Daily Picks

Mountaineer Picks & Predictions — July 7, 2026

Tuesday, July 7, 20268 racesMountaineer

It's a soggy Tuesday at Mountaineer Park as rain moves through the Ohio Valley, pushing temperatures to a sticky 80°F. The wet stuff is going to play a major role today — expect a sealed or muddy dirt surface that rewards horses who can handle the off-going, and keep a close eye on any late scratches from the turf events. When Mountaineer goes wet, the pace scenarios shift quickly and pace-pressing types often get a bigger edge than usual.

We've got an 8-race card to break down, mixing Claiming and Maiden Claiming sprints with a couple of turf tests and a Ratings Handicap that shapes up as the day's most intriguing race. The TrackWiz model has strong opinions across the board — three full breakdowns are free for everyone, with five more behind the paywall for subscribers who want the complete edge.

Best Bets

Race 1

11:00 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A clear two-horse battle shapes up at the top of this 5½-furlong dirt claimer, with Gavea and Speighty War well clear of a muddled mid-pack — the race comes down to which of the top-rated duo can get position early.

win5GaveaML 7/2

Gavea is our top selection here and it's hard to argue with a TrackWiz rating of 86.35 — the best mark in the field by a comfortable margin. What really stands out is the 27% career win rate, which leads all nine starters and signals a horse that consistently shows up when it matters. Trainer Juan Pablo Silva also saddles Joe Phillips in this same race, suggesting the barn is live here, and at 7/2 on the morning line there's still some value to be had. Gavea looks like the horse to beat in a race that doesn't have a clear pace scenario complicating things.

place3Speighty WarML 2/1

Speighty War is the morning-line favorite at 2/1 and posts a solid TrackWiz rating of 83.39, making this a legitimate two-horse top of the race. The Kevin Gonzalez-Terry Crago combination is worth noting, and a 20% career win rate gives Speighty War enough punch to threaten late. If Gavea gets any trouble leaving the gate or the pace scenario doesn't set up perfectly, Speighty War should be right there to capitalize.

show4Joe Don LooneyML 5/1

Joe Don Looney sneaks into our show spot with the highest average speed figure in the field at 57 and a TrackWiz rating of 64.48 that's a meaningful step ahead of the rest of the pack below the top two. Francisco Garcia gets the mount and this horse profiles as a pace-presser who could steal a piece at 5/1 if the top two burn each other up on the front end. A useful inclusion in trifecta tickets.

Race 2

11:25 PM EDT

Claiming · 7 1/2 fur · Turf

A massive 14-horse turf field at 7½ furlongs makes sorting difficult, but El Ondeado stands apart on the numbers and figures to be controlling the pace conversation from the jump.

win5El OndeadoML 3/1

El Ondeado leads all horses in this field with a TrackWiz rating of 87.08 — a number that stands well above the nearest challengers — and the morning line of 3/1 reflects that the market already knows it. Trainer Denis Cluley sends this one out with Kevin Gonzalez in the irons, and a 20% career win rate suggests El Ondeado is no stranger to the winner's circle. In a wide-open field, having the top-rated horse at a price that still offers some value is exactly the kind of spot TrackWiz analysis targets.

place11Bustin UpML 5/1

Bustin Up draws our place call with a rating of 76.05, the second-best mark in the field, and at 5/1 morning line this horse represents a sneaky strong value in the exacta underneath El Ondeado. Trainer Juan C. Vazquez puts Michael Pagan aboard, and a 14% career win rate in what is a highly competitive claiming turf environment says this horse earns its way into contention. The slightly longer 7½-furlong trip on grass could suit a horse that likes to settle and run late.

show7Old FlagML 4/1

Old Flag checks in at a 64.31 TrackWiz rating and gets strong backing from the Juan Pablo Silva barn, which also sends out Tap Em — suggesting Silva is genuinely targeting the top spots here. Jockey Jose A. Leon takes the call, and at 4/1 morning line there's enough price here to make Old Flag a reasonable show bet and key in the trifecta. The 13% career win rate is modest, but in a 14-horse turf field where chaos is likely, having a Silva horse on your ticket makes sense.

Race 3

11:50 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 fur · Turf

A maiden claiming sprint on the turf with a full field of non-winners — these races are notoriously difficult, but Il Principado's figure stands out sharply and gives handicappers a clear anchor.

win7Il PrincipadoML 2/1

Il Principado earns the top spot on our TrackWiz analysis with a rating of 82.77 — the highest mark in a field where most horses are closely bunched in the 24-65 range — and the 2/1 morning line suggests this is widely recognized as the class of the race. The 55 average speed figure is also the best posted by any horse with a recorded figure in the field, a meaningful edge in a 5-furlong turf sprint where early punch matters. Jorge A. Monserrate Jr. takes the mount for trainer Alexis Cordero-Lopez, and this combination has the look of a horse that's been pointed right at this spot.

place10Forever ValiantML 3/1

Forever Valiant draws our place call with a 65.16 TrackWiz rating and a 3/1 morning line that indicates the market sees this as one of the primary challengers to the top pick. Ricardo Barrios gets the ride for trainer Jason Uelmen, and the 52 average speed figure is solid for this level. In maiden claiming turf events, the second-best horse by the numbers often hits the board even when the top pick runs away with it.

show2Decorated WarriorML 8/1

Decorated Warrior at 8/1 is the value inclusion for our show spot, posting a 59.02 TrackWiz rating that's third-best in the field and carrying an average speed figure matching several horses rated far below it. Bailey Weatherly picks up the mount for trainer Marion Cuttino, and there's a case to be made this horse is sitting beneath the radar at double-digit odds in what shapes up as a three-horse top. A useful addition to trifecta tickets as a live price.

