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Mountaineer Picks & Predictions — August 17, 2026

August 17, 20268 racesAll Mountaineer picks

Best bets at Mountaineer, August 17, 2026

Race 15New Ways to DreamML 3/17:00 PM EDT

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Mountaineer comes alive on Monday, August 17 with a full 8-race card, and conditions are about as cooperative as you'll find all summer — partly cloudy skies and a comfortable 76°F setting the stage for what looks like a genuinely competitive afternoon. Today's card leans heavily on the turf, with the first three races and Race 4 all run on the green, so grass form and turf breeding are going to be front and center in your handicapping.

We've got a nice mix of conditions across the card — Starter Allowance, straight Claiming, an Allowance spot, and a Rating Optional Claiming race to round things out. Eight races, a variety of distances ranging from a quick 5 furlongs all the way out to 1 1/16 miles on the dirt, and a handful of horses carrying some legitimate TrackWiz ratings north of 87. There's plenty to dig into here.

Best Bets

Race 1

7:00 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 5 fur · Turf

A clear top-rated standout towers over this starter allowance field on the turf sprint, but trainer Tina Ramgeet saddles two runners that could complicate the exacta.

win5New Ways to DreamML 3/1

New Ways to Dream (5) is the most dominant figure in this field by a wide margin — our TrackWiz rating of 87.08 is more than 13 points clear of the second-best horse. Trained by Wilson C. Langley and piloted by Ricardo Barrios, this horse carries a 20% career win rate and the field's best average speed figure at 54. At 3/1 on the morning line, there's still reasonable value for a horse that profiles as a clear class standout in a starter allowance at 5 furlongs on the turf.

place2Take WingsML 5/2

Take Wings (2) is the other Langley trainee in the race, and that barn going 1-2 in the entries is worth noting. A 22% career win rate is the best in the field, and a TrackWiz rating of 74 makes this horse a legitimate contender for the exotics. At 5/2 on the morning line, the place price might not be generous, but the profile demands inclusion.

show7Miss ShadyML 8/1

Miss Shady (7) represents the value angle in the show slot, going off at 8/1 despite a TrackWiz rating of 70.44 — third-best in the field and within striking distance of the top two. Trainer Sydney R. Rotunno has Luis Negron in the irons, and a 16% career win rate gives this filly a real shot to hit the board in a race where the top two could run each other into the ground up front.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

7:25 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 fur · Turf

Mornin' Boss owns the top number in an eleven-horse claiming field, but a crowded pace scenario on the turf sprint makes the exotics worth exploring.

win1Mornin' BossML 3/1

Mornin' Boss (1) tops this field with a TrackWiz rating of 87.08, matching the best marks we've seen on the card, and posts a 23% career win rate that ranks as one of the stronger records in this claiming field. Trained by Juan Pablo Silva and ridden by Humberto Haldar, this horse also shows the tactical ability to get a clean trip from the rail. The 3/1 morning line is fair — this horse looks like the most complete package in the race.

place3Too Fast for YouML 4/1

Too Fast for You (3) carries the most impressive career win rate in the field at 30%, and a TrackWiz rating of 68.48 puts her firmly in contention. Trainer Claudie Marshall Godsey, Jr. puts Bailey Weatherly up, and with five furlongs of turf giving speed an advantage, this horse's name might be more than just a label. A solid place target at 4/1.

show8Girl ByeML 10/1

Girl Bye (8) is a genuine value inclusion at 10/1 morning line, sitting with a TrackWiz rating of 63.48 — good enough for third in this field despite a double-digit price. Trainer Jeff Fletcher has Yuri Yaranga aboard, and in a deep eleven-horse field where chaos is always possible on the turf, getting a 63-rated horse at 10/1 to show is the kind of play that adds up over time.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 11 runners

The first three races are free for all TrackWiz readers, and they happen to be where the turf party kicks off. New Ways to Dream tops our card in the opening Starter Allowance at 5 furlongs on the turf, carrying a TrackWiz rating of 87.08 at a fair 3/1 morning line. Race 2 brings another 5-furlong turf sprint with Mornin' Boss at the same odds and identical rating — a potential pace angle worth watching if the two races set up similarly. Race 3 stretches the field out to a mile on the turf, where Fifth Gear (4/1 ML) is our top selection — a horse whose rating of 77.82 is a tick lower, which tells us this one is closer and could offer a bit more value if the price drifts up toward post time.

