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Mountaineer Picks & Predictions — August 10, 2026

August 10, 20268 racesAll Mountaineer picks

Mountaineer Park is open for business on a pleasant Monday in August — partly cloudy skies, 78°F, and conditions that set up beautifully for both the dirt and turf strips. Eight races are on the card today, and from first post to the nightcap, there's plenty to sink your teeth into.

The surface mix is one of the more interesting things about today's card. We've got five races on the dirt and three on the turf, which means pace scenarios and surface biases could play a significant role. Any time you get turf racing in August at a track like Mountaineer, it's worth paying close attention to recent form on grass — not every horse who looks good on paper translates to the green.

The headline act is Race 8, where Ember sits as the morning-line favorite at 8/5 and carries our highest TrackWiz rating on the card at 89.12. But there's real intrigue sprinkled throughout — a maiden special weight on the turf in Race 2, a pair of claiming sprints on the dirt, and an allowance spot in Race 7 that figures to draw one of the stronger fields of the afternoon.

Best Bets

Race 1

11:00 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Bodyslam owns the class edge in this 6-furlong dirt claimer, but Rescue Five lurks at a price and the top three in our ratings are separated by just 14 points — don't sleep on a pace duel opening the door.

win3BodyslamML 5/2

Bodyslam is the clear top-rated horse in this field with a TrackWiz rating of 87.81, the best number by a comfortable margin over the next two contenders. Bailey Weatherly gets the call, and with an average speed figure of 53 — ticking above most rivals — this horse figures to have plenty of run at the top of the stretch. Trainer Robert S. Scallan puts a horse in position to fire at a fair 5/2 morning line, making Bodyslam our confident win selection in the opener.

place6Rescue FiveML 4/1

Rescue Five opens at 4/1 on the morning line yet carries a TrackWiz rating of 75.00, the second-best number in the field and only a whisker behind Bodyslam's top mark. Trainer Carmelo Ortiz-Ruiz sends Kevin Gonzalez to the irons, a strong pairing, and a 12% career win rate gives this horse a solid baseline of competitiveness. At those odds, Rescue Five represents genuine value in exacta and place-pool construction.

show1You Are AwesomeML 2/1

You Are Awesome is the public's favorite at 2/1 and carries a 74.17 rating, just behind the top two, giving it a legitimate shot to hit the board even if it can't quite match the top picks at this level. The Gilbert barn — trainer Julia Gilbert, jockey Kyle Gilbert — is a tight family operation that tends to know when a horse is ready. A 6% career win rate is modest, but show tickets at short chalk can still make sense in exotics.

Race 2

11:25 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Turf

A wide-open maiden special weight on the turf mile with zero career wins across the entire field — anything can happen, but Broken Sound's rating stands above the crowd while the morning-line favorite Turn Him Loose could shape the pace.

win1Broken SoundML 9/2

Broken Sound tops the TrackWiz ratings in this maiden turf field at 84.90, a meaningful gap above the next tier, and trainer Alexis Cordero-Lopez saddles this horse with Luis Negron up at a generous 9/2 morning line. In a maiden special weight going a full mile on grass, rating dominance matters — Broken Sound's edge over rivals like Fiction and Turn Him Loose suggests the underlying form profile is strong. With no career wins to lean on for any horse in this race, the highest-rated runner at double-digit odds is exactly where you want to start.

place9Turn Him LooseML 2/1

Turn Him Loose opens as the 2/1 morning-line favorite, and while that makes it the public's top choice, our rating of 77.40 places it second in the field — a credible contender but not a runaway standout. The horse shows an average speed figure of 54, tied for best in the race, and trainer Juan A. Lopez sends Charle Oliveros to the gate. If the favorite handles the turf distance and gets a clean trip at a mile, it should be fighting for second at minimum.

show4FictionML 4/1

Fiction checks in with a 77.16 TrackWiz rating — essentially a dead heat with Turn Him Loose for second-best in the field — and posts an average speed figure of 54 as well, matching the top figures in the race. Trainer Jami C. Poole saddles Elijah Greenidge at a fair 4/1 morning line, offering genuine overlay potential relative to the ratings. In a wide-open maiden turf sprint, having Fiction underneath in trifectas and exactas at that price is a smart construction angle.

Race 3

11:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 fur · Turf

My Balboa brings the best numbers and an elite 21% career win rate into a 5-furlong turf claiming field, but Cascabel and Mr Business have the speed figures to keep it honest — this race has pace-duel potential with multiple runners boasting identical top speed marks.

win4My BalboaML 7/2

My Balboa is the standout in this field with an 86.35 TrackWiz rating and a 21% career win percentage — that win rate is head and shoulders above most rivals in a claiming field. Kevin Gonzalez pilots for trainer Jennifer A. Johnson, and with an average speed figure of 55 that matches the fastest horses on the board, the form profile is hard to dismiss. At 7/2 on the morning line, this is solid value for what projects as the class of the field.

place3CascabelML 9/2

Cascabel rates second in the field at 73.92 and also clocks an average speed figure of 55 — identical to the top performers — giving Humberto Haldar a horse with real live speed on this 5-furlong turf sprint. Trainer Jose Luna Silva keeps Cascabel sharp, and a 9% career win rate in claiming company is workmanlike. If the pace gets hot upfront, Cascabel's raw speed gives it the profile to be picking up pieces late at 9/2.

show2Mr BusinessML 3/1

Mr Business sits third in our ratings at 66.01 and posts a 53 average speed figure for trainer Jay P. Bernardini — a barn that knows how to place horses in spots they can win. Brandon Tapara rides, and at 3/1 on the morning line, the public isn't sleeping on this one either. In a compact 5-furlong turf sprint where pace can compress the finish, Mr Business belongs in your exotic tickets.