The first three races are unlocked and they cover a nice cross-section of today's card. Gavea opens the day in a 5½-furlong Dirt Claiming sprint — a surface and distance where our ratings model loves her 86.35 score given the wet conditions. Then we shift to the turf for Races 2 and 3, where El Ondeado (87.08, 3/1 morning line) and Il Principado (82.77, 2/1) headline their respective fields. Here's the caveat: with rain in the forecast, track officials may take the turf off the table entirely. If either turf race gets moved to the dirt, revisit those picks carefully — surface switches scramble the form book in a hurry.

The through-line connecting all three free picks is class positioning. Gavea, El Ondeado, and Il Principado all project as the most accomplished horses in their fields at competitive prices — none are heavy chalk, and the wet track could open the door for a bit of extra value at the windows.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

12:15 AM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 fur · Turf

Another wide-open maiden claiming turf sprint, this time with a monstrous 14-horse field — but Have a Happy's rating towers over the competition and sets up as a potential single in multi-race sequences.

win13Have a HappyML 3/1

Have a Happy is our clear top selection here with a TrackWiz rating of 87.08 — the highest figure posted in this race by a wide margin — and trainer Juan Carlos Gotera sends this one out at 3/1 on the morning line with Luis Alberto Batista aboard. In a maiden field full of horses rated below 60, a rating pushing 90 is about as dominant a top-figure edge as you'll find at this level. Despite a modest 49 average speed figure, the overall profile is compelling enough to make this horse a logical single in doubles and Pick 3s.

place14CharthenaML 5/1

Charthena draws our place call with a 59.22 TrackWiz rating — a clear step ahead of much of this field — and Bailey Weatherly gets the assignment for trainer Donald Blankenship. The 51 average speed figure is competitive for this distance and surface combination. At 5/1 morning line, Charthena offers enough value in the exacta underneath Have a Happy to make the combination worth playing.

show2GordaML 2/1

Gorda carries the second-lowest morning line in the field at 2/1, which suggests public money is tracking this one despite a 52.35 TrackWiz rating that lands solidly in the mid-range. The 52 average speed figure is on par with several other mid-pack runners, but trainer Robert Inman and Charle Oliveros have reason to believe this horse is ready. Use Gorda as the third leg of trifecta tickets where Have a Happy and Charthena lead.

Race 5

12:40 AM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

A six-furlong dirt allowance that looks like a two-horse race on the numbers, but don't sleep on the mid-field — the pace setup on dirt at this distance can shuffle the order quickly.

win2Connect the DotsML 4/1

Connect the Dots is our top selection in this allowance with a TrackWiz rating of 85.62, the highest mark in the field, and a career win rate of 33% that absolutely pops off the page — one of the best win percentages on today's entire card. Trainer Anthony Farrior sends this horse out at 4/1 morning line with Luis Raul Rivera taking the mount, and a 54 average speed figure gives Connect the Dots genuine tactical speed to work with over six furlongs of dirt. At allowance level the class question is always present, but the numbers here suggest this horse belongs and is ready to run.

place4Ante AntmanML 10/1

Ante Antman is our value play in the place spot, posting a 66.43 TrackWiz rating and a 53 average speed figure that keeps this horse in the pace conversation on a six-furlong dirt track. Kevin Gonzalez takes the mount for trainer Denis Cluley, and a 20% career win rate is respectable in allowance company. The 10/1 morning line makes Ante Antman a compelling exacta partner — if Connect the Dots wins, getting Ante Antman underneath at double digits is solid value.

show7Giacomo CasanovaML 15/1

Giacomo Casanova looks like a deep value inclusion at 15/1 morning line, and the 56.81 TrackWiz rating actually gives this horse a legitimate edge over a handful of shorter-priced competitors including Rhodes and One Step Beyond. Angel Diaz rides for trainer J. Michael Baird, who also has a solid presence at Mountaineer. In a race where the top two in our analysis should be prominent, sprinkling Giacomo Casanova in trifecta slots at a generous price could pay off nicely.

