Daily Picks

Penn National Picks & Predictions — June 25, 2026

Thursday, June 25, 20267 racesPenn National

It's a warm Thursday afternoon at Penn National — 81°F under partly cloudy skies — and the track is serving up a seven-race card that leans heavily on the lawn early before shifting to the dirt in the back half. That mix of surfaces means the pace dynamics shift dramatically as the card unfolds, and getting a read on both strips is essential today.

Three of the first four races are contested on the turf, which is the real story of this card. The going looks favorable for horses that can rate off the pace and finish, so keep that in mind as you build your tickets. Races 4 through 7 move the action to the main track, where our analysis identifies some strong positional angles worth following.

We've got three free race breakdowns to get you started — covering Races 1, 2, and 3 — with full premium coverage unlocking the rest of the card, including a pair of picks rated above 88 on the TrackWiz model.

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Race 1

9:45 PM EDT

Allowance · 5 fur · Turf

A short turf sprint with two legit class standouts sitting at the top of the TrackWiz ratings, setting up a potential battle between Humoresque and Winning Play while the rest of the field scrambles for scraps.

win3HumoresqueML 7/2

Humoresque lands on top of our ratings with an 86.35 score and draws the rail-friendly 3 post for trainer Cathal Lynch, who also has a second runner in the race — always a sign the barn is live. At 7/2 on the morning line, this is a horse that grades out above the favorite in our model despite longer odds. The average speed figure of 55 on turf is competitive at this distance, and Lynch's dual-barrel approach suggests he's got real confidence in both horses.

place1Winning PlayML 2/1

Winning Play is the morning-line favorite at 2/1 and rates second in this field at 82.39, making the place ticket look like a reasonably safe landing spot. Jomar Torres gets the call, and the 11% career win rate tells you this horse competes consistently without always closing the deal — a classic place horse profile. The average speed figure of 57 is the joint-highest in the field, which means Winning Play has raw foot even if the rating says Humoresque has the edge overall.

show7AvatudeML 8/1

Avatude at 8/1 is an intriguing show-ticket inclusion with a 25% career win rate — that's legitimately strong for a horse being overlooked at this price. Trainer Ernesto Padilla-Preciado sends this one out with jockey Andy Hernandez, and the 65.67 TrackWiz rating puts Avatude clearly ahead of the bottom half of this field. In a short turf sprint where pace can get hectic, a horse with winning pedigree on the board is worth a spot in your trifecta.

Race 2

10:14 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Turf

An all-maiden turf route where nobody has broken their duck yet, but Holy Fit stands out as a significant class above the field based on our ratings — the question is just whether the morning line holds or the market compresses that price.

win5Holy FitML 2/1

Holy Fit posts an 88.54 TrackWiz rating — that's the highest mark in the race by over 12 points — and comes in as the 2/1 morning-line choice. Trainer Mark V. Salvaggio puts Jomar Torres in the irons, a pairing that suggests they're showing up ready. In a maiden field on turf going a route of ground, superior ratings tend to carry more weight, and Holy Fit's average speed figure of 53 is right in the mix at this distance.

place6Hop to ItML 5/2

Hop to It rates second in the field at 76.13 and opens at a very reasonable 5/2, making the place ticket here a nice value play. Trainer Tim Woolley sends David Cora to the saddle, and while the career win percentage is 0 across all runners here, Hop to It's overall rating profile suggests this horse has been knocking on the door. At a mile and 70 yards on turf, stamina matters, and Hop to It's profile suggests there's enough bottom to be competitive deep into the stretch.

show1Beau HillML 9/2

Beau Hill at 9/2 is our show selection, rating third in the field at 64.81 with an average speed figure of 55 — that's actually the best speed number in this race. Trainer Paulina Sinnefia sends this one with Julio A. Hernandez up, and the combination of the highest avg speed figure and a middle-range odds tag makes Beau Hill a logical exotics anchor. In maiden turf routes, the horse that can sustain speed through the final furlongs often overperforms the ratings, and that 55 figure is worth noting.

