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Mountaineer Picks & Predictions — September 30, 2026

September 30, 20268 racesAll Mountaineer picks

It's a cool, cloudy Wednesday at Mountaineer — 69°F and overcast — and that kind of mild fall weather is just about perfect for a full 8-race card that mixes turf sprints, dirt routes, and everything in between. The grass should be playing fair and fast, which makes pace scenarios cleaner and our ratings more reliable.

Today's card opens with three maiden and claiming turf races before shifting to the dirt for five straight, capped off by a 5½-furlong claiming sprint in Race 8 that features our highest-rated horse of the day. Whether you're here for a few casual plays or building multi-race tickets, there's plenty to dig into.

Three races are fully unlocked for all readers — Races 1, 2, and 3 — with complete free analysis from TrackWiz. Races 4 through 8 are part of our premium full-card breakdown, available to subscribers.

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Race 1

11:00 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 fur · Turf

A maiden claiming sprint on the turf where two horses tower over the field on TrackWiz ratings — expect the race to come down to #7 and #3 with a mid-pack closer lurking.

win7Crafty LawyerML 3/1

Crafty Lawyer earns the top TrackWiz rating in this field at 87.08, a clear step above almost everyone else in this maiden claiming sprint. Trainer Eddie Clouston puts Luis Alberto Batista aboard, a pairing worth watching, and the 3/1 morning line reflects public respect for this horse's chances. At 5 furlongs on turf, pace dynamics tend to reward horses with clean speed figures, and Crafty Lawyer's avg speed of 51 is competitive in this company. In a field of first-time starters and maiden horses with zero career wins, this rating gap is hard to ignore.

place3MaxpowerML 2/1

Maxpower comes in as the morning-line favorite at 2/1 and backs it up with a solid 76.99 TrackWiz rating — second best in the field. The avg speed of 53 is the highest among the horses with recorded figures, which matters a lot in a short 5-furlong dash where early position can be decisive. Trainer Anthony Farrior sends out Luis Raul Rivera, and this one looks like the most likely horse to run Crafty Lawyer down if anything goes sideways.

show8CharthenaML 5/1

Charthena at 5/1 checks in with a 60.6 rating and an avg speed figure of 52 — middle of the pack numerically but enough to land in the exotics conversation. Trainer Donald T. Blankenship actually has two horses in this race, which could complicate things, but Charthena on paper profiles as the third-best here. At 5/1, there's some value if you're building trifecta tickets around the top two.

Race 2

11:25 PM EDT

Claiming · 7 fur · Turf

A full field of claimers going 7 furlongs on the turf features a genuine pace scenario with multiple speed horses and a few closers — the pace setup could be the key to unlocking value.

win7Blown AwayML 4/1

Blown Away is our top selection here with a 79.31 TrackWiz rating and, most importantly, an eye-popping 37% career win rate — by far the best winning percentage in this field. Trainer J. Michael Baird sends out Angel I. Diaz, and at 4/1 on the morning line this horse represents solid value relative to the 2/1 favorite. The avg speed of 52 is right there with the best in the field, and that career win percentage tells you this horse knows how to close out a race when it matters.

place1Tail RiskML 2/1

Tail Risk is the morning-line chalk at 2/1 and justifies the respect with a 78.34 rating — a razor-thin gap behind Blown Away at the top. A 14% career win rate is respectable at this level, and trainer Anthony Farrior has been active on this card. The 52 avg speed keeps Tail Risk in the speed conversation, making a front-running or stalking trip plausible at 7 furlongs on turf.

show6Robert LeeML 7/1

Robert Lee at 7/1 offers genuine value as the third pick here — a 72.26 rating and a solid 12% career win percentage make this one a legitimate exotics piece. Trainer Carlos A. Lopez also has Wilding Lane in the race, but Robert Lee is clearly the stable's stronger contender based on the numbers. An avg speed of 51 means this horse will need a pace meltdown up front to get there, but at 7/1, the trifecta upside is real.

Race 3

11:50 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 7 fur · Turf

One of the deeper races on the card — 14 starters in a starter optional claiming event at 7 furlongs on turf, with a cluster of horses rated between 73 and 78 making this a genuine pick-em among the top tier.

win2Opposite the CrowdML 2/1

Opposite the Crowd comes in at 2/1 on the morning line and backs it up with the top TrackWiz rating of 78.06 in a very competitive field. The standout stat here is a 32% career win rate — among the highest in the race — which says this horse doesn't just show up, it converts. Trainer Juan Pablo Silva puts Alejandro Gomez Jr. in the irons, a capable combination, and the avg speed of 53 matches the best in the field. In a crowded 14-horse field, having a horse with proven closing ability and a strong win percentage is exactly the kind of profile you want.