We're giving all readers a look at the first three races today, and they make for a solid foundation to start the card. Bodyslam opens things up in Race 1, a 6-furlong dirt claimer, carrying a TrackWiz rating of 87.81 at a fair 5/2 morning line — this is the kind of horse you want to key in early exotics. Race 2 moves to the turf for a maiden special weight at a mile, where Broken Sound (9/2 ML, 84.90 rating) catches our eye in what figures to be a wide-open affair. Maiden turf routes are notoriously tricky to handicap, so that morning line may underestimate the chaos — keep your tickets manageable.

Race 3 stays on the grass for a 5-furlong turf claimer, and My Balboa (7/2 ML, 86.35 rating) is the one to beat in a short field that should set up a clean pace scenario for a closer to pounce. The partly-cloudy conditions and mild temperatures today are about as ideal as it gets for turf racing — no concerns about a firmness shift or a compromised course.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

12:15 AM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 fur · Turf

Crime Lord dominates the TrackWiz ratings in this maiden claiming turf sprint, but a large field of 12 first-time or maiden runners creates chaos — finding the exacta underneath could be more valuable than the win bet alone.

win2Crime LordML 3/1

Crime Lord is the clear top-rated horse in this 12-horse maiden claimer at 87.08, which is by far the best number in the field — the next closest, Forever Valiant, sits nearly 22 points back. Trainer Juan Pablo Silva sends Jose A. Leon to the irons at a fair 3/1 morning line, and with an average speed figure of 53 that places him in the top tier of this field, the talent edge is real. In a maiden claiming event with zero career wins across the board, a horse that grades this far ahead on our model should be used confidently on top.

place6Forever ValiantML 5/2

Forever Valiant is the second-highest-rated horse in the field at 65.79 for trainer Jason Uelmen, and Ricardo Barrios takes the mount at a 5/2 morning line that reflects public respect. With an average speed figure of 53 — matching Crime Lord — Forever Valiant has the raw tools to compete, and a second-place finish would be very much in play if Crime Lord opens up a gap. In a Maiden Claiming event where class sorting is tricky, Forever Valiant's profile makes it the most logical place horse.

show10BriarcliffML 7/2

Briarcliff rates third in our TrackWiz model at 59.79 and posts an average speed figure of 51 for the Ramgeet barn — Andrew R. Ramgeet riding for trainer Tina Ramgeet is a familiar pairing at this level. At 7/2 on the morning line, the public has some respect for this one, and in a field where chaos is likely, having a stablemate-trained, experienced-looking duo on a horse with a solid rating makes for a sensible show play. Briarcliff is worth including underneath in trifectas to navigate the wide-open bottom of this big field.

Race 5

12:40 AM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A loaded dirt-mile claiming battle with three horses within four rating points of each other at the top — Sweet Talia, Harlan's Legacy, and Stolen Kisses all bring serious credentials, making this one of the most competitive races on the card.

win8Sweet TaliaML 2/1

Sweet Talia tops our ratings at 87.33 and opens at 2/1 on the morning line — deservedly so. Trainer Robert S. Scallan, who also has Bodyslam firing in Race 1, keeps the barn hot, and Maikol Vilchez takes the mount. A 9% career win rate might read modest, but the average speed figure of 50 pairs with a top TrackWiz number that suggests the form has been better than the record shows. Expect Sweet Talia to be a major factor going a mile on the dirt.

place1Harlan's LegacyML 7/2

Harlan's Legacy is just a razor-thin 86.35 rating behind the top pick and carries an impressive 17% career win percentage for trainer John T. Brown — a consistent performer at this level. Bailey Weatherly rides, and at 7/2 morning line odds, there's real value here relative to the horse's record and rating. If the pace sets up for closers at a mile, Harlan's Legacy profiles as the most likely to get up for second or better.

show3Stolen KissesML 5/2

Stolen Kisses is third in our ratings at 84.16 but brings the best career win percentage of the top three at 18% — this is a horse that knows how to finish. Kyle Gilbert rides for trainer John T. Brown, giving Brown two bullets in the same race with Harlan's Legacy, a strong positional advantage. At 5/2 morning line, Stolen Kisses is hard to leave off your exotic tickets in what shapes as a very short-priced, tightly bunched top three.