The common thread across all three free races is turf form — if you've noticed any early speed bias developing on the Mountaineer turf today, that's a key overlay factor for the 5-furlong sprints in Races 1 and 2. Keep an eye on how those early runners are handling the course before you lock in your tickets for Race 3.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

7:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

Fifth Gear headlines a wide-open mile turf claiming with a top rating, but Bailey's Girl offers a juicy longshot angle and the show pick comes at a monster price.

win6Fifth GearML 4/1

Fifth Gear (6) leads the field with a TrackWiz rating of 77.82, and trainer Virginia Demczyk sends out Ricardo Barrios — an experienced handler for the mile turf distance. The 4/1 morning line is fair for a horse who rates out this clearly on top, and while a 9% career win rate is modest, the overall form picture on our models says this is the right horse in this spot. A one-mile turf claiming race rewards horses that can settle and accelerate, and Fifth Gear fits that profile.

place2Pivot To The PowerML 3/1

Pivot To The Power (2) is the morning line favorite at 3/1 with a TrackWiz rating of 72.1 — the second-best number in the field. Trainer Eric R. Reed puts Charle Oliveros up, and while a 5% career win rate gives you pause, the overall rating and favorable post position make this an automatic place contender in the exotics.

show1Bailey's GirlML 15/1

Bailey's Girl (1) checks in at a massive 15/1 on the morning line despite owning the best career win percentage in the entire field at 33%. Trainer Marion L. Cuttino sends her out with Norberto Arroyo, Jr. in the irons, and a TrackWiz rating of 69.58 puts her squarely in the top half of this field. At that price, she's one of the more compelling board prices on the day.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 11 runners

Race 4

8:15 PM EDT

Claiming · 7 fur · Turf

Breezer owns the top rating in a sprawling twelve-horse turf claiming field at seven furlongs, with legitimate pace threats lurking at tasty prices underneath.

win6BreezerML 5/2

Breezer (6) is our TrackWiz top pick with a field-best rating of 87.81, making this the most statistically dominant runner in a deep field. Trainer Jeff Fletcher sends out Yuri Yaranga, and at 5/2 on the morning line, the public has already identified this horse as a deserving favorite. The 12% career win rate is on the lower end, but in a twelve-horse claiming field at seven furlongs on the turf — a genuine test of stamina and pace judgment — the overall rating advantage is hard to dismiss.

place4AlignML 9/2

Align (4) rates second in the field at 69.34 and is trained by the active Jay P. Bernardini barn, which has multiple runners on the card today. Elijah Greenidge gets the mount at a comfortable 9/2 on the morning line, and a seven-furlong turf test should suit a horse that profiles as a strong closer. An 11% career win rate is consistent, and with Breezer likely drawing attention, Align could sneak into the exotics.

show10Don't Cross JackML 5/1

Don't Cross Jack (10) rates third in the field at 67.89 and goes postward at 5/1 — a fair price for a horse with a 19% career win rate who has looked solid by our metrics. Trainer Christopher Logston puts Alejandro Gomez, Jr. up, and from the 10-hole, a quick start will be key. In a big field with pace pressure expected, a horse with this profile can sneak to the board.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 12 runners

Race 5

8:40 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

A three-horse scramble at the top of the ratings makes this dirt mile-and-sixteenth claimer compelling, with a big overlay in the place slot and a public favorite that might not deserve to be favored.

win8Self TaughtML 3/1

Self Taught (8) tops our TrackWiz model at 87.08 — tied for the highest rating on the day — and goes postward at a very manageable 3/1. Luis Negron gets the call for trainer Juan Pablo Silva, and a 19% career win rate is solid in a claiming context. Over a mile and a sixteenth on the dirt, pace setup matters, and Self Taught's overall profile suggests a horse that can sit off the pace and come home strong.

place4Only Get'n BetterML 8/1

Only Get'n Better (4) is quietly the second-best horse in the field at a TrackWiz rating of 77.2, yet the morning line has this one at 8/1 — a significant overlay. Trainer Jay P. Bernardini puts Brandon Tapara aboard, and a 15% career win rate is respectable. If Self Taught handles the front-running duties, Only Get'n Better is positioned to benefit and hit the board at a big number.

show5He's a ShooterML 2/1

He's a Shooter (5) is the morning line second choice at 2/1 with a TrackWiz rating of 75.56, so at first glance the show price won't excite bettors. That said, trainer Julie Mathes has Michael Y. Pagan up, and a 22% career win rate is the best win percentage in this field by a healthy margin. This is a horse that hits the board consistently — the show spot feels like a safe harbor.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 6

9:05 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

Doom Loop enters this six-furlong dirt allowance as a heavily-backed top choice, but Candy for Cynthia runs a close second on the numbers and could challenge at every step.

