sets up for some honest early fractions, which could either reward pace-pressers or leave front-runners vulnerable late depending on how the pace shakes out race by race.

Our TrackWiz ratings stretch from the low 84s up to an 89.12 for Race 7's top pick — that's a notably high figure for a Penn National card and signals a standout performance waiting to happen. Let's break it down.

Best Bets

Race 1

9:45 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

A wide-open 6-furlong allowance opener where our top-rated horse carries the highest TrackWiz score in the field by a comfortable margin, but two other contenders loom large at overlaid morning-line prices.

win4Clarely TomML 5/1

Clarely Tom draws our top pick with a field-best TrackWiz rating of 84.17, and a 42% career win rate is elite for any level — that's a horse who knows how to finish first. Trainer Flint W. Stites sends him out with jockey Wilfredo Corujo, a reliable combo at Penn National. At 5/1 on the morning line, there's genuine value here for a horse whose numbers suggest he's the class of this field. Six furlongs on dirt plays right into his profile.

place6Amy's MusicML 4/1

Amy's Music checks in with an 79.76 TrackWiz rating and has the backing of conditioner Jamie Ness, who consistently puts horses in position to hit the board. The 4/1 morning line underrepresents her overall profile in a race where the pace could set up perfectly for a late move. She's a logical place ticket even if Clarely Tom gets the win call.

show7Backside BuzzML 4/1

Backside Buzz sits third in our ratings at 71.93 and lands at a fair 4/1 on the morning line — solid value for an exotic play. Trainer Timothy C. Kreiser keeps this horse consistently competitive, and with Edwin Gonzalez in the irons, expect a professional trip. He's the kind of horse you want underneath in trifectas when prices are this close.

Race 2

10:14 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

A Starter Optional Claiming route at a mile and 70 yards where the TrackWiz ratings reveal a clear one-two punch at the top, but the third-best horse carries enough price to make this a two-key exotics race.

win3What Does It TakeML 4/1

What Does It Take posts the field's top TrackWiz rating at 85.62 and owns a 26% career win percentage, which is respectable at this class level. Brandon L. Kulp has been a sharp conditioner at Penn National, and Angel R. Rodriguez takes the mount — that's a capable rider-trainer tandem worth trusting. In a two-turn route where pace scenarios matter, a horse with this kind of rating edge tends to sort himself out late.

place5Hope's AliveML 5/2

Hope's Alive is our runner-up in the ratings at 80.12 and carries a 35% career win rate — one of the strongest hit rates in today's entire card. Trainer Bruce M. Kravets doubles up in this race with two starters, which signals confidence, and Yabriel O. Ramos gets the call on this one. At 5/2 on the morning line she's the public's second choice, and the numbers back up that respect.

show2The Best DistanceML 6/1

The Best Distance comes in as a show play at 6/1 and a TrackWiz rating of 64.63, which represents a real step up in quality from the bottom of this field. The 21% career win percentage is functional, and trainer Jose A. Gallegos has enough of a horse here to land a board spot. In a wide-open race beneath two clear top choices, this one rounds out the trifecta nicely at a fair price.

Race 3

10:43 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

A 12-horse turf mile — one of the bigger fields on the card — where the ratings point to a clear top choice but value lurks in the middle of the program with prices as generous as 8/1.

win9Lucky EstherML 4/1

Lucky Esther sits atop our TrackWiz ratings at 85.62, matching the highest score we've seen all card, and she's going postward for Michael R. Matz — a trainer who absolutely knows how to prep a horse for a turf sprint-to-route setup. Angel R. Rodriguez takes the assignment, giving this horse a polished pilot in a big field. At 4/1, this is a horse who merits favorite consideration and offers value at that price.

place8PhoebeinwonderlandML 5/2

Phoebeinwonderland draws in at 5/2 as the public's top choice with an 80.42 rating from our model — a legitimate contender who's clearly caught the eye of the betting market. Wesley Ho has been effective with Jose A. Gallegos horses, and an average speed figure of 56 is tops in this turf field. If the favorite stumbles, this filly has every tool to pick up the slack.

show7Song to RememberML 8/1

Song to Remember is an interesting show play at 8/1 with a 77.11 TrackWiz rating and a 15% career win percentage that actually outpaces several horses with lower morning-line odds. Bruce M. Kravets trains her, and this barn has multiple runners in today's card — suggesting they're live and ready. The price makes her a must-include in trifecta wheels.