Race 6

1:05 AM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Spuns Kitten and Prince Jeremy are dead-locked at the top of the class hierarchy in this 6-furlong dirt claimer, setting up a potential speed duel that could leave room for Giacomo Casanova to swoop late.

win1Spuns KittenML 7/2

Spuns Kitten leads our ratings at 86.35 with an 18% career win rate — strong numbers for a claiming runner — and draws post 1 with Michael Y. Pagan aboard for trainer John R. Shuler. The average speed figure of 53 is competitive with the top of this field, and the win percentage signals this horse has shown the ability to close out races consistently. At 7/2 on the morning line, Spuns Kitten is a genuine overlay relative to the ratings edge it holds.

place2Prince JeremyML 2/1

Prince Jeremy opens as the 2/1 morning-line public choice and backs that up with an 80.74 TrackWiz rating and a field-best 20% career win rate — this is a horse that converts opportunities. Kevin Gonzalez rides for trainer Denis Cluley, and the 53 average speed figure matches the top tier. Even if Spuns Kitten has the slight class edge in our model, Prince Jeremy's win percentage makes it a must-include for place and exacta purposes.

show5Giacomo CasanovaML 5/2

Giacomo Casanova rates third at 68.01 and gives trainer J. Michael Baird a live contender at 5/2 on the morning line with Guillermo Rodriguez in the irons. The 11% career win rate is workmanlike, and with an average speed figure of 52, this horse sits just off the top two in raw speed — close enough to be competitive if the front runners set a hot pace. In a six-furlong sprint where pace can matter, Casanova is the logical pace beneficiary if the top two hook up early.

Race 7

1:30 AM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

The allowance feature shapes up as a two-horse battle at the top — Zealous Storm and Abundant Energy are separated by just 1.4 rating points, but Abundant Energy's eye-popping 53% career win rate is the number that jumps off the page.

win1Zealous StormML 3/1

Zealous Storm sits atop our ratings at 87.08 with an outstanding 40% career win rate — that's an elite number in any company, let alone an allowance field. Humberto Haldar takes the mount for trainer Juan Pablo Silva, and an average speed figure of 53 is consistent with the top contenders in the race. At 3/1 on the morning line, Zealous Storm offers value relative to its dominant win percentage and top rating, making it our selection to take down the allowance feature.

place7Abundant EnergyML 7/2

Abundant Energy has a 53% career win rate — the most staggering number on the entire card today — and a 85.68 TrackWiz rating that is essentially a dead heat with Zealous Storm at the top. Trainer Eddie Clouston sends Luis Alberto Batista to the irons at 7/2, and the 54 average speed figure is the highest in the race. The case for making Abundant Energy the win pick is legitimate, and the reason it slots here is purely the razor-thin ratings gap — don't be surprised if this one beats our top pick.

show2Out of CentsML 4/1

Out of Cents checks in at 71.52 on our ratings with a solid 22% career win rate for trainer Eddie Clouston — who also saddles Abundant Energy, giving the barn a strong two-pronged attack in this allowance. Joe Stokes rides, and at 4/1 morning line, the third-best rating in a quality allowance field offers real show-pool value. In exotics, using Out of Cents as your safety net beneath the two top-rated horses is a sensible structure.

Race 8

1:55 AM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Ember dominates the nightcap on paper with a race-high 89.12 rating and opens as the 8/5 favorite in a wide-bodied 10-horse dirt-mile claimer — the question is whether the public price offers enough value or if Gold Buckle and Chopped can close the gap.

win9EmberML 8/5

Ember is the top-rated horse on the entire card today at 89.12 and opens at 8/5 as the deserved favorite. Trainer Jay P. Bernardini sends Brandon Tapara to the irons — a confident assignment — and a 20% career win rate backs up the notion that this horse knows how to close things out. At a mile on the dirt, Ember's profile suggests it should be controlling the pace scenario or sitting just off it, ready to pounce in the stretch.

place10Gold BuckleML 3/1

Gold Buckle opens at 3/1 with a 65.42 TrackWiz rating and a 13% career win rate, giving trainer Shane M. Spiess a live contender in a spot where the favorite draws a lot of attention and money. Luis Alberto Batista rides, fresh off his assignment in Race 7, and the average speed figure of 50 is consistent with this field. If Ember doesn't fire at its short price, Gold Buckle is well-positioned to pick up the pieces for second.

show6ChoppedML 5/1

Chopped comes in at 59.17 on our ratings with an 11% career win rate and Ricardo Barrios in the saddle for trainer Virginia Demczyk. At 5/1 on the morning line, this is a horse with enough natural ability to sneak into the exacta or trifecta in a 10-horse field where pace could get complicated. The 51 average speed figure keeps Chopped within striking range of the leaders, making it a logical third horse to include in your nightcap trifecta tickets.

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Today's Mountaineer card offers a genuinely fun mix of surfaces and conditions, with Ember standing out as the marquee play in Race 8 and the opening trio giving free-access readers a solid head start. If you want the full picture — pace projections, exotic tickets, and every edge we've found across all 8 races — the complete TrackWiz breakdown is waiting for you. Good luck at the windows.

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