win6Doom LoopML 2/1

Doom Loop (6) carries our highest TrackWiz rating in this allowance field at 88.54 and is rightly installed as the 2/1 morning line favorite. Trainer Eddie Clouston puts Deshawn L. Parker up, and in a six-furlong dirt allowance, a horse with this level of rating superiority should be difficult to beat. An 11% career win rate might give some bettors pause, but the overall model score here is the most compelling win case on the card.

place3Candy for CynthiaML 5/2

Candy for Cynthia (3) rates an impressive 81.81 on our model — second-best in the field — and trainer John R. Shuler puts Michael Y. Pagan up at a 5/2 morning line. A 16% career win rate and an average speed figure of 52 make this a legitimate threat to steal the win outright, and in a short field of seven, she should be in every exotic ticket. If Doom Loop gets into any trouble, this filly is poised to capitalize.

show2EyesonthecandyML 4/1

Eyesonthecandy (2) checks in third on our model at 68.62 and offers real value at 4/1 in what is effectively a seven-horse allowance sprint. Trainer Devan Ewell, Sr. has Kyle Gilbert in the irons, and with a 9% career win rate the win seems out of reach — but a board finish is absolutely in play. In a pace scenario where the top two could push each other, a horse with this kind of rating in a short field becomes an automatic show bet.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 7

9:30 PM EDT

Rating Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Improbable First owns the top rating going into this six-furlong dirt optional claiming, but Binging is breathing down his neck on the figures and shapes up as a lively alternative at a better price.

win6Improbable FirstML 3/1

Improbable First (6) tops the TrackWiz model at 87.08 with a 16% career win rate and the field's second-best average speed figure at 54. Trainer Juan Pablo Silva pairs him with Luis Alberto Batista — a sharp combination in this optional claiming format where horses can elect to be claimed or not. The 3/1 morning line is reasonable, and the pace scenario over six furlongs on the dirt should set up well for a horse carrying this level of rating.

place3BingingML 4/1

Binging (3) is the most interesting horse on the ticket at 4/1 — a TrackWiz rating of 78.91 that's second-best in the race, paired with the field's top average speed figure of 56. Trainer Juan Pablo Silva also trains Improbable First, giving this barn a powerful one-two punch. Luis Negron is up, and in a six-furlong dirt sprint, raw speed figures matter enormously — Binging's edge on that metric makes him a legitimate win threat, not just a place play.

show5Red HurricaneML 5/1

Red Hurricane (5) brings a 30% career win rate to the table — the highest in this field — and goes off at 5/1 morning line with trainer Christopher Logston sending out Alejandro Gomez, Jr. A TrackWiz rating of 59.32 puts this horse a tier below the top two, but that win percentage tells you this is a horse that converts when the conditions are right. In optional claiming company, horses that win often tend to keep doing so.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 8

9:55 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Alfie Solomons and Moon Factor are separated by less than a point at the top of the ratings, setting up a likely duel in this dirt sprint that could leave the door open for a closer.

win7Alfie SolomonsML 9/5

Alfie Solomons (7) edges the field with a TrackWiz rating of 88.36 — the top number among all horses on today's Mountaineer card — and is rightly installed as the 9/5 morning line favorite. Trainer Crystal Richison puts Kevin Gonzalez up for a five-and-a-half furlong dirt sprint, and a 13% career win rate is par for a claiming horse with this level of form. With an average speed figure of 53 and the field's highest model score, Alfie Solomons has the profile of a horse that should handle this company with authority.

place4Moon FactorML 5/2

Moon Factor (4) is separated from Alfie Solomons by just 0.55 rating points at 87.81 — this is essentially a photo finish at the top of our model. Trainer Angel M. Rodriguez puts Norberto Arroyo, Jr. aboard from a favorable post at 4, and an average speed figure of 54 actually tops the field. A 5/2 morning line and a 9% career win rate suggest this one is respected but could be even better than the market gives credit for.

show5Joe Don LooneyML 4/1

Joe Don Looney (5) adds depth to the exotic tickets at 4/1, carrying a TrackWiz rating of 76.38 and the field's best average speed of 55 — both metrics suggesting a horse ready to run a big race. Trainer Burton K. Sipp puts Jose A. Leon up, and a 16% career win rate is consistent. If the top two hook up early and burn each other out, Joe Don Looney has the speed to close the gap and hit the board.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

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It's a turf-heavy, value-friendly card at Mountaineer today, and TrackWiz has you covered from gate to wire. New Ways to Dream in Race 1, Mornin' Boss in Race 2, and Fifth Gear in Race 3 are your free best bets to get the day started. For the full picture — including pace angles on Doom Loop, Breezer, and Alfie Solomons, plus our exotic ticket breakdowns — subscribers can access the complete analysis right now. Head to /pricing to unlock it. Good luck out there, and bet smart.

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