Race 3

10:43 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

A wide-open starter optional claiming on the turf mile featuring several horses clustered near the top of the ratings, with a huge pace scenario advantage for whoever stalks the early speed — this could be a race where position at the top of the lane wins it.

win1Lien On HerML 5/2

Lien On Her is our top selection with an 86.21 rating and a career win percentage of 66% — that number is extraordinary and stands head and shoulders above every other horse in this field. Trainer Hugh I. McMahon puts Julio A. Hernandez up from the rail, and a horse that wins two out of every three career starts is not to be taken lightly at 5/2. The average speed figure of 55 keeps pace with the best in the field, and in a starter optional claiming spot, a horse with this kind of closing rate at 5/2 is a legitimate key horse in all your multis.

place5Mega ChangerML 5/1

Mega Changer rates second-highest at 82.56 and offers real value at 5/1 on the morning line — that's better than a fair price for a horse of this caliber in this spot. Trainer Paulina Sinnefia sends Carlos Eduardo Lopez to ride, and a 20% career win rate combined with an average speed figure of 54 suggests this is a horse that knows how to compete. The place ticket here at likely generous odds is a strong play given the rating edge over the back half of the field.

show8Song to RememberML 8/1

Song to Remember opens at 8/1 but rates third in this entire field at 79.79, making it one of the better overlay opportunities on the card. David Cora takes the mount for trainer Bruce M. Kravets, and a career win rate of 18% is solid for this level. An average speed figure of 55 ties for tops in the race, and if this horse gets a clean trip on the turf, fading through the first part of a contentious pace, the 8/1 show price could look like a gift in hindsight.

The free portion of today's card is a turf trifecta, and the grass looks like the place to be early. Humoresque opens the day in Race 1 at 7/2 on the morning line — a price with real appeal for a horse our model rates at 86.35. In Race 2, Holy Fit is the top-rated horse across the entire free card at 88.54, making that 2/1 morning line look very reasonable in a maiden claiming mile-plus grass route. Lien On Her rounds out the free coverage in Race 3, another turf route, posted at 5/2 with an 86.21 rating.

The connecting thread across all three free races: distance and surface consistency. Each runs on turf at a route distance, which rewards horses with proven stamina and clean trips. If the turf comes up playing fair — and today's conditions suggest it should — look for closers and mid-pack stalkers to have the edge. These three races form a natural Pick 3 sequence worth structuring before you dig into the premium races.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

11:12 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

On the dirt at a mile and 70 yards, this starter optional claiming race has a clear class standout at the top of the ratings — but at 9/5, the market already knows, so the betting interest shifts to who fills out the exotics underneath.

win3Leonidas StandML 9/5

Leonidas Stand is a standout in this field with an 88.83 TrackWiz rating — the highest mark by more than 30 points over the second-best horse here — and Angel R. Rodriguez gets the call for trainer Brandon L. Kulp. The 9/5 morning line reflects the public's recognition of this edge, but the rating gap is significant enough that we still back it. An average speed figure of 54 is best in the field, and Kulp is double-entered here with Coach Kriv, which sometimes signals stable confidence in a specific runner.

place2Lino's FireML 7/2

Lino's Fire rates second in the race at 58.07 with a 20% career win rate — the kind of consistent performer who gets into the exacta box regularly at tracks like Penn National. Trainer Chris R. Harting puts Sara Hess up from the 2 post, and at 7/2 on the morning line, this is fair value for a horse that can hit the board. The average speed figure of 52 is average for this field, but the career winning form gives confidence that Lino's Fire competes hard even when outgunned.

show5If I Can DreamML 5/1

If I Can Dream comes in at 5/1 with a 53.42 rating and a 10% career win percentage, but what stands out is the average speed figure of 54 — tied for best in the race alongside Leonidas Stand. Trainer Michael V. Pino sends Dexter Haddock to the irons, and the raw speed capability here is arguably underrated at the morning-line price. In a race where Leonidas Stand figures to draw a lot of the money, the show price on If I Can Dream could drift to something very attractive at post time.

Race 5

11:41 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A five-horse claiming sprint on dirt where the ratings picture is actually cleaner than the morning line suggests — there's a clear top pick, but the favorite going off at 8/5 may be underlay territory if you look at the numbers closely.

win5PurecrazigrooveML 2/1

Purecrazigroove carries the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 88.54 and opens at 2/1 — stronger value than the 8/5 favorite, which is a notable edge in a short field. David Cora handles the riding duties for trainer Konstantinos Harigeorgiou, and a 9% career win percentage is modest, but the rating dominance here is what drives the selection. At 6 furlongs on dirt with an average speed figure of 54 (tied for best), this horse has the raw metrics to wire or stalk and kick.

place1Booster ShotML 8/5

Booster Shot is the 8/5 morning-line chalk but rates third at 73.19 — behind Purecrazigroove and essentially even with Ollie Boy. Trainer Sandee D. Martin sends Wilfredo Corujo from the rail, and in short-field sprints, the 1-post can be tricky if there's no speed advantage. The 6% career win rate is actually a bit of a red flag despite the low odds, so the place ticket rather than win here is probably the smarter play on Booster Shot.

show2Ollie BoyML 4/1

Ollie Boy rates 71.09 — just a couple of ticks below Booster Shot — and at 4/1 represents solid show ticket value in what could be a messy pace scenario at 6 furlongs. Trainer Charles A. DeMario puts Emilio Flores up from the 2 post, and a 9% career win rate in a five-horse field is not alarming. The average speed figure of 54 matches Purecrazigroove for best in the race, and if the front pair burn each other up, Ollie Boy from a comfortable stalking spot could be the one motoring past late.