Three races are fully unlocked for every reader today. Race 1 kicks things off with Clarely Tom in a 6-furlong allowance — rated 84.17 by TrackWiz and sitting at a juicy 5/1 on the morning line, making this one of the better value spots on the entire card. Race 2 stretches out to a mile and 70 yards on dirt, where What Does It Take (85.62 rating, 4/1 ML) gets our nod in a Starter Optional Claiming field that figures to set up well for a closer with strong late figures. Race 3 moves to the turf for a one-mile SOC, and Lucky Esther earns the same 85.62 rating as our top pick — on a firm grass course today, her numbers give her a clear edge if she handles the surface.

A common thread across these three free picks: none of them are the morning-line favorite, and all three carry TrackWiz ratings that suggest they're being underestimated by the public. That's exactly the kind of spot where patient bettors find real value.

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Race 4

11:12 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

This allowance sprint looks like it has a clear class standout, but two double-digit rated horses lurking at 8/1 could scramble the exotics in what should be a hotly contested 6-furlong battle.

win1Itty Biddy CityML 4/1

Itty Biddy City draws the top TrackWiz score in this field at 85.62, the highest rating we've recorded for any horse in a race with this many competitive runners. Trainer Robert A. Wolfe, Jr. puts Yabriel O. Ramos aboard — a jockey who's been active and effective at Penn this meet. A 12% career win rate doesn't tell the whole story; the speed and rating profile says this horse is dropping into a field she can handle.

place8Take Charge BooML 8/1

Take Charge Boo is the value bomb of this race at 8/1 on the morning line with a TrackWiz rating of 73.87 — but it's the 60% career win rate that grabs your attention. That's an extraordinary number for any horse at any level and screams competitive instinct. Trainer Michelle Castillo keeps this one ready, and Wesley Ho is a reliable pilot. She's worth a serious look in exactas.

show6Sparkling RubyML 8/1

Sparkling Ruby logs a 71.50 rating and a 14% career win percentage, solid enough to be a trifecta factor in an open allowance sprint at 8/1. Trainer David W. Geist pairs her with Emilio Flores, who brings experience around this oval. When two 8/1 shots land in our top three, the show price becomes a smart hedge against an upset.

Race 5

11:41 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A short six-horse claiming field where the morning-line favorite carries the race's dominant TrackWiz score — this has the look of a single-horse race with two legitimate place threats beneath her.

win1Sacred LoveML 2/1

Sacred Love owns the field's top rating at 88.54 — the highest on today's entire Penn card — and checks in as the 2/1 morning-line choice, which is fair given how far above this field she grades out. A 25% career win rate is rock solid, and trainer Todd M. Beattie sends her out with Vladimir Diaz, a proven match at this level. Six furlongs on dirt with an average speed figure of 55 is right in her wheelhouse. This is a strong best-bet candidate.

place4Diamond EssenceML 5/1

Diamond Essence draws our place call at 5/1 with a 76.29 TrackWiz rating — second best in a short field. Ricardo Chiappe has the mount for George R. Albright, and a 10% career win rate means she's competitive without being a lock. At 5/1, she represents real value if you're looking for a place ticket beneath the favorite.

show2IracebethML 6/1

Iracebeth rounds out the superfecta board at 6/1 with a 71.46 rating and an admittedly modest 9% career win rate. What she brings is consistent presence in this class range and the backing of trainer Elisha Perez, who's had multiple horses competing across tonight's card. For trifecta players looking to build underneath Sacred Love, she's a legitimate third wheel at a fair price.