place14Go Go StarML 4/1

Go Go Star at 4/1 is only a whisker behind the top horses with a 77.32 rating and an avg speed of 53 that matches the field's best. Trainer Scott R. Murphy also runs Mean to Me in this race but Go Go Star is clearly the barn's sharper contender here. Bailey Weatherly takes the mount, and a 10% career win rate is workmanlike at this level — expect this one to be in the thick of it deep into the stretch.

show12Councilwoman JillyML 5/1

Councilwoman Jilly brings a 76.3 rating and a 53 avg speed to the table at a fair 5/1 morning line. Trainer Yimi Alvarez and jockey Brooke Bays team up, and a 13% career win rate keeps this horse in honest contention. In a race this crowded, having a horse with a high speed figure and competitive rating as your third exotics piece gives you good coverage across a wide field.

Our three free races all land on the turf, and that's no coincidence for today's strategy. With mild temperatures and no rain in the forecast, the turf course should be consistent from race to race — meaning early pace figures translate well and closers aren't getting undue help from a soft or yielding surface. Keep that in mind as you handicap.

Crafty Lawyer (3/1 morning line, 87.08 TrackWiz rating) headlines the free card in Race 1, and that's the number we trust most among the opener trio. Blown Away in Race 2 and Opposite the Crowd in Race 3 round out the free picks — all three represent solid angles on a turf course we like today. Dig into each race card for the full reasoning.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

12:15 AM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

This dirt sprint looks like a two-horse race at the top with Girl Bye and Coin Purse separating from the field on ratings — but Secret Seduction isn't far behind and could make this a three-way battle at the wire.

win7Girl ByeML 5/2

Girl Bye is the standout in Race 4 — a 87.81 TrackWiz rating is the highest in the field by a meaningful margin, and an avg speed of 53 ties for best in the group. Trainer Jeff Fletcher sends out Yuri Yaranga, and despite a 9% career win rate that might raise eyebrows, the rating gap here is what drives the selection. At 5/2 on the morning line, this isn't a steal but it's a price worth paying for the top-rated horse in a fairly short dirt sprint where figures matter.

place5Coin PurseML 7/2

Coin Purse at 7/2 is the second-best rated horse in the field at 79.04 and posts the highest avg speed of 53 alongside Girl Bye. Trainer John T. Brown has a decent record placing horses, and Bailey Weatherly is a live rider. The 8% career win rate is modest, but this horse's speed numbers suggest it can sustain a competitive effort — it's a natural backup if the top selection hits any traffic.

show6Secret SeductionML 3/1

Secret Seduction at 3/1 has a 77.91 rating that keeps it very much in play, and a 52 avg speed is only a tick behind the leaders. Trainer Shane M. Spiess and jockey Miguel L. Martinez combine here, and an 11% career win rate shows this one is capable of getting the job done. As the third wheel in a tightly-bunched top trio, Secret Seduction makes for a sensible show ticket and adds depth to trifecta combinations.

Race 5

12:40 AM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A mile on the dirt and two horses are putting clear daylight between themselves and the rest of the field — Miss M M and Vingativa are within a point of each other at the top of the ratings and this one could come down to the wire.

win5Miss M MML 2/1

Miss M M sits at the top of this field with an 87.94 TrackWiz rating and — most critically — an avg speed figure of 56, which is noticeably higher than anyone else in the race. Trainer Moises Valdez and jockey Alejandro Gomez Jr. team up here, and the 2/1 morning line reflects how well-regarded this horse is. The combination of elite speed figures and a top rating over a mile of dirt makes Miss M M a confident top selection.

place6VingativaML 3/1

Vingativa is right on Miss M M's heels with an 87.08 rating and a 16% career win rate that's the second-best in the field. Trainer Don Roberson sends out Kevin Gonzalez, and at 3/1, this is a horse that could very easily flip the result if Miss M M encounters any trouble. An avg speed of 52 is a step below the top pick's figures, which is why it slots as the place selection, but at this price it absolutely belongs in your exotics.

show4In to the NightML 6/1

In to the Night at 6/1 earns the show nod with a 74.91 rating — a solid step below the top two but well clear of the rest. A 14% career win rate gives this one legitimate credibility, and trainer Donald T. Blankenship has been busy on today's card. Francisco Garcia aboard gives this horse a capable set of hands, and at 6/1, it's a smart hedge piece in exacta and trifecta structures.