Race 6

12:10 AM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

A six-horse allowance sprint on dirt that looks like a prime showcase for one horse with a significant rating edge — Blo by the Field sets up as the standout, but value hunters will want to look at the place and show prices underneath.

win6Blo by the FieldML 9/5

Blo by the Field rates at an 88.83 — top of the field and tied for the highest mark on tonight's card — and carries a 27% career win rate that screams consistency above this level. Trainer Mark V. Salvaggio taps Jomar Torres, who's been busy on the Penn National circuit all card, and the combination of elite rating, high win percentage, and a strong jockey makes this about as well-constructed a win play as you'll find tonight. At 9/5 on the morning line, the price is fair — this isn't a longshot overlay, but the rating gap over the rest of the field is substantial enough to make it a strong key in exactas and trifectas.

place1Sparkling RubyML 6/1

Sparkling Ruby at 6/1 brings a 15% career win rate and an average speed figure of 55 that ties for the top mark in this race. Trainer David W. Geist sends Emilio Flores from the 1 post, and a horse that averages this kind of speed from a gate position that can control position early is a live contender for the place. If Blo by the Field gobbles up the favorite and Sparkling Ruby stalks comfortably, the 6/1 place price looks extremely generous.

show2Warrior's MissML 8/1

Warrior's Miss opens at 8/1 with a 21% career win rate — that's the second-best winning percentage in the field — and trainer Konstantinos Harigeorgiou also runs Purecrazigroove in Race 5, suggesting the barn is firing on all cylinders tonight. Manuel Aguilar gets the mount, and an average speed figure of 55 keeps this horse competitive in the pace scenario. The 59.79 rating isn't flashy, but in a six-horse field with live contenders bunched in the 59-61 range behind the top horse, Warrior's Miss has enough to hit the board at a very appealing show price.

Race 7

12:39 AM EDT

Ratings Handicap · 6 fur · Dirt

The ratings handicap to close out the card features a significant disconnect between the morning line and our model — the 7/5 favorite rates well below the top-rated horse, setting up what could be a prime betting opportunity if the odds hold.

win1Qualified HireML 3/1

Qualified Hire is our top pick here at 3/1, boasting an 87.08 TrackWiz rating — which is 17 points clear of the 7/5 favorite — and a 22% career win rate that leads the field. Trainer Cody Beattie puts Wilfredo Corujo in the irons, and the combination of superior rating and solid career winning form at a price that should beat the favorite makes this a high-confidence win play. At 6 furlongs on dirt, an average speed figure of 52 is consistent with the top group in this race, and the class edge our model identifies here is worth backing with confidence.

place6My Boss LadyML 5/1

My Boss Lady comes in at 5/1 with a 69.80 rating — second-best in the field — and the best average speed figure (54) of any horse in this race. Trainer Carl J. O'Callaghan pairs with David Cora, and a horse that leads the field in average speed but opens at 5/1 in a ratings handicap is exactly the kind of situational overlay we look for in place spots. The 9% career win rate suggests she doesn't always get to the winner's circle, but consistently competitive horses at fair prices make excellent place and show plays in exotics.

show2Extremely GruntledML 7/5

Extremely Gruntled is the 7/5 morning-line favorite despite rating third in the field at just 62.61 — that's a meaningful gap below Qualified Hire, and the market may be inflating this one's price based on recent form. Trainer Todd M. Beattie and jockey Yabriel O. Ramos combine for a sharp-looking tactical pairing, and the 14% career win rate is modest but functional. We include this as a show play because even an overrated favorite has enough quality to hit the board in a six-horse field, but we'd strongly suggest not making Extremely Gruntled a win key given what the ratings are telling us.

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A solid Thursday card at Penn National with turf racing dominating the early going and the dirt taking over late. Humoresque, Holy Fit, and Lien On Her are your free best bets to get the day started — all on the grass, all at workable prices. For the full-card rundown, including Leonidas Stand and Blo by the Field — two of the day's top-rated contenders — subscribers have everything they need. Good luck out there, and as always, bet smart.

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