Race 6

12:10 AM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

A double-digit field in the Allowance Optional Claiming at a mile and 70 yards shapes up as a pace test, but the top two rated horses are separated from the rest by a wide enough margin to make this a two-horse key exotics race.

win1Gordian KnotML 3/1

Gordian Knot earns the top TrackWiz score in this 10-horse field at 84.61 and carries an impressive 29% career win percentage — one of the better hit rates we've seen on the overnight. Jamie Ness conditions him and Martin Chuan takes the call; Ness has been sending well-prepared horses out here all meet. At 3/1 on the morning line, this is a legitimate single in multi-race wagers and a strong win play.

place4KissthemoonML 6/1

Kissthemoon grades out at 82.71 — barely a nose behind our top pick — and a 28% career win rate speaks to consistent competitiveness. Trainer Brandon L. Kulp has horses running all over this card tonight, and Angel R. Rodriguez, who's been one of the more active riders on the program, takes the mount. At 6/1, if the pace collapses on Gordian Knot, Kissthemoon is perfectly placed to swoop in.

show10BrindanoML 4/1

Brindano comes in third on our ratings at 73.76 with a 16% career win percentage and lands at a fair 4/1 morning line. Angel Cruz pilots for Sergio H. Pradenas, and the average speed figure of 52 fits the profile of a horse who hangs around late in route races. He's the logical third piece in any trifecta that keys the top two.

Race 7

12:39 AM EDT

Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

A short six-horse claiming route at 1 1/16 miles where the top two finishers look like a foregone conclusion on paper — the real question is whether the 8/5 morning-line favorite can be caught, or if the 5/2 shot lands the upset.

win5Sounds Like FunML 8/5

Sounds Like Fun carries the field's best TrackWiz rating at 89.12 — the top score across all eight races tonight — and draws the 8/5 morning-line chalk in this six-horse spot. Brandon L. Kulp trains and Angel R. Rodriguez rides, a combo that has been working together multiple times tonight, suggesting a sharp operation in top form. The 6% career win rate looks modest, but the rating and average speed figure of 53 over a mile-and-sixteenth profile him as a horse ready to break through. This looks like a single.

place6ShowmanceML 5/2

Showmance posts an 84.70 TrackWiz score and a 12% career win percentage while going postward at 5/2 — the public's second choice, and our model agrees. Trainer T. Bernard Houghton puts David Cora up, and this horse's average speed of 52 keeps him relevant in a route. If Sounds Like Fun gets caught in a pace duel or faces traffic, Showmance has the rating to capitalize.

show3Jake's AffectionML 5/1

Jake's Affection is our show play at 5/1 with a 58.21 TrackWiz rating — tied for third in the field — though a 3% career win rate signals this one is still searching for the right spot. Trainer Kelly Lynn Deiter has him set for a route, and Edgar Villasmil guides. In a six-horse field this short, the third-place price could come at value, making him a reasonable trifecta closer.

Race 8

1:08 AM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

The finale goes a flat mile on dirt with eight starters and a clear top choice on our ratings, but two horses lurking at 5/1 and 10/1 give the exotics real teeth — especially at a mile where pace setups can shuffle the deck.

win3Mary's RewardML 5/1

Mary's Reward leads this field with an 84.17 TrackWiz rating and a 22% career win rate — numbers that make her the standout in what's otherwise a competitive claiming field. Brandon L. Kulp doubles up in Race 8 with two starters, showing confidence in this horse, and Angel R. Rodriguez — one of the busiest and most effective riders on tonight's card — takes the assignment. An average speed figure of 54 at one mile on dirt is a reliable profile, and the 5/1 morning line makes this a genuine value play.

place2AdeML 5/2

Ade draws the public's respect at 5/2 on the morning line and posts a solid 69.48 TrackWiz rating, second best in the field. Trainer Rodolfo Sanchez-Salomon sends her out with Raul E. Mena, and while an 8% career win rate is modest, this horse clearly runs competitively in spots like this. She's the logical place ticket if you're rolling a straight exacta with Mary's Reward.

show5Bugged OutML 10/1

Bugged Out is our show call at 10/1 — and at that price, he's the value play of the race card's finale. A 59.79 TrackWiz rating places him third in our model, and a 17% career win rate suggests he finds the board more often than the odds imply. Trainer Charles A. DeMario is putting him in a winnable spot, and at a mile where closers can get rolling late, this is a horse you want in your trifecta for the right price.

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Bottom line: Penn National is dealing a quality eight-race card on a perfect summer afternoon. Clarely Tom, What Does It Take, and Lucky Esther headline the free plays with legitimate value at their morning-line odds. And with Sounds Like Fun posting the highest TrackWiz rating on the card going into Race 7, the premium half of this card is absolutely worth the look. Full analysis, pace maps, and exotic tickets are waiting for subscribers — head to /pricing to get access before the first post.

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