Race 6

1:05 AM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Shore Time is our clear standout in this dirt sprint, but the morning-line favorite Excitable Boy presents an interesting head-to-head dynamic — and the pace scenario with multiple speed horses adds a wrinkle.

win2Shore TimeML 6/1

Shore Time at 6/1 is our top selection despite not being the morning-line favorite, and that's what makes this a value play. The 82.71 TrackWiz rating is the best in the field by a solid margin, and a 15% career win rate backs up the idea that this horse runs well when the conditions are right. Trainer Juan C. Vazquez and jockey Luis Negron make for a sharp combination, and an avg speed of 53 keeps this horse in the mix. Taking 6/1 on the top-rated horse in the field is exactly the kind of spot where TrackWiz analysis finds an edge.

place9Excitable BoyML 2/1

Excitable Boy comes in as the 2/1 morning-line favorite and posts a 74.55 rating alongside an avg speed of 55 — tied for the highest in the race. Trainer Anthony Farrior and jockey Luis Raul Rivera are a familiar combo on this card, and the public has clearly taken notice. The speed figure of 55 is genuinely eye-catching and could see this horse controlling the pace — the question is whether it can hold on against Shore Time in the final furlong.

show6Wings of GodML 5/1

Wings of God at 5/1 brings a 70.18 rating to the table and an 8% career win rate from trainer Jami C. Poole, who also has horses elsewhere on the card. Jockey Elijah Greenidge gets the mount, and while the career win percentage is modest, the rating profile is good enough to warrant a trifecta spot. If the pace up front gets hot between Excitable Boy and the other speed in the field, a closer like Wings of God could benefit from the carnage.

Race 7

1:30 AM EDT

Ratings Handicap · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A ratings handicap at 5½ furlongs on dirt features a genuine top two in Jamming Cameron and Trigger Point — but this is a full field with several horses posting solid career win percentages, so the race shape matters.

win9Jamming CameronML 2/1

Jamming Cameron is a compelling top pick — an 86.01 TrackWiz rating paired with a 44% career win rate that stands alone in this field as extraordinary. A 44% win rate in any sample isn't a fluke; this horse genuinely knows how to win races, and trainer Dave Treharne clearly has this one dialed in. Ricardo Barrios takes the mount, and an avg speed of 55 ties for the best on paper. At 2/1, the morning line is honest, but backing a horse with elite figures AND a 44% strike rate is as close to a confident bet as this game allows.

place10Trigger PointML 4/1

Trigger Point at 4/1 is the clear second choice and earns it — an 82.59 rating and a 39% career win rate are both elite numbers. Trainer Jay P. Bernardini puts Brandon Tapara aboard, and an avg speed of 54 keeps Trigger Point in the speed conversation. This horse's career winning percentage is the second-best in the field and, in a ratings handicap where class tends to assert itself, you want horses that have shown they can get to the wire first.

show3Atlantic FirestormML 5/1

Atlantic Firestorm at 5/1 posts a 79.62 rating and a 23% career win rate — respectable numbers that put this one firmly in the exotics picture. Trainer Angelo Pizzurro also enters Stomping Moon in the race, but Atlantic Firestorm is the stronger runner by rating. Deshawn L. Parker gets the call, and the 54 avg speed is right in line with the top horses in the field — a trifecta including this one at 5/1 could return nicely.

Race 8

1:55 AM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Hero's Man stands out as a class above in this 11-horse claiming sprint, but Binging and Alfie Solomons give the race legitimate depth and make the exacta and trifecta worth constructing carefully.

win3Hero's ManML 2/1

Hero's Man is the most clear-cut top selection on the card today — an 88.54 TrackWiz rating leads all horses in Race 8 by a wide margin, and a 26% career win rate confirms this is a horse that gets the job done. Trainer Dave Treharne, who also saddles Jamming Cameron in Race 7, is having a productive evening, and Ricardo Barrios takes the mount. The avg speed of 53 is competitive, and at 2/1 on the morning line, this is the kind of spot where the favorite is actually offering fair value rather than being bet below its true price.

place11BingingML 9/2

Binging at 9/2 is the second-best rated horse in a big field at 78.57, and an avg speed of 54 gives it an edge on the top pick when it comes to raw speed. Trainer Juan Pablo Silva and jockey Jose A. Leon are a solid pairing, and a 13% career win rate shows this horse is capable of running an honest race. If anything disrupts Hero's Man — a wide trip, traffic — Binging is perfectly positioned to capitalize.

show10Alfie SolomonsML 4/1

Alfie Solomons at 4/1 rounds out the exotics with a 72.97 rating and a 15% career win rate, making it the third-best horse on the numbers in this field. Trainer Crystal Richison sends out Kevin Gonzalez, who has multiple rides today, and the 53 avg speed keeps Alfie Solomons competitive in this claiming sprint. At 4/1 for a horse rated third-best in the field, there's legitimate trifecta value here.

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Bottom line: the turf is playing fair, the dirt card is loaded with pace intrigue, and Hero's Man in Race 8 is the name to know heading into the stretch run of today's card. Crafty Lawyer, Blown Away, and Opposite the Crowd give every reader three solid free plays on the grass. For pace breakdowns, exotic structures, and the full dirt-card analysis covering Races 4–8, subscribe to TrackWiz Premium and get the complete picture before first post.

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