Race 6

1:05 AM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A short six-horse maiden claiming field on dirt where the top two horses in the ratings are separated from the rest by a wide margin — this race has the look of a two-horse show.

win4All Roads to DenisML 2/1

All Roads to Denis tops the TrackWiz ratings in this race with an 88.54 — the highest figure not just in this field but among the top marks on today's entire card. Charle Oliveros gets aboard for trainer Angelo Jackson, who also runs Breadman'shoneybun in the same race, a sign the barn is attacking this card aggressively. The 52 average speed figure leads the field among horses with recorded figures, and at 2/1 morning line this is the kind of single you can build multi-leg tickets around with confidence.

place1The Groom's JulML 9/5

The Groom's Jul is right on the heels of our top pick with an 83.55 TrackWiz rating and actually carries a slightly lower morning line at 9/5, making this the public's early choice. Trainer Devan Ewell Jr. saddles both this horse and Midnight Stroller in the same race, giving the barn two shots at the board. Agustin Bracho gets the mount and while the 51 average speed figure is a tick below All Roads to Denis, the overall profile is strong enough for a confident place wager.

show2Midnight StrollerML 6/1

Midnight Stroller rounds out our selections with a 69.07 TrackWiz rating that separates it clearly from the bottom half of this field. Trainer Devan Ewell Jr. running this horse alongside The Groom's Jul is a notable stable angle — barns don't enter multiple horses in the same race without confidence in both. At 6/1 morning line, Midnight Stroller is the kind of overlay that belongs in trifecta boxes whenever the top two finishers are uncertain.

Race 7

1:30 AM EDT

Ratings Handicap · 6 fur · Dirt

A competitive ratings handicap at six furlongs on dirt where four horses are tightly bunched near the top of the figures — pace could be contested early, which opens the door for a closer to swoop in late.

win8Game Boy BennyML 5/1

Game Boy Benny is our top pick here with a TrackWiz rating of 84.17 — best in the field — and the 5/1 morning line provides legitimate value in what looks like a wide-open spot. Brandon Tapara rides for Jay P. Bernardini, who also enters Colonel Poppy, suggesting the barn has a strong opinion about which of the two is the main player. A 19% career win rate and a 53 average speed figure round out a profile that points to a horse sitting just below the radar in a field where casual bettors may gravitate toward shorter-priced horses.

place5MisterchilliwilliML 3/1

Misterchilliwilli grabs our place spot with the second-best rating in the field at 76.31 and a career win rate of 29% that leads all nine starters — this horse knows how to win. Yuri Yaranga rides for trainer Jeff Fletcher and the 54 average speed figure matches up well with the front-runners in this field. At 3/1 morning line, Misterchilliwilli is a logical win contender in its own right and a strong place play if Game Boy Benny draws out the pace.

show6Atlantic FirestormML 5/2

Atlantic Firestorm rounds out our analysis with a 75.50 TrackWiz rating and the highest average speed figure in the race at 55 — a stat that carries real weight in a six-furlong dirt sprint where the early fractions matter. Norberto Arroyo Jr. gets the call for trainer Sydney Rotunno, and a 23% career win rate confirms this is a horse with finishing ability. At 5/2 morning line the price is short, but the speed figure edge makes Atlantic Firestorm a must-use in trifecta combinations.

Race 8

1:55 AM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

The route distance of one mile on dirt tightens the field considerably, and three horses — Wynn Giant, Jonny Quist, and Jazz With Denis — tower above the rest on the TrackWiz ratings to set up a potential trifecta of big-number runners.

win6Wynn GiantML 3/1

Wynn Giant leads our analysis with a TrackWiz rating of 87.08 — the top mark in the field — and the 3/1 morning line reflects justified confidence in this horse's ability to handle the one-mile trip on dirt. Michael Pagan rides for trainer Juan C. Vazquez, a productive combination at Mountaineer, and a 17% career win rate is serviceable in a claiming route field that lacks a truly dominant speed presence. The pace scenario at a mile often favors horses that can rate behind the leaders and kick late, and Wynn Giant's profile fits that mold.

place2Jonny QuistML 2/1

Jonny Quist checks in at 85.83 on the TrackWiz scale and draws the morning-line favoritism at 2/1, suggesting the public is squarely behind this one even as we slot it second. Luis Negron is aboard for trainer Juan Pablo Silva, who is active throughout today's card and clearly has horses ready to fire. A 13% career win rate is the one note of caution, but at a mile the class and figure edge Jonny Quist carries over most of the field is hard to dismiss.

show10Jazz With DenisML 5/1

Jazz With Denis brings a 81.46 TrackWiz rating and an eye-catching 33% career win rate — the highest of any horse on today's full card among horses with meaningful experience — making this a compelling show ticket inclusion at 5/1. Alejandro Gomez rides for trainer Moises Valdez, and while the 51 average speed figure is slightly below the top two, the win percentage alone signals a horse with a knack for finding the board. In a three-horse trifecta play, Jazz With Denis completes what could be a very lucrative ticket if the top ratings hold up.

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Bottom line: Mountaineer is dealing wet today, and that single factor could flip results across the entire card. Gavea, El Ondeado, and Il Principado are your free best bets to get started, but the real edge is in Races 4–8 — especially All Roads to Denis and the Ratings Handicap pace setup. Subscribe to TrackWiz for the complete picture before